The Election Handicapping Thread

elprincipe

elprincipe

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Thought this might be fun.

IMPORTANT: If you edit your post any time after November 6 (the day before Election Day) you are disqualified.

Predict the outcome of next Tuesday's elections for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. For example, here is my prediction:

House of Representatives (435 members, all up for election): 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans, 0 Independents

Senate (100 members, 33 up for election): 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, 2 Independents

Tiebreaker - predict the following 5 close Senate races:
New Jersey - Menendez beats Kean Jr.
Virginia - Allen beats Webb
Tennessee - Corker beats Ford Jr.
Missouri - McKaskill beats Talent
Montana - Burns beats Tester

Prize: Whoever is the closest will receive a videogame-related item (or items) from yours truly.
 
House: 235 Democrats, 200 Republicans (I'm shooting high, and if I lose, I blame Kerry ;) )

Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents (Jeffords *and* Lieberman, dude)

Tiebreaker (winner only listed):
NJ: Menendez
Virginia (Webb, barely)
Tennesee: Corker
Missouri: McCaskill
Montana: Tester

Prize or no, I just hope to be right!
 
The truth is, not all 435 seats in the house are up for grabs. There are several races where incumbents are unopposed. Currently, the breakdown is 231-201-1-2 (2 being vacant). There are 34 seats that are unopposed. Of those, the breakdown is 30-4 Democrat (Including one incumbent in Michigan named 'Cheeks'). I'm calling the final tally 218-217 Democrat.

The Senate? 49-49-2 (but with a Rep tiebreaker)


Garden State: Menendez
Virginia: Allen
Tennessee: Corker
Mizzou: Talent
Montana: Tester
 
House of Representatives:

217 Democrats, 218 Republicans, 0 Independents

Senate:
50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, 2 Independent

Tiebreaker
New Jersey - Menendez
Virginia - Allen
Tennessee - Ford
Missouri - McKaskill
Montana - Tester
 
Just a note of warning for you who select 1 Independent:

We already have one in Jim Jeffords (VT), and Joe Lieberman, running as an (I), is polling well ahead of Ned Lamont. I'll allow you a (b)mulligan if you like; then again, it's elprincipe's stuff, so perhaps he should have a say first.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Just a note of warning for you who select 1 Independent:

We already have one in Jim Jeffords (VT), and Joe Lieberman, running as an (I), is polling well ahead of Ned Lamont. I'll allow you a (b)mulligan if you like; then again, it's elprincipe's stuff, so perhaps he should have a say first.[/QUOTE]

I thought Jeffords isn't running for re-election.... but never mind, looks like an independent is going to succeed him anyway (thought Sanders was Democrat)
 
House:
228 Democrats
207 Republicans

Senate:
50 Democrats
48 Republicans
2 Independents

Football:
Da Bears: Ninety-tree
Da Dolphins: negative eleven

22_1_b.JPG




Sorry ... it felt like that last part belonged there
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Just a note of warning for you who select 1 Independent:

We already have one in Jim Jeffords (VT), and Joe Lieberman, running as an (I), is polling well ahead of Ned Lamont. I'll allow you a (b)mulligan if you like; then again, it's elprincipe's stuff, so perhaps he should have a say first.[/QUOTE]

As I said, you can edit your post (prediction) until the day before election day with no penalty, so if there are late-breaking events you can always modify your picks.

And Jeffords is retiring; Bernie Sanders (I) is running to take his place (and thus depriving the House of its only current independent).

I guess even though Lieberman is going to caucus as a Democrat he is running as an independent, so I am going to change my pick (I was putting him in with the Democrats). So if he and Sanders won it would be two independents (in name only, but still).
 
[quote name='evilmax17']So, what are the chances of the Dems taking the Senate?[/QUOTE]

They need 3 pickups and have 4 chances. Of those 4 (none projected yet)
Corker (R) will surely beat Ford (D)
Tester (D) may beat Burns (R) (only about 10% reporting at this time of post, though)
Talent (R) will probably beat McCaskill (D)
Virginia's a fucking mess. (EDIT @ 12:05 EST: Webb is now UP by 2,300 or so votes, thus reaffirming my point; we won't know who VA's senator will be until Friday at the earliest. Recounts FTW!)

I think the Democrats will only gain one more of the 4 remaining seats, keeping Republicans in the majority by 2 seats. A good run, and quite contrary to my predictions above, and pleasing results nonetheless. That's 4 more seats than we had this morning.

Some of the Republicans who lost include Lincoln Chafee, who was an (R) the Dems could count on to side with them on occasion. So, while they have more leverage tthan they did before, they (1) will still lack the majority, and (2) have fewer Republicans willing to side with them on some issues.
 
CNN keeps listing the current senate makeup as 48 (R) and 48 (D), with 4 races undecided; this is the 4 above. This is clearly placing the 2 Independents (Lieberman and the Vermont guy) in the Democrat category.

They're fuckin' with my head. I know Liberman wants to caucus with the Dems, but what about the Vermont dude? They're a lefty state, sure, but what about the guy they elected? Is he just a rabblerouser or someone the Dems can count on?
 
[quote name='mykevermin']CNN keeps listing the current senate makeup as 48 (R) and 48 (D), with 4 races undecided; this is the 4 above. This is clearly placing the 2 Independents (Lieberman and the Vermont guy) in the Democrat category.

They're fuckin' with my head. I know Liberman wants to caucus with the Dems, but what about the Vermont dude? They're a lefty state, sure, but what about the guy they elected? Is he just a rabblerouser or someone the Dems can count on?[/QUOTE]
Bernie Sanders, the new Senator from Vermont, caucused with the Democrats in the house and will do the same in the Senate. He describes himself as a Socialist... I don't think the Republicans would take him, to be honest.
 
Looks like I was just about right with my Senate prediction. We might be able to count the Socialist as a Dem, but Lieberman? There's quite a few things that he votes conservative on, so I wouldn't chalk that one up.

Here's an interesting thing: What if it's just like I predicted, 49-49-2? When it was 50-50, the GOP technically was the majority. But what this time? Who would be Senate Majority leader? Would it be a Democrat?

But jeez, who saw the House? I know myke said it, but I think you were more optimistic than actually expecting it.
 
Both Lieberman and Sanders have said they'd caucus with the democrats, so that'd give them dems the senate if Tester and Webb win, which looks more likely.
 
[quote name='CocheseUGA']But jeez, who saw the House? I know myke said it, but I think you were more optimistic than actually expecting it.[/QUOTE]

I was willing to bet money on it a month ago...
 
[quote name='CocheseUGA']But jeez, who saw the House? I know myke said it, but I think you were more optimistic than actually expecting it.[/QUOTE]

Is it sad that I hope that, of the remaining undecided seats, I hope that they only break for Democrats enough that my prediction is right? ;)
 
The vote difference between Tester and Burns translates into 0.008%. To have a recount, the difference must not exceed 0.25%.

In other words, wait for a Burns concession (not likely) or a recount call by Burns (more likely) before finalizing anything there.

That's good news, because the difference between Webb and Allen is larger than the difference in Montana (though roughly 8 times more people voted in Virginia).
 
Virgina numbers:

Allen 1,162,717 49%
Webb 1,170,564 50%
Other 26,048 1%

According to these numbers, the remaing votes left to count will not put Allen over the top

Senator-Elect Jim Webb currently leads by 7046 votes with 99.84% precincts reporting.


The SBE website has the following outstanding precincts:

1. James City County Absentee (C003)
2. One of two precincts in James City County called "Roberts B (0502)"
3. Raynor in Isle of Wight County.
4. Fairfax City Central Absentee Precinct (C011)

Now, I just spoke with the James City County registrars office. I was told there are no voters left to count in their county. Long story short, all of the voters in James City County live in Virginia's first district. The uncounted "precincts" of that county that are in VA-03 are part of the James River. There are no more votes for anybody outstanding here.

The last two districts will - at best for Allen- add only a few dozen votes for him. Based on '04 turnout numbers, Raynor only had 170 total voters (+17 for the GOP) and Fairfax City absentees went heavily for the Dems. Most likely, Webb's lead will grow slightly.

Expect Sen.-Elect Webb's current lead to remain largely unchanged - he will be certified the winner of this Senate seat. After that, Allen will be able to call for a recount.
(UPDATE: Fairfax City is done counting, and Webb's lead has grown. With only a maximum of a few hundred voters from that one tiny Isle of Wight precinct outstanding, Senator-Elect Jim Webb currently leads by 7132.)
Click to expand...

Unless something went horribly wrong somewhere, a recount won't turn up over 7,000 new votes for Allen. It's about a 0.33% difference, BTW.

Montana numbers:

Burns 188,900 48%
Tester 190,486 49%
Other 9,990 3%

The difference is actually 0.4%, not 0.008%.
 
That makes a big difference - for some reason I didn't include the "other" votes, and the difference is larger there. If it's over .25%, then Burns is SOL. The max % difference in VA is 1%, so really expect a recount there.
 
Well, let's entertain the possibility that Burns or Allen could win; if we have an even split (50-50, counting "Independents" that caucus as Democrats), who is the "senate majority/minority leader"?
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Well, let's entertain the possibility that Burns or Allen could win; if we have an even split (50-50, counting "Independents" that caucus as Democrats), who is the "senate majority/minority leader"?[/quote]

The Vice President. So it would be Republican Dick Cheney. Ugh.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Well, let's entertain the possibility that Burns or Allen could win; if we have an even split (50-50, counting "Independents" that caucus as Democrats), who is the "senate majority/minority leader"?[/QUOTE]


What I wanted to know was the 49-49-2 split. If you have that, the Independents aren't Democrats by rule. Do Dems get to be Majority because people lean liberal? I can't imagine that would be the case. I'd like to see the written rules if anyone has a link.


The recount trigger is .5% in Virginia, which would add up to 23-24k votes, if my math is correct. The shorter side is entitled to the recount, I don't know if Allen will do it.
 
[quote name='CocheseUGA']What I wanted to know was the 49-49-2 split. If you have that, the Independents aren't Democrats by rule. Do Dems get to be Majority because people lean liberal? I can't imagine that would be the case. I'd like to see the written rules if anyone has a link.[/QUOTE]

I think they agree to Caucus with one side or the other.
 
[quote name='CocheseUGA']What I wanted to know was the 49-49-2 split. If you have that, the Independents aren't Democrats by rule. Do Dems get to be Majority because people lean liberal? I can't imagine that would be the case. I'd like to see the written rules if anyone has a link.


The recount trigger is .5% in Virginia, which would add up to 23-24k votes, if my math is correct. The shorter side is entitled to the recount, I don't know if Allen will do it.[/QUOTE]

It seems Allen will probably ask for a recount. It is VERY close given the number of votes, but history suggests the result is large enough a recount will not swing it either way.

As for the results of the contest, we are still waiting on some undecided House races to figure out (in Georgia there are two, for example, and I think Simmons still in CT). I think the Senate is pretty much settled, even with the slim margins in VA and MT (they have both been called by the AP).

As for control, they vote on who will be majority leader. Democrats will have Sanders and Lieberman caucus with them unless something changes, and thus will be able to select a majority leader (Harry Reid). The question really is who will be the Republican leaders in the House and Senate, since Frist retired and Hastert has said he doesn't want the minority leader post.

Sorry I didn't post in this thread earlier; I was at work until after 2:00 AM.
 
[quote name='CocheseUGA']What I wanted to know was the 49-49-2 split. If you have that, the Independents aren't Democrats by rule. Do Dems get to be Majority because people lean liberal? I can't imagine that would be the case. I'd like to see the written rules if anyone has a link.


The recount trigger is .5% in Virginia, which would add up to 23-24k votes, if my math is correct. The shorter side is entitled to the recount, I don't know if Allen will do it.[/QUOTE]
Lieberman ran as an Independent, but he's still considered a Democrat. What happened really only affected the ballot.

Bernie Sanders (the other Independent) will caucus with the Democrats. He won the Democratic primary in that race, but he declined the nomination. Sanders was endorsed by Howard Dean, Charles Schumer, and Harry Reid, and Barack Obama campaigned for him. He worked with Democrats in the House for years. Sanders isn't one of these centrist independents, he's a too far left for the Democrats independent. He calls himself a Socialist.

Independents, by rule, are counted in terms of who the majority party is, if they caucus with a party, which they are. Plus, Lieberman counts as a Democrat anyway for those purposes. Even if Sanders didn't caucus with the Democrats, they'd still have the majority, 50-49-1.
 
[quote name='dafoomie']Lieberman ran as an Independent, but he's still considered a Democrat. What happened really only affected the ballot.

Bernie Sanders (the other Independent) will caucus with the Democrats. He won the Democratic primary in that race, but he declined the nomination. Sanders was endorsed by Howard Dean, Charles Schumer, and Harry Reid, and Barack Obama campaigned for him. He worked with Democrats in the House for years. Sanders isn't one of these centrist independents, he's a too far left for the Democrats independent. He calls himself a Socialist.

Independents, by rule, are counted in terms of who the majority party is, if they caucus with a party, which they are. Plus, Lieberman counts as a Democrat anyway for those purposes. Even if Sanders didn't caucus with the Democrats, they'd still have the majority, 50-49-1.[/QUOTE]

That's all I was looking for.
 
[quote name='elprincipe']Your boss is Bob Casey? Will you be coming to Washington?

BTW, congratulations![/quote]

No, unfortunately I'm not quite high enough in his administration to tag along with him. I'd love to go though. For now (and prob the future) I'm firmly planted in Harrisburg.
 
Okay, let's wrap this up.

With Allen conceding in VA today, that makes the Senate result 49-49 and 2 independents.

MSNBC has the House at 234-201 for the Democrats. I know there are some close races (Georgia 12 is less than 1,000 votes, Connecticut 2 is about 150 votes, Florida 13 is less than 400 votes, North Carolina 8 is less than 500 votes, Wyoming At-Large less than 1,000 votes), but we'll stick with the leaders.

For the tiebreakers:
New Jersey - Menendez beats Kean Jr.
Virginia - Webb beats Allen
Tennessee - Corker beats Ford Jr.
Missouri - McKaskill beats Talent
Montana - Tester beats Burns

Contest Results (low number wins):

elprincipe - 15 off in House, 1 off in Senate = 16
mykevermin - 1 off in House, 1 off in Senate = 2
E-Z-B - 15 off in House, 3 off in Senate = 18
CocheseUGA - 14 off in House, exactly right in Senate = 14
dopa345 - 17 off in House, 1 off in Senate = 18
maklershed - 6 off in House, 1 off in Senate = 7

Congrats, myke, looks like you win! Well done, that House prediction was pretty much on the money (a few more votes in one of the close ones and you would have been exact!). PM me and let me know what you play so I can pick something for a prize.
 
Huzzah!

Truth be told, I'm *swamped* with games. I'm going to work on Vice City Stories, finish Saints Row, and play Gears of War and FFXII (maybe FFV also) once I finish my comp exam next week.

I appreciate the offer, but perhaps a charity (Child's Play?) takes donated items, or at least a money equivalent? If they don't take items at all, don't worry about it. The gloating feels good enough. ;)
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Huzzah!

Truth be told, I'm *swamped* with games. I'm going to work on Vice City Stories, finish Saints Row, and play Gears of War and FFXII (maybe FFV also) once I finish my comp exam next week.

I appreciate the offer, but perhaps a charity (Child's Play?) takes donated items, or at least a money equivalent? If they don't take items at all, don't worry about it. The gloating feels good enough. ;)[/QUOTE]

That's a very classy gesture. I'll look into it and get back with you.
 
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