[quote name='berzirk']I don't think they hate Obama enough to support someone they also despise.[/quote]
This is the foundation of our disagreement. I definitely see them voting for an (R). People invested in the political process will vote. Campaign ads will be nasty like they have been for decades. We'll get a new spin on the LBJ "daisy" ad suggesting that Obama will literally (and I mean literally) destroy the country. We haven't had a post-Citizens United presidential election yet.
This shit is gonna be off the charts. I'm going to guess a $6B overall campaign spending package (just for the general, and including SuperPAC money - since 2008 campaign expenditures were around $4B). I have no faith that people who hate a candidate will sit home, even if he is a...Mormon? I guess that's bad enough to hate someone over (yeesh, and they say we liberals hate religion).
For example, if Romney gets it, some of those southern contests could be fairly close.
Not a chance.
High delegate states like CA, NY, FL, OH, PA should all be locks for Obama. Those "swing states" will all fall in line for him.
Some of those states are swing states, but CA and NY aren't. FL and OH will be tough for the reasons DMK noted. PA will be a challenge (though I predict Obama will have an easier time of it, ironically, if Santorum is the nominee).
This race hasn't been much different than others. The Gore and Kerry elections were close because Bush was despised at a near record percentage, and even those very weak candidates couldn't win.
The 2000 and 2004 elections couldn't have been any more different from each other in any number of ways. War, the economy, the relevance of blowjobs, popular vote versus electoral vote, budget surplus vs budget deficit, gas prices, 9/11, and $300 CHECKS FROM GEORGE DUBYA BUSH! OMG WE'RE GOING SHOPPING AT IKEA.
Also, that whole Supreme Court stopping the recount thing was a bit unique to 2000.
Those two elections are not comparable in the slightest.
You put any of the GOP candidates against Obama, and you're going to have Dole-Clinton all over again.
I wish. I'll give you this much - 2012 is shaping up that way - inheriting a shitty economy, congressional Republican sweep two years later, milquetoast (R) candidate put up as fodder for the (D) incumbent. So I'll give you that - it does seem like 1996 again.
Obama has already been through the nasties by all the crap people threw at him last election. No he's not a muslim (even if the inbreds in Alabama and Missisissippi don't realize it), no he wasn't born in Kenya (thank you for confirming that Mr. Trump), no he wasn't friends with a terrorist, and no he's not a bigot who supported an outspoken pastor. They are going to have to run on his record, and from a foreign policy standpoint, it's the exact same as Bush.
Foreign policy isn't relevant, politically, right now. Sadly.
The economy is slowly improving, and anyone who thinks the President controls gas prices isn't smart enough to vote to begin with.
The economy is improving, but it's doing so slowly. Frame the issue in two ways, though, and you can easily hide that fact: (1) deficit spending by Obama means we're all going to end up indentured servants to the Red Chinese in the future and/or be subject to hyperinflation like we're 1920's Germany, and (2) the price of volatile commodities means that your dollar doesn't go as far, therefore the economy is shit. Individual voters don't feel or see an aggregated unemployment rate in their day to day life, but they do see $4.00/gal gasoline. They do see $5.00/gal gasoline. They aren't smart enough to care about speculators, investors, and futures trading as concepts. They're pissed that Obama hasn't waved his magic wand and brought prices down. That's why Newt Gingrich (bad example perhaps, as he's all but out of the primary) has his main logo as a gas pump w/ "$2.50" inside of it.
Yes, they may be too dumb to vote, but they get to vote, and they do vote.
This will be a landslide.
Not as polarized as the country is. Democrats don't win landslides, Republicans do (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988). When was the last Democrat win w/, say, 400+ electoral votes?
The Republican candidates are dangerous enough that I'm actually going to vote against them and for a candidate that I don't really support much (Obama).
That's my thesis. The Mormons-are-duh-debil Republicans in the south will do the same for Romney. Hell, they've already embraced Santorum, and he's CATHOLIC. That means he'll burn in hell for an eternity for being an idolator (i.e., worshiping the pope and Mary). But that's good enough for President.
Like in sports, some catastrophic choke-job by Obama could occur, and "that's why they play the game", but if any of those clowns beat Obama, it would be a bigger upset than the Washington Generals over the Globetrott...ehh...OK, that analogy could be inappropriate so let's just say it would be an historic upset. Haa haa.
Like DMK said, voting laws are changing, gerrymandering just occurred. The Washington Generals may be jobbers, but they got to revise the rules of basketball, by themselves, before going up against the Globetrotters. Think the revisions were done just to make the game more fair and equitable, to generate a competitive outcome? Or that the Generals, I mean the Republicans, cribbed noted from Al Davis: Just win, baby, win?
Fair enough. That's much larger than anything he ever held over McCain:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
(trend lines, second graph down)
But we're in a bit of a different spot here, as this shit is gonna go until mid-Summer before we get a GOP candidate. June is my guess. Almost (almost) to the day, 4 years ago McCain became the GOP nominee (3/8/2004). Between that, state voting law changes, and Citizens United, I think a lot of our traditional views of election trends are going to get turned upside down.