terutt
CAGiversary!
Ok, I am a video game guy, and also make a living somewhat analyzing the tech industry...here goes, let the flames begin.
Sony: The slipping of the PS3 has killed them, not only from a game standpoint, but probably from a company standpoint as well it has really hurt them. Sony is in a war for the next DVD standard. Coming out this spring, and their value proposition would have been "Yes, it is expensive...but you also are getting a cheap next-generation DVD player"...pretty compelling.
But now with the schedule slip, it has hurt them in two ways. First, MS gets a big lead for next gen gaming (and the fact that the latest reports in the press seem to be "umm...PS3 games not looking much better than 360 games"). And, more importantly, it has opened the door for Toshiba to come to market with their competing DVD standard...HD DVD. If you look at how the battle lines are being drawn...content providers (movie studios) are now generally siding with the HD DVD format. The reason is (a) it is here now and provides the opportunity to immediately start re-selling movies to consumers again (b) It uses the same basic manufacturing technology as existing DVD's, where "Blu-Ray" (dumb name..tell me what it is, and not about the technology) will require a large investment by manufacturers to make the disks. (C) it is an easy transition for people, as they can watch existing DVD format on them. People will buy the player based upon what they can watch, and not the technology (hello betamax!), and so I think the DVD format war is already over.
So, instead of the value proposition being "get a great game system..and a cheap DVD player" which would have given blu-ray standard an immediate install base (as gamers bought the machine) now Sony is looking at "Get a good game system..probably not much better than our year-old competitor...and a DOA DVD format player". This is horrible news for Sony...
Here is how Sony COULD salvage all this: First, need a redesign PSP. Kill that UMD drive, put a 20 GIG HDD in it. Make sure you have good interoperability between the PSP and the PS3. Sell them as a package...with the proposition of "For $1000, you get a DVR, a way to surf the net and watch HD movies. But more importantly, it is quick and easy to synch between it and the handheld unit. Have a show you recorded on the PS3 you want to watch on vacation? Software allows you to send it from your PS3 to your PSP. Can do the same for DVD movies . " Together, make them an integrated solution. Also, have the ability to download PS1 games for $3-$5 price points onto both. Even then...I would not be shocked if the Blu-Ray standard is dead and replaced or significantly altered to be compatible with DVD/HD DVD by the time PS3 comes rolling out.
In the end, I think Sony is too dumb to do this, because they are still seeing themselves a "hardware" company instead of an entertainment company. Why the UMD? They wanted to make money from the licensing. Why push the Blu-ray? They want the licensing. In short, they want the next-gen model to give them what they got in the initial CD standard wars...it is not going to happen. They need to stop creating cool gadgets and then worrying about how folks will use them and look at what people want to do first, and back-design into that.
Outlook dim, in my opinion, for Sony...and I a big Sony fan (own all they systems...and a chunck of their stock).
MS: As a company, they have bigger issues...onslaught from Google and freeware, Vista slip, etc. So, this might get them to re-affirm their committment to the game machine, as they see it as the trojan horse to keep the MS standard in place in the home. They learned alot with the 360, and it seems to be a solid machine...although they are already learning that players are balking at $60 games. Big ups for their Xbox Arcade or whatever that thing they do is.
Outlook: Partly Sunny.
Nintendo: Not crazy about that name (Wii) or that controller, but if they come out with the right price point on the system ($200), I think they are the big winner here. Especially (as they have said they are going to do) they provide access to their old games as a download for a reasonable fee. You are a parent...do you want to shell out $600 for a game system that seems more computer than game, and then know you are committed to $50-$60 everytime junior gets bored? Or, do you want to pony up $200 and know that you can go get those games (which you loved growing up) for $5 a throw?
Outlook: Sunny
So, I think the next-gen is that Nintendo roars back, Sony falters and MS gains some...so that you end up with a pretty even split. Here is where the danger for the entire industy lays: That there is no clear leader, and that the "good" games are too spread out, and so lacking a clear decision, most consumers will simply not make one. Game developers and their $20M development costs start to lose their shirts and start to drop out. The whole industry kind of disappears into a black hole like what seems to happen every 10 years anyways.
Me? I have a stack of PS2 games, many of which I have picked up for $10...going to be hard for me to shell out a wad of cash...think I will sit things out for a few years until prices drop and a some of the unknowns shake themselves out. I am guessing there are quite a few folks like me.
Sony: The slipping of the PS3 has killed them, not only from a game standpoint, but probably from a company standpoint as well it has really hurt them. Sony is in a war for the next DVD standard. Coming out this spring, and their value proposition would have been "Yes, it is expensive...but you also are getting a cheap next-generation DVD player"...pretty compelling.
But now with the schedule slip, it has hurt them in two ways. First, MS gets a big lead for next gen gaming (and the fact that the latest reports in the press seem to be "umm...PS3 games not looking much better than 360 games"). And, more importantly, it has opened the door for Toshiba to come to market with their competing DVD standard...HD DVD. If you look at how the battle lines are being drawn...content providers (movie studios) are now generally siding with the HD DVD format. The reason is (a) it is here now and provides the opportunity to immediately start re-selling movies to consumers again (b) It uses the same basic manufacturing technology as existing DVD's, where "Blu-Ray" (dumb name..tell me what it is, and not about the technology) will require a large investment by manufacturers to make the disks. (C) it is an easy transition for people, as they can watch existing DVD format on them. People will buy the player based upon what they can watch, and not the technology (hello betamax!), and so I think the DVD format war is already over.
So, instead of the value proposition being "get a great game system..and a cheap DVD player" which would have given blu-ray standard an immediate install base (as gamers bought the machine) now Sony is looking at "Get a good game system..probably not much better than our year-old competitor...and a DOA DVD format player". This is horrible news for Sony...
Here is how Sony COULD salvage all this: First, need a redesign PSP. Kill that UMD drive, put a 20 GIG HDD in it. Make sure you have good interoperability between the PSP and the PS3. Sell them as a package...with the proposition of "For $1000, you get a DVR, a way to surf the net and watch HD movies. But more importantly, it is quick and easy to synch between it and the handheld unit. Have a show you recorded on the PS3 you want to watch on vacation? Software allows you to send it from your PS3 to your PSP. Can do the same for DVD movies . " Together, make them an integrated solution. Also, have the ability to download PS1 games for $3-$5 price points onto both. Even then...I would not be shocked if the Blu-Ray standard is dead and replaced or significantly altered to be compatible with DVD/HD DVD by the time PS3 comes rolling out.
In the end, I think Sony is too dumb to do this, because they are still seeing themselves a "hardware" company instead of an entertainment company. Why the UMD? They wanted to make money from the licensing. Why push the Blu-ray? They want the licensing. In short, they want the next-gen model to give them what they got in the initial CD standard wars...it is not going to happen. They need to stop creating cool gadgets and then worrying about how folks will use them and look at what people want to do first, and back-design into that.
Outlook dim, in my opinion, for Sony...and I a big Sony fan (own all they systems...and a chunck of their stock).
MS: As a company, they have bigger issues...onslaught from Google and freeware, Vista slip, etc. So, this might get them to re-affirm their committment to the game machine, as they see it as the trojan horse to keep the MS standard in place in the home. They learned alot with the 360, and it seems to be a solid machine...although they are already learning that players are balking at $60 games. Big ups for their Xbox Arcade or whatever that thing they do is.
Outlook: Partly Sunny.
Nintendo: Not crazy about that name (Wii) or that controller, but if they come out with the right price point on the system ($200), I think they are the big winner here. Especially (as they have said they are going to do) they provide access to their old games as a download for a reasonable fee. You are a parent...do you want to shell out $600 for a game system that seems more computer than game, and then know you are committed to $50-$60 everytime junior gets bored? Or, do you want to pony up $200 and know that you can go get those games (which you loved growing up) for $5 a throw?
Outlook: Sunny
So, I think the next-gen is that Nintendo roars back, Sony falters and MS gains some...so that you end up with a pretty even split. Here is where the danger for the entire industy lays: That there is no clear leader, and that the "good" games are too spread out, and so lacking a clear decision, most consumers will simply not make one. Game developers and their $20M development costs start to lose their shirts and start to drop out. The whole industry kind of disappears into a black hole like what seems to happen every 10 years anyways.
Me? I have a stack of PS2 games, many of which I have picked up for $10...going to be hard for me to shell out a wad of cash...think I will sit things out for a few years until prices drop and a some of the unknowns shake themselves out. I am guessing there are quite a few folks like me.
k If part of the problem with the PS3 is price, I'm not so sure how a PSP-PS3 bundle for $1000 would help sell any units, even if they pushed this connectivity. The more tech-savvy people (read: The ones who would spend the money on a set-up like this) most likely are already doing what you suggest, by encoding programs they capture with either TiVo or a Media Center box and popping them on a memory stick. This leaves you with the casual crowd, and if they're already having a hard time swallowing the $600 pill, there's almost no way you'll be able to get them to drop a grand on a gaming system.
