[quote name='wampa8jedi']The 360 still has almost twice the user base of the PS3 in America....[/QUOTE]
Exactly. While I'm happy to see PS3 sales on the up-and-up, fanboys and gamers who think the PS3 is suddenly past all its troubles are really misreading the situation. I'm not a 360 fanboy (don't even have it) but I've been in this industry long enough to know whatever alleged turnaround Sony has seen is far from being a solid indicator that it's going to somehow turn the tide this generation. Even most of my developer friends think Sony at this point is more concerned with trying to salvage its PlayStation brand for the next go-around than trying to catch up to either MS or Nintendo.
First of all, forget Japan. Sure, the 360 has all but failed there -- but that's neither here nor there. Japanese developers still matter but MS never legitimately thought the 360 would ever win over there (they're not stupid, the original XBOX was a disaster and it's not as if they have homebase presence like Nintendo to leap from last to first in one generation). Everything MS has done is really all for "street cred." (and yes, companies like MS will burn money for street cred -- don't believe me? Just look at the first Xbox's profit margins -- or, lack thereof). Sure, MS is paying dearly to get exclusives (Ace Combat, Tales, Star Ocean, Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon and Ninety Nine Nights) but MS is looking towards its brand ... XBOX may never succeed in Japan but that it's there at all does several things (1) it reminds Japanese developers that MS is here to stay, (2) exclusives slowly build brand association, and (3) it helps MS build research/data for the next system. As much as the 360 remains US-centric, MS has certainly made design changes to better cater the system to buyers in the East.
So what am I getting at? The PS3 is solid console, to be sure, but this generation has not been very kind to the PS brand. No matter how one cuts it, Sony has taken major blows to the head. Not only has the less-powerful, arguably less-functional Wii taken #1, but even Microsoft has formidably given Sony a run for second. Let's be honest, even MS couldn't have expected Sony to goof up as badly as it did.
The goof-ups have been severe. Whatever exclusives Sony has left need to get the console to #2 and there's a lot of doubt whether any Uncharted, Killzone, Ratchet or White Knight can get it there. There will be games like Heavy Rain, but mass appeal titles like GTA are now cross-platform for good. Even if Sony were to somehow eliminate the penetration gap in NA (which is really doubtful), no self-respecting publisher is going to keep a game exclusive to the PS3 w/o demanding Sony pony up cash for it. As big a co. as Sony is, it's not the type to go around throwing cash around for exclusives. It tried that with Heavenly Sword and -- well -- that turned out okay -- but just okay, at best. And given Sony's pockets are hurting, it's likely the co. would rather throw R&D to its first-party makers. And furthermore, outside of Japanese publishers and a few outliers, who else is really going to give exclusivity anyways without big paychecks? Answer, probably no one. Even Capcom, Konami, and Namco-Bandai are pretty much done with console exclusivity. Had the PS3 gotten things right, I doubt we would have seen DMC or Tekken on 360. In the current state, the vast majority of publishers would be losing out on too much to keep games exclusive.
And say what you want, but I am a firm believer that the blu-ray choice by Sony pretty much is what killed it out of the gate. And while it's playing to be an advantage for disc space, techies know the 1x speed of the PS3 really pokes some major holes into the advantage. While 360 runs off old-tech DVD, the much faster read-speeds make a difference. It's also helping MS cut costs and make profits, not to mention helping publishers make more money. There's a reason why 360 games generally drop in prices faster; some of that is because they're on DVDs, which are frankly pennies to reproduce compared to the costs tied to the still-growing blu-ray format.
Sure, Sony announced it will be "profiting" soon, but they're so far in the red, it'll take a lot of green before they pull themselves out. Of course, the same can be said for MS due to its flagrant idiocy in designing the first chipset, which has cost it billions in warranty repairs.
All in all, what I'm saying is people who think PS3 is somehow back from the dead need to think again. Yes, it's doing better, but there's still nothing on the PS3 that's going to justify it as THE definitive console of choice vs. the 360. And looking ahead, Sony doesn't have any particularly major killer-app that's going to change people's minds.
As I've often said, had MS not blown it with the RROD (a problem that appears to be mostly resolved by the Jasper units), it probably would have walked away this generation (I of course say that in the context of PS3 and 360, we all know the Wii has walked away with most everything this go-around). Even if the problem is mostly resolved, people's conversations of the 360 don't go too long without at least one casual mentioning of it.
I'm sure PS3 numbers will edge up over the next year, but games like FF13 and any other major title from a large publishers are going multi-platform.
It's nothing to cry about. It's all good for the gamer. Sure, there will be exclusives, and you can debate which system has better ones. The point is that the PS3 probably doesn't have anything (yes, even counting GOW3), that'll help it overtake the 360 any time soon.
Again, this isn't meant to bash the PS3. I just wanted to rant a little to say Sony is far from being in the clear. In the end, Sony's mistakes are a blessing for gamers -- who would have thought we'd see the likes of DMC, Tekken, Soul Calibur, Resident Evil, the next Metal Gear, and soon, Final Fantasy on an XBOX console? And who would have thought MS would be able to get many of those without paying?