There was a lot of similar doom and gloom when the Wii launched that countered a lot of the wide-eyed optimism.
At that time, I suggested strongly that we'd need to wait two years minimum to see what would happen. Those two years saw a few basic trends:
- the sell through was incredible, with shortages lasting a good while
- there was a good dosage of "late" third party support as they tried to play catch up
- the usual post-release drought interspersed with high profile 1st party games
Following that, the sales continued almost solely based on first party releases, with the occasional release from someone other than Nintendo directly. Third party support largely dwindled, which has always been a convoluted problem because the issue is multi-faceted (competing with Nintendo's own games, the games themselves being poorly made, no support from Nintendo in terms of advertising, a slew of shovelware clogging up the shelves, etc).
The deal though is that the sales continued largely until the end of 2011; it's really only been this year that they've dropped off, which again is the result of several things.
The Wii U is going to follow a similar path, at least initially. The sell-through for this year is almost all but absolutely guaranteed. Following that, it will depend almost entirely on first party games to drive further sales - the first 3D Mario, Retro's project, franchise titles, ultimately Smash Bros, etc. There may be a third party game here and there that ends up being exclusive, or at least a multiplatform title that helps keep the system in the gamer community's eyes.
We won't know how well it can perform until E3 2013 at the earliest, when it's likely that Sony and Microsoft will announce their next-gen systems. At that point, either third parties will move on with projects - most American based dev houses are already doing this - or they will continue to go after the established Wii U userbase (which will almost entirely depending on sheer mnumbers or hardware/software sold). If the former happens, then it's the Wii situation all over again, at which point you have to re-assess the market trends and see what is going on. If it's the latter, Nintendo is sitting fairly pretty.
The Wii's entire premise was disruption. The Wii U's is an alternate of this - shock and awe. Nintendo is betting on entering the market with at least a year without competition by dropping a new system in to re-invigorate the home market. Part of this strategy relies simply on "people want something new." Part of it relies on showcasing a unique interface. Part of it is trying to appeal to third parties more this time around; I suspect we'll see more Nintendo-as-publisher deals going down rather than hoping that a third party upholds their exclusivity agreement (think Capcom in the Gamecube era).
We can debate all we want right now, but we won't know for a
year minimum, and really two years is more realistic. It's going to heavily hinge on when Sony and Microsoft are planning to release their systems, how well the Gamepad drives sales, and whether or not third parties start to feel more comfortable on a Nintendo system. If one of those things goes wrong but two go right, Nintendo is ok. If two or more go wrong, they are in trouble. I'm not counting on a three-for-three scenario.
I wouldn't start advertising until October at the earliest. The system is already getting sold out on pre-orders. I have no idea if that means the entire first run of production or is simple the pre-order production. Either way, it's going to have an installed base by December, and if third parties are smart, they'll get their best offers out on the table right now to get in on early adopter sales. You can decry this all you want as ports and whatnot, but faced with a brand new system, people WILL buy games, and Nintendo is leaving the door open (again, though not as brazenly as with the 3DS) for third parties to be successful.
They've also practically wrapped up Japan already, with Monster Hunter and Bayonetta. That's a big cornerstone of their strategy; we'll see how it pays off. A lot of people have noticed that Nintendo seems to be aggressively hunting down franchises that started on the NES/SNES - Shin Megami Tensei, Dragon Quest, etc - and trying to bolster it with some modern day hardcore titles (again, Bayonetta).
Come back in a year and we'll talk.