Since I jumped into the HD disc fray in November of 2006, I've bought three HD DVD players (HD-A1, which has since been sold, and two HD-A2s, both of which I still own), and two Blu-ray players (PS3, which I just sold, and Panasonic DMP-BD10A, which replaced the PS3). Counting the free movies from both formats that I have yet to receive from my last player purchases, I have 56 Blu-rays and 42 HD DVDs. The only thing I plan on doing is grabbing a second Blu-ray player for my bedroom, for the 42" plasma we just got in there, when I can get one for less than $200. I would have kept the PS3, but I got a killer deal on a Marantz SR9600XM receiver, so to pay for it I ditched my PS3 and all my games, as well as my receiver that the Marantz replaced. I got a good price on the BD10A, and like it as well as the PS3, except for the longer loading times. I'm used to that with the HD DVD players, anyway.
I knew that there was a chance that one or both HD formats could fail, and if HD DVD does go away, Blu-ray still isn't out of the woods. The proliferation of DVD, which is still in the scheme of things a relatively new technology, along with the confusion and complexity of HD for the average TV watcher, are the big opponents for either HD format. I don't believe that HD downloads will be a serious threat any time soon, as you're not going to get the quality of a HD disc from either a video or audio standpoint, not to mention all of the extra features of a movie on disc.
The biggest thing Blu-ray has going for it IMO is Sony's desperation to see it succeed. They'll do everything they can to see it succeed. I'm not sure Toshiba is, or even should be, willing to go that far.
One thing I think that all of the HD player and game system manufacturers need to start doing is to include HD-capable cables in the box with their systems. Every system should have both component video and HDMI cables in the box, along with a big poster telling people they must use one of those cables to get HD picture quality from the player. No telling how many people have their PS3s hooked up to an HDTV with the composite video cable that came in the box with it. When I bought an Xbox 360, at least it came with a component video cable.
One thing I wonder is if HD DVD does die, will Toshiba come out with a Blu-ray player?