Which May Movie Will Have The Biggest Weekend Gross?

DrunkTigerWoods

DrunkTigerWoods

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I think it's hard to say which one will have the biggest opening. There's a lot of hype for spider-man 3 but both shrek and pirates' previous films were huge and broke records. And all 3 films appeal to a wide audience of families, teenagers, and adults. Also feel free to estimate how much they will make.
 
For some reason I think Pirates will take the cake with Spidey coming in second and Shrek coming in third. ;)
 
Had to vote Shrek. I just think that the younger folks will want to see it and then they'll drag their parents/brothers/sisters to go see it.
 
I'm going with Spider-Man 3.

The hype and advertising is what made me say that. I've seen a few Shrek commercials but I haven't seen a single Pirates 3 commercial. Although I'm thinking Pirates will get 2nd and Shrek will get 3rd.
 
[quote name='bobo2k4']Spiderman 3

Wasn't Spiderman 2 the biggest movie opening ever?[/quote]

That would be Pirates of the Caribbean 2 and Spider-Man before it. Spider-Man 2 opened below the original Spider-Man.
 
I didn't even know Pirates 3 was coming out this month and I don't see Shrek 3 getting anywhere near as high grossing as the other two. I voted Spider-Man 3.
 
Pirates. Its made by Disney the other two grossed huge amounts of money. They left the last one via cliffhanger. I think it'll beat them all. Spidey 3 is only going to have the hardcore fans going to see it. Pirates is going to have a ton of kids to see it.
 
[quote name='Graystone']Pirates. Its made by Disney the other two grossed huge amounts of money. They left the last one via cliffhanger. I think it'll beat them all. Spidey 3 is only going to have the hardcore fans going to see it. Pirates is going to have a ton of kids to see it.[/QUOTE]
I highly doubt that.

I'm not a hardcore spiderman fan by any means. I haven't read any of the comics yet I'm extremely excited to see the movie.
 
[quote name='whoknows']I highly doubt that.

I'm not a hardcore spiderman fan by any means. I haven't read any of the comics yet I'm extremely excited to see the movie.[/QUOTE]

but why are you going to see it?

I don't like Spider-man and Toby ruined any chance I have of liking the spider man movies.
 
[quote name='PenguinMaster']I didn't even know Pirates 3 was coming out this month and I don't see Shrek 3 getting anywhere near as high grossing as the other two. I voted Spider-Man 3.[/QUOTE]


Exactly what I was thinking. EVERYONE knows when Spidy is coming out, and everyone is talking about it - I haven't heard any buzz at all on Pirates. Some talk from friends about Shrek, but I don't see it doing that big.

As far as what holds what record, this is what CNN had to say in an article this week:

"Spider-Man" took in $114.8 million in its first weekend in 2002, a three-day opening that remained an all-time high until "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" set a new record last summer with $132 million.

In 2004, "Spider-Man 2" opened on a Wednesday before a long four-day Fourth of July weekend and took in a record $180.1 million in its first six days.
Click to expand...

So yeah, Pirates 2 currently holds the record for standard 3-day weekend openings, but Spidy 2 taking in 180 in its first six days was hardly a slump for the series. AFAIK that's still the record for a 6-day holiday opening weekend.
 
[quote name='JJSP']Hate to say it, but Spidey.

Why? Because Shrek and Pirates open the same weekend.[/quote]
Shrek opens 5/18 and PotC3 opens 5/25.

PotC3 will win because it has Memorial Day weekend. Game over.

[quote name='PenguinMaster']I didn't even know Pirates 3 was coming out this month and I don't see Shrek 3 getting anywhere near as high grossing as the other two. I voted Spider-Man 3.[/quote]
You will see more than enough of Shrek 3 and Potc3 promos after Spidey opens.
 
[quote name='neocisco']Shrek opens 5/18 and PotC3 opens 5/25.

PotC3 will win because it has Memorial Day weekend. Game over.

You will see more than enough of Shrek 3 and Potc3 promos after Spidey opens.[/QUOTE]
Ahh, I stand corrected - I read ComingSoon wrong. In that case, I'd have to agree.
 
[quote name='Graystone']but why are you going to see it?

I don't like Spider-man and Toby ruined any chance I have of liking the spider man movies.[/QUOTE]
Because I liked the other two and I think Spider-man is a cool character.
 
[quote name='JJSP']Hate to say it, but Spidey.

Why? Because Shrek and Pirates open the same weekend.[/QUOTE]Maybe not, but they're close enough. We saw the box office do shitty this week, supposedly in anticipation for Spiderman 3
 
Here's some more fuel for the debate, from IGN:

Spidey 3's Global Domination
Your friendly worldwide wallcrawler!
by Stax

May 2, 2007 - Spider-Man 3 opens domestically Friday in 4,253 theaters, the widest release ever in North America, but the film's already doing record-setting business in the dozen international territories where it's already opened. It bowed Tuesday in Asia, where it has already beat Spider-Man 2's opening day tally in both Japan and South Korea.

According to Variety, Spidey 3 opened in Japan to $3.47 million and $3.44 million in Korea. The film had the biggest opening of all time in Hong Kong ($958,984) and also had record bows in Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines.

Spidey 3 opens Thursday in China, Australia and Russia, and debuts Friday in the United Kingdom and India. The sequel is already doing phenomenal business in Italy, Germany and France. Spidey 3 raked in an estimated $4 million in Italy, $4.6 million in Germany and $1.4 million from Paris alone.

These are just opening day estimates; imagine what the final tallies will be Monday!
Click to expand...

http://movies.ign.com/articles/785/785031p1.html

And something else to keep in mind about Pirates' opening Memorial Day weekend - you'll still have people going to see Spiderman 3 & Shrek 3 that weekend, so that's something to consider.
 
[quote name='whoknows']Because I liked the other two and I think Spider-man is a cool character.[/QUOTE]

I see, Pirates has the advantage with the holiday weekend.
 
I think Shrek is going to suffer because it opens the same weekend as Pirates.
I'll go with Pirates here, with Spidey a close second, and Shrek a not-so-close third.
 
Definitely Spider-Man.

Shrek there's not that much anticipation for, and Pirates just had one last summer, so it won't be as popular. The current tracking for Spidey is saying that it will break the all-time opening weekend record, so we'll see.
 
[quote name='abhinav']This poll fails at life. How anyone can say anything other then SPIDERMAN 3 just scares me.[/quote]Maybe because Pirates 2 grossed more in it's opening weekend than Spider Man 2 did, and the last Pirates movie is still fresh in peoples minds, which means they are more eager to see the 3rd one?
 
[quote name='sleepwalkers']I think Shrek is going to suffer because it opens the same weekend as Pirates.
I'll go with Pirates here, with Spidey a close second, and Shrek a not-so-close third.[/quote]No it doesn't.
 
[quote name='bobo2k4']Spiderman 3

Wasn't Spiderman 2 the biggest movie opening ever?[/QUOTE]

Nope, broken by Aquaman starring Vince Chase ;)
 
I am going to vote for Shrek simply because it has the shortest playing time and thus, it will play more often in the movie theater.

Pirates has the longest playing time and that will limit the amount of times it will be shown in theater.

To be honest though, I could be completely wrong with my answer.
 
I'd say Pirates...with the word of mouth spreading about Spider-Man 3 just being so so I don't think it will reach the momentum that it was hyped up to have.
 
[quote name='DrunkTigerWoods']So will Shrek 3 be able to top $151 million this weekend? I think it wont, it will open between $115-130 million.[/QUOTE]

I think that's an extremely generous estimate.
 
People in the movie business know this is a no-brainer; S-M3 opened to absolutely no competition, while Shrek has to fend off S-M3 and POTC has to deal with both. Kudos to either film if they manage to do it, but it's highly unlikly, even with all the shenigans revolving around the opening weekend of POTC, which starts in the middle of next thursday :lol:

[quote name='LinkinPrime']I'd say Pirates...with the word of mouth spreading about Spider-Man 3 just being so so I don't think it will reach the momentum that it was hyped up to have.[/QUOTE]

belive it or not, word-of-mouth has little to do with people seeing a movie, just look a X3 and what it was able to achieve, despite bad word-of-mouth over a year before it's release. Besides, outside some critics and a very small minority that's very vocal (thanks internet!!), most of the buzz around S-M3 was positive.
 
I don't think Shrek 3 is actually gonna open with over $100 million, because I loved the first two but the trailers for this one make it look like a horribly lame sitcom, and the reviews seem to agree with that now too. Shrek, I'll say will make maybe around $80 mill this weekend
 
[quote name='LinkinPrime']I'd say Pirates...with the word of mouth spreading about Spider-Man 3 just being so so I don't think it will reach the momentum that it was hyped up to have.[/QUOTE]

I change my vote to Transformers. Yeah, I know its not an option, but just wait and see.
 
Well, color me surprised by Shrek 3. I finally got around to seeing Spidy last Thurs and well...kinda wish I hadn't. I really enjoyed the first two, so I figured the bad buzz was just from people who never liked the franchise anyway. Guess I was wrong...

I hate going to the theater, too - it has to be something I REALLY want to see to make me not just wait for dvd. Looks like Transformers will probably be the next movie I go & see.
 
I'm going to give it to Pirates 3.

[quote name='mykevermin']The Condemned. :lol:[/QUOTE]

If this was biggest flop in May then The Condemned already has won that. :lol:
 
I read an article stating that while Pirates will undoubtedly have an amazing opening, it won't beat Spidey's opening for a simple reason: the movie is longer, thus theatres won't be able to show it as many times per day as they did with Spidey.

Dunno if it actually has an effect, but it's an interesting notion.
 
[quote name='LinkinPrime']I change my vote to Transformers. Yeah, I know its not an option, but just wait and see.[/QUOTE]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the word is going around that Transformers is going to be this years Godzilla 2000 / Lost In Space.

[quote name='Ricochet']I read an article stating that while Pirates will undoubtedly have an amazing opening, it won't beat Spidey's opening for a simple reason: the movie is longer, thus theatres won't be able to show it as many times per day as they did with Spidey.

Dunno if it actually has an effect, but it's an interesting notion.[/QUOTE]

It's 10-15 minutes longer, with the theatre I work at showing it more times than Spider-Man 3, thanks in part to actually opening on a Thursady (Guess thursday is the new start of the weekend).

Sorry Pirates fans, but S-M3 will more than likely have the bigger opening, just because of being the first out of the gate. If it doesn't, then it will be because Pirates launched on a day ealier than S-M3. Either way we'll never get a true "winner" because the suits to be keep trying twist the rules in their favor.

[quote name='Dead of Knight']fucking insane at Shrek 3's turnout. I didn't think it'd beat Spider-Man 3, and it didn't, but still, fuck.[/QUOTE]

Again, with movies as hyped up as these three, bad reviews and word-of-mouth will have almost no effect on the Box Office Returns. Especially when it comes to the people on the internet, who still only account for a very, very, very small minority. I thought everyone smartened up when Snakes on a Plane absolutely bombed.
 
[quote name='-Never4ever-']

Sorry Pirates fans, but S-M3 will more than likely have the bigger opening, just because of being the first out of the gate. If it doesn't, then it will be because Pirates launched on a day ealier than S-M3. Either way we'll never get a true "winner" because the suits to be keep trying twist the rules in their favor.

[/QUOTE]

It's got nothing to do with the last release breaking opening weekend records and the advance sales for this one being estimated at around 2-3 three times higher with some analysts predicting a dollar amount around of $180 mil. Extra showings or no (it's not a full day actually), my guess is Pirates 3 would possibly beat Spidey 3's opening anyways.
 
[quote name='Duo_Maxwell']It's got nothing to do with the last release breaking opening weekend records and the advance sales for this one being estimated at around 2-3 three times higher with some analysts predicting a dollar amount around of $180 mil. Extra showings or no (it's not a full day actually), my guess is Pirates 3 would possibly beat Spidey 3's opening anyways.[/QUOTE]

And then you're overlooking the fact that Pirates 2 launched during a mediocre summer in the perfect spot. It had no where near the level of competition it does now. To put it bluntly, if S-M2, Shrek 2 and Pirates 2 all launched like their third parts are now, Pirates wouldn't have done nearly as good as it did. It's just a product of good timing.

And where's your numbers for those preorder? As it stands right now, we have less than 100 tickets sold, most for the midnight showing on thursday. Compare that to last year, where we sold all 4 shows (that's over 1,200 tickets) by the day before. We ended having to open a FIFTH showing that also sold out. That's a grand total of well over 1,500 tickets, with at least 1,200 before hand. Granted, there's still two days to go, but so far the general opinion is that Pirates will walk away with a big opening, and it probably beat Shrek.

If it makes anyone feel better, I'm sure Pirates will be the better movie quality-wise, but this isn't about what movie is better.
 
[quote name='-Never4ever-']And then you're overlooking the fact that Pirates 2 launched during a mediocre summer in the perfect spot. It had no where near the level of competition it does now. To put it bluntly, if S-M2, Shrek 2 and Pirates 2 all launched like their third parts are now, Pirates wouldn't have done nearly as good as it did. It's just a product of good timing.

And where's your numbers for those preorder? As it stands right now, we have less than 100 tickets sold, most for the midnight showing on thursday. Compare that to last year, where we sold all 4 shows (that's over 1,200 tickets) by the day before. We ended having to open a FIFTH showing that also sold out. That's a grand total of well over 1,500 tickets, with at least 1,200 before hand. Granted, there's still two days to go, but so far the general opinion is that Pirates will walk away with a big opening, and it probably beat Shrek.

If it makes anyone feel better, I'm sure Pirates will be the better movie quality-wise, but this isn't about what movie is better.[/QUOTE]

Just like bad reviews you mentioned earlier, competition doesn't mean all that much in cases like this. That will affect overall gross maybe, but opening weekend everyone will turn out in droves to see a film regardless, then it'll have a large drop off. Just look to Spidey 3 for a very recent example. Competetion matters much more when two films compete in the same weekend, but the only competition here is from repeat viewings of another movie. Shrek could possibly offer some competetion from repeat viewers but in this case I don't think it'll really matter and Spidey is a good 3 weeks old and already tapering off.

As for numbers, they're from movietickets.com and fandango IIRC. Perhaps you're not including online sales or maybe you are and it's still not matching up but I'm just reitering the reports I've seen in the news. These are the first matching google results:LINK LINK

I'm not saying Pirates 3 is a lock to be the winner of sorts here cuz it's the most awesome movie ever or anything like that. Hell, I clearly have no idea as I've yet to see it as well. I'm just making a case for why I think it could be the opening gross winner for May based on what I've heard/seen.
 
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