[quote name='Zoglog']Actually when you examine the # of people likely to go next gen in the format initially, the PS3 offers quite a bargain for early adopters. You underestimate the # of PS2 owners out there and how selling PS3s could force a signifigant change in the adoption of the new technology. Just because games are not as large as the latter market does not mean it could provide a distinct advantage. You're just looking at it from the wrong angle and assume you need 100% boost in order to gain huge market over HD-DVD. It's the gathering of elements thta provide the boost needed. If you notice on the list Bluray currently has the majority of support and cheaper discs. The Ps3's price point of 600 is extremely comparible to HD-DVD players.
Also you ignored the other point that now Sony has a huge stake in the film industry. Ever heard of sony columbia tristar? or maybe that MGM is owned by Sony now? You're just taking a previous formula of the betamax failure and assuming it'll apply here without looking at the current evironmental factors. The best HD-DVD can hope for at this point is some sort of hybrid. Of course Cnet would restrain from making predictions since making a correct one would provide them with nothing, but falsely assuming could result in major loss of credibility.[/quote]
First of all, since when are Blu-Ray discs cheaper than HD-DVD discs? Looking at Amazon.com Blu-Ray movie prices range from $20-27 and HD-DVD movies range from $20-25. It's also well known that Blu-Ray discs cost more to manufacture simply because current DVD manufacturing technology can be tweaked cheaply to make HD-DVD whereas Blu-Ray requires new equipment.
Secondly, I think your over estimating the effect of PS3 on Blu-Ray sales. Like I've said before, uptake of both formats will be slower this time because for most of the population (at least in the US) it will require purchasing a new TV. Most people are not going to buy a new TV AND a PS3 and a bunch of Blu-Ray movies at the same time. I'm willing to bet most PS3s will be played on SDTVs just like probably most 360s are right now, and will be for a while. I can't speak on Japan because I don't know for sure HDTV uptake over there, but it's irrelevant because the format war, probably unlike the console war, WILL be decided in the US. Whatever takes off here first will be the dominant format for the world. Japan is the center of power for videogames, no doubt, but the US is undoubtedly the center of power for the worldwide movie industry.
Third, I think your also over estimating the clout of Columbia Pictures. Spiderman and a couple other movies aside, they've been releasing commercial flop after commercial flop. MGM isn't much better off, unfortunately for them. Then again, if MGM was doing good, Sony wouldn't have been able to buy them out.
This is all not to say that Blu-Ray is already down for the count, but just that I disagree with you on these three points. I think this 'format war' is closer than any industry person is willing to admit.