mykevermin
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[quote name='pittpizza']Mykevermin, you're not going to be able to convince me you know more about the judicial system than the US Supreme Court. Sorry, and no offense or anything, but your just not going to be able to do it because you dont.
And deterrence does work. We know this empircally because we see it everyday in civilized society. That criminal punishment has no deterrent effect is a fallacy and could only be beleived by someone who is blind, deaf, and dumb. There is all kinds of shit that I would LOVE to do but dont because, guess what, I dont want to go to jail/get a ticket/get sued or whatever![/QUOTE]
If deterrence was such a grand ideal, then, given the change in criminal justice policies over the past three decades (reduction/elimination of rehabilitation programs and the beginning of more punitive policies such as "three strikes" laws, mandatory minimums/"truth in advertising" laws, indeterminate sentencing, the reduced discretionary power and parole boars), we have seen (1) an immense increase in the currently serving prison population (from 700K to 2.1m+ in 30 years), (2) immense increases in the annual releases from state/federal prisons (over 600K this year, meaning that the number of annual prison releases is almost as large as the entire prison population in the mid-70's), and (3) immense increases in time served. So, considering and increase in both the certainty and severity of punishment (Beccaria's favorite notions), we would thus expect the deterrent effect to take hold in prisons, right?
Yet, while we have seen crime rates go down (beginning in the mid-1990's through today, about a 10% drop from the early 1990's peak - another interesting point, to see how crime rates soared during the time of heightened punishment!), we have seen sky-high recidivism rates. So, if we expect harsher punishments to deter criminals from returning to a life of crime, then we wouldn't have the recidivism rates that we do right now. Langan and Levin put together a report in 2002 showing recidivism patterns (recidivism, in this case, meaning rearrest) for prison releases in 1994 (at the time of the crime peak, and after all the punitive policies had been established for quite some time). They found that 67.5% of prison releases were rearrested within 3 years of release. That's 2 out of every 3 prison releases! And yet you're telling me that deterrence works?
Based on what data? Show me that deterrence works. Give me some statistics, so reports - because I see nothing to show that deterrence works on criminals. Does the threat of jail time, a suspended sentence, fines, or incidental manslaughter reduce the number of drunk drivers on the road?
I did not say I know more than the justice system - the only thing I'll say about policies is that politicians, if they want to commit political suicide, call for leniency towards criminals in their campaigns. Treatment of criminals in political campaigns resembles the scene in Pee-Wee's Big Adventure when the bikers are arguing over what to do to Pee-Wee after he knocks over their bikes. Policy reflects what the public wants generally, which is punishment, punishment, punishment - and what the public thinks of patterns of crime is substantially incorrect and misinformed.
Moreover, to speak of fallacies is to speak of substituting anecdotal evidence for data. That most of society is law-abiding is no evidence whatsoever for deterrence. A society with behavioral patterns such as ours could just as easily be the result of overall people's desire to behave *prosocially*, rather than a successful policy of scaring the shit out of people into not committing crimes. Your attempt to label my argument as fallacy is laughable in face of your post-hoc theoretical wanking. Step out of law school for a minute and show me a causal model.
And deterrence does work. We know this empircally because we see it everyday in civilized society. That criminal punishment has no deterrent effect is a fallacy and could only be beleived by someone who is blind, deaf, and dumb. There is all kinds of shit that I would LOVE to do but dont because, guess what, I dont want to go to jail/get a ticket/get sued or whatever![/QUOTE]
If deterrence was such a grand ideal, then, given the change in criminal justice policies over the past three decades (reduction/elimination of rehabilitation programs and the beginning of more punitive policies such as "three strikes" laws, mandatory minimums/"truth in advertising" laws, indeterminate sentencing, the reduced discretionary power and parole boars), we have seen (1) an immense increase in the currently serving prison population (from 700K to 2.1m+ in 30 years), (2) immense increases in the annual releases from state/federal prisons (over 600K this year, meaning that the number of annual prison releases is almost as large as the entire prison population in the mid-70's), and (3) immense increases in time served. So, considering and increase in both the certainty and severity of punishment (Beccaria's favorite notions), we would thus expect the deterrent effect to take hold in prisons, right?
Yet, while we have seen crime rates go down (beginning in the mid-1990's through today, about a 10% drop from the early 1990's peak - another interesting point, to see how crime rates soared during the time of heightened punishment!), we have seen sky-high recidivism rates. So, if we expect harsher punishments to deter criminals from returning to a life of crime, then we wouldn't have the recidivism rates that we do right now. Langan and Levin put together a report in 2002 showing recidivism patterns (recidivism, in this case, meaning rearrest) for prison releases in 1994 (at the time of the crime peak, and after all the punitive policies had been established for quite some time). They found that 67.5% of prison releases were rearrested within 3 years of release. That's 2 out of every 3 prison releases! And yet you're telling me that deterrence works?
Based on what data? Show me that deterrence works. Give me some statistics, so reports - because I see nothing to show that deterrence works on criminals. Does the threat of jail time, a suspended sentence, fines, or incidental manslaughter reduce the number of drunk drivers on the road?
I did not say I know more than the justice system - the only thing I'll say about policies is that politicians, if they want to commit political suicide, call for leniency towards criminals in their campaigns. Treatment of criminals in political campaigns resembles the scene in Pee-Wee's Big Adventure when the bikers are arguing over what to do to Pee-Wee after he knocks over their bikes. Policy reflects what the public wants generally, which is punishment, punishment, punishment - and what the public thinks of patterns of crime is substantially incorrect and misinformed.
Moreover, to speak of fallacies is to speak of substituting anecdotal evidence for data. That most of society is law-abiding is no evidence whatsoever for deterrence. A society with behavioral patterns such as ours could just as easily be the result of overall people's desire to behave *prosocially*, rather than a successful policy of scaring the shit out of people into not committing crimes. Your attempt to label my argument as fallacy is laughable in face of your post-hoc theoretical wanking. Step out of law school for a minute and show me a causal model.