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A Return to Reality
Missile defense wasn't the answer.
By canceling plans to station antiballistic-missile systems in Poland and the Czech Re-public, President Obama has traded fantasy for reality. Keep in mind a few facts about missile defense. Since the 1980s, the United States has spent well over $150 billion to develop such systems. That's more than the total cost of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo mission to the moon. Yet in 25 years the program has not produced a workable weapons system, something unprecedented even in the annals of the Pentagon's bloated budgets. A group of leading scientists, including 10 Nobel laureates in physics, wrote a letter to Obama in July, arguing that the Polish and Czech interceptors "would offer little or no defensive capability, even in principle." That's why the Bush administration proposed deploying the system only in 2018, by which point, it hoped, the thing would actually work.
Then there are the threats that these systems are meant to guard against. The nuclear-arms expert Joseph Cirincione pointed out to Congress recently that the threat from ballistic missiles "has steadily declined over the past 20 years. There are fewer missiles in the world today than there were 20 years ago, fewer states with missile programs, and fewer hostile missiles aimed at the United States. Countries still pursuing long-range-missile programs are fewer in number and less technologically advanced than 20 years ago." These numbers are indisputable.
The Iranian weapons program is a potential danger—but to Israel and the Gulf states, not Poland and the Czech Republic. Obama's new proposal—to station short- and medium-range-missile interceptors on ships in the region—is a workable system attuned to the actual threat. This is reality-based defense policy.
So why does it leave a bad taste in the mouth? Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national-security adviser and someone who has always been attentive to Eastern Europe's security, supports Obama's decision but says the administration handled things poorly: "In the way it conveyed the decision, it humiliated two staunch allies that had gone out of their way to embrace U.S. policy." Missile defense has never enjoyed much public support among Poles or Czechs, presumably because they don't believe Iran is planning to lob missiles at them. But Brzezinski notes that "for the governments of those countries, it had become a test of American reliability and support. The administration should have recognized the importance it had taken on."
The timing of the announcement, on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, symbolized the botched diplomacy. Poland's prime minister re-fused to take a midnight call from Obama and then Hillary Clinton, referring the latter to his foreign minister.
The Europeans' real fear, of course, is Russia. The Poles and Czechs worry that the United States is getting soft, and will allow Moscow renewed influence in Eastern Europe. Russia itself declared missile defense a roadblock to cooperation with Washington. But to continue with a bad policy simply because the Russians don't like it is not a sensible basis for U.S. strategy.
Will Russia now become more helpful on Iran? Moscow does not feel the same urgency about Tehran that the United States does. Confrontation between America and Iran would hike the price of oil—bad for the United States and China, but good for Moscow. A military attack would probably result in Iranian retaliation in Afghanistan and Iraq, keeping U.S. forces bogged down there.
And yet the Russians are being moderately helpful. They have deliberately delayed delivery of an antiaircraft defense system, the S-300, to the Iranians (and also refused to sell them the more advanced S-400). Russian language on Iran has toughened. I met with President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow last week, and he went out of his way to insist that Iran must cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Russia was opposed to any nuclear-weapons program, and that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statements about Israel were "unacceptable." "The basic framework of U.S.-Russian relations should be that we want good, cooperative, and productive relations," says Brzezinski. "If Russia wants to flirt with Venezuela, fine. And if Poland wants closer security ties with the West, that should also be fine." In the long run, a better working relationship with Russia could mean lowered tensions everywhere, starting with Eastern Europe.
On missile defense, the Obama administration did the right thing for the right reasons, in the wrong way. It needs to fix the fallout and move on.
Obama’s Big Gamble
Working with the world, not against it.
At his United Nations debut, Barack Obama urged global cooperation to combat nuclear proliferation, climate change, and other problems that go beyond the borders of any one country. The speech was well received all over the world, except one place—America's right-wing netherworld, which quickly began whipping people into a frenzy. For Michelle Malkin, the speech was evidence that Obama was "the great appeaser," though she then went on to say, "From the sound of it, you'd think you were listening to Thomas Jefferson." (That's bad?) For Rush Limbaugh, Obama's speech was "basically a coup against America." At the National Review's Web site, a debate broke out—an entirely serious debate among serious people—as to whether the speech proved that Obama actually wanted the world's tyrants to win, in the tradition of past intellectuals who admired Mussolini and Hitler. This is the discourse of American conservatism today: Obama is bad because he loves death panels and Hitler.
There is a serious case to be made that it's not worth taking the United Nations seriously, that it's an anachronistic institution based on 60-year-old geopolitics and a platform for tyrants and weirdos. But while much of that is true, the United Nations is the only organization in the world to which all countries belong, and as such, it does have considerable legitimacy. And that means power. As David Bosco points out in Foreign Policy magazine, over the past two decades the Security Council has authorized "more than a dozen peacekeeping missions, imposed sanctions or arms embargoes on 10 states, and created several war crimes tribunals to prosecute those responsible for genocide and crimes against humanity, including sitting heads of state." It's worth putting in the effort to shape its decisions.
Obama's speech was part of a calculated strategy. In sentiment it recalls Richard Nixon's line after losing the California governor's race in 1962: "You don't have Nixon to kick around anymore." Obama was telling the world: the United States is willing to be cooperative, to rejoin international institutions, to adhere to treaties. But in return, other countries will have to help solve some of the world's common problems. You can't just kick us around anymore.
Let's go back just one year. Many countries had come to believe that America showed little interest in the world. This hostility had become an easy excuse to reject even modest concessions to U.S. requests. If this sounds partisan, recall that after he was elected president of France in 2007, the pro-American conservative Nicolas Sarkozy was asked by Condoleezza Rice what she could do to help him. "Improve your image in the world," he said.
There is a phony realism brandished on the right these days that says no one will ever cooperate with America. Russia and China have their own interests, and any attempt to find common ground is naive. We might as well all hold hands and sing "Kumbaya." Now, of course countries have their own interests, which are often in conflict. But they also often share some common interests. A central task of diplomacy is to explore those areas of agreement, build on them, and thus create a more stable world. That's why we have treaties on everything from trade to taxation, adhered to by most nations for their collective benefit.
In fact, Obama's approach has already produced remarkable results. Russia and China, after long opposition, agreed last week to a toughening of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. And in a striking shift, Russia signaled that it may support tougher sanctions against Iran. The Obama administration's decision to cultivate a relationship with both countries, to listen to their concerns, is paying off.
Obama's outreach to the world is an experiment, and not just to see if the world will respond. He wants to demonstrate at home that engagement does not make America weak. For decades, it's been thought deadly for an American politician to be seen as seeking international cooperation. Denouncing, demeaning, and insulting other countries was a cheap and easy way to seem strong. In the battle of images, tough and stupid always seemed to win.
Obama is gambling that America is now mature enough to understand that machismo is not foreign policy, and that grandstanding on the global stage just won't succeed. In a new world, with other countries more powerful and confident, America's success—its security, its prosperity—depends on working with others. It's a big, bold gambit. I hope it works.
Nothing unreasonable about that. I think we should go about it a different way, but that's just difference of opinion.That is $6 billion per year, well less than the pork-barrel earmarks larded around by our incompetent and corrupt Congress every single year, far less than wasteful defense spending every single year -- heck, less than was allocated to a high-speed rail boondoggle in the "stimulus" bill. So forgive me if I don't think that's too much to pay for what I consider one of our top defense priorities.
Agreed 100%.To pay for it, I applaud Secretary Gates's efforts (with some success) to cut wasteful defense spending such as on the F-22 and presidential helicopters. That's just a start; there are plenty more things that are just eating up money that can go to useful things (like missile defense and the equipment our soldiers actually use).
That's not true. There HAS been a war between two nuclear armed countries. MAD doesn't really even work. It's morality that works.2. Mutually assured destruction works. Again there has never been a war between nuclear armed countries.
Leaders know what is at stake.
Terrorism is a different issue, but you don't attack the state for that unless it was a nuclear attack with weapons the state supplied--and that is our current policy already anyway. Otherwise you threaten the state to root help root out the terrorists.
So we'd probably be killing less civilians in that case that we have in the past 50+ years of playing world police.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2006/jun/02/comment.usaAgain it is four short words, though the distortion is worse than in the Khrushchev case. The remarks are not out of context. They are wrong, pure and simple. Ahmadinejad never said them. Farsi speakers have pointed out that he was mistranslated. The Iranian president was quoting an ancient statement by Iran's first Islamist leader, the late Ayatollah Khomeini, that "this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time" just as the Shah's regime in Iran had vanished.