Xbox 360 Mountain Dew 10 Min. Giveaway...

[quote name='$hady']Strategy - From the 1st Certified Winner on this board!

You are retarded! LOL

There is no real strategy to winning. The more caps you enter into a drawing, the better your odds of winning it. If one drawing has 800 and the one after it has 500 enter the smaller one, that's a strategy...You can't break it down it's luck! Wanna come up with a system for me to win the lotto? ;)
[/QUOTE]

Please, I didn't guarantee anything! It's just a strategy guide, that I put time into. Please do not flame me again.
 
[quote name='Haggar']So, Dord,

In your opinion. . .

Last night I entered 10 caps into a 4am slot and lost. Tonight I was planning on doing another 10 caps in a single slot.

Should I do 2 caps in 5 different slots instead?

Just trying to pick your brain.[/QUOTE]

2 caps in 5 diffrent slots. If they are low amounts than usual. If not 5 caps in 2 diffrent slots could work.
 
[quote name='The Dord']Please, I didn't guarantee anything! It's just a strategy guide, that I put time into. Please do not flame me again.[/QUOTE]

LOL i'm not attacking you i just found it funny! ;):bouncy:
 
This is not the lotto. Lotto goes with chance and number configurations, this contest is FAR easier to win something. over 9k xbox 360's are going to be given away.. Far simpler to win a 10 min sweep slot (Because face it, you only have to put a cap in it, dont have to put in a numerical sequence) than to even attempt to win the lottery.
 
I just found Code Red and Live Wire for $0.66 a bottle at a grocery around here. Combined with Open Pantry have 2 - 4 - $2, I might get my code count higher.
Peace
coltcannon
 
I had an hour and a half after class before I had to pick my wife up, so I went around campus looking through as many trash cans I could find. All together I gathered 25 caps, not bad for just walking around.
 
30-a-day is a good amount, thats what I found a day, and I only spent like 10 minutes doing it. Did it two days, then I won.
 
damn 30 caps in 10 minutes, you are a beast. I have alot of time between my classes so it doesnt matter that much for me to just look around. Im debating whether my friend and i should just start entering a few in contests right now, we were gonna wait to get 500 and try to just pretty much by one out, but it seems as with the longer time goes, more people come and you wont be able to do that.
 
[quote name='Captain Flaps']How would they know if you got the codes from ebay or not?[/QUOTE]

[quote name='The Dord']They know your name and address, they could do some searchin on ebay.[/QUOTE]


Um..... no.... they can't. Yes, they can search ebay like the rest of us, but not your address.... Ebay does not work like a phone book.
 
[quote name='Machikunas']Um..... no.... they can't. Yes, they can search ebay like the rest of us, but not your address.... Ebay does not work like a phone book.[/QUOTE]
Well, yes they can search ebay, if give yourself away too well they coul catch on in theory :)

For coolcps: It was easy to get the caps in that amount of time. People did not give a flying fuck about them at all. Only us CAG and nerds would of taken the caps and used them. The knowledge of the contest isn't too far spread yet... Plus its an Internet Only promotion, so that leaves some of the poorer or less tech savvy out of the contest automatically.
 
[quote name='The Dord']
Strategy - From a Certified Winner ​
v1.1
(last updated 9/8/05)​



Okay, heres the lowdown, but a few notations first:​
  • Looking for caps - Ask your friends at work or ask your parents to ask their friends at work to save you the caps. (This is the quickest way to get the caps if people are generous or don't give a darn about the contest)
  • Purchase single 20oz/1 Liter bottles of Dew/Pepsi/Sierra Mist. (or Diet if you prefer)
  • Save your caps after you enter them, just in case something bad happens in the contest. (High unlikely)

And now the lowdown:​


  1. I stress this enough (Or your a chance freak - go ahead) DO NOT PUT ONLY 1 CAP INTO A 10-Minute sweep. Not only are your chances low, but you just wasted a valueable cap! The odds are not in your favor with this!
  2. Look over the sweeps for a few hours, jot down the average amount of caps. Also look at nightly sweeps as well. (12am-5am est)
  3. MINIMUM of 2 caps per 10 minute sweeps grants you much better odds than you had before. (EG 1/1000 becomes 1/500)
  4. Law of diminishing returns happen after 4 caps *UNLESS* you use the shotgun approach down below.
  5. The Invested Approach: putting 2-4 caps within multiple (more than 10 sweeps) 10 minute sweeps adds greatly to your favor as well.
  6. The Shotgun Approach: putting more than 100 caps in a single sweep can heavily put it in your favor** (EG 1/10) but make sure that you don't waste all your precious caps in one swing and then LOSE, then you want to commit suicide! Also, contest with lower-than-average caps work with this.

**Overtaking low sweeps can give you better than 1/4 odds in your favor.


Some Timing Strategies:​


  • Best time to put caps in is in Late-Night contests, when the kiddies are in bed BUT not on the weekend Late-Night contests (friday or saturday night).
  • The Shotgun approach works best on the days and weekends, when there is the most caps (unless you see a great -lower than average- sweeps it works that way) Plus intimidation factor can approach in when someone sees that a 300 cap sweep suddenly becomes 500, no one will want to join in
  • The Invested approach works well on late night contest with more than average amount of caps or so. ( 2 caps with more than average, 4 with less than average)
  • The earlier in the contest (this month before the second week of October) is the best time to enter.. The further along you wait, the higher chance you'll never see contest with low caps ever again.


As thing in life, there is no guarantees, so don't complain if you lose if you use one of my strategies.. If you win using then. Give credit where credit is due so others can read this and know it works for them. The contest ends on the last day of October, 11:50pm drawing.

Oh, and good luck! I hope you win :)​

(Edit: Mods, if you like what you see, PM me and I can make a thread and you can sticky it.. )​
[/QUOTE]

Wow....it was nice of you to take the time to type that up, but it was a waste.
How many times do I have to say that the odds are the same either way!!

Let's say we have 200 caps.
According to you, we should spread out our entries by putting 2 into each time slot. Let's say the average time slot has 500 entries.
So we put 2 caps into 100 different times. For each of the 100 different time slots, we will have a 1:250 shot at winning. That's an overall 40% chance of winning.

My suggested method, the one which I won by, is to put all 200 of our codes into one time slot, which will yield 2:5 odds, also a 40% chance.

Either way, you have the same odds, but in my opinion, it is much easier to dump all of your codes into one time. That's also how most of us have won.

Plus, with my method, you can put all of your codes into the newest available timeslot. Then, your time will have 200 codes, and the times surrounding yours will have 0-5. Which time do you think the other people are going to enter now?? The one with 200, or the one with 3? Obviously they will enter the other time slots with lower entries, not yours, thus increasing your odds even furthur.

That is why my method is the way to go.

But if you still insist yours is better, just remember THE ODDS ARE EXACTLY THE SAME!
 
[quote name='TJordan522']Wow....it was nice of you to take the time to type that up, but it was a waste.
How many times do I have to say that the odds are the same either way!!

Let's say we have 200 caps.
According to you, we should spread out our entries by putting 2 into each time slot. Let's say the average time slot has 500 entries.
So we put 2 caps into 100 different times. For each of the 100 different time slots, we will have a 1:250 shot at winning. That's an overall 40% chance of winning.

My suggested method, the one which I won by, is to put all 200 of our codes into one time slot, which will yield 2:5 odds, also a 40% chance.

Either way, you have the same odds, but in my opinion, it is much easier to dump all of your codes into one time. That's also how most of us have won.

Plus, with my method, you can put all of your codes into the newest available timeslot. Then, your time will have 200 codes, and the times surrounding yours will have 0-5. Which time do you think the other people are going to enter now?? The one with 200, or the one with 3? Obviously they will enter the other time slots with lower entries, not yours, thus increasing your odds even furthur.

That is why my method is the way to go.

But if you still insist yours is better, just remember THE ODDS ARE EXACTLY THE SAME![/QUOTE]

Actually the odds aren't the same. The odds are much worse using dord's method of using 2 caps per drawing. Using the same figures as you just described (500 entries and 200 total caps), no matter how many drawings you put 2 caps in, your chance of winning would never go above 1/250. You can't just add all the codes together and come up with 40%. You are going to have a 1/250 shot throughout the whole contest if you enter 2 codes in each drawing and this is why it is a horrible way of playing the odds. In the end, it all comes down to luck, but I'd certainly want statistics to be on my side and you get that by putting the most codes in the drawing with the smallest number of entries. There is no statistical strategy that is better than or equal to that one.

Another way to look at this is to take the reverse odds of the situation and apply it to your life. Which would you rather have, a 60% chance that you will be eaten by a bear or a 249/250 (99.6%) chance that you would get eaten by a bear over and over again. That's right, with dord's "investment" approach you have a 99.6% chance of losing each and every drawing. "Shotgun" is the only way to improve your odds.
 
[quote name='shipwreck']Actually the odds aren't the same. The odds are much worse using dord's method of using 2 caps per drawing. Using the same figures as you just described (500 entries and 200 total caps), no matter how many drawings you put 2 caps in, your chance of winning would never go above 1/250. You can't just add all the codes together and come up with 40%. You are going to have a 1/250 shot throughout the whole contest if you enter 2 codes in each drawing and this is why it is a horrible way of playing the odds. In the end, it all comes down to luck, but I'd certainly want statistics to be on my side and you get that by putting the most codes in the drawing with the smallest number of entries. There is no statistical strategy that is better than or equal to that one.

Another way to look at this is to take the reverse odds of the situation and apply it to your life. Which would you rather have, a 60% chance that you will be eaten by a bear or a 249/250 (99.6%) chance that you would get eaten by a bear over and over again. That's right, with dord's "investment" approach you have a 99.6% chance of losing each and every drawing. "Shotgun" is the only way to improve your odds.[/QUOTE]

Very good observation shipwreck. Wow....how did I screw that one up so badly lol. And I love your analogy with bears haha.

So, in conclusion, The Dord's method blows. He just got lucky.
 
i do not think that the whole shotgun thing would help now because the average 10 minutes is getting up above 800 or more. so even if you put it all in a new slot and the ones around it are empty its still going to even out. I know that means that you get the first 200 out of that 800, compared to enterting 200 on one thats about to end with 800 making it 1000, but as the more people are playing strategies arent going to help as much and its all about the luck now.
 
[quote name='coolcps']i do not think that the whole shotgun thing would help now because the average 10 minutes is getting up above 800 or more. so even if you put it all in a new slot and the ones around it are empty its still going to even out. I know that means that you get the first 200 out of that 800, compared to enterting 200 on one thats about to end with 800 making it 1000, but as the more people are playing strategies arent going to help as much and its all about the luck now.[/QUOTE]

I'm hoping that in a few weeks the contest might die down some and by then I will have 200-250 codes to drop in one slot, making the odds swing in my favor a little bit more.
 
[quote name='coolcps']i do not think that the whole shotgun thing would help now because the average 10 minutes is getting up above 800 or more. so even if you put it all in a new slot and the ones around it are empty its still going to even out. I know that means that you get the first 200 out of that 800, compared to enterting 200 on one thats about to end with 800 making it 1000, but as the more people are playing strategies arent going to help as much and its all about the luck now.[/QUOTE]

No matter when you put them in, 200 out of 800 is still giving you a 25% chance of winning. This is a far better chance than the less than 1% chance of winning you will have by putting 8 or less codes into the same drawing. The "shotgun" approach is still your best chance at winning no matter how big the drawings get.
 
[quote name='ajh2298']I'm hoping that in a few weeks the contest might die down some and by then I will have 200-250 codes to drop in one slot, making the odds swing in my favor a little bit more.[/QUOTE]
I'm hoping the same thing, but at the rate I'm getting codes, I'll be lucky to end up with 50, never mind 200 or more. I don't like Pepsi or Mountain Dew at all, so I'm hitting up everyone I know, everyone I work with, whatever, and I'm not having a whole lot of luck. I'm also worried that the contest will only continue to pick up steam as more and more people become aware of it (I heard about it through CAG, but only just saw a commercial for it on TV yesterday) and by the time I decide to enter my few meager points, the drawings will be averaging 1,500 or more.
 
I am so sick of Mountain Dew. The smell alone is starting to make me gag.

I've actually purchased about 35 bottles of Mountain Dew, Diet Mountain Dew, and Diet Pepsi. My car and refridgerator are filled with Dew. I even have some bottles in the fridge at work.

I've been buying them in batches of about 10, and entering them all into a single timeslot. Last night I tried 15 codes spread out over an hour an a half (a few codes in many slots).

I'd rather not save up a bunch (100+) codes because I think as the codes become more available, the contest will get harder (codes are just appearing on the East Coast). So as soon as I get 10 or so I enter them into early morning slots.

I've decided that my limit will be $100 worth of soda, that's basically 25% of the Xbox 360 price, and the limit I'm willing to spend to try to "win" one.

The worst thing, and I'm not proud to admit this LOL, is Target has the sodas at the cheapest price ($1.07 per 20oz). But they only have Diet Pepsi. I hate Diet Pepsi, and no one I know will drink it, so last night I bought 5 bottles, walked out the front door of Target and pulled off the 5 caps and tossed all the Diet Pepsi into the garbage can.

My next step will be to send SASEs for "free" codes, but at this point I'd rather buy the sodas because I don't have to time to send off a bunch of handwritten SASEs.

Some day I'll look back on this and laugh. Good times.
 
Trying to scim through the 8,000 topics regarding this giveaway; but I can't find out if this is the premium 360 they're giving away. I'm sure it's been mentioned, but I can't find shit.

Anyone know?
 
[quote name='Brak']Trying to scim through the 8,000 topics regarding this giveaway; but I can't find out if this is the premium 360 they're giving away. I'm sure it's been mentioned, but I can't find shit.

Anyone know?[/QUOTE]

Yes, it's the premium. Somebody called and asked at one point.
 
[quote name='Brak']Trying to scim through the 8,000 topics regarding this giveaway; but I can't find out if this is the premium 360 they're giving away. I'm sure it's been mentioned, but I can't find shit.

Anyone know?[/QUOTE]

Yes it is.

edit: crap shipwreck beat me to it!!
 
[quote name='Brak']Trying to scim through the 8,000 topics regarding this giveaway; but I can't find out if this is the premium 360 they're giving away. I'm sure it's been mentioned, but I can't find shit.

Anyone know?[/QUOTE]

Someone posted that they called the customer service number after winning and was told it's the premium version of Xbox 360.
 
[quote name='Haggar']I am so sick of Mountain Dew. The smell alone is starting to make me gag.

I've actually purchased about 35 bottles of Mountain Dew, Diet Mountain Dew, and Diet Pepsi. My car and refridgerator are filled with Dew. I even have some bottles in the fridge at work.

I've been buying them in batches of about 10, and entering them all into a single timeslot. Last night I tried 15 codes spread out over an hour an a half (a few codes in many slots).

I'd rather not save up a bunch (100+) codes because I think as the codes become more available, the contest will get harder (codes are just appearing on the East Coast). So as soon as I get 10 or so I enter them into early morning slots.

I've decided that my limit will be $100 worth of soda, that's basically 25% of the Xbox 360 price, and the limit I'm willing to spend to try to "win" one.

The worst thing, and I'm not proud to admit this LOL, is Target has the sodas at the cheapest price ($1.07 per 20oz). But they only have Diet Pepsi. I hate Diet Pepsi, and no one I know will drink it, so last night I bought 5 bottles, walked out the front door of Target and pulled off the 5 caps and tossed all the Diet Pepsi into the garbage can.

My next step will be to send SASEs for "free" codes, but at this point I'd rather buy the sodas because I don't have to time to send off a bunch of handwritten SASEs.

Some day I'll look back on this and laugh. Good times.[/QUOTE]

Wow...that's all I can say, is wow.
You are exactly the type of person Mountain Dew was counting on when they ran this promotion.
It is WAY CHEAPER for you to send away for those free Target codes! Don't waste your money on the soda if you don't even like it. Especially if you don't even drink it lol.
Plus, you are wasting your entries by entering many contests. Enter them all into one....even if you only have 30-50 codes, it's still a way better shot than spreading them all out.
 
[quote name='TJordan522']Wow...that's all I can say, is wow.
You are exactly the type of person Mountain Dew was counting on when they ran this promotion.
It is WAY CHEAPER for you to send away for those free Target codes! Don't waste your money on the soda if you don't even like it. Especially if you don't even drink it lol.
Plus, you are wasting your entries by entering many contests. Enter them all into one....even if you only have 30-50 codes, it's still a way better shot than spreading them all out.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, I know LOL.

I like Mountain Dew, just not in mass quantities.
 
I'm going to start doing this w/ my meal plan at school. Last year I ended up w/ $50 that I did not use that just went to waste ($100 really, since everything is half off w/ it). I spent an hour today going to every dining hall on campus scouting out the ones w/ pepsi and mountain dew, since there are mostly coke products.
 
In my opinion, I believe that the entries in each time slot will soon be over 1000 and stay over 1000, perhaps even topping 2000 per time slot, for the remainder of the contest. Tons of people have posted here on CAG and everyone I've talked to are saying that the bottles w/ the 360 caps can't be found in their areas. (They are still hard to find around me) I would think that most people, that have actually found these caps, are in the process of stockpiling them with the goal of increasing their chances of winning one. When these caps become more readily available across the country, and when people start entering their stockpiled codes, the entries are going to go up dramaticly. I think that the number of entries in each time slot has already see the lowest numbers and that there is only one way to go from here... UP! I believe that the days of 300-500 entry time slots is over for good. But, once again, this is just my opinion.
 
[quote name='TJordan522']Very good observation shipwreck. Wow....how did I screw that one up so badly lol. And I love your analogy with bears haha.

So, in conclusion, The Dord's method blows. He just got lucky. [/QUOTE]

Please don't flame, thanks. Saying something blows isn't constructive critism. I'd admit the shotgun approach is more feasible. It is an everchanging FAQ, my young padawan.
 
Strategy - From a Certified Winner ​
v1.4
(last updated 9/10/05), moved from page 18.​



Okay, heres the lowdown, but a few notations first:​
  • Looking for caps - Ask your friends at work or ask your parents to ask their friends at work to save you the caps. (This is the quickest way to get the caps if people are generous or don't give a darn about the contest)
  • Don't be afraid to raid trashcans at public places! This might be frowned upon, but boy you will sure have a good story to tell your friends!
  • Purchase single 20oz/1 Liter bottles of Dew/Pepsi/Sierra Mist. (or Diet if you prefer)
  • Rarity (as of the week of 9/4-9/10) of the caps will soon pass, expect contests to be harder to win at the last week of September 'till the end of the contest especially with the specially marked 12/24 packs of cans having multiple codes (Which are, as we speak, trickling out the places like the first caps did in late August).
  • Save your caps after you enter them, just in case something bad happens in the contest. (High unlikely)
  • If you win the contest, you will get a Party in a Box Kit within 2-3 weeks of your confirmation (It includes Five (5) Hats, Five (5) T-shirts, Two (2) 12-pack coupons for Mt. Dew products, and other offers), and also recieve the $399 retail version of the Xbox 360 (Premium) the Saturday before it becomes available in Retail Outlets. Approximate value of all of this is Five Hundred and Eighty Dollars ($580).
  • Confirmation can take up to 3-5 days, check your ACCOUNT HISTORY often. You may not get an E-mail that tells you to check it.

And now the lowdown:​


  1. I stress this enough (Or your a chance freak - go ahead) DO NOT PUT ONLY 1 CAP INTO A 10-Minute sweep. Not only are your chances low, but you just wasted a valueable cap! The odds are not in your favor with this!
  2. Look over the sweeps for a few hours, jot down the average amount of caps. Also look at nightly sweeps as well. (12am-5am est)
  3. MINIMUM of 2 caps per 10 minute sweeps grants you much better odds than you had before. (EG 1/1000 becomes 1/500)
  4. The Shotgun Approach: putting more than 100 caps in a single sweep can heavily put it in your favor** (EG 1/10) but make sure that you don't waste all your precious caps in one swing and then LOSE, then you want to commit suicide! Also, contest with lower-than-average caps work with this.

**Overtaking low sweeps can give you better than 1/4 odds in your favor. (Don't count on this for long, the further into the contest, the less of a chance your going to find a low sweep)


Some Timing Strategies:​


  • Best time to put caps in is in Late-Night contests, when the kiddies are in bed BUT not on the weekend Late-Night contests (friday or saturday night).
  • The Shotgun approach works best on the days and weekends, when there is lower-than average caps (unless you see a great -lower than average- sweeps it works that way) Plus the intimidation factor can approach in when someone sees that a fresh sweep getting 500 caps, people will be more reluctant to join
  • The earlier in the contest (this month before the second week of October) is the best time to enter.. The further along you wait, the higher chance you'll never see contest with low caps ever again.


As thing in life, there is no guarantees, so don't complain if you lose if you use one of my strategies.. This is a game of chance, but it can be in your favor.

If you win using then. Give credit where credit is due so others can read this and know it works for them.

The contest ends on the last day of October, 11:50pm's drawing. There will be up to 9,222 sweepstakes drawings.
​

Oh, and good luck! I hope you win :)​
 
[quote name='$hady']^ LOL still waiting on your infomercial. ;)[/QUOTE]

Infomerical, what are you getting at? I'm not selling a product. If a FAQ is an infomercial, then Gamefaqs is a Channel with non-stop infomercials (not even talking about the forums! That would be a non-stop HSN channel selling fake gold jewelry :rofl: )
 
[quote name='The Dord']Infomerical, what are you getting at? I'm not selling a product. If a FAQ is an infomercial, then Gamefaqs is a Channel with non-stop infomercials (not even talking about the forums! That would be a non-stop HSN channel selling fake gold jewelry :rofl: )[/QUOTE]



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what the fuck is going on?
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[quote name='Machikunas']................................................
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what the fuck is going on?
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I was asking that same question to $hady. He's been flinging poo in every thread I have posted lately..

Like this gem:

$hady: ^ LOL still waiting on your infomercial.

He's my special stalker.
 
[quote name='The Dord']Please don't flame, thanks. Saying something blows isn't constructive critism. I'd admit the shotgun approach is more feasible. It is an everchanging FAQ, my young padawan.[/QUOTE]

I apologize.
 
[quote name='The Dord']I was asking that same question to $hady. He's been flinging poo in every thread I have posted lately..

Like this gem:

$hady: ^ LOL still waiting on your infomercial.

He's my special stalker.[/QUOTE]


I dont fling poo in every thread you post, I've replied to you in both threads which you posted your "system"...... I just find great join in your "system" and how you present it as the gospel. ;):D The bottom line is you got lucky and you won your way just as i got lucky and won my way.
 
As I reflected and realized, the invested approach only worked if you were a lucky person. But it isnt working so I scrapped it, favoring the shotgun approach. :) Read it now a few posts back and you can see I changed alot.
 
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