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GameDude

GameDude

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Hi guys,

Can anyone please help me on this?

"After meeting with the regional sales managers, Lauretta Anderson, President of Omni Computers Inc. believes the probability sales will grow by 10% in the next year is 0.70. After coming to this conclusion, she receives a report John Cadariu of Maxibrain Software Inc. has just announced a new operating system that will be available for customers in 8 months. From past history, she knows that, in situations where growth has eventually occurred, new operating systems have been announced 30% of the time. However, in situations where growth has not eventually occurred, new operating systems have been announced 10% of the time. Based on all of these facts, what is the probability sales will grow by 10%?"

Thank you so much!
 
[quote name='GameDude']Hi guys,

Can anyone please help me on this?

"After meeting with the regional sales managers, Lauretta Anderson, President of Omni Computers Inc. believes the probability sales will grow by 10% in the next year is 0.70. After coming to this conclusion, she receives a report John Cadariu of Maxibrain Software Inc. has just announced a new operating system that will be available for customers in 8 months. From past history, she knows that, in situations where growth has eventually occurred, new operating systems have been announced 30% of the time. However, in situations where growth has not eventually occurred, new operating systems have been announced 10% of the time. Based on all of these facts, what is the probability sales will grow by 10%?"

Thank you so much![/QUOTE]
An explanation would help us.
 
[quote name='6669']An explanation would help us.[/QUOTE]


I have a take home test I'm working on and I'm stuck. I think it has to do with Bayes Theorem
 
if it's baye's thm, start by writing out your probabilities:

P(grow) = .7
P(OS|grow) = .3
P(OS|nogrow) = .1

we're given that a new OS has been announced,

thus we solve for P(grow|OS)

P(grow|OS) = P(OS|grow)*P(grow)/P(OS)

I *think* P(OS) would be the sum of its conditionals

there's another version of baye's I can't quite remember at the moment...
 
To try and translate this.

Omi(IBM) believes sales will grow 10%
and the next year will be 0.70 ( 70% )

Or is it

Omi(IBM) believes sales will grow from 10%
to 0.70 ( 70% ) by the next year

New Varible into the eqaution if not important is......

In 8 months Maxibrain(Mafisoft) will realease a new OS.

Growth means a OS will be announced 30% of the time
No growth means a OS will be announced 10% of the time

Based on all of these facts, what is the probability sales will grow by 10%?

I think it might be a cross multiple porblem where you need to cross multiple to find the new procentle
 
Thanks for the help guys. I really do appreciate it. I'm still lost though. If anyone can come up with the correct answer with the work to show it, I'll paypal them $10!
 
[quote name='GameDude']Thanks for the help guys. I really do appreciate it. I'm still lost though. If anyone can come up with the correct answer with the work to show it, I'll paypal them $10![/QUOTE]dude, I GAVE you the answer!

I remember the other way to solve baye's,

thus, P(OS) = P(OS|grow)*P(grow) + P(OS|nogrow)*P(nogrow)

of course, P(nogrow) = .3

just plug everything in, and PM me for my paypal address.

edit:

regalsin>> the 10% part is not important,

it's just a way to throw off problem solvers
 
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