Making the next xbox driveless

beniah

beniah

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So I've given the next xbox a little thought. Though I'm not too worried about what MS chooses at this point for the optical media drive, I've been thinking "why have one anyway?"

I suppose we really need it because our internet infrastructure is not up to snuff for pure digital downloads. Beyond that, if you want to compete as a one stop multi-media device, your system has to be able to play HD films, by which I mean Blu Ray.

However, I think there is still room for a proprietary game format and the possiblity of forgoing an optical drive for movies.

The wii cannot play regular DVDs, but it is still selling remarkably well. To be even cheaper, the next 360 could simply choose not to be an optical media player and develop a propietary data system for gaming that uses large memory cards/sticks that are difficult to hack. This way you still give people the option who want a hard media or don't have the requisite high speed internet service to download a 10 to 20 gig game. This also prolongs the life of brick and mortar stores and lets people trade or sell back their games.

This plus a digital download system (and a massive hard drive) would be a great interim step before all gaming goes digital. If MS and publishers can knock of 5$ or 10$ for a digital download it would be a good incentive and keep people from buying used games (which often only saves 5$ or 10$ for the customer anyway) which delivers more profit to the publisher.

Still, there is a hole for those who want to own high def films. I'm not sure what to do about it, but you certainly can cut costs by not having an optical media drive- I'm always down for a cheaper system. No drive also translates into fewer repairs and break downs for the customer. Is it worth it to have a cheaper system, or do people really need that high def player? I personally don't mind renting movies on XBL- and if I could stream all of Netflix's catalog I'd probably never pay for a movie again...but I also have high speed internet.

This is all to say that MS needs to avoid Blu-Ray. I don't know if I agree with that sentiment, but I also don't think it is inevitable. There is room to maneuver in my mind. What do you guys think?
 
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Discs aren't going out of style yet. Blu ray is the future of gaming, in my opinion.

That being said, they need to have a disc changer in the "NextBox"
 
I'll be damned if I am going to stand for d/l a full damn game and then wait a bunch more for it to save to disk only to have the xBox die and then have to buy it again or do the whole process over. fuck that.
 
Yeah, I keep hearing people talk about streaming and digital distribution being "the next thing", but I just don't see that happening for AT LEAST 10-15 years. There are so many areas where high speed still isn't available. I pay $45 a month for a 10GB connection, and STILL have times when Netflix streaming is terrible, or I have to pause Youtube videos so they'll play all the way through. Or times when the connection just goes down for no apparent reason. ISP's are not ready to be relied on as society's main source of entertainment.

Add on top of that, some ISP's are starting to cap bandwidth for users, and I just don't see a non-physical medium being a viable option for quite some time. At least it will give them time to sort out the piracy vs DRM issue too, because I think that would just be a huge freaking train wreck if everything was hard drive based. Personally, I prefer discs...especially Blu-Ray, which actually provides the durability that people claimed CDs had 25 years ago. Aside from space issues, I don't really understand why everybody is so anxious to have thousands of dollars worth of entertainment just floating around in a non-tangible form.
 
I just downloaded Burnout Paradise on my PS3 and I had to re-download it 3 times at 12 hours per download.

Digital distribution just isn't ready right now and won't be until cheaper, faster internet is available for everyone.
 
[quote name='beniah']Still, there is a hole for those who want to own high def films. I'm not sure what to do about it, but you certainly can cut costs by not having an optical media drive- I'm always down for a cheaper system. No drive also translates into fewer repairs and break downs for the customer. Is it worth it to have a cheaper system, or do people really need that high def player? I personally don't mind renting movies on XBL- and if I could stream all of Netflix's catalog I'd probably never pay for a movie again...but I also have high speed internet.[/quote]

I also want to touch on this point. I think MS trying to avoid Blu-Ray just because rival Sony invented it is a huge mistake. In a few years when digital television is the standard, HDTVs are just TVs, and the majority of the country is finally moving into "Next Gen Entertainment", Blu-Ray will just be "buying a movie". Nobody will care that it was Sony's baby. At this point, does anybody care who created DVD? Or even VHS? It's just what society has accepted as the next way to store entertainment.

If Microsoft steers away from it out of spite, they'll be shooting themselves in the foot. Also, it seems like one of the biggest factors in your argument is cost. By the time the next Xbox system comes out, the cost of producing a BR drive will have dropped significantly. The PS3 is probably the worst case we've ever seen in terms of timing and new technology. The amount of new tech that went into the PS3 was really unprecedented.

In 3-5 years (presumably when the next Xbox will be in heavy development), this technology will really only have begun to be utilized. It should be cheaper at that point and easier to develop for. I don't know if that means we'll ever see a return of the $199 launch system, but I don't think we'll ever see a $600 system again either. But getting rid of the optical drive just for the sake of reducing cost shouldn't be necessary.
 
To be even cheaper, the next 360 could simply choose not to be an optical media player and develop a propietary data system for gaming that uses large memory cards/sticks that are difficult to hack.
Click to expand...

How would that be cheaper? Flash memory devices are many many times more expensive to produce than discs of any kind.
Way less practical as well.


Discs and case/manuals are very cheap to produce and there are still a very big market for them by people who wants a physical product rather than fully digital.
Companies know this so they wont get rid of it anytime soon.

Sure there are people like you OP that don't need a optical drive to watch movies or need the physical copy of a game, but your definitely in the minority.
Next xbox will no doubt have some type of optical drive, exactly what format tho is up for grabs.
 
[quote name='VipFREAK']On top of that you can't sell you're used games and well yeah... it's just a FAIL situation.[/quote]

Well, that would be a positive for publishers. In general, they despise the used game industry because they get zero income from it. It would piss off gamers, but if we're not buying games new, why should the publishers care? It would also put Gamestop out of business, haha.
 
--Broadband isn't fast enough to make this worthwhile
--Fios won't be standard yet
--fast internet at home is a luxury most people don't have
--and a million other complications
 
So I don't know if everyone replying read the post- I'm not saying the next Xbox is going to be all digital. I want to know if you think it can be something other than Blu Ray, just for the sake of conjecture. Would a new xbox sell if it couldn't play HD movies and had a new format for games?

[quote name='VipFREAK']On top of that you can't sell you're used games and well yeah... it's just a FAIL situation.[/quote]

I addressed this in the post...

I'm not talking about all or nothing digital distribution- ideally you would have the option of either a physical copy or a discount for a digital copy so you can sell or trade the game if that is your bag.

[quote name='n8rockerasu']I also want to touch on this point. I think MS trying to avoid Blu-Ray just because rival Sony invented it is a huge mistake...
If Microsoft steers away from it out of spite, they'll be shooting themselves in the foot. [/quote]

Hey Man I totally agree with you. I'm just curious to explore if they have to adopt blue ray, and if not, what is a good alternative. Maybe BR is cheap as hell by then and it won't matter, but maybe the system is cheaper w/o an optical drive. For me, cheaper is better...

[quote name='supraazn']How would that be cheaper? Flash memory devices are many many times more expensive to produce than discs of any kind. [/quote]

You probably know more about this subject than I do, but I don't see how that is possible. If MS outfitted the new xbox with a media reader and some new format for games, I can't imagine that mass production would be more costly than a high definition blu ray drive.

That is me just assuming, however.
 
I'm not talking about the cost of the flash/media reader on the console, that would probably be very cheap.
I mean the games itself on a flash memory cart such as the DS.
It's alright for the DS because most games are no bigger than 128mbs.
But we're talking 8-25gb games, and that's only in this current gen.
It is extremely impractical and expensive to sell big games on individual flash cart storage devices.
you will probably be looking at $100+, easily, for a regular game just because of the manufacturing price of the cart.

I'm just pointing out that a new format using flash storage technology is just ridiculous in it of itself.

But the ideal of a new format has just been done by Sony and their Blu-ray.
It is still an optical disc like a DVD or CD but it's still a new format, a format where the individual storage units (the disc) can be cheaply produced.
That's why the next gen console will still have some form of optical drive because it is at this current time the cheapest choice.

They are not going to make a driveless console because they make the bulk of their money off the sells of games not the sales of consoles.
So they won't alienate the HUGE number of people that dont want to do digital DLs but instead want some physical copy of their games.
Yes it would be "cheaper" to make a console without any kind of media reading device, but that will be a POS console and no one would buy it.
 
[quote name='supraazn']...

I'm just pointing out that a new format using flash storage technology is just ridiculous in it of itself.

That's why the next gen console will still have some form of optical drive because it is at this current time the cheapest choice. [/quote]

Cool- I get what you are saying. It makes sense then that Nintendo went from a cartridge to the small disc format with the gamecube. It must have been cost prohibitive to continue with a cartridge. I got the idea in the first place with the amazing drop in price for thumb drives (or geek sticks, if you will). I remember that a 32 MB drive cost last year what a 4 or 8 GB drive costs now. If that trend continues I could see a 20 Gig game fitting on one of those babies in a few years.

Still, I wonder if you absolutely have to have an optical drive. Maybe so- but in a few years...after a ton of R and D...who knows?

[quote name='supraazn']

So they won't alienate the HUGE number of people that dont want to do digital DLs but instead want some physical copy of their games.
Yes it would be "cheaper" to make a console without any kind of media reading device, but that will be a POS console and no one would buy it.[/quote]

Again, I'm saying you can both satisfy people who A. want a physical game and B. want a cheaper (digital) copy...I'm not saying everyone wants to go digital in 3 to 5 years. I think it is possible to cater to both crowds in the next gen and not be bottlenecked into using blu-ray if MS doesn't want to...for cost saving reasons.
 
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[quote name='n8rockerasu']I also want to touch on this point. I think MS trying to avoid Blu-Ray just because rival Sony invented it is a huge mistake. In a few years when digital television is the standard, HDTVs are just TVs, and the majority of the country is finally moving into "Next Gen Entertainment", Blu-Ray will just be "buying a movie".

[/quote]

I don't think they are avoiding it because its Sony. I still don't think Blu-Rays are as household a product as everyone thought they would be. They're just too damn expensive. I don't know sales figures, I'm sure they're doing okay with no competition, but I certainly know plenty of folks that would rather pay $15 to $20 for a new movie than $30+.
 
There's no way the next Xbox will ship without a disk drive. I imagine that you will also be able to purchase games directly through the marketplace as well buying copies from retailers though (actually I wouldn't be surprised to see that come to the 360 marketplace this year).

I love buying games on Steam and downloading them, but I would hate to see a Microsoft DD store, the games would never go on sale or have price drops. :roll:
 
[quote name='VipFREAK']On top of that you can't sell you're used games and well yeah... it's just a FAIL situation.[/quote]
BINGO!

If i'm paying $60 for a game, i want to be able to take it with me (without transporting my HDD), sell it, trade it with a friend, etc.
 
[quote name='SynGamer']BINGO!

If i'm paying $60 for a game, i want to be able to take it with me (without transporting my HDD), sell it, trade it with a friend, etc.[/quote]

Seriously...I'm really not saying this should happen with the next Xbox. I really really am not saying it. I think it is important to have the option to have a digital copy or a physical copy...it should be up to the consumer.

Maybe I didn't type my post well enough or something- I've gotten this reply three times.
 
[quote name='beniah']Seriously...I'm really not saying this should happen with the next Xbox. I really really am not saying it. I think it is important to have the option to have a digital copy or a physical copy...it should be up to the consumer.

Maybe I didn't type my post well enough or something- I've gotten this reply three times.[/quote]
Oh like others have said, we'll have the option to download games, BUT, the next Xbox WILL NOT be driveless. That would be suicide.
 
[quote name='VipFREAK']On top of that you can't sell you're used games and well yeah... it's just a FAIL situation.[/QUOTE]

That's my main complaint. Won't be able to buy used nor sell games once I'm done. I'm not sure what % of consumers care enough to factor that into a console buying decision but there must be quite a few that buy used and trade in since there are lots of B&M stores built around that.

I tend to wait until I can pick up a console and a dozen or so decent games cheap and if nothing really drops thanks to it all being digital download only...

Once you can download full games all the people that line up to pay $60 on day one will just download at Midnight and there won't be a glut of used GTA IVs to bring the value down in a few months. Bummer.
 
digital download.. no thanks... I'm already at the line with downloaded arcade game...

even if I bought a game for $30.. after I'm done with it, I like to be able to trade it or sell it for $10 or something..

I would quit gaming all together... yea i'm serious.. if this happens...
 
As much as I actually like to buy games on the cheap (and used games are certainly cheaper then new ones), I would love to see full digital distribution in next gen XBox. With one addition. Bring on digital game renting or pay as you play format. This way I can play any game I like at any time I like, even on the same day it's released (that would be first for me). And if I really like the game I will be more then happy to spend time (and money) on it. On the other hand, if the game is junk, I would be under no obligation to continue playing it and, therefore, would pay nothing to very little for trying it.
MS (and other console manufacturers for that matter) could introduce memberships with tiered discounts the more you play, so that it would not cost that much more for the game fanatics to continue feeding their addiction. On the other hand, this system would entice many more casual gamers to try out new games as there won't be a shock level of spending $60 (+ tax) (and yes, $60 is a lot of money for a lot of people) for the new game.
 
[quote name='Spoon_si']digital download.. no thanks... I'm already at the line with downloaded arcade game...

even if I bought a game for $30.. after I'm done with it, I like to be able to trade it or sell it for $10 or something..

I would quit gaming all together... yea i'm serious.. if this happens...[/quote]

I used to feel that way (though I prefer to keep my games), but then I started buying more and more games on Steam.

Now I pretty much only buy PC games on Steam. The only exceptions are Collector's Edition (Fallout 3 CE), games that I really want that aren't on Steam, or super cheap games from GoGamer madness sales.
 
IMO it depends on when it launches. With the current economic downturn, (I think it will be really bad for at least 1 if not 2 more years) the next xbox won't launch for 3 or 4 more years. Who knows where tech will be then and it isn't like msft won't push the boundries and exclude some potential customers due to there inability for high speed Internet. They did it with the original xbox, you need broadband for xbox live.

As for blu ray I call bullshit. Yes it is beautiful, and sounds great. I have a ps3 and love waching blu ray movies, but I am also a graphics whore videophile. None of my friends who game own a blu ray player. They have visited and ohh and ahhd the blu ray, but no one has care enough to go buy one. The sales numbers comparing blu ray to DVD are also showing the big drop off in sales. As mentioned earlier, the economic downturn will not help blu ray at all this or next year. It is cheaper for 3 people to go to the movies then it is to buy a blu ray disc. Don't give me the you can get them on sale bullshit, as the avg consumer is stupid. See the cc stores clearing inventory out at 10% off msrp to prove my point.

Will it happen, who knows. I don't care either way. I am fine with dl games as I reached the point in life where I don't need to have the cases stacked up on shelves anymore. At some point it will happen, if it is the next or followig gen systems, I look forward to having Internet speeds fast enough to be able to dl everything that fast.
 
[quote name='ryanbph']IMO it depends on when it launches. With the current economic downturn, (I think it will be really bad for at least 1 if not 2 more years) the next xbox won't launch for 3 or 4 more years. Who knows where tech will be then and it isn't like msft won't push the boundries and exclude some potential customers due to there inability for high speed Internet. They did it with the original xbox, you need broadband for xbox live.

As for blu ray I call bullshit. Yes it is beautiful, and sounds great. I have a ps3 and love waching blu ray movies, but I am also a graphics whore videophile. None of my friends who game own a blu ray player. They have visited and ohh and ahhd the blu ray, but no one has care enough to go buy one. The sales numbers comparing blu ray to DVD are also showing the big drop off in sales. As mentioned earlier, the economic downturn will not help blu ray at all this or next year. It is cheaper for 3 people to go to the movies then it is to buy a blu ray disc. Don't give me the you can get them on sale bullshit, as the avg consumer is stupid. See the cc stores clearing inventory out at 10% off msrp to prove my point.

Will it happen, who knows. I don't care either way. I am fine with dl games as I reached the point in life where I don't need to have the cases stacked up on shelves anymore. At some point it will happen, if it is the next or followig gen systems, I look forward to having Internet speeds fast enough to be able to dl everything that fast.[/quote]
Actually, in economic downturns people turn to home entertainment instead of going out to the movies, cruises, vacations, etc. For example;

Using your typical family of 4, if they go to the movies (matinee) and get 2 tubs of popcorn and 2 medium drinks, you're looking at $10 for each adult and $8 for two children (on average). That's $39 just to see the movie, which is also the suggested MSRP on your average new Blu-ray movie. However, go to Walmart and you'll see Blu-ray movies regularly priced at $29.99, or about $32 with tax. That's still $7 less than going to the movies. Now lets add in $5 for each tub of popcorn and $3 for each soda, that's another $16 on top of the $39 for the movie tickets for a total of $55 to go to the movies. For about $5 more, you could buy two Blu-ray movies.

Considering Blu-ray players can be had for $199 or less and it's rumored that they'll drop as low as $99 for some models this year, and it's not that hard to see why people would choose to watch an HD movie in the comfort of their own home, knowing you own the movie and can go back and watch it whenever you want.

Another alternative is Netflix. For $9.99 a month you can get 1 Blu-ray movie out at a time with unlimited streaming to yoru PC or PC as well.
 
[quote name='SynGamer']Actually, in economic downturns people turn to home entertainment instead of going out to the movies, cruises, vacations, etc. For example;

Using your typical family of 4, if they go to the movies (matinee) and get 2 tubs of popcorn and 2 medium drinks, you're looking at $10 for each adult and $8 for two children (on average). That's $39 just to see the movie, which is also the suggested MSRP on your average new Blu-ray movie. However, go to Walmart and you'll see Blu-ray movies regularly priced at $29.99, or about $32 with tax. That's still $7 less than going to the movies. Now lets add in $5 for each tub of popcorn and $3 for each soda, that's another $16 on top of the $39 for the movie tickets for a total of $55 to go to the movies. For about $5 more, you could buy two Blu-ray movies.

Considering Blu-ray players can be had for $199 or less and it's rumored that they'll drop as low as $99 for some models this year, and it's not that hard to see why people would choose to watch an HD movie in the comfort of their own home, knowing you own the movie and can go back and watch it whenever you want.

Another alternative is Netflix. For $9.99 a month you can get 1 Blu-ray movie out at a time with unlimited streaming to yoru PC or PC as well.[/QUOTE]


I keep hearing video games are recession proof, but can someone please cite an example of when this was proved. Then please compare it to the current financial crisis and see if it still holds up. Please tell all the people that work in the game industry that have or will shortly loose there jobs how games/entertainment is recession proof.

I live in a above avg cost of living area in a costal community about 10 min from cape cod. I have never seen matinée tix for $10. I saw the dark knight at an IMAX with my wife with 2 soda's and 2 snacks and spent under $40 at an evening showing.

It is cheaper plain and simple for someone to either buy or rent a DVD. Not everyone see's the need like I do to upgrade to blu ray. Even if a player drops to $99, that is still money for someone to go out an upgrade there perfectly fine DVD player. With on demand one can easily watch an hd movie for a shitload cheaper then buying a blu ray. No it won't look as nice, but it will look fine to many people and it is cheaper with no upgrade cost.

10 years ago if someone polled people if they would switch to an mp3 format and dl them from the Internet I would imagine you would get similiar responses as we have in this thread. At some point, movies and games will be dl only. Look to steam/iTunes/psn store/xbox marketplace for the models and sucess stories.
 
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