Who Thinks McCain Has a Shot at Winning?

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mykevermin

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Whether it's a sudden shift in the polls, a scandal that manages to work against Obama, vote count fraud, Diebold, or another Supreme Court Special, here's something to know: Barack Obama is president elect of not a damn thing as of today.

So who here thinks McCain has a shot at winning on Tuesday? Why or why not?
 
He has a still has a shot at winning. There are still a lot of undecided voters which may vote for McCain. There is the possibility that Obama's illegal aunt will get tons of coverage on all the news stations making it a big deal before the election. Perhaps Obama's TV ad came off too elitist to some folks. Maybe McCain's appearance on SNL will convince some to vote for him. A lot can happen in the next 48 hours.

McCain has to win all the swing states left (Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida) and Pennsylvania to win and its still possible that he could.
 
He's sure got a shot but the chances of him actually winning are looking really slim. I honestly can't see him winning.
 
Sure there's a chance. There still are a couple of days to go. We may get some "buyer's remorse" going around. It's not a big chance, since Obama seems to have a strong lead. McCain will have to hit the jackpot in multiple states to win. If I were a betting man, of course, I wouldn't be putting any money on McCain at this point.
 
Never say never? I'm sayin never. My Jewish wife has a better chance becoming the new leader of the Nation of Islam than McCain has of winning.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. The rising tide of liberalism is going to fundamentally change the landscape of politics, just like 1994 for the Republicans.
 
I keep thinking of the Bush clan smugly sitting at their compound in 2000 with nothing to worry about even after things were seemingly going Gore's way and the exit polling in 2004 indicating that Kerry was handily taking Ohio.

I know enough to never underestimate the power of stupid people (the ones who buy into the Socialist, Terrorist, and Arab BS). I hope to be suprised on Tuesday, but I don't see Obama winning.
 
[quote name='niceguyshawne']I keep thinking of the Bush clan smugly sitting at their compound in 2000 with nothing to worry about even after things were seemingly going Gore's way and the exit polling in 2004 indicating that Kerry was handily taking Ohio.

[/quote]

:cry:

seriously, i worry about fraud. what can we do
 
theres a chance. polls arent 100% accurate. but i dont think its a good chance unless theres a scandal, bradley effect, or fraud or some type.
 
There's just so much overt/covert racism that this election's just dripping in, I can't really give the "Bradley effect" (bka Social Desirability bias in my world of work) much credence.
 
[quote name='freakyzeeky']^^ Vote early if you can[/quote]
... and often!

(Chicago-style)
 
Besides the racism angle, what are the chances people will vote for McCain just to purposefully fuck things up? The vote for "chaos" ?
 
I think he has a chance. At this point, I think it's 50-50. Polls can be misleading. I think it's going to come down to one state. Someone is going to win the popular vote, but lose the election. We'll see who that is.
 
Never say never, but I think Obama would have to run down a little white girl with his car for things to change enough for McCain to pull it off.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if McCain does win. Obama supporters are certainly the loudest, but that's not to say that McCain doesn't have his own silent following, and who knows what the undecided are going to do.

Either way, we're screwed.
 
There are ruffly 8 swing states, ALL of those states have an average poll that have McCain and Obama within 5 points of each other. There is a great chance of McCain winning, I would say a 52% chance he will win. Never count out the racists, vote fraud, ect.

Plus the polls are terrible, Obama is gaining in West Virgina? Please, give me a break.

McCain will most likely win come Wednesday... or Thursday... or next year....
 
I was on the DC metro and some city teenagers were accosting people, surrounding them, getting in their face and asking who they were voting for. I think everyone has seen a variation on this act. People always gave the answer they wanted, but I know people make choices for all sorts of reasons and I wondered how many votes were switched to McCain right there. It won't matter in DC but when you see shocking stupidity like that it lends anecdotal support to theories such as the Bradley effect on both sides. I just cannot figure why you would want to take something so historic and twist it back into the same old ugliness. Stupid ignorant kids.
 
Fivethirtyeight still gives Obama an around 93% chance of winning. I trust them more cause they're not cherry-picking or simply averaging polls. They're actually using models and demographics and weighing polls differently.
 
[quote name='evanft']Fivethirtyeight still gives Obama an around 93% chance of winning. I trust them more cause they're not cherry-picking or simply averaging polls. They're actually using models and demographics and weighing polls differently.[/quote]

do you know how the predicted 4 years ago? cuz that would be very telling...
 
[quote name='billyrox']do you know how the predicted 4 years ago? cuz that would be very telling...[/quote]

Well that's a problem for this election anyway since most of the polling aggregators didn't exist before. I agree with camoor though that I think fivethirtyeight will come out with a more realistic prediction since they pay a lot more attention to the intricacies of polling. The others will be close, but they do less predicting and more aggregating as it is - which is why looking at RCP will just show you that there are a lot of tossups.
 
[quote name='billyrox']do you know how the predicted 4 years ago? cuz that would be very telling...[/quote]

This is the site's first election.
 
I think he does have a chance. It might be better if the media talks about Obama's 'bankrupting the coal industry' comments. Also, when most polls have it at 3-5 points, then you have one poll saying +13 for Obama...you know something's wrong with that poll.
 
FOX News is trying to do everything to ruin Obama. Last night on Hannity, they had BREAKING NEWS. Obama is trying to bankrupt the coal industry. If someone from Ohio or Indiana took them seriously, it might make them consider voting for McCain over Obama.
 
You got a guy that's pretty much Bush and may say ANYTHING to get the job but go back to doing the same thing Bush has been doing...

or

You got a guy that is overly ambitious and WILL NOT be able to deliver on the promises he keeps promoting.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't care about anything else but at this point I'd rather have the latter.

edit: Although... the thought about the Democrats having FULL control is quite disconcerning. I'd rather have nothing get done than to get even worse than we are already.

Basically, were screwed either way.
 
Seriously, I know it's a popular thing to say, but I really don't buy into the idea that we're screwed either way. I'm sure there are a lot of people feeling complete apathy towards politics in general after the last 8 years, but you've got to believe that Obama or McCain will have learned from past mistakes and at least try to take the country in a better direction. Though I feel McCain has run a progressively more pathetic campaign and I voted for Obama, I also realize that a McCain presidency won't mean the end of days.
 
[quote name='onikage']Seriously, I know it's a popular thing to say, but I really don't buy into the idea that we're screwed either way.[/quote]

Comes down to "favors" and Bush is proof of that... I'd say McCain would have a lot more favors to fill if he won.
 
I think his chances of winning are slim, but not impossible. The polls are decidedly inaccurate, but the early voter turnout is overwhelmingly Democratic, which I think bodes for a large victory for Obama.
 
I think he's winning, I do :(

I think it'll be a mixture of fraud AND whites who are saying "YEAAAH OBAMA.. ::secretly votes for white man::"
 
i'm a little more optimistic.. and hopeful... but still cautious... less than 24 hrs to go baby.... YES WE CAN-GO OBAMA
 
I think there's a chance he'll do better than expected, but no chance he wins. So I voted the 3rd option in the poll.
 
I think McCain will win Ohio at least. All the votes are funneled to a 3rd party who then tells the secretary of state what the numbers are. The same company who delivered Ohio to Bush in 2004, and the same company who "lost" 5 million Cheney emails.

I'm not sure of the likelihood that he will be able to steal ALL the other states he needs.
 
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[quote name='dmaul1114']I think there's a chance he'll do better than expected, but no chance he wins. So I voted the 3rd option in the poll.[/quote]


There is a great chance he will win, and pretty fairly too. Who will win will be decided by maybe 10 sates, all those states have polls were it is almost too close to call.

There is even, I'd say a 5% chance of a tie at 269 each. What I fear is Obama will win the popular vote by 3-5 million, and McCain will win the real thing.

Here is a good site, I have spent hours on, if you want to mess around with how each one would win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
 
I dont know what polls you are looking at. My site is 538. If votes are counted as cast, there is absolutely zero chance of McCain winning. None. Though if you want to get technical, its like 4% :|
 
Never say never. I am predicting an Obama landslide but my fingers are crossed. If this goes to the overtime in the Supreme Court, McCain wins.
 
[quote name='depascal22']It wasn't actual votes but it is kind of weird.[/quote]

I read it again... At first I thought they were actual votes :lol:
It still worries me, because according to the article those documents has voter information, and the info of those who need a ride to go to the polls. What if those voters are Democratic? or even Republican? Wouldn't they miss out on voting because someone didn't receive a memo to go pick them up? IDK, it worries me since Florida is a swing state and all... :\
 
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