[quote name='icpmattj']Whats the chance of DS lites price drop once the DSI comes out?[/QUOTE]
Virtually nonexistent, and at best, maybe down to $109.99. Maybe.
Think of this as the GBA/DS set up a few years ago - Nintendo is trying to position these things as separate entities that satisfy different markets. Where the GBA was the gaming device, the DS was going to offer new touchscreen controls and originally be its own unique platform. Then the sales took over, and the GBA was no longer viable. In short, it's DS vs GBA Round 2, but with the DS replacing the GBA and the DSi replacing the DS (which sounds confusing, but you have to drive the point home).
During that time (again, "round one," so 2004-2005), however, the GBA never really dropped in price. So I suspect the same will happen here - Nintendo is going to call the DSi more of a portable media device versus the DS, which is now seen as their prime gaming handheld. This justifies having "high" prices on both, since it's like any company maintaining multiple offerings of the same base product, but each having a slightly different focus. Car companies would be a good comparison.
Don't argue with me on this if you hate semantics - I'm just going by what I imagine Nintendo's execs will do. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt it.
I imagine if DS sales stall by mid-year, we might see a price drop in the fall at earliest, with a small, small chance of it happening during the summer. If the DSi stalls by summer (which I think it might), expect a price drop for it by then. This goes by the reasoning that it releases in April, which I think it won't - I'm thinking September at the earliest, especially when you consider things like peripheral sales that use the GBA slot, as well as the fact that the DSLite is having a hell of a year in America.
So, as for the thread itself: I think the launch date is off, the price sounds accurate. Until DSware really appears, there won't be much of a reason to plunk down for the system, especially since third parties aren't going to support it until it reaches a multimillion install base here in the states, and 10+ million worldwide.
These are my guesses.