Humans gone in 30 years? the beginning of mass extinction

Hey Billyrox, instead of posting articles that don't mean shit, how about you explain how the content they're relating is going to lead to your stupid mass extinction?
 
[quote name='Liquid 2']Hey Billyrox, instead of posting articles that don't mean shit, how about you explain how the content they're relating is going to lead to your stupid mass extinction?[/QUOTE]

Envirotards can't use logic in arguments. Haven't you evolved to learn that yet?
 
The civilizations that have collapsed, both past and present, do so for largely one reason: They dont have a strong central government that can enforce sustainable, long term environmental policies. They either have no significant central government, or they have one that is not staunchly pro-environment.

The collapse of the Anasazi in the American Southwest, the peoples of Easter Island, the Maya in the Yucatan, the Norse in Greenland, modern day Rwanda and Haiti - all are strongly connected first and foremost to deforestation. Other anthropogenic factors include soil erosion, reduction in soil quality, poor water management, introduction of foreign flora/fauna and extinction of native species - all exacerbated by human overpopulation.

Forested area has now stabilized in most of the world, including the US, Japan, and western Europe. As long as the other countries dont drag the world into a Malthusian crisis, humans as a whole should be fine for now.

Mass extinctions happen. Just because we're causing this one doesnt mean we're necessarily going to be a victim of it ourselves.
 
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[quote name='Dr Mario Kart']The civilizations that have collapsed, both past and present, do so for largely one reason: They dont have a strong central government that can enforce sustainable, long term environmental policies. They either have no significant central government, or they have one that is not staunchly pro-environment.

The collapse of the Anasazi in the American Southwest, the peoples of Easter Island, the Maya in the Yucatan, the Norse in Greenland, modern day Rwanda and Haiti - all are strongly connected first and foremost to deforestation. Other anthropogenic factors include soil erosion, reduction in soil quality, poor water management, introduction of foreign flora/fauna and extinction of native species - all exacerbated by human overpopulation.

Forested area has now stabilized in most of the world, including the US, Japan, and western Europe. As long as the other countries dont drag the world into a Malthusian crisis, humans as a whole should be fine for now.

Mass extinctions happen. Just because we're causing this one doesnt mean we're necessarily going to be a victim of it ourselves.[/QUOTE]


maybe not, we'll see. we definately wont have the same quality of life without animals such as bees to pollinate our food, fish to eat, etc.
 
I say we start planning and prioritizing the cannibalism now.
Everyone should agree that we eat the vegetarians first, because they shouldn't want to eat any of the omnivorous people. The decision makes it self really.
 
[quote name='billyrox']http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091014/ts_afp/britaincanadaarcticclimateenvironmentscience


most of us will be old men/ women by then...but we really fucked up the world for our kids[/QUOTE]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

When something like Toba happens again, I'll get worried.

When Toba happened, humans were illiterate nomads knowing only how to throw a spear at a nearby animal and sometimes not killing themselves with nuts and berries.

...

Losing thousands of miles to the seas? That happened at the end of the last Ice Age. It didn't really slow us down as a species.
 
[quote name='billyrox']http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7936137.stm[/QUOTE]
That is concerning. If the food supply from the sea dies off we will all be facing a tragic future. How many people in the world depend on the sea for their sustenance... they will have to migrate to other territories looking for food that is produced via the land and will fight with those who already live there. We won't have enough food to support them and conflict will result, potentially war.

Another thing is what about when all the ice melts in the artic/antartic and the viruses, parasites, etc that have been frozen for longer than the human species has been around are introduced to us... we won't have any immunity... mass extinction.
 
Everyone must face the apocalypse at one point. But the thing is it does not happen at the same time for each person, they must face it alone. Or sometimes in a plane screaming with a bunch of others. I doubt we will see anything like mass extinction barring any global nuclear war, but that's just a wild guess.
smile
 
[quote name='J7.']Another thing is what about when all the ice melts in the artic/antartic and the viruses, parasites, etc that have been frozen for longer than the human species has been around are introduced to us... we won't have any immunity... mass extinction.[/QUOTE]

Wait for it. Wait for it. Ready? :roll:

If a virus or parasite has been locked away for a few hundred thousand years, its preferred host would have died off.

That virus or parasite has a greater chance of not finding a suitable host and dying off.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']Wait for it. Wait for it. Ready? :roll:

If a virus or parasite has been locked away for a few hundred thousand years, its preferred host would have died off.

That virus or parasite has a greater chance of not finding a suitable host and dying off.[/QUOTE]
Edit: Here is an article that describes exactly what I was saying...
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/05/iceplague/

The next flu pandemic may be hibernating in an Arctic glacier or frozen Siberian lake, waiting for rising temperatures to set it free. Then birds can deliver it back to civilization.

New research suggests an influenza virus could go into hiding in the ice when earlier generations of humans, birds or other hosts developed immunity strong enough to drive the virus to extinction. It’s a sort of evolutionary loophole.

“It can bring a set of viral genes back to life that have been frozen for centuries or thousands of years,” said environmental biologist Scott Rogers of Bowling Green State University in Ohio. “If hosts haven’t seen the virus in a while, then there may be no active immunity.”

Rogers and Zeynep Koçer, of Bowling Green State University in Ohio, found that influenza viruses can easily survive freezing in pond water, and emerge from the melting ice strong enough to infect bird eggs. They presented their latest evidence today at the American Society for Microbiology meeting in Philadelphia.

Continued:
Rogers calls this evolutionary strategy “genome recycling.” He thinks migrating waterfowl regularly deliver influenza viruses to Arctic glaciers and lakes, where it becomes frozen in ice. When the ice melts, birds pick the virus up and transport it back south where it can infect humans.

The research comes amid a global alert over a new swine flu strain, H1N1, that has so far killed at least 80 people and could be headed toward full-blown pandemic. Influenza pandemics have struck periodically in historic times. The worst in recent memory were the Spanish flu in 1918, the Asian flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968.

These pandemics are hard to predict or trace back to their origins. Some researchers have proposed Siberia as a hub for the evolution of flu pandemics that eventually emerge in other locations — carried there by birds.

Scientists have in fact detected influenza viruses frozen in the ice and mud of lakes in Alaska, Siberia and elsewhere. These Arctic lakes are the summer grounds for ducks that migrate to China, Southern Asia, Europe and North America.

Dany Shoham, who studies biological warfare at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Bar-Ilan University in Israel, first sidled up to the idea that influenza viruses may hide in ice during the 1990s. As influenza viruses pass from one person, or bird, to another, they normally pick up random changes in their genes because of errors in viral replication. This “genetic drift” happens at a constant rate.

But Shoham noticed something strange: Influenza viruses isolated decades apart sometimes showed little sign of genetic drift. One strain that came from Russia in 1977, was nearly identical to a strain of the virus last seen in 1950.

“In some cases,” he said, “they are absolutely identical.”
To Shoham, it seemed as though these viruses spent the intervening decades not infecting birds or people, but rather frozen in suspended animation — something like Buck Rogers spending 500 years drifting in space.

Shoham and Rogers believe that ice provides a perfect explanation. When they tested their theory with Siberian lake ice in 2006, they found an influenza virus almost identical to one that had infected people in the 1930s, and again in the 1960s.

“This phenomenon may take place regularly,” Shoham said, “far beyond what we witness.”

They are now trying to prove the viruses found in lake ice can actually survive well enough to re-infect birds when the ice melts. So far it has been shown only in lab experiments, but there’s already some indication that influenza has evolved a special capacity for surviving cold.
When cells and viruses are cooled, their membranes often change suddenly — similar to the way water molecules reorganize during freezing — and this can rupture the membrane and kill the cell. So, biophysicist Joshua Zimmerberg of the National Institutes of Health cooled an influenza virus below freezing while monitoring the properties of its membrane coating using a new technique called “magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance.”

But the membrane coating of influenza was “like none we had ever looked at before,” said Zimmerberg, who published his results last year in Nature Chemical Biology. Influenza’s membrane capsule gradually hardened from an oily fluid into a hardened gel, without sudden changes. “It’s remarkably stable with freezing and thawing,” he said. “That’s the unique thing about influenza.”

The idea that influenza may hide out in ice has struck a chord among some experts. “One of the challenges is where does this virus persist between pandemics?” said virologist Richard Slemons of Ohio State University, who has studied bird flu for 35 years. “The idea needs to be considered and explored.”

Rogers believes global surveillance for influenza outbreaks should keep an eye on Arctic ice. Many other viruses may have evolved to lay dormant in ice when their host populations develop resistance, says Shoham. He suspects waterborne viruses such as polio, hepatitis A, and rotavirus (which causes diarrhea) could all potentially survive in ice. Even smallpox — a virus against which Americans are no longer routinely vaccinated — might survive in the bodies of victims buried in Arctic permafrost.
Meanwhile, Rogers and John Castello of State University of New York in Syracuse have isolated a plant virus called tomato mosaic virus from Greenland glacial ice up to 140,000 years old. “It’s our opinion that they are probably still viable,” says Rogers, “but we weren’t able to show that.”

And Koçer is screening ice from Antarctic lakes that have remained frozen for at least hundreds of years, using a technique which can detect any type of virus — whether they infect, plants, animals, or bacteria.
“I want to see everything,” she says. One preliminary run turned up genetic sequences for what could be over 100 viruses.

Just because it losts its preferred host doesn't mean the virus/parasite couldn't find a host that it could live off of. Besides there are numerous hosts that have been around as long as whatever could've become frozen that haven't had contact and immunity. The virus could move from one host to the next until it affects our livestock or ourselves from contact with another creature. Viruses/parasites don't survive merely through preferred hosts, they need to adapt and move from host to host. Also climate change itself can lead to increased virus replication.


And then there is also stuff like this that can happen http://arcticfocus.com/2009/06/22/seal-virus-spreads-to-arctic-otters/
 
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It's not fiction. Did you read the fucking article, obviously not. I present factual fucking evidence, research by scientists and somehow they are wrong and you know more. They've proved it in the lab and in lakes and all signs are pointing to them being correct. It has never been proven that they are incorrect.

RE climate change not leading to increased virus replication, I said climate change itself meaning viruses already among living beings. As in climate change alone is bad for us because it leads to virus replication. Do a google search... http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=climate+change+virus+replication&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

Here's one article: "Warmer weather increases the rate of infection and virus replication in the midge itself, and increases their activity in more northern areas."
http://www.physorg.com/news157733711.html

Thanks for that article, it shows that viruses do jump species, it's just not very common for all viruses and it can take time to happen. From your article:

"And while usually limited, it isn't always the case."

"We know that every once in awhile, viruses do jump to a new species."

"So what was once purely an avian virus has now expanded its host range to include a variety of mammals, some of which appear to be able to carry the virus asymptomatically - while others manifest serious, often fatal symptoms."

"If the H5N1 virus had not shown the ability to jump species, we would probably just consider it another fowl plague. A costly nuisance for the poultry industry, but not a danger to humanity."

"Of course, the concern is that viruses have a nasty habit of mutating. What was true yesterday may not be true tomorrow. "

"Since pigs and humans share many commonalities in their physiology (if that induces discomfiture in you, think how the pig feels) any disease that jumps to swine is of immediate concern to scientists."

It doesn't matter if the virus originated among humans or another species, if it can be carried by humans and it causes widespread death we can see mass extinction, it's happened to other species. What may also happen is that humans would survive, but very very few.
 
[quote name='J7.']It's not fiction. Did you read the fucking article, obviously not. [/QUOTE]

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/05/iceplague/

This article, right?

"Flu Pandemics May Lurk in Frozen Lakes"

Notice the word MAY in the title?

"They are now trying to prove the viruses found in lake ice can actually survive well enough to re-infect birds when the ice melts. So far it has been shown only in lab experiments, but there’s already some indication that influenza has evolved a special capacity for surviving cold."

Translation: They detected trace amounts of the virus, but don't know if it is infectious in the wild.

"The idea that influenza may hide out in ice has struck a chord among some experts. “One of the challenges is where does this virus persist between pandemics?” said virologist Richard Slemons of Ohio State University, who has studied bird flu for 35 years. “The idea needs to be considered and explored.”"

Translation: It sounds cool, but it isn't proven ... yet.

"Meanwhile, Rogers and John Castello of State University of New York in Syracuse have isolated a plant virus called tomato mosaic virus from Greenland glacial ice up to 140,000 years old. “It’s our opinion that they are probably still viable,” says Rogers, “but we weren’t able to show that.”"

Translation: We have failed so far to infect something with an old virus.

Now, I've only analyzed 30% of the article in this post. Does the other 70% contradict this 30%?

Five to ten years from now, we might be shaking in our collective boots over this. Right now, it's science fiction.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/05/iceplague/

This article, right?

"Flu Pandemics May Lurk in Frozen Lakes"

Notice the word MAY in the title?

"They are now trying to prove the viruses found in lake ice can actually survive well enough to re-infect birds when the ice melts. So far it has been shown only in lab experiments, but there’s already some indication that influenza has evolved a special capacity for surviving cold."

Translation: They detected trace amounts of the virus, but don't know if it is infectious in the wild.

"The idea that influenza may hide out in ice has struck a chord among some experts. “One of the challenges is where does this virus persist between pandemics?” said virologist Richard Slemons of Ohio State University, who has studied bird flu for 35 years. “The idea needs to be considered and explored.”"

Translation: It sounds cool, but it isn't proven ... yet.

"Meanwhile, Rogers and John Castello of State University of New York in Syracuse have isolated a plant virus called tomato mosaic virus from Greenland glacial ice up to 140,000 years old. “It’s our opinion that they are probably still viable,” says Rogers, “but we weren’t able to show that.”"

Translation: We have failed so far to infect something with an old virus.

Now, I've only analyzed 30% of the article in this post. Does the other 70% contradict this 30%?

Five to ten years from now, we might be shaking in our collective boots over this. Right now, it's science fiction.[/QUOTE]
Yes, may. All their scientific research so far supports their claims. Their theories are being proven correct. There has not been research that has shown they're wrong or their theories are wrong. I like how your translations are not literal but are you making up shit based on what you personally believe. Even if it's unproven yet, again everything so far points to them being correct, which supports my original argument not yours.

Even if you personally think its science fiction, time and time again things that we thought were just science fiction have come to fruition. It's better to prepare for the worst than to be nonchalant and say haha that'll never happen, oops we didn't prepare, it's too late, we're fucked.

As far as stuff that contradicts what you posted:

"Rogers and Zeynep Koçer, of Bowling Green State University in Ohio, found that influenza viruses can easily survive freezing in pond water, and emerge from the melting ice strong enough to infect bird eggs."

"He thinks migrating waterfowl regularly deliver influenza viruses to Arctic glaciers and lakes, where it becomes frozen in ice. When the ice melts, birds pick the virus up and transport it back south where it can infect humans."

"Some researchers have proposed Siberia as a hub for the evolution of flu pandemics that eventually emerge in other locations — carried there by birds."

They believe that the flu pandemics that emerge periodically throughout history may be occuring as a result of the flu's becoming frozen and later being reemerge to society...

"Scientists have in fact detected influenza viruses frozen in the ice and mud of lakes in Alaska, Siberia and elsewhere. These Arctic lakes are the summer grounds for ducks that migrate to China, Southern Asia, Europe and North America."

"But Shoham noticed something strange: Influenza viruses isolated decades apart sometimes showed little sign of genetic drift. One strain that came from Russia in 1977, was nearly identical to a strain of the virus last seen in 1950." (this supports their theory)

“In some cases,” he said, “they are absolutely identical.” (the viruses can't be identical because as they say) "As influenza viruses pass from one person, or bird, to another, they normally pick up random changes in their genes because of errors in viral replication. This “genetic drift” happens at a constant rate."

Therefore, the viruses had to have not been passed on between the two times they emerged, how is this possible? If they were frozen between those two times, that explains it.

"To Shoham, it seemed as though these viruses spent the intervening decades not infecting birds or people, but rather frozen in suspended animation"

"Shoham and Rogers believe that ice provides a perfect explanation. When they tested their theory with Siberian lake ice in 2006, they found an influenza virus almost identical to one that had infected people in the 1930s, and again in the 1960s."

"The idea that influenza may hide out in ice has struck a chord among some experts."

"Many other viruses may have evolved to lay dormant in ice when their host populations develop resistance, says Shoham. He suspects waterborne viruses such as polio, hepatitis A, and rotavirus (which causes diarrhea) could all potentially survive in ice. Even smallpox — a virus against which Americans are no longer routinely vaccinated — might survive in the bodies of victims buried in Arctic permafrost."

"One preliminary run turned up genetic sequences for what could be over 100 viruses."
 
[quote name='J7.']"But Shoham noticed something strange: Influenza viruses isolated decades apart sometimes showed little sign of genetic drift. One strain that came from Russia in 1977, was nearly identical to a strain of the virus last seen in 1950." (this supports their theory)[/QUOTE]

Let's bring out the old debunkanator for this snippet.

Exactly how did they preserve a virus from 1950 found in a third world country like Mother Russia?

For the 1950 virus, you would have to preserve a virus sample with the tech available in Russia right after World War II before there was an accepted model of DNA and keep it free from contamination for at least 30 years before it could be sequenced.

I could see all of the necessary equipment available in 1977 for storage even though the sequencing equipment wouldn't have been available for at least three more years.

Here is something of interest from the comments section of the article.

"This article may be of interest to the people reading this article.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pubmed&pubmedid=18234791
The abstract reads:
Zhang et al. (G. Zhang, D. Shoham, D. Gilichinsky, S. Davydov, J. D. Castello, and S. O. Rogers, J. Virol. 80:12229-12235, 2006) have claimed to have recovered influenza A virus RNA from Siberian lake ice, postulating that ice might represent an important abiotic reservoir for the persistence and reemergence of this medically important pathogen. A rigorous phylogenetic analysis of these influenza A virus hemagglutinin gene sequences, however, indicates that they originated from a laboratory reference strain derived from the earliest human influenza A virus isolate, WS/33. Contrary to Zhang et al.’s assertions that the Siberian “ice viruses” are most closely related either to avian influenza virus or to human influenza virus strains from Asia from the 1960s (Zhang et al., J. Virol. 81:2538 [erratum], 2007), they are clearly contaminants from the WS/33 positive control used in their laboratory. There is thus no credible evidence that environmental ice acts as a biologically relevant reservoir for influenza viruses. Several additional cases with findings that seem at odds with the biology of influenza virus, including modern-looking avian influenza virus RNA sequences from an archival goose specimen collected in 1917 (T. G. Fanning, R. D. Slemons, A. H. Reid, T. A. Janczewski, J. Dean, and J. K. Taubenberger, J. Virol. 76:7860-7862, 2002), can also be explained by laboratory contamination or other experimental errors. Many putative examples of evolutionary stasis in influenza A virus appear to be due to laboratory artifacts."


[quote name='J7.']Yes, may. All their scientific research so far supports their claims. Their theories are being proven correct. There has not been research that has shown they're wrong or their theories are wrong. I like how your translations are not literal but are you making up shit based on what you personally believe. Even if it's unproven yet, again everything so far points to them being correct, which supports my original argument not yours.[/QUOTE]


I'll let you translate the above abstract.
 
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