Obama Gaining in Battleground States (Poll Discussion thread)

[quote name='willardhaven']According to CNN the polls have a 4% margin of error.

So basically it's anyone's game.[/QUOTE]

Yep, but still good to see him trending upward. McCain had been trending up since the convention/tabbing Palin. So at least it's strongly reversing.

But no doubt it's going to be a close election. May not be 2000 or 2004 again, but it'll be a dog fight in these battle ground states. I think Obama gets the majority of them and wins by more than Bush did either time.
 
I don't really follow CNN for that stuff, www.realclearpolitics.com has a nice map and good tracking (though they are usually updated later), and also www.electoral-vote.com does a good job and www.fivethirtyeight.com is pretty good too.

Right now though he's doing awesome compared to a few weeks ago. The convention bump has faded and he has even gone up compared to right before the conventions. Obama is leading (though barely) in every single state that wasn't already solid Republican and also VA and NC (usually not much of a problem for Republicans).

If the election went by the current poll average Obama would win 353 - 185, which is almost at Clinton levels.

It's still not close enough to the election, and many of the leads are very small, but McCain has quite the uphill battle.

EDIT: Going by the same criteria I used in the other poll thread for each candidates "very best hopes" - giving the states each one is winning by less than 3% to the other candidate - McCain couldn't even win anymore.

McCain's best hope would be losing to Obama 296 - 242
If you gave him Florida, which RCP currently has at exactly 3%, his best hope would be the 269 - 269 tie.
Obama's best hope now has gone up to winning 375 - 163
 
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I know they aren't mentioned in the OP, but there's no way Obama will win Ohio. No fucking way. I would bet money on it. Lots of money. There are too many ignorant idiots and racist rednecks here. I don't think a lot of people realize how stupid most Ohioans are. Ohio is NOT a battleground state in this election.
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']I know they aren't mentioned in the OP, but there's no way Obama will win Ohio. No fucking way. I would bet money on it. Lots of money. There are too many ignorant idiots and racist rednecks here. I don't think a lot of people realize how stupid most Ohioans are. Ohio is NOT a battleground state in this election.[/quote]

If it comes down to racist rednecks I don't think he can win VA either, but the northern parts of VA and the younger people in VA don't seem as bad, so there seems to be a chance.
 
[quote name='SpazX']If it comes down to racist rednecks I don't think he can win VA either, but the northern parts of VA and the younger people in VA don't seem as bad, so there seems to be a chance.[/QUOTE]

The big cities in Ohio (Cincy, Cleveland, and Columbus) are not bad either, and there are lots of of the demographics that are sure to vote for Obama in all three. However, the rest of the state is nearly all redneck, and I am very worried about polling in the cities, especially in the poorer districts. I will also bet money that they will have troubles with voting in the three big Ohio cities, with not enough booths for the turnout. This is because there'll be 15 booths in a small district in redneck rural Ohio while they'll be 2 in a "poor" (ie black) Columbus district with lots of Obama voters. I'm not making this up either. Just wait.
 
Finally my vote will count. Just moved to N.C and now its tied!! Grew up in Mass, unless it was for governor its always going Blue.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']I've always said Obama will win. And I actually will not be surprised at a landslide.[/QUOTE]

The current numbers are extremely promising, and are getting my hopes up. However, the "hidden" yet rampant racism in this country makes me believe that 1. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama but won't because they're racist but just don't want anyone to know except for when they go to the polls and vote and 2. Racist people who wouldn't normally vote will come out in DROVES to keep a "******" out of the White House. I'm being quite cynical, but I don't think it's too far from the truth.

Edit: Also, I know I've come off as extremely pro-Obama in recent posts. It's not really that I'm pro-Obama, it's more like anti-McCain/Palin. I have such an utter hatred of these clowns that I'm pretty much ignoring all the stupid shit Obama and Biden have done in the past and present to make sure McCain/Palin don't get elected.
 
Although I feel like voting is useless and that the government is in bed with the corporate sphere, the naive part of me hopes Obama could do something.

That said I still don't know if I am going to vote for Obama or Nader. I mean, it could be a historic election day and image is everything right?
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']
Edit: Also, I know I've come off as extremely pro-Obama in recent posts. It's not really that I'm pro-Obama, it's more like anti-McCain/Palin. I have such an utter hatred of these clowns that I'm pretty much ignoring all the stupid shit Obama and Biden have done in the past and present to make sure McCain/Palin don't get elected.[/QUOTE]

Well that's pretty much how I feel about both candidates/parties right now. I find it impossible not to blame both of them for the direction this country has gone in not just the past 8, but the past 80 years.

So I see myself more as an outside observer to all this, for entertainment. Hoping some day a third party or independent candidate is viable.
 
[quote name='SpazX']If it comes down to racist rednecks I don't think he can win VA either, but the northern parts of VA and the younger people in VA don't seem as bad, so there seems to be a chance.[/quote]

We aren't so bad!

You wouldn't believe the growth in Nova right outside DC

And here in Nova we laugh at McCain/Palin.

Plus SE VA (Newport News etc) is a complicated beast - I wouldn't be surprised if the bad economy and stoploss policies are starting to take a toll on the most stalwart Republican navy families.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']
So I see myself more as an outside observer to all this, for entertainment. Hoping some day a third party or independent candidate is viable.[/quote]

I agree, but living in the U.S. kind of screws that thinking up for me.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']Well that's pretty much how I feel about both candidates/parties right now. I find it impossible not to blame both of them for the direction this country has gone in not just the past 8, but the past 80 years.

So I see myself more as an outside observer to all this, for entertainment. Hoping some day a third party or independent candidate is viable.[/QUOTE]

Well both parties are extremely fucked up, but I'm a liberal at heart, so I DO agree with some things Obama has on plate. I agree with pretty much nothing McCain has on plate. So it's an obvious choice for me. I think you tend to lean more towards the conservative or libertarian side (I'm just guessing from your posts, don't kill me if I'm wrong), so it's definitely tough for you to pick a choice at all.
 
[quote name='Ikohn4ever']the best part is the only person raising their hand for McCain is the reporter[/quote]

Also that guy in the back... before his wife hits him and pulls his hand down :lol:
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']I know they aren't mentioned in the OP, but there's no way Obama will win Ohio. No fucking way. I would bet money on it. Lots of money. There are too many ignorant idiots and racist rednecks here. I don't think a lot of people realize how stupid most Ohioans are. Ohio is NOT a battleground state in this election.[/quote]

I'd say that about most of the country.

On November 3rd Obama will have a huge ass lead, I say 10 plus points. On November 4th Obama will lose to McCain and we are fucked. This country is too god damn dumb and ignorant to vote for someone who looks a little different.

Then I hope we are fucking nuked by Russia because then we deserve it.

God fuck America!
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']Well both parties are extremely fucked up, but I'm a liberal at heart, so I DO agree with some things Obama has on plate. I agree with pretty much nothing McCain has on plate. So it's an obvious choice for me. I think you tend to lean more towards the conservative or libertarian side (I'm just guessing from your posts, don't kill me if I'm wrong), so it's definitely tough for you to pick a choice at all.[/QUOTE]

Nah, you aren't wrong in you're assessment. Although I like to think of myself as more libertarian than conservative, since I tend to have a rather open mind about moral issues and I'm all about constant change, if it's the right kind.
 
[quote name='bigdaddy']I'd say that about most of the country.

On November 3rd Obama will have a huge ass lead, I say 10 plus points. On November 4th Obama will lose to McCain and we are fucked. This country is too god damn dumb and ignorant to vote for someone who looks a little different.
[/QUOTE]

I agree 100% on this.
 
[quote name='Dead of Knight']I know they aren't mentioned in the OP, but there's no way Obama will win Ohio. No fucking way. I would bet money on it. Lots of money. There are too many ignorant idiots and racist rednecks here. I don't think a lot of people realize how stupid most Ohioans are. Ohio is NOT a battleground state in this election.[/QUOTE]

I live here in Ohio(want to hook up some time cutey!)and im optimistic. Iv seen about 10 Obama signs and only a single McCain sign. The single McCain sign was also posted in a small farm community called Oak Harbor.....I dont think their even a city yet. So to me that's a good sign. It was also really funny that the one McCain sign was posted next to a tree almost hidden behind it. It was almost like the person was embarrassed to have it. My fiancees whole family is backing Obama(though grudgingly)and most of their friends iv talked to at parties are as well. Thats as small and rural as it gets.

Also the town I live in where iv seen most of the signs is called Rossford. Its a pretty small town boarding Toledo thats made up of pretty much all white people.
 
[quote name='willardhaven']According to CNN the polls have a 4% margin of error.

So basically it's anyone's game.[/quote]

Wellll.....

A 4% margin of error does not mean that there is an equal chance of the actual numbers being 4% different in either direction as there is of the polls being right on the money. Rather, it provides a likely range for the true number, with the most likely true number being right around the quoted percentage. So, if a poll says 54-46 with 4% MOE, it does not mean that there is a good chance the actual numbers are 50-50. It's much more likely that they are 53-47 or 55-45.
 
I can't remember my statistics class completely.

Is the margin of error in these type of polls stating the "true" numbers are within 4% of the static numbers 67%,97% or 99.5% of the time?
 
[quote name='evanft']Wellll.....

A 4% margin of error does not mean that there is an equal chance of the actual numbers being 4% different in either direction as there is of the polls being right on the money. Rather, it provides a likely range for the true number, with the most likely true number being right around the quoted percentage. So, if a poll says 54-46 with 4% MOE, it does not mean that there is a good chance the actual numbers are 50-50. It's much more likely that they are 53-47 or 55-45.[/quote]

I understand that, but I assume the worst when it comes to the major news networks. I figure they doctor the percentages and slap the 4% margin on there to make it look more entertaining.
 
I've said this before and will say it again. The only poll that really matters will be the one on Election Day. The polls only feed into America's obsession with sticking with the herd. Everyone should just say, "Every state is 50/50. Vote how you want to vote and we'll count them up and tell you who won." I guess I'm just tired of national elections that ignore half of the nation. Damn the electoral college.

I know campaigns have to use these polls to divvy up funds for advertising and all that but I'm sure people in California, New York, and Texas would like to see as much as an ad for either candidate. It's ridiculous that the three biggest states are out of play since they're already red or blue. This system is a joke.

EDIT -- I spent three months in Dayton and found it to be a pretty progressive town. It's probably that way because it's a college town but I'd have to put it in the Columbus, Cleveland, Cincy camp of liberal towns in Ohio. If anything, Cincinnati is the most redneck and backward.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']I can't remember my statistics class completely.

Is the margin of error in these type of polls stating the "true" numbers are within 4% of the static numbers 67%,97% or 99.5% of the time?[/QUOTE]

95, not 97. ;)

I dunno how many standard deviations they use. With 1000+/- on the average survey, it may be 3 s.d.s (99.5%).

But the trends fluctuate over time, so who knows how accurate even one point in time may be? Obama was up for a bit, the McCain peaked after the RNCC, and now Obama's back in the lead. What may happen 5 weeks from now isn't really known yet.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']What may happen 5 weeks from now isn't really known yet.[/quote]

So what's the point of following all the polls?

And yes, there will be some serious tomfoolery by BOTH parties. Democrats will pay ghetto ass thugs to vote and Republicans will do everything they can to deny them their right.
 
[quote name='depascal22']So what's the point of following all the polls?[/QUOTE]

The emotional turmoil of ups and downs, like watching a bad movie play out in front of us.

Why do you think people want to watch Biden/Palin? To be *informed*? P'shaw. They want to watch it for the same reason that people watch NASCAR (and I don't mean "left turns," haw haw).
 
But being informed about poll numbers doesn't do anything but make us want to join the herd. It makes the candiate in the lead the "hot" pick. I'd hate for people to vote for anyone just because everyone else is doing it.

EDIT -- Sorry. I misread your post, Myke. So it's just the WWE/NASCAR element of the country that just can't wait to see a wreck.... Hmmm. Interesting.
 
No, I think it's more than that - EVERYONE wants to see a colossal clusterfuck of a debate. But it's the NASCAR mentality - the race isn't that exciting, but the potential for a monstrous tires-flying-into-the-stands wreck is exciting.

And that's what people think they're going to get.

They're going to be sorely disappointed; the only way that'll happen is if Biden offers a question to Palin and cedes floor time to her.

If he does that, someone needs to tivo that shit for me.
 
[quote name='willardhaven']Am I paranoid for thinking there will be some tomfoolery as in 2000?[/QUOTE]

Well the people that make the Simpsons seem to agree.

[quote name='mykevermin']The emotional turmoil of ups and downs, like watching a bad movie play out in front of us.

Why do you think people want to watch Biden/Palin? To be *informed*? P'shaw. They want to watch it for the same reason that people watch NASCAR (and I don't mean "left turns," haw haw).[/QUOTE]

Right. I think it stimulates the same parts of the brain that make so many people watch reality TV. That's all these debates are about, and following the campaign so close accomplishes.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']
Right. I think it stimulates the same parts of the brain that make so many people watch reality TV. That's all these debates are about, and following the campaign so close accomplishes.[/QUOTE]

I think there's some of that with the VP debates, not as much with the Presidential debates.

Undecided people tune in to help make up their mind. I watch just as I like politics and want to see how these guys handle themselves in a debate vs. in rehearsed stump speeches.

Debates show how they do at thinking on the fly, handling pressure in answering questions, dealing with someone who may be antagonizing them. You can learn a lot more about them and how they would lead in debates that you can from speeches etc.

So debates do have a use in deciding who do vote for for undecided voters IMO. The VP doesn't usually factor in much, so I'd agree there is the NASCAR phenomenon with this debate and Palin....especially after her crappy Couric interview.
 
Well Joe Biden, being that he has super powers, would avoid everything. He would fly to Obama, pick him up and they will have endless ass sex in a bar in Montreal.
 
Just got back from a walk again 4 new signs on the upper middle class block in my rural city. This time 1 was finally for McCain but that still makes 3 new Obama signs. Got about a dozen Obama signs on the block now and 1 McCain. Gives me hope that rural Ohio wont be as racist as people are thinking it will.......espeicially given that onle 2 of the houses on this block are owned by young people most are surprisingly as old as McCain ;)
 
I didn't find Ohio to be as racist as other parts of the country. Maybe the southeastern part of the state is bad, but the big cities seemed fine. It's definately not as bad as here in Indiana where everyone is a "foreigner".
 
[quote name='depascal22']I didn't find Ohio to be as racist as other parts of the country. Maybe the southeastern part of the state is bad, but the big cities seemed fine. It's definately not as bad as here in Indiana where everyone is a "foreigner".[/QUOTE]

It's not blatantly racist like say the South. They're more racist in the way that they say they don't like Obama but can't really give a decent reason because they don't want to admit they're racist. They can't give a decent reason like, say, my boyfriend's reasons, such as voting for FISA and the bailout (he's still voting for him though because he hates McCain like me).
 
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