How can you tell if a game is going to beccome sought after?

doctordoom1974

doctordoom1974

CAGiversary!
I am writing this topic after being inspired by a previous topic on games that become rare soon after release. So now I ask if anyone knows if certain games will become expensive and sought after over the years. How do people know what game will become the next Suikoden II?

Please list your thoughts and ideas.
 
you have to know if there are going to only be a small amount of copies made of the game...and the other thing you have to consider (most importantly) is if anyone will want the game at all (a game can be rare, but not sought after if the game sucks)
 
Manufacturing numbers... Okay, how can you keep up with those? Do you have to send an e-mail to the publisher asking how many copies were made or what?
 
Lol, is this thread for real? Come on, you cant predict that at all. Anyone who played rhapsody 5 years ago (it was not a very popular game, its mediocre at best, very short and somewhat annoying) would not be able to tell you it would reach over $100 and end up getting reprinted. Same goes for suikoden 2, valkyrie profile etc. DDR disney was always expensive, but thats because as soon as it came out, it had an immediate fanbase (DDR was getting really hot at the time) and it was a low print run title that could not be found anywhere.

If you are going to try to set aside games as an investment, do it the right way. Do not even try to bother with current gen games, go after the games that you know will retail their values well. Go after games that are good, classic games. Go after games that are the first in a series, or what will be a series. Go after original releases of games that will be popular some day (for example, factory sealed original release copies of God of war, resident evil 4 for the cube, paper mario for the cube, castlevania dawn of sorrow, perhaps mario power tennis for the cube, dragon quest 8 etc).

The games that will maintain their values the best, or increase in value, are the older gen stuff. Right now is the time to buy sealed N64 and PS1 games or mint condition N64 and PS1 stuff. Dreamcast stuff is somewhat in there, but the premium games are already pricey and probably will not increase much in value. The older it is and the better the condition, the more likely it is to retain, or gain value.
 
even atlus games aren't a sure bet any more. they reprint them when the demand is high enough.

even games with low print runs aren't a sure bet. from what I understand, Suikoden 2 got popular a while after it released. Rez, Gitaroo man and MvC2 were all $5 games at CC at one point as well. I don't think anyone saw FFVII becoming so valuable after the movie released.

basically, you can't know.
 
[quote name='raregamergirl']

If you are going to try to set aside games as an investment, do it the right way. Do not even try to bother with current gen games, go after the games that you know will retail their values well. Go after games that are good, classic games. Go after games that are the first in a series, or what will be a series. Go after original releases of games that will be popular some day (for example, factory sealed original release copies of God of war, resident evil 4 for the cube, paper mario for the cube, castlevania dawn of sorrow, perhaps mario power tennis for the cube, dragon quest 8 etc).
[/quote]

Hmm... I have copies of Paper Mario and Dawn of Sorrow that I haven't opened yet; are you suggesting that I keep them that way?
 
Paper mario will only be valuable as one of two releases. The most valuable version will be the very first release with no best seller star on it and obviously not a player's choice. The second version that will not be worth quite as much is the non player's choice version that has the best seller star on it. the player's choice version will be worth little. Dawn of sorrow will go up. Konami usually does not reprint their titles (they did a compilation for HoD and AoS, but that does not really count) so dawn of sorrow will be worth something. Keep it sealed. If you hear any sort of rumor of a reprint, dump it.
 
[quote name='doctordoom1974']Hmm... I have copies of Paper Mario and Dawn of Sorrow that I haven't opened yet; are you suggesting that I keep them that way?[/quote]

no, i suggest you trade them to me
 
Investing in video games is kinda silly...get an IRA or 401K to start out with if you want to start saving for the future. You can have this money taken out of your paychecks BEFORE taxes so you'll be paying less tax every year and drawing interest...the sooner you start saving for retirement, the sooner you can retire.

That said, I do make a few bucks on video games occasionally...but I put that money back into my hobby, using it to buy other games I want. On a good Saturday, I'll usually find $100-200 worth of video game stuff at garage sales for maybe $30-40 cash. This is a lot easier and more profitable than buying a game new/sealed and holding onto it for several years in the hopes of makine $20 profit off of it.
 
[quote name='doctordoom1974']Manufacturing numbers... Okay, how can you keep up with those? Do you have to send an e-mail to the publisher asking how many copies were made or what?[/quote]

Most businesses will consider this proprietary information and not provide it. I can't imagine any publisher providing this kind of information.

Now, I bought a copy of Phoenix Wright on the day it came out...along with the Castlevania DS. Why? Because something told me that these would be hard to find. I was right. How did I get lucky, who knows? There's no system for this, just luck of the draw.

TBW
 
Only games that really seem to go up in value are mostly RPGs. Even ones that were in abundance, like FF7 and many other square games.
 
When Panzer Dragoon Saga came out I knew it was gonna be worth something in the future for the obvious reasons but that was the only game from the 32-bit era or before that I ever considered would be worth alot of money years later in any form (as in this case eBay since it's really hard to see old games being worth much if your options for getting rid of old games was as limited today as it would have been back in say 1990). I never would have guessed that other games like Suikoden II or Valkyrie Profile would be worth more then they retailed for on eBay years later hence why people always say you don't know what game will be the next Suikoden II or Valkyrie Profile from the current games out.
 
There's no real way to tell if a game's going to be valuable... more importantly, most game will, eventually, drop to worthless somedya when the systems they run on quit working. Just trust your gut and buy game you want.

(I do remember my boyfriend showing me Disagea shortly after release, and me telling him to buy it, becuase I really felt like it was gonna become rare. :D )
 
The number one reason why a game becomes sought after is a low print run. Did you ever read a review for a game, and knew it was out, but you just never saw it new in a store? Im still looking for the new Outrun for Xbox.

Other reasons a game can become sought after is having some sort of limited edition box, or some preorder bonus promo item.

Is the game made/put out by a respected developer/publisher? Treasure, Atlus, & Working Designs (rip) are all good bets. Capcom & Konami to a lesser extent.

Is the game in one of the collectible genres? These would be RPG, SRPG, & Fighting for the most part.

Did the game come out very late in the consoles life? Like maybe after a newer version of the console was out and no one cared about the older games for the older system anymore? I think the most sought after PS2 games havent come out yet. Theyre gonna be the games that come out next year, after the PS3 is out.
 
I didn't realize Dawn of Sorrow was rare...I opened it up as it was the only game I picked up with my DS Lite...D'oh!!!!!

...leaves CAG to go open sealed Valkyrie Profile...
 
[quote name='King_Sprout']Why is it that original copies of games are wrth so much more than Greatest Hits/Player's Choice/etc. ?[/quote]

Because the only people that will pay a premium for games will want the first printing. It's something that has carried over from every other collectible market. Find a first printing of an older classic book and you might make a nice chunk of change. Find the fourth printing and you probably won't even make your money back. Unfortunately, game publishers haven't figured out to put the pressing date somewhere on the disc so the only thing we have to go by is the lack of a greatest hits stripe on the disc.

I think the best thing to measure a game's value is to check the boards on here. If there's a couple threads that have been going on and people are searching for a game, I'd snatch it up. At the very least, you'll make your money back.

If you really want rare games, buy every new release that comes out exclusively for the Xbox. I wouldn't hold onto them for more than a few years though because it's doubtful they'll all get onto the BC list. I would also pick up every RPG that comes out for the PS2 this year. Not only should they all be top quality but they'll likely be printed in low numbers. FFXII will be the exception but people might look it over since XIII and versus will be coming out next year.
 
[quote name='depascal22']Because the only people that will pay a premium for games will want the first printing. It's something that has carried over from every other collectible market. Find a first printing of an older classic book and you might make a nice chunk of change. Find the fourth printing and you probably won't even make your money back. Unfortunately, game publishers haven't figured out to put the pressing date somewhere on the disc so the only thing we have to go by is the lack of a greatest hits stripe on the disc.

I think the best thing to measure a game's value is to check the boards on here. If there's a couple threads that have been going on and people are searching for a game, I'd snatch it up. At the very least, you'll make your money back.

If you really want rare games, buy every new release that comes out exclusively for the Xbox. I wouldn't hold onto them for more than a few years though because it's doubtful they'll all get onto the BC list. I would also pick up every RPG that comes out for the PS2 this year. Not only should they all be top quality but they'll likely be printed in low numbers. FFXII will be the exception but people might look it over since XIII and versus will be coming out next year.[/quote]

Yes, but why is the first print so special? It's still the same game.
 
[quote name='King_Sprout']Yes, but why is the first print so special? It's still the same game.[/quote]

You're not understanding the collector's psyche. Collectors pay top dollar for the first pressing because that's what they want to pay top dollar for. If you're paying 100 bucks for FFVII, you don't want that ugly stripe on the cover. I guess they think that people will think that they've had it since release and that makes them more of a gamer. I don't know what it is. I also don't prefer greatest hits but I don't go crazy if I can't find a copy of a game without it. You're trying to rationalize a very irrational thing. FFVII was printed in the millions but people were paying 60 bucks for a sealed greatest hits and over a hundred bucks for a black label. The 360 was going for double the MSRP on Ebay and craigslist but now it's as common as water. It's not the hardcore gamers here that drive up the prices but the parents who don't say no to their kids and casual gamers that like to look cool when they throw parties.
 
[quote name='depascal22']You're not understand the collector's psyche. Collectors pay top dollar for the first pressing because that's what they want to pay top dollar for. If you're paying 100 bucks for FFVII, you don't want that ugly stripe on the cover. I guess they think that people will think that they've had it since release and that makes them more of a gamer. I don't know what it is. I also don't prefer greatest hits but I don't go crazy if I can't find a copy of a game without it. You're trying to rationalize a very irrational thing. FFVII was printed in the millions but people were paying 60 bucks for a sealed greatest hits and over a hundred bucks for a black label. The 360 was going for double the MSRP on Ebay and craigslist but now it's as common as water. It's not the hardcore gamers here that drive up the prices but the parents who don't say no to their kids and casual gamers that like to look cool when they throw parties.[/quote]

I understand it, but find it slightly stupid. Meh.
 
[quote name='King_Sprout']I understand it, but find it slightly stupid. Meh.[/quote]

I agree with you but the only thing to do is to profit off of it.
 
[quote name='King_Sprout']Yes, but why is the first print so special? It's still the same game.[/quote]

College professors sink their life savings into first editions of classic books, but the words are the same as the $5 paperback. If you understand and appreciate the difference your a collector, if you dont then your not. Either way you get to enjoy the book.
 
IMO, video games are probably one of the slowest investments I've ever seen in terms of increasing in value. If at all. It took 10 years for Final Fantasy VII to increase 100% of it's original 50 dollar value and that is sealed. Only few games ever reach epic proportions in terms of returns.

Such as Chrono trigger or a sealed FFII or FFIII for SNES. Sealed SNES games are really the only system in which sealed collecting has really taken off. Likely due to the fact that the SNES had some of the most epic sidescrolling platformers and RPG's, plus it is my all time favorite system as many other peoples. Even an open complete chrono trigger is only netting a 30% return, cuz if anyone remembers, Chrono trigger was originally 70 dollars for the SNES which is why I never bought it. Now complete on Ebay it hits around 100. If you ask me that's miserable for as long as it's been out.

If you want to make money, the stock market or toys is a much better way. I can turn 300-400% profit on toys in just a year turnaround time, and much bigger in the 2-3 year area. The stock market is hit or miss, but I've doubled my money it just days, although you're much more likely to lose big too.

If you look into toys. DO NOT BUY WHAT IS HOT at the time. Like buying yu-gi-oh, beanie babies when they were hot or star wars right now would be death for your collection. You have to buy what no one is paying attention too, and buy something that is DISPLAYABLE. Like a ship or a plane, or a really nice figure. These items are guaranteed minumum of 100% return normally in just 1-2 years after they run out. I've been in the business of collectibles for around 20 years now, and it took about 10 years for me to finally get it right to where I was earning quite a bit w/ very little loss or items that I sell back at cost. But I must say now, I'm right nearly 95-99% of the time, and for the last 2 years have been 100% in all toy investments in terms of shooting prices.

My advice is not to invest in sealed video games. It takes just too long for a profit, but to each his own. Either way, never buy the hot item of the day, search out the rare gems. Shadows of the colossus once the price drops, would be a good investment I think. It's a great game, that someday some people might take interest in it. A first run FFX sealed in 10 years could double possibly. Video games are really tough, it's a lot harder I've found to find something profitable unlike many other areas.

Good luck in collecting! If anyone's interested in some good investments(not VG related), feel free to PM.
 
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