I was talking to my oldest son about gaming last night. He mentioned Gamepass possibly going to other platforms as a condition for the next Elder Scrolls game. We talked in detail about how that would even work. Would it just be a gamepass with native compiled games for each platform... or would they throw xbox exclusives on there and require them be played through the cloud? Whatever the case, I'm not down with either one. I will not pay a monthly fee for videogames (which sounds like what might happen with the next elder scrolls). I also will not buy a current console that has no option for physical release games. I couldn't cloud game even if I wanted to. Thankfully with a competitive market, it's unlikely anyone of the big 3 will burn out a large portion of their base by going digital only on console game releases.
Even the streaming video companies put a lot of their shows out on DVD (and some on BR) because they are still very common to find in homes and they know there's a market for physical media (for both the fans and those who can't or won't stream video). It's not like PC's where there's no universal cheap storage option to sell games on that the majority of PC's can use. Most PC's with disc drives only have DVD drives... and games have gotten too big for that. Heck they are often too big to make even jumpdrives a cost effective option. Then there's DVD drives even disappearing from new pc's...so the market to release games too has shrank which is why only a few games make that leap to physical and for many of them it's hidden objects and other casual games.
So... I think we are safe for a while. It'll take all three companies deciding to go digital only for it to even have a chance. If just one of them does it, a large portion of their base will revolt and go to the competition. I could only imagine that happening if the market shrinks so much that they know they wouldn't be able to get enough retail space. But at that point, going all digital would probably kill their business.
I agree with you that we're safe for at least the next few years. Sales of physical media are, as expected, declining at a significant pace year-to-year. While not a perfect analog, you may want to check out theDigitalBits.com; it's a blog run by Bill Hunt, a movie industry vet. He periodically writes about the state of physical media and shares sales numbers and perspectives from across the various media outlets. Most of us knew the tides towards streaming were building, but it seems evident now that Covid-19 hastened the pace, and with the big media companies going all-in on streaming, it's certain physical media is going to become even more niche, and may be faster than some might think.
One thing to keep an eye on is the number of disc manufacturers out there. Most people aren't aware that pretty much all of them have gone bankrupt or have closed down, save for I think ~3-4 manufacturers. It's why you're seeing difficulties and delays in restocking films and games once stores sell out. It's also a driving force in why publishers - movies or games - are not reprinting because marginal costs for production are rising.
I don't know what the premium ceiling is for physical media, but we'll find out as prices will surely rise when more and more publishers decide that the market isn't worth the time or trouble, and volume production continues its decline.
The effects will come slowly, as they always do, but I won't be surprised when the earlier rumors that Disney will stop publishing discs (which the company denied last year) turn out to actually happen for real in a year or two. It already looks like Disney is quietly stopping most reprints of their newly acquired Fox catalog.
Physical media isn't going away, but it's clear the big retailers have already seen the writing on the wall. Best Buy's recent decision last year to send most of all of its movies into the warehouse and remove/slim down their media aisles was a long time coming. I suspect Walmart will do the same very soon.
Video game aisles have slimmed as well, and as console makers push for more and more digital sales (which apparently already are now over half of total sales), I don't see any reason why retailers won't reduce those areas down even further. I can't imagine retailers are terribly happy to see Sony and Microsoft selling their consoles through their own websites this generation.
Consumers have already indicated they're fine giving up "ownership rights" to buy digital games and stream games/movies online. Publishers, of course, want this because it maximizes revenue by cutting out retail costs and other middle-men while eliminating the consumers' ability to resell. In all, digital is better for the corporate bottom-line.
So the march towards a full digital marketplace (or as close to it as reasonably possible) will be inevitable. In the interim, I try to support full disc/cartridge game releases, and buy movies or games I'm interested in from those small-mid publishers who are willing to keep the fading industry alive.
I suppose one silver lining to all this is that to expand and go more digital means having the infrastructure to do it. It means media companies and broadband companies have a strong fiscal incentive to invest and improve the ailing systems across the U.S. and other parts of the world. In other words, you may finally see all that investment into the infrastructure that many have talked about slowing down the transition.
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