Real Clear Politics Electoral Vote Tracker, The Thread.

RAMSTORIA

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Real Clear Politics has a nice little map that is keeping track of poll numbers from each state and shows how the election breaks down right now. Since it's always changing I'll just post a link and we can discuss the changes throughout the next two months.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

breakdown

Under 2% lead is a "Toss up State"
2.1% - 10% is a "Leaning State"
Over 10% is "Solid"


Right now it has the race neck and neck, but if the election were held today Obama would win by 8 electoral votes.

National poll numbers are worthless, this is much more realistic.
 
Seems cool, I'll follow that one too I guess, lol.

I've been using www.electoral-vote.com since 2004, and myke also mentioned www.fivethirtyeight.com once and it's pretty good too.

I found www.270towin.com when googling once and it has a cool little feature where you can play around with the map (which your site does too apparently), but other than that I prefer the others.

Of course they use different methodologies so they don't always agree.
 
[quote name='RAMSTORIA']
Right now it has the race neck and neck, but if the election were held today Obama would win by 8 electoral votes.
[/QUOTE]
Let's hold the election today!
 
Polling is all kinds of screwy this time around for a couple of reasons.

1) Huge numbers of people under 35 are cell phone only households, so they don't get polled. This is Obama's base support demo. Various pollsters try and make up for it, but as fivethirtyeight.com has reported several times, it's wildly inaccurate.

2) newly registered voters aren't included in many polls. Team Obama has had a pretty amazing ground game registering new voters, over 3.5 million across the country, many in key swing states where they have been registering folks almost 10-1 vs. the Republicans. Making the total registered Dems at 47 million, Republicans at around 33 million.

Pollsters often use previous voting performance to judge if someone is a "likely" voter or not. Since these folks have no previous record, their polling data is culled from the lists.

3) The Bradley Effect. Wherein white voters, when polled for races with 1 white candidate and 1 non-white candidate, say they are going to vote for the non-white person or that they are undecided, and come election day switch over to the white candidate.
 
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McCain has pulled ahead...

Too early to be particularly meaningful, but, given the economy, Bush hatred, etc., it shouldn't be this close.
 
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is my fav

I really don't think McCain will win, though... polls aren't a great indicator right now. People are still enamored with Palin. I expect people to see through her guise in the coming weeks as she is forced to face the media, and I also expect Obama/Biden to take all three debates. I'll start paying attention to the polls again after the debates.
 
[quote name='KingBroly']Polls are not news and do not matter until the final 7 days before an election.[/QUOTE]

With race being an issue this time around as well as a woman being involved and the economy I dont think that Polls are going to be all that trustworthy. Not to mention that most Americans when polled like to act like their making an informed choice, but even if they were when they get into the booth they follow their gut.

I think if we could see inside peoples heads the day they vote there are going to be a lot of people that switch votes at the last second for a lot of stupid reasons.
 
I may start watching this instead of fivethirtyeight. Those cats appear more interested in traveling and their celebrity than keeping my interest.

Not that I begrudge them. Celebrity can be nice, and traveling rules the fuckin' universe. But their site suffers as a result.
 
The only poll that really matters is the election itself. If we didn't have five million polls, people might make a decision about the issues instead of trying to fit in or whatever the polls are supposed to do. They're good for the campaigns so they can pour money into battleground states but it leaves many people out in the cold if their state is a stone cold lead pipe lock. I'm sure the people in Texas and California would like to see and hear the presidential candidates too.
 
Well I was bored, so I made up maps of what I think the very best hopes are for each of the parties (which I did by taking the toss ups that were less than 3% in favor of one party and giving them to the other party).

Obama:


McCain:



What's weird is that Minnesota is pretty much definitely going to go Democrat, IMO, and in that instance if the McCain map was otherwise the same then we'd have a tie and a huge pain in the ass.
 
[quote name='SpazX']What's weird is that Minnesota is pretty much definitely going to go Democrat, IMO, and in that instance if the McCain map was otherwise the same then we'd have a tie and a huge pain in the ass the goddamned supreme court would select our Republican president again.[/QUOTE]

fixed.
 
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - What if it's a tie?

A handful of battleground states are likely to determine the November 4 U.S. presidential election and it's possible that Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama could split them in a manner that leaves each just short of victory.

If that happens, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would pick the president but it's unclear whether Democrats would have enough votes to send Obama to the White House.

The House last decided an election in 1824. But the legal skirmishing and partisan rancor would probably resemble a more recent election -- the 2000 vote in which Republican George W. Bush narrowly defeated Democrat Al Gore after a disputed Florida vote count and legal battle.

"This would be the seamy side of democracy, the lobbying and the money would be so intense," said American University history professor Allan Lichtman.

In the United States, presidential elections are determined on a state-by-state basis rather than a nationwide popular vote. Each state, along with the District of Columbia, is allotted a number of votes in the Electoral College that correspond to the number of representatives it has in Congress. To become president, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes.

If McCain wins Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio but loses Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa to Obama, both candidates could end up with 269 electoral votes.

Other, less likely scenarios -- McCain losing Virginia and New Hampshire but winning Michigan, for example -- also could result in a tie.

Under the U.S. Constitution, the House would then decide the election when it meets in January, with each state getting one vote -- regardless of its size -- if the chamber has to break a tie.

Democrats, who control the 435-seat House, outnumber Republicans in 27 state congressional delegations and could see that number rise in the November elections.

Republicans have a majority in 21 state delegations. Two states have an equal number of Republican and Democratic representatives.

Some members could feel pressure to vote for the other party's candidate if he carried their state or district or if he won a clear margin of the national popular vote, said Northwestern University law professor Robert Bennett.

They would also be under extraordinary pressure from party leaders to stick together.

"There would be bargaining in that context and lots of room for rancor and bitterness. It would be a mess," Bennett said.

The dispute probably would not be confined to Congress.

"Do you believe for one moment that this won't end up in the courts?" Lichtman said.

Other possible scenarios, according to Bennett:

* Before the House meets, the Obama and McCain campaigns could try to convince the Electoral College voters who actually cast each state's electoral votes to switch their support. This has happened occasionally in past elections but has never affected the outcome of an election. Electors in roughly half of the states are bound by law to honor the popular vote.

* While the House picks a president, the Senate picks the vice president in the event of a tie. The Democratic-controlled chamber could pick Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden even if McCain wins the House vote.

* The newly minted vice president could become acting president if the House doesn't reach a resolution by the time President George W. Bush leaves the White House on January 20.

* House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would become acting president if neither chamber could settle on a president or vice president but she would have to resign her post.

what would happen if there was a tie. that would be pretty wild of mccain came out on top and then biden was vp.
 
A tie would be garbage, and I hope it's avoided. But people like suspense. Maybe it could be a Fox reality show. They could do that whole rose thing, but Obama would never win. Even if he did, O'Reily would show up to take the rose from Obama and give it to McCain.
 
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