[quote name='chrislisting']I doubt Christmas 2013 for a few reasons
- 10 yr plan, and were only around a full 5, partial 6. i think around a full 8 to partial 9 would be more likely with firmware updates
- hardware still isnt being fully tapped into (software coding is not calling on all resources)
- with 3d gaming/3d bluray just starting to flower, they have a fresh market to test before fully investing in its nextgen form development
- DLC is still a big market that will only really start to whither when amazing titles are no longer developed, and my guess is big titles will still be coming by the end of 2013, i mean mid 2010-end 2011 was a CRAZY 1.5 yr for games,especially the PS3, and a lot of the great stuff really came at the end of 2011. starting to turn the attention elsewhere now is kinda like a give away for sony on the hardware end because software developers arent going to lose, it would be liike a year end clearance for the current model year in February
- PSN - they still need to iron that out a lot more. i doubt they would start playing around with a PS4 online network before they even solidify the PS3's
- PC Gaming is more affordable than ever while providing a lot more options than consoles. Sony has to really streamline and economize their hardware manufacturing with the best performance rivaling PC power while keeping costs very low. People are getting a lot more computer savvy. In 2 years, people won't be afraid of PC gaming and stick to console when they have a more powerful machine sitting on their lap and know how to use it. The PS3 is just starting to hit $200 barely, so the PS4 is gonna have to be like a PC (yeah, sorta like the PS3 but even more powerful) at a very low introductory price.
In conclusion PS3 needs exclusive native code programming and/or titles to fully push the CPU/GPU and unlock the full power, a lot more development in the 3D market which is growing in order to test the waters before jumping into the deep end with a new console, and to really see what can be done in the online network both in terms of the playing community and the DLC/sales end of things. See, the PS3 is really the nextgen prototype and beta. They would be wasting a lot of money if they released something next year on top of diving into the unknown. The lab test results are just comin in if u know what I mean.
That's my rumor anyway....
(P.S. I wouldn't buy a PS4 until it had a 1/2 price drop like we saw in 2010, which means if it launched end 2013, i wouldn't have one until 2017 or so, and that's if I'd still be playing consoles then....)[/QUOTE]
A new console doesn't have any bearing on the ten year lifecycle. This started with the PS2 and was more than fulfilled. The PS2 is still being developed for and doing a fair business in developing markets.
Keep in mind Sony never said ten years as the lead product in their console business. If a PS4 appeared in 2013 it would be comparable to when the PS3 hit in the PS2's career.
The bigger question to me is how far they can bring down the PS3's price. It becomes more of a problem in each generation as the feature sets increase. We still think in terms of the magic $99 price but $99 isn't what it used to be. IIRC, the SNES got down to $99 shortly after the N64 launch. $99 then is close to $150 today. But $150 doesn't have the same temptation value as $99.
One big challenge is the hard drive. The base cost of a hard drive, even as the capacity improves, hasn't changed in many years.
Still, a $150 PS3 should move a lot of units before calling the platform at an end worldwide.