The Newest polls are in. Obama up nationally down in key states.

MSI Magus

MSI Magus

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http://www.reuters.com/article/poli...081104?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10112

Says that he managed to go up to 11 pts nationally however he is down to only a 2 point lead in Ohio 49/47 and a single freaking point in Florida

Florida I have always assumed he would loose, but I was at least holding out hope for Ohio. Lets see if as many such as me and Dead of Knight have predicted there are just too many closet racists in our state(say what you want but a Democrat would have swept this state normally and probably Florida too).
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']Obama will lose OH, FL, and VA, but win PA, and the election.[/quote]

LMAO. Someone doesn't understand how reliable statistical models are on this.

EVERYONE doing modeling is predicting an Obama landslide. Most of the same models predicted Bush wins in 00 and 04, without the election shenanigans.
 
Look, a black person has never run as a major candidate in a presidential election before. It's unprecedented. We have no previous, exact evidence to look back on. So I am still scared shitless.
 
All polls are meaningless. Young voters are going to turn out en masse. There should be a huge 18-35 vote this year and many people in that age group only use cell phones. They don't have land lines so are not included at all in the polls.
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']Look, a black person has never run as a major candidate in a presidential election before. It's unprecedented. We have no previous, exact evidence to look back on. So I am still scared shitless.[/quote]

Fine, but at least understand what the Bradley effect is before citing it. There is no convincing argument for it to even exist any longer.
 
[quote name='Capitalizt']All polls are meaningless. [/quote]

Why do people who don't understand statistics always say this :X?
 
[quote name='nathansu']Fine, but at least understand what the Bradley effect is before citing it. There is no convincing argument for it to even exist any longer.[/QUOTE]

I disagree.....but hope your right.
 
I think the thing with everybody is: Obama looks poised to win, but so did Gore and Kerry, so naturally Dems are on edge because we're so used to having defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
 
McCain's chance is zero.



I'm taking statistical physics right now.. anything too improbable to warrant attention is zero.
 
[quote name='Koggit']McCain's chance is zero.

I'm taking statistical physics right now.. anything too improbable to warrant attention is zero.[/quote]


The troll is strong with this one.

It's more than likely going to come down to Virginia. Wet ballots are the rage there it seems. How are ballots wet inside? I don't know. But if they wanted to be this year's Florida, all they had to do is ask.
 
[quote name='Koggit']McCain's chance is zero.
I'm taking statistical physics right now.. anything too improbable to warrant attention is zero.[/QUOTE]
You can never model with certainty all relevant data when the relevant data hasn't been cast yet.

I agree with Broly. I think if Obama wins Virginia, he's going to kick the shit out of McCain across the map. If not, this thing may get really tight.
 
[quote name='Purple Flames']I think the thing with everybody is: Obama looks poised to win, but so did Gore and Kerry, so naturally Dems are on edge because we're so used to having defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.[/QUOTE]

That's not true. The polls were close, with Bush having small leads in key states in 2000 and 2004.

Especially 2000, Gore did better in the popular vote than polls had him showing leading up to election day. Kerry had some leads over the summer, but was a few points down by election day.

[quote name='speedracer']Y
I agree with Broly. I think if Obama wins Virginia, he's going to kick the shit out of McCain across the map. If not, this thing may get really tight.[/QUOTE]

I think it's Virginia, Ohio, Florida. If Obama gets at least one of those it's a pretty easy win, if he loses all 3 it will be very, very tight. But I think he get's at least one of those.
 
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I remember my friend called me at like 5 PM in 2004 to tell me how exit polls projected Kerry to win a bunch of the states he ended up losing. I will believe it when I see it.
 
[quote name='lordwow']I remember my friend called me at like 5 PM in 2004 to tell me how exit polls projected Kerry to win a bunch of the states he ended up losing. I will believe it when I see it.[/QUOTE]

Thus why I said I dont care if its a big win or a small win as long as its legally recognized. Even if Obama wins big McCain has sold his soul already this election so he probally wont go out with dignity and honor nor will he put country first. Instead he will fight with every legal means possible and bitch and moan.
 
[quote name='MSI Magus']Thus why I said I dont care if its a big win or a small win as long as its legally recognized. Even if Obama wins big McCain has sold his soul already this election so he probally wont go out with dignity and honor nor will he put country first. Instead he will fight with every legal means possible and bitch and moan.[/QUOTE]

Hehehe, "Country First."
0627_countryfirst.jpg


This is funny:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/john-mccain-cant-stop-say_n_140618.html
 
[quote name='botticus']LA Times editorial says the Bradley Effect has never really existed. The polls were skewed due to underrepresentation of gun-control freaks in pre-election and exit polling.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-bradley4-2008nov04,0,738332.story[/QUOTE]

Again still not sure I believe there is no bradly effect but I am hoping you are right as I am hoping the anaylists that said people will vote for Obama who normally wouldn't just to say they voted for the first black guy are right as well.

Looking around and watching videos again today makes me hope he wins so badly. I have lost track of how momentous this would be forgetting Obama would be the first black president since I have been so wrapped up in my dislike for McCain/Palin. Seeing old black men crying or hardly having the ability to stand yet wait in line for hours to vote. It really makes me hope he wins not just for the sake of the issues.....but also for all these elderly black people who really feel this is their moment, this is their hope.
 
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