what you want to look at in terms of "bombing", is how well the controller will sell at this advertised price. that means, how many people are looking to buy the controller at $65 (or a lower price if the play and charge kit is not included).
getting the controller with a new console does not count.
how do i put it.. its like making a light gun accessory for the Xbox 360. yes, its true that there are light gun enthusiasts that really want that sort of controller for their shooting games (or perhaps other uses), but you have to agree they would make up a niche section of 360 gamers.
a controller like this is really only targeted towards fighting game players or classic game players in my opinion (and evidently many people in this thread feel the same way).
so then, you have to rationalize it this way. even if there were a ton of fighting game players on the 360, which i'm sure there are..
- many of them have already bought fight sticks (street fighter IV, soul calibur IV, blazblue, virtua fighter, tekken 6, etc). that makes up the "more serious" FG players which is a niche audience
- the people remaining need to decide whether or not to upgrade to this new controller. considering it costs more than the game they're going to play it with (more than twice the amount in many cases), my opinion suggests to me that they would continue using the original controller, upgrade to a different pad or stick, or simply buy a PS3 (where the FG community seems to be more prominent).
- the grayscale buttons are detrimental to the controller's design, but that's a personal beef, so i won't hold it against them
- remember those special edition controllers for games like Halo 3 and COD4? the ones where all they did was change the face plate or perhaps mod a few buttons to resemble a game reference? how well did those sell? not all that well. and understandably so.. only halo 3 fans would purchase a new halo 3 themed controller, and the rest goes for other niche controllers that followed suit. now its true that this controller changes the dpad, something us 360 owners have been asking for for years. but is that really worth $65?
tl;dr just like Kinect, you have a product that will only be bought by a certain kind of gamer, one which already does not make up the majority. i just can't see how this controller can sell well at $65.
now, if down the line the controller drops to around $30, i think it would start to sell well. again, all of this is my speculation, most of it is factual, however.