To be fair, all of these discounted Gold MS deals are ymmv. The $39.99 12 months was widely available for the last couple of weeks for many people's accounts. Now the $14.99 3 month deal looks to be taking its place. However, that doesn't mean some people won't have both offers on their account. So ymmv should be taken into consideration with all of these types of deals.
not one post or pic of the $39.99 12 months deal.. NOT ONE.
However I can see a previous subscriber being offered the $39.99 12month deal on their last month or so.. No doubt thats happening but thats NOT what this deal is about..
Based on the posts in this thread, and the XBOX page itself this seems to be a deal anyone can get regardless if they have zero months of xbox LIVE Gold or 2-3 years stacked as several here have reported success with either status.
As far as the ones NOT seeing it, seems more of a user error/issue i.e. ctrl+F5 to clear browser cache..