Sirius or XM? (Updated w/ thank you to all those that helped)

erika1209

erika1209

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I still don't know which one to get so please help me decided. If you can suggest a model to buy that would be great too. I'd prefer something i can use in my car and easily move into my house. Thank you in advance

Update: I think i've decided on a portable one i can use everywhere sporadic that portable one looks awesome i might get that one so right out of the box i can listen to it in my car at home or anywhere else as a portable device? any other suggestions for a portable one similar to this?Does sirius have one like this around the same price?Can i use this with my stereo even if it says Sirius on it?

Thanks again to everyone :)

Okay so should i get:
Delphi MyFi XM2GO Portable XM Satellite Radio Receiver with Home / Car Kits $145
Tao xm2go Portable Satellite Radio Receiver with Home and Car Accessory Kits $100

Update: I decided on sirius i like their music more and that they don't have commercials. it had nothing to do with sports or howard stern. I wanted a portable one so i decided on the s50 it comes with the car kit and i'll buy the home adapter later. I got it at best buy for $179.99 and it has a MIR for $100 what do you guys think?

Also anyone that posted before this update (which is 1:40pm) I really appreciated your help so if you'd like update your first post and I'll randomly pick someone and give them a free game, nothing great okay i'll let you pick from like 3 things I'll chose the winner saturday night thanks again for all your help :)
 
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[quote name='DJSteel']dude.. do you know how much money Clear Channel has??[/QUOTE]

Dude, do you realize Clear Channel has no vested interest in XM anymore? They sold their stock back to XM a few years ago. They only have a agreement to provide content for 4 music channels and about 3 talk channels. And the agreement ends next year, and may not be renewed, consitering CC is now one of the biggest opponents of sat radio with the NAB. On several CC stations I've heard ads against sat radio, and they are huge on promoting HD radio, which is great if you live in a major metro area with lots of station, but sucks because of limited range (makes FM look like AM), expensive equipment, and very few stations broadcasting in HD ouside of the biggest 4 or 5 markets.

BTW, Mr. Sirius, how come Sirius counts factory installed OEM radios as subs even if the vehicals radio has never been activated. I'd love to know how many Fords and DaimlerChrystlers are sitting on lots with Sirius radios that have never been activate, though Sirius counts that for a subscriber. Kinda fishy. XM doesnt count subs untill they are activated. Also, why wont Sirius release churn numbers for OEM activations (how many people drop the service when the trial on their new car is up). Last I read, 60% of cars sold with XM keep the sub after the trial. If Sirius was at that level or beating it, it would be all over their press releases, but they wont release those numbers.
 
I found this to be a interesting article from last quarter about Sirius' press release. I subscribe to both and have owned both stocks at one time. Though I believe Sirius has at this point better management, they way they run the company still scares me. This is why I believe in 10 years we wont have both like we currently have it.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/StreetPatrol/SiriusTroubleTurningAProfit.aspx

Sirius trouble turning a profit
Despite some encouraging signs, Sirius Satellite Radio still continues to excel at two things: adding new subscribers and losing money.

By Robert Walberg

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI, news, msgs) continues to excel at two things: adding new subscribers and losing money. Management also played its usual games with the earnings announcement Tuesday, burying the lack of profits six paragraphs into the press release.

Before telling us that the company actually lost more in the most-recent quarter ($237.8 million) than it did a year ago ($177.6 million), management showered investors with encouraging developments:

Revenue surged 187% to $150.1 million.

Addition of 600,460 net subscribers, a jump of 64% from last year.

A 57% share for the second quarter, with a 61% share in June.

Third-straight quarter leading industry in net subscriber additions.

Subscriber acquisition costs fell 18% to $131 from $160.

Upped revenue and subscriber guidance for full-year 2006.

If you stopped reading the press release there, as management probably hoped, it’s easy to understand why you might get excited about investing in Sirius’ stock. The company’s marketing efforts, radio personalities, and strong relationships within the automobile industry have given it a leg up on its larger rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings (XMSR, news, msgs) when it comes to adding subscribers. Adding new relationships with KIA and Mitsubishi, as well as taking over the broadcasting rights to NASCAR from its rival in 2007, should keep the momentum going.

Trend in Sirius' favor
Sirius now expects to end the year with about 6.3 million subscribers, up from its previous estimate of 6.2 million. That will still leave it a couple million behind XM, but the trend over the last year is working in Sirius’ favor. In a couple of years, Sirius may actually achieve its goal of becoming number one.

Unfortunately, the price of that goal is so high that the company continues to bleed red. For those of us who persisted to the meat of the earnings report, we learned that the company’s net loss grew by 34%, despite posting more revenue and subscribers than expected.

The company also tried to diffuse the growth in expenses by not listing the percentage change, as if we were too stupid or too lazy to do the math. Whereas management was more than happy to point out the 64% jump in subscribers and the 187% rise in sales, it didn’t want you to see that sales and marketing expenses jumped 65%, or that satellite and transmission expenses rose 164%. More alarming, programming and content expenses surged 235%. Overpaying for personalities and content actually does have an impact on the bottom line, even if you try to bury it in your report.

Not a viable business
Until management figures out a way to get subscribers without having to pay exorbitant sums to people like Howard Stern or to organizations like the NFL, Sirius will continue to deliver mixed results at earnings time. You simply can’t have average monthly subscriber revenues coming in at about the same figure as subscriber acquisition costs and still have a profitable, viable long-term business.

On the plus side, subscriber costs are coming down and average revenue per user is rising. Management needs to focus on widening the spread considerably if it hopes to meet its stated long-term goals of $3 billion in revenue and $1 billion in free cash flow by 2010. It needs to end the costly programming/personalities race with XM. Otherwise, there’s no way the company will hit its cash flow targets.

Shares see sharp drop
Just look at the company’s guidance for fiscal 2006, in which it now expects to be cash flow negative to the tune of $500 million, worse than an earlier projection of $480 million. Promising to be cash flow positive is one thing, delivering the goods is quite another.

Since I wrote my first report on Sirius in which I questioned management’s integrity, the sustainability of the company’s business model and the insane valuation of the stock, Sirius shares have declined sharply -- from just north of $7 per share to under $4. The stock has bounced back a bit in recent weeks, and at today’s price is reasonably valued considering its long-term promise and extremely devoted fan/investor base.

Speculators might want to nibble in hopes of a renewed rally ahead of the NASCAR buzz, but until the company gains control of expenses and until the average subscription costs falls below $100, most investors should continue to take a pass. At 18x trailing sales the stock is still richly valued, and with over $1 billion in debt the balance sheet is still too leveraged.

ps-bolding/italics was added by me, not the author.
 
[quote name='uli2000']Dude, do you realize Clear Channel has no vested interest in XM anymore? They sold their stock back to XM a few years ago. They only have a agreement to provide content for 4 music channels and about 3 talk channels. And the agreement ends next year, and may not be renewed, consitering CC is now one of the biggest opponents of sat radio with the NAB. On several CC stations I've heard ads against sat radio, and they are huge on promoting HD radio, which is great if you live in a major metro area with lots of station, but sucks because of limited range (makes FM look like AM), expensive equipment, and very few stations broadcasting in HD ouside of the biggest 4 or 5 markets.

BTW, Mr. Sirius, how come Sirius counts factory installed OEM radios as subs even if the vehicals radio has never been activated. I'd love to know how many Fords and DaimlerChrystlers are sitting on lots with Sirius radios that have never been activate, though Sirius counts that for a subscriber. Kinda fishy. XM doesnt count subs untill they are activated. Also, why wont Sirius release churn numbers for OEM activations (how many people drop the service when the trial on their new car is up). Last I read, 60% of cars sold with XM keep the sub after the trial. If Sirius was at that level or beating it, it would be all over their press releases, but they wont release those numbers.[/quote]

prove that bit of information...and Clear Channel would still financially back them if they needed to because they have a relationship with them.
 
[quote name='DJSteel']prove that bit of information...and Clear Channel would still financially back them if they needed to because they have a relationship with them.[/QUOTE]

http://satellitestandard.blogspot.com/2006/03/sirius-oem-count.html

Some Sirius OEM subscriptions (DCX) are counted at the time of manufacture. The reason for this is that DCX pays Sirius up front for a 1 year subscription that Sirius is then passing onto the end user of the automobile. There are people that take exception to this practice, and people that accept it. Here are some things to note:

Sirius pays the subsidy for the radio install up front. This is a Subscriber Acquisition Cost (SAC). This means that Sirius has already invested the dollars into creating a subscriber.

2. Sirius receives the subscription revenue (from DCX) at the time of manufacture.
Units receiving revenue are counted as subscribers. Sirius accounts for the full
impact of the subscriber cost, and books the revenue over the first12 months that
the end user has the vehicle in their possession.

EVERY car that is manufactured with a satellite radio (whether Sirius or XM) becomes a subscriber at some point.

Cars typically sit on a dealer lot for 60 days at the most. Many are sold within 30 days. This means that the un-activated radio is not being counted for a long period of time.

Sirius is only counting three months of DCX vehicles in any given quarter. For example, the q1 2006 DCX cars counted as subscribers will be the DCX cars manufactured in January, February, and March. The bulk of these will be sold during the first quarter anyway. Those that do not sell in Q2 are not counted a second time in the second quarter.

So, while some people like to make a big deal about this practice, on reality, the effect is very minimal. This is especially true when you consider that they will ALL become subscribers any way.

The structure of the practice has been fully disclosed by Sirius, and is well known. Analysts, and other professionals are well aware of the practice, and have not taken exception to it.
Click to expand...

The author of the article doesnt have a problem with it, but I do. Lets say that I own a cell phone company, and I want to say I have the most subscribers of any cell phone company in the country. I havent sold a cell phone, but I have 100 million in a wharehouse somewhere. Im gonna sell them eventually, so Im the biggest cell phone service provider in the country. Thats what Sirius is doing with its OEM subscriptions. Sure, they state the average is 60 days for a sell, but on some vehicals, it takes longer. For instance, at my local ford dealer ( I live in a small town), they still have 3 2005 cars that are new, never been sold, never been titled. I dont know if any of them have Sirius installed, but if they did, Sirus counted those cars as a sub for a period of time when all they have done is sit on a dealers lot.
 
[quote name='uli2000']http://satellitestandard.blogspot.com/2006/03/sirius-oem-count.html



The author of the article doesnt have a problem with it, but I do. Lets say that I own a cell phone company, and I want to say I have the most subscribers of any cell phone company in the country. I havent sold a cell phone, but I have 100 million in a wharehouse somewhere. Im gonna sell them eventually, so Im the biggest cell phone service provider in the country. Thats what Sirius is doing with its OEM subscriptions. Sure, they state the average is 60 days for a sell, but on some vehicals, it takes longer. For instance, at my local ford dealer ( I live in a small town), they still have 3 2005 cars that are new, never been sold, never been titled. I dont know if any of them have Sirius installed, but if they did, Sirus counted those cars as a sub for a period of time when all they have done is sit on a dealers lot.[/quote]
okay but if this is the standard then XM does it too..
 
Here's a little info on the XM/CC situation from the XM wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XM_Satellite_Radio

As part of terrestrial radio giant Clear Channel Communications' early investment into XM in 1998, the companies entered into agreements which provided for certain programming and director designation arrangements as long as Clear Channel retained the full amount of its original investment in XM. One consequence of this was that XM had (and still has) exclusive programming rights to all Clear Channel content, including popular national shows like Glenn Beck and Coast to Coast AM. In June 2003, Clear Channel entered into a forward sales agreement relating to its ownership of XM. During the third quarter of 2005, Clear Channel and XM arbitrated the impact of this agreement on the Operational Assistance Agreement and the Director Designation Agreement. The Arbitration Panel decided that the Operational Assistance Agreement would remain in effect, including Clear Channel's right to receive a revenue share of commercial advertising on programming it provides to XM, but declined to enforce the Director Designation Agreement. Per the original agreement, Clear Channel has the right to program 409.6 kbit/s of XM bandwidth, including forcing XM to include commercial advertising. The current plans for this bandwidth will include up to 5 music channels including: XM11 Nashville!, XM21 KISS, XM22 Mix, XM24 Sunny, and the relaunch of WSIX on XM161 plus the existing talk channel programming (XM165 Talk Radio, XM152 Extreme XM, XM142 Fox Sports Radio, and XM173 WLW). Plans to introduce new regional based talk channels, which would have featured a local 2-3 minute newscast for each area of the country, were cancelled. The music channel advertising is expected to be limited to the 5-6 minute per hour maximum that was in place prior to XM taking its music channels commercial-free in 2004.

Seen as a blow to XM's 100% commercial-free music channel status, XM Executive Vice President of Programming Eric Logan released a programming announcementto XM subscribers on the company's website that reiterated XM's commitment to commercial-free music while noting that XM still had the most commercial-free music and that more commercial-free music channels will be added in the near future to ensure that XM will still have more commercial-free music than competitor Sirius Satellite Radio. On April 17, 2006, XM launched US Country (XM17), Flight 26 (XM26), XM Hitlist (XM30) and Escape (XM78) to provide commercial free music in the formats of the Clear Channel programmed music channels which were going to begin airing commercials. In response, Sirius has displayed that they are the only satellite radio provider that is 100% commercial free with music. Both XM and Sirius air commercials on their news, talk, and sports channels.

The Clear Channel forward sales agreement with Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc is set to expire in 2008, at which time Clear Channel is expected to deliver to Bear Stearns over 8.3 million shares in XM — which is their original investment — however Clear Channel withholds the right to settle with cash. If Clear Channel settles with shares, then it would be expected at that time that Clear Channels' Operational Assistance Agreement with XM would terminate, along with any and all programming provided by Clear Channel.
Click to expand...

also from the wiki:

At that time, GM owned 8.6% of the Class A common stock (a voting percentage of less than 1%) and Honda owned 13% (with a voting percentage of 3.6%).

Unless they unaminously agree otherwise, control of the company remains with the preferred shareholder and noteholders of the company, including Hughes Electronics, GM, Honda, and several private investment groups.
Click to expand...

CC owns as much stock as GM, which holds less than 1% of the cotrolling vote of the company. Thats not much say at all. They dont have anyone on the board, and other than the channels they program, they have no say in the company. At XM's current stock price, they've already lost about 1/2 their initial investment in XM. They will in a sense make more money selling XM stock at a loss and taking the tax write offs than making any amount of money from the stock. Im not an corperate tax law or accounting speciallist (though I did stay at a Holliday Inn Express last night :) ), CC would get more savings out of thier shares at XM being worth nothing than they would if the stock price doubled from thier initial investment of $250 million.
 
[quote name='DJSteel']okay but if this is the standard then XM does it too..[/QUOTE]

No they dont. They count subs as they are activated, OEM and retail.
 
Bottom line is that most people don't want to pay for something they're used to getting for free. I agree with whoever said that XM and Sirius will end up merging, if not folding altogether at some point.

As far as Sirius overpaying Howard Stern, they did what they had to do to present a serious alternative to XM. There was an opportunity and they took it, despite the risks.
 
[quote name='uli2000']No they dont. They count subs as they are activated, OEM and retail.[/quote]

how do you know that?? do you count?

Also on the Stern issue.. XM overpaid for Oprah..big deal
 
[quote name='DJSteel']how do you know that?? do you count?

Also on the Stern issue.. XM overpaid for Oprah..big deal[/QUOTE]

Dollar for Dollar, Sirius got a much better deal for Stern that XM is getting with Oprah. Stern has paid for himself at least twice over. I dont think Oprah has come close to breaking even.

BTW, Im not anti Sirius. I sub to both. I enjoy both. I can post just as many or more negative articles on XM as I can Sirius. What I cant stand is sat radio fanbois who think thier company is the best and the other one sucks. If this medium is to survive, we need all the people we can. What do you think will happen to sat radio if one of the companies has to make a deal with the Devil (CC, CBS, or one of the other large broadcasting groups)? It will decimate both. I see it similar to the consol wars. Instead of hatting on the other guy, why are we not going after those going after us (the RIAA, NAB)? Those two organizations are much more of a threat to sat radio than either sat radio company is to the other.
 
I don't like Sirius.. I like XM they have Fungus a "true" punk station where Sirius has like a "punk hip hop metal" station that isn't very good. and XM has Coast To Coast AM with George Noory and Lex and Terry so I have to go with XM.. I do however like Sirus's other rock stations.. just i'm a punker at heart so i gotta go with XM is was like no contest i've had it a year and have seen no problems with it (got a cheap car one for like 40 bucks)

if you're into punk (or Metal for that matter XM has 2-3 metal stations) then i'd go with XM if you're into all the "talk" that Sirius has go with them.. and sports its no contest Sirius has NBA NFL and NHL games i'd definately go with that.. but i only watch the Jazz and I have a TV to watch all 82 games on so yeah.. XM works for me.
 
[quote name='uli2000']Dollar for Dollar, Sirius got a much better deal for Stern that XM is getting with Oprah. Stern has paid for himself at least twice over. I dont think Oprah has come close to breaking even.

BTW, Im not anti Sirius. I sub to both. I enjoy both. I can post just as many or more negative articles on XM as I can Sirius. What I cant stand is sat radio fanbois who think thier company is the best and the other one sucks. If this medium is to survive, we need all the people we can. What do you think will happen to sat radio if one of the companies has to make a deal with the Devil (CC, CBS, or one of the other large broadcasting groups)? It will decimate both. I see it similar to the consol wars. Instead of hatting on the other guy, why are we not going after those going after us (the RIAA, NAB)? Those two organizations are much more of a threat to sat radio than either sat radio company is to the other.[/quote]

dude.. I'm not sitting here thinking Sirius is the Be all end all.. I just don't agree with the XM guy that is posting his stuff in here.. i definitely think it is different strokes for different folks.
 
[quote name='DJSteel']dude.. I'm not sitting here thinking Sirius is the Be all end all.. I just don't agree with the XM guy that is posting his stuff in here.. i definitely think it is different strokes for different folks.[/QUOTE]

If thats your case, post facts to back up your opinions. Granted, I think you are both drinking a little too much of your respected kool aids.
 
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