I'm thinking the first games will be:
Mario 64x4
Warioware DS
Metroid Hunters
The chat thingy
and maybe 2 others
They seemed pretty much the furthest along. Also a mario game at launch would garuntee nothing, yeah it's nice to see the little italian stereotype but his existance isnt going to make them a gajillion bucks, the games have to be good ingeneral they cant keep relying on a single name forever....(not even miyamoto's!)
Also: I hope you guys arent taking EB's word for anything that hasnt been released yet, that'd be the most hilarious thing I ever saw a person do if you did, especially with their reputation for tossing up imaginary dates just to justify the preorder system.