The 2012 Election Thread

D

dmaul1114

Banned
Surprised we didn't already have a thread for this with all the recent announcements.

I'll start it with summary of the recent GOP presidential candidate field, but the thread can include congressional races etc. as well.


Most recent, Mitch Daniels announced he will not be running:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...cides-against-republican-presidential-bid/?hp

And Tim Pawlenty will be officially announcing his run tomorrow:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...announce-monday/?scp=2&sq=tim pawlenty&st=cse

With Huckabee and Trump opting out earlier, it's looking like it will be Romney and Pawlenty as the two main contenders for the GOP nomination.
 
Wikipeida (I know, I know...) list two Democrats (Obama and Randall Terry), 12 Republicans and 3 'other' candidates who have officially announced their bid.
 
Urgh Randall Terry. Isn't he running just so he can put out commercials that contain images of aborted fetuses (fetii?)
 
Here's the list of 12 from Wikipedia (after a quick check it seems legit/up-to-date):

Herman Cain, former Federal Reserve banker and businessman from Georgia
Newt Gingrich, former U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives from Georgia
Gary E. Johnson former governor of New Mexico
Fred Karger, political consultant and gay rights activist from California
Andy Martin, perennial candidate from Illinois
Jimmy McMillan, perennial candidate from New York
Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court of Alabama
Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas
Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota
Buddy Roemer, former governor of Louisiana
Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts
Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania
Click to expand...

Michele Bachman and Sarah Palin are the too biggest names that haven't officially said yes or no yet.

Otherwise, it's really between Romney and Pawlenty. I don't see any of the other 10 above having any chance. Ron Paul will get some votes as last time, but not enough to have any chance at the nomination.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']Yeah, unless the economy suddenly tanks again, Obama pretty much has re-election in the bag (hence the drop outs).[/QUOTE]

I wouldn't be surprised if it happened to be honest just in terms of inflation, gas prices and the value of the dollar. Romney is seemingly the leading candidate right now. Unless the New Jersey Governor stepped in and ran, it'll probably be Romney.
 
The only thing Romney did for MA was the healthcare bill. Otherwise, he was a typical republican politician that stripped important social programs of funding.

He has a better chance of getting raptured than beating Obama.

The person, at this point, to look out for is Huntsman. It'll only be a matter of time til his campaign jumps the shark.

I thought Huckabee would've been a bigger contender, but he flaked.
 
[quote name='KingBroly']I wouldn't be surprised if it happened to be honest just in terms of inflation, gas prices and the value of the dollar. Romney is seemingly the leading candidate right now. Unless the New Jersey Governor stepped in and ran, it'll probably be Romney.[/QUOTE]

The economy could tank again, but I doubt it will by fall 2012. The stock market has stayed above 12K for a long while now, unemployment is still high, but is slowly falling most months, gas prices are going down already (down 15 cents over the last week here).

Unless some of that hits the tank in 2012, Obama will be tough to beat. The republican base is more fractured than in the past between traditional republicans, far right fiscal conservative/small government types (tea party etc.) and the religious right who are concerned more with social issues like gay marriage and abortion than fiscal issues and size of government.

The Ryan budget will hurt them among independents and seniors--a poll I saw last week showed a small majority seniors opposed to it even after being explained that it wouldn't affect them as they didn't want their kids and grandkids to not have the same Medicare benefits they have.

Plus the candidates just aren't strong. It's looking more and more like it will be Romney, and being a Mormon will hurt him among the religious right, and his MA health care plan while governor will kill him among tea party types.

Obama will lose a lot of support he got from the far left last time who feel he went to far to the center, and from independents who don't like his health care plan etc. But he should still turn out enough of the minority and young voter bases to win easily--if the economy doesn't tank again.

He'll be able to tout his health care bill (and contrast it to the Ryan budget), repealing don't ask don't tell, getting Bin Laden, getting most troops out of Iraq and starting to draw down in Afghanistan, the economic recovery (stock market is back, GM survived and has 5 straight quarters of profit, etc.). That's a pretty strong re-election campaign message for the bulk of his base.
 
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[quote name='dohdough']The only thing Romney did for MA was the healthcare bill. Otherwise, he was a typical republican politician that stripped important social programs of funding.
[/QUOTE]

He sold me a sausage outside of Fenway Park when he was campaigning in 2002. That was his only real positive contribution to my life when I lived in MA. :roll:
 
[quote name='bvharris']He sold me a sausage outside of Fenway Park when he was campaigning in 2002. That was his only real positive contribution to my life when I lived in MA. :roll:[/QUOTE]
HAHA...hopefully it didn't give you the runs.
 
Runny mormon sausage? Damn, that's a lot to think about all at once.

Pawlenty will be able to play the "balanced budget" card for quite some time until people realize that income taxes were stable but the state still increased revenue by putting fees on everything that didn't already have them and increasing them on everything else. Oh yeah, property taxes too... He's an affable and nice guy and will play much better against Obama than McCain the cranky fart. On the other hand, he's just too much of that upper midwesterner that won't speak loudly against his opponents. Hell even when he was overstepping his legal abilities of gov and unalloting spending from whatever programs he saw fit he never did more than say "well shucks, we can't spend money we don't have"...
 
Pawlenty is just too much of an unknown on the national scene to beat out Romney most likely.

As you note, he doesn't have the charisma and personality of someone like Obama to go out and give great speeches and quickly build a name for himself like Obama did.

He's a guy that really would probably need to be Vice President first and then run after those terms to have much of a chance. Or run for Senate and win and then build up a national name etc.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']The economy could tank again, but I doubt it will by fall 2012. The stock market has stayed above 12K for a long while now, unemployment is still high, but is slowly falling most months, gas prices are going down already (down 15 cents over the last week here).[/QUOTE]


I think saying that the economy could tank again is what I would call putting the cart before the horse. Sure there has been some improvement... but there's a long way to go. As for the market... well 12K would surprise me if it held though the end of the month let alone the summer and I'm typically bullish on the market. (I hope it does hold 12K for the record)

Unemployment is another problem that I'm not sure about. From what I can gather locally, manufacturing jobs are starting to pick up... but they're also using temp workers. One of two reasons for that. They like using temps to screen workers or they're not sure if the increase in business is temporary. Could be both.
 
[quote name='Afflicted']Unemployment is another problem that I'm not sure about. From what I can gather locally, manufacturing jobs are starting to pick up... but they're also using temp workers. One of two reasons for that. They like using temps to screen workers or they're not sure if the increase in business is temporary. Could be both.[/QUOTE]

Using temp workers is a a great way to do business. Offer good workers permanent positions and let the mediocre walk after their contract is up.

As for the election, it's the President's to lose. The Republicans don't have a candidate that's even worthy of heading a ticket much less being President.
 
I doubt he will, and I can't think of anyone who'd help him more off the top of my head.

Hillary Clinton has said she wants to retire after this term, so she's out. If she was interested that would probably be an upgrade as it would turn out more of the female vote. But that's not a huge boost as Obama polls well among females anyway.

Maybe Bill Richardson to help get out the Hispanic vote. But again with all the republicans blocking immigration reform Obama has supported, and republican led states like AZ and GA passing harsh immigration laws, Obama should win the Hispanic vote handily anyway.
 
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[quote name='depascal22']Obama needs a Jew after the moving back to pre-1967 lines fiasco.[/QUOTE]

I'm not sure how big an issue that is. From my experience the Jewish people who are very opposed to giving back settlements etc. are conservatives anyway.

The bulk of the younger, more liberal Jewish people I know are more supportive of the two state solution, have always been opposed to the settlements etc.

So I'm not sure that statement will affect his votes among the Jewish population all that much as I'd be the bulk who are really pissed about it wouldn't have voted for him to begin with.
 
Democrats gain a house seat in traditionally Republican district in an NY special election.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/nyregion/democrat-capture-house-seat-in-special-election.html?hpw


Building off that, as that election largely turned based on Medicare, here's an article on the GOP having to go on the defensive over voter backlash over the proposed Medicare cuts/changes in the Ryan budget.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/26/us/politics/26medicare.html?_r=1&hp

And, finally, here's an article on Gingrich having his "frugal" image hurt by spending hundreds of thousands on jewelry for his wife.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/us/politics/25gingrich.html?hp
 
Well Joe Biden was chosen as VP for his foreign policy experience. At this point it probably won't matter as much. Would the Democratic really want Biden running in 2016? I think 2012 would be a good time to prep a VP to be a future candidate.
 
[quote name='62t']Well Joe Biden was choice as VP for his foreign policy. At this point it probably won't matter as much. Would the Democratic really want Biden running in 2016? I think 2012 would be a good time to prep a VP to be a future candidate.[/QUOTE]

That's a good point. Only name that jumps to mind for me though is Tim Kaine, and he's running for Senate.
 
[quote name='Dr Mario Kart']Nobody said this.[/QUOTE]

I said that. We're just throwing crap at the wall to see what sticks.

Either he picks a young up and comer like 62t said, he stays with Biden, or he picks another older white guy from a Rust Belt state. He doesn't need Hispanics or women after the Republican agenda of the few years.
 
I thought Biden was picked because of his 'blue collar working guy' persona. I never found his foreign policy experience to be particularly stellar. If that was the case I'd pick someone like Jim Webb instead, who was completely right about how Iraq would turn out.
 
He was picked for both the blue collar thing and the foreign policy experience as I believe, IIRC, he'd chaired the foreign affairs committee or something for a number of years.

It was a way to strike with two of Obama's weaknesses--foreign policy experience and appealing to blue collar working class white folks.
 
I thought Obama picked Biden because he was running an anti-establishment and anti-insider campaign.

[quote name='dmaul1114']Signs grow that Palin may run: [/QUOTE]
We really need a "None of the Above" option.
 
I think Palin running at all is still a long shot.
1) She wasnt suspended from Fox along with Santorum and Gingrich.
2) She actually hates governing.
3) She loves being rich.

The second option is that she runs for a very limited time in a way that is not remotely serious.
 
Well, the Senate voted down the House medicare budget 57-40 yesterday. Only 5 Republicans voted against it, and 2 abstained or were absent.

http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/112/senate/1/77

Significance of that vote for this thread is it looks like this will be a major issue in the 2012 elections. As posted above, Democrats pulled a big upset for an open House seat in NY on Tuesday primarily on the strength of the Dem. candidate hammering the Rep. on the proposed Medicare reform she supported. And now this vote gives Democrats more ammunition against people up for re-election in 2012.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/26/us/politics/26medicare.html?_r=1&ref=politics
 
I think Palin wants to be the conservative Oprah. She can be a kingmaker while never being anything close to a real player in politics.
 
That's my guess as welll. If Palin does run, she'll just do it for few months to build up her name again and then drop out as she doesn't have any real chance at getting the nomination based on polls I've seen.
 
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My guess is that we hear a lot of back and forth about who cut medicare. Republicans will say that Democrats cut medicare to fund Obamacare which is a failure and should be overturned. Democrats will tell the truth but stretch the shit out of it.
 
[quote name='depascal22']I think Palin wants to be the conservative Oprah. She can be a kingmaker while never being anything close to a real player in politics.[/QUOTE]

couldn't say it better myself, she seemingly has no interest in getting her hands dirty but wants to be on an endless campaign for other people.
 
[quote name='depascal22']I think Palin wants to be the conservative Oprah. She can be a kingmaker while never being anything close to a real player in politics.[/QUOTE]

That's what I'd do if I had no talent for or knowledge of actual governance and yet was inexplicably popular with a large swath of the population in spite (or perhaps because) of that.
 
I think Newt may be done before he really got started. This morning on the news the stated reasons for them leaving were that he wouldn't listen to them about campaign issues, and that his wife treated many of them like shit.
 
Before the first shot has really even been fired, does anybody really think the ticket will be anything other than Romney/Pawlenty? Romney is the only one that seems presidential at all and I think his Mormon deal will be overshadowed by "hey I'm white" which will be good enough for the (R) people to want to put him up against Obama. Timmy P is just enough of a weasel to be able to stick around long enough to catch the VP nomination.

The only way Obama loses against this pairing is if he REALLY fucks something up.

And by REALLY fucking up I mean we get HD video of him killing Michele on the lawn with an overly aggressive donkey punch.
 
They could get all Thomas Eagleton and Sargent Shriver if Joe Biden steps down.

If there's one thing Democrats know how to do, it's fuck up a sure thing.
 
I'm really hoping that Batshit Bachman decides to join the fray on the Monday debate. That will be high comedy to say the least.
 
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