Obama Gaining in Battleground States (Poll Discussion thread)

I didn't really think it would be a landslide, but as it gets closer it's looking like it. Unless McCain can somehow gain some ground soon there's no way he could win.
 
Well, going by my old rules, Obama's best outcome would still be winning 375-163 (and I very much doubt he could possibly win better than that, save for some huge new turnout and the polls being drastically wrong in his favor).

Things have simply gotten much worse for McCain, whose best outcome would be losing 232-306 (including FL and NV, which RCP currently has at exactly 3%). Include the 4%s and he'd lose 261-277. Now that NH has polled pretty solidly in favor of Obama, McCain has to win every single battleground state to win the election.
 
it would be a real cluster FuCk if they ended up tying. Using the NYtimes map, if McCain gets all the tossups except for CO then it would be a 269-269 tie and if you thought 2000 was bad this would be a zoo. One situation Obama could be elected but with Palin as his VP or McCain and Biden since they are chosen independently by the legislative branch.
 
Shouldn't we know that polls mean very little? The 10% "undecided" in ever state could go to McCain like they did in Obama vs Clinton.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']What's the Democratic congress approval rating nowadays?[/QUOTE]

Even worse.

http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htm

People are, and should be, very dissapointed with the entire government at this point. Bush has been terrible, but the congress has done nothing of note since the democrats got the majority.
 
congressional approval is a historically dismal measure and one that is open to a great deal of interpretation.

I'm not saying it's undeservedly low, but trying to draw conclusions from it is foolish. Dems stand to pick up even MORE seats in both houses this year, which runs contrary to what you might suspect given those approval ratings.
 
I'll bump this for our departed friend dmaul.

Right now it looks like VA is pretty solid. I don't see CO moving over to McCain either.

So my prediction for the election is 338-200 Obama with McCain getting IN, MO, NC, and WV but losing the other battleground states. But I think it could realistically range from 313-225 Obama (at this point FL is looking good for Obama, so I'm giving it to him) to 369-169 Obama (I think McCain has IN, but oddly enough another poll from WV wasn't too strong for him).

In any case, a lot would have to change for McCain to win, so it's just a matter of how one-sided Obama wins. If Obama wins by a huge margin (the 369 possibility or maybe even more) and the Democrats end up with 60 seats in the Senate and nearly 2/3 of the House, I think the Republican party is going to have some major restructuring or a split to try to regain their power. They had Congress under Clinton, but Bush barely won both elections, the Republicans are almost definitely losing this one, and they've lost most of Congress.
 
I don't see how Obama has a chance here. All I ever see is McCain signs, and the stupid fucking, "IM VOTING FOR THE CHICK" signs. I should take pictures of the local gunstore that has about 23123123123 signs out front.
 
[quote name='FloodsAreUponUS']I don't see how Obama has a chance here. All I ever see is McCain signs, and the stupid fucking, "IM VOTING FOR THE CHICK" signs. I should take pictures of the local gunstore that has about 23123123123 signs out front.[/quote]

VA right?

If VA goes blue, it's not going to be because of the southern or western more conservative parts, it's going to be because of Richmond, the north, and the east, which all are more liberal and have higher populations than the more conservative parts. I've seen plenty of McCain signs around here in southern Chesterfield, but then when I go to Richmond almost everything's Obama (though that was the same for Kerry before...). Before the primaries I saw a ton of Ron Paul shit around here in Chesterfield, so I don't know how much of that support has transferred to McCain or to Obama or a third party.
 
[quote name='SpazX']VA right?

If VA goes blue, it's not going to be because of the southern or western more conservative parts, it's going to be because of Richmond, the north, and the east, which all are more liberal and have higher populations than the more conservative parts. I've seen plenty of McCain signs around here in southern Chesterfield, but then when I go to Richmond almost everything's Obama (though that was the same for Kerry before...). Before the primaries I saw a ton of Ron Paul shit around here in Chesterfield, so I don't know how much of that support has transferred to McCain or to Obama or a third party.[/quote]

Here towards Harrisonburg all I ever see is McCain. I guess you do have a point.
 
All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:


  • Colorado
  • Florida
  • Iowa
  • Missouri
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Virginia


Virginia and Iowa aren't battlegrounds any more, as Obama has had and does have a decent lead in both states. So he's going to win, it's merely a question now of by how much. A 300+ EV victory is extremely likely.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']People are, and should be, very dissapointed with the entire government at this point. Bush has been terrible, but the congress has done nothing of note since the democrats got the majority.[/QUOTE]
Except drastically increase the GI Bill. You know, the one the GAO says is the single biggest return on investment program in the entire federal government. $6 back for every $1 paid out. A new direction for the program that insures that veterans can afford any state school, instead of just cutting a check and leaving the vet to make up the difference.

It's probably the best bill to come out of congress in a decade. People seriously need to STFU about the "do nothing Congress". They turned out an awesome bill that kicks ass for vets. They deserve credit.

Oh, and the next time someone points out that McCain is a vet and deserves vet cred, remind them that he (like virtually all Republicans) came out against it until it was obvious it was going to pass, then flipped and supported it so he didn't get busted out for opposing it.
 
[quote name='evanft']All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:


  • Colorado
  • Florida
  • Iowa
  • Missouri
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Virginia


Virginia and Iowa aren't battlegrounds any more, as Obama has had and does have a decent lead in both states. So he's going to win, it's merely a question now of by how much. A 300+ EV victory is extremely likely.[/QUOTE]



Definitely. I think he gets at least 4 of those 7 states.

I think he has Colorado, Virginia and Iowa in the bag. Ohio is looking good, as is Missouri. Florida is a toss up. He's doing well in NC, but I have a hard time seeing him winning that one.
 
[quote name='speedracer']Except drastically increase the GI Bill. You know, the one the GAO says is the single biggest return on investment program in the entire federal government. $6 back for every $1 paid out. A new direction for the program that insures that veterans can afford any state school, instead of just cutting a check and leaving the vet to make up the difference.

It's probably the best bill to come out of congress in a decade. People seriously need to STFU about the "do nothing Congress". They turned out an awesome bill that kicks ass for vets. They deserve credit.

Oh, and the next time someone points out that McCain is a vet and deserves vet cred, remind them that he (like virtually all Republicans) came out against it until it was obvious it was going to pass, then flipped and supported it so he didn't get busted out for opposing it.[/QUOTE]

That's definitely a good bill. Does nothing directly for me as I'd never consider the military, but I like it as my brother is in the airforce and hopefully it will benefit him down the road if he wants to go to school.

But it's still only 1 bill, and I'm more dissapointed that they haven't done more to stand up to the Bush administration. Not give into his budgets, put more pressure on Iraq, move to impeach Cheney etc. etc.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']That's definitely a good bill. Does nothing directly for me as I'd never consider the military, but I like it as my brother is in the airforce and hopefully it will benefit him down the road if he wants to go to school.

But it's still only 1 bill, and I'm more dissapointed that they haven't done more to stand up to the Bush administration. Not give into his budgets, put more pressure on Iraq, move to impeach Cheney etc. etc.[/QUOTE]
I agree, and hoped for more from these guys. But really, nothing ever gets done during election years and this one's no different really.

The new GI bill was a mega superstar bill. It makes sense from every angle imaginable. I'm satisfied with the Dems in congress for that one. Next year I'll be expecting significantly better.

I'm a fan of http://electoral-vote.com/. They have it right now 337-171 in favor of Obama.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']Definitely. I think he gets at least 4 of those 7 states.

I think he has Colorado, Virginia and Iowa in the bag. Ohio is looking good, as is Missouri. Florida is a toss up. He's doing well in NC, but I have a hard time seeing him winning that one.[/quote]

As a resident of NC, I'd like to say that here in Guilford County, support for Obama is off the charts, but I do agree that the state is a 50/50 shot for either candidate.

I went down to the old courthouse in downtown Greensboro to vote yesterday, and there was surprisingly large number of young black males (like myself) waiting in line to vote, so the new voter turnout will definitely help Obama's chances of winning the state.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114'] Not give into his budgets, put more pressure on Iraq, move to impeach Cheney etc. etc.[/QUOTE]

I'm sure you will likely consider this a dumb question but - impeach Cheney on what grounds? Something to do with Haliburton?

It's not bait to argue, I seriously don't know.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']I'm sure you will likely consider this a dumb question but - impeach Cheney on what grounds? Something to do with Haliburton?

It's not bait to argue, I seriously don't know.[/QUOTE]

I believe that was the main thrust of it, but it was a while back when the impeach Cheney stuff was in the news so I don't remember the main points too clearly. And I'm too sick and busy to look it up right now. You can google it as well as I, and have more time with being unemployed and all.
 
[quote name='evanft']All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:


  • Colorado
  • Florida
  • Iowa
  • Missouri
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Virginia


Virginia and Iowa aren't battlegrounds any more, as Obama has had and does have a decent lead in both states. So he's going to win, it's merely a question now of by how much. A 300+ EV victory is extremely likely.[/quote]

As a resident of Iowa and traveling all over it this past month (eastern to northern Iowa) I can definitely say that Obama has got Iowa in the palm of his hand.
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']I believe that was the main thrust of it, but it was a while back when the impeach Cheney stuff was in the news so I don't remember the main points too clearly. And I'm too sick and busy to look it up right now. You can google it as well as I, and have more time with being unemployed and all.[/QUOTE]

Ouch! :)

Ok well I did some googling, and I can't find anything that singles out Cheney from Bush. I guess that was the source of my confusion about your comment..... I'm not sure how you could try and impeach Cheney, and not also Bush.

But then again, I've yet to find any real credible reasons to do so. But this might make an interesting thread by itself.
 
[quote name='evanft']All Obama has to do is win all the Kerry states plus any one of the following:


  • Colorado
  • Florida
  • Iowa
  • Missouri
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Virginia
[/QUOTE]

Nice way of putting it. I'm sure he'll win at least one of those.
 
Obama already has Iowa (unless the polls are way off), and probably Colorado and Virginia. The real toss ups I think are Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and kinda North Carolina (and maybe Indiana, but Obama isn't even doing as well there as in North Carolina). Out of those I think Obama has a really good chance of getting Nevada, semi-decent chance of getting Ohio, and the others are too close to predict at all now, though I'd think McCain will get them.

In any case McCain loses (as long as Obama gets Colorado or Virginia), but it'll be interesting to see how all those states go.

RCP now has Montana and North Dakota both as toss ups from recent polls. I don't think Obama will get them, but it will be funny if he does.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']
But then again, I've yet to find any real credible reasons to do so. But this might make an interesting thread by itself.[/QUOTE]

Well, if you can attempt to impeach a president over perjury over a personal sex issue that never should have had him on the stand in the first place I'm sure they could find grounds for having impeachment hearings for Bush/Cheney somewhere. Be it Haliburton, lies about Iraq, illegal wire tapping, suspension of habeus corpus for enemy combatants, torture etc.

Maybe nothing to win an impeachment, but you'd think there'd be enough in there to have a hearing.
 
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Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama up 51%-41% in Indiana. I usually hate polls but that really caught my attention. It seems like Obama supporters are coming out of the woodwork around here. There are still a bunch of McCain signs but Obama ones have been popping up like weeds in the last couple weeks.
 
[quote name='depascal22']Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama up 51%-41% in Indiana. I usually hate polls but that really caught my attention. It seems like Obama supporters are coming out of the woodwork around here. There are still a bunch of McCain signs but Obama ones have been popping up like weeds in the last couple weeks.[/quote]

I'm thinking of that one as an outlier though. I think Indiana will be much closer than it was before (Bush won it in 00 by 15% and 04 by 20%), but I think McCain will get it. Maybe by 4 or 5% max.
 
I think the really crazy thing is going to be Obama's coat tails. Even in a place like here in Texas where we know our Democratic votes don't count in the prez race, people are going berserk voting. It's like the cool thing to do or something. He won't win Texas, but every single other race is being hugely affected by the presidential race. We elect judges here and no Democrat has won any of the 13 seats since 1996. The ads being shown by local Republicans judges are getting more and more hysterical the closer we get as it becomes apparent that people going for Obama are going straight ticket and with Repubs not too excited, it looks like a whole assload of state Repubs are about to be shown the door.

Our senator Cornyn is suddenly nervous and he was up by over 20 points not long ago. Culberson, the local congress scum bag, has absolutely hilarious attack ads going against the Dem (that until recently had no chance). Culberson wouldn't even acknowledge the race a month ago. Suddenly the race is under 10 and tightening every day. Even Nick Lampson is running dead even to hold the congressional seat held by Tom Delay in what is probably the most staunchly partisan Republican place I've ever seen.
 
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Polls are always WAY off!

:roll:

There is only one poll that matters, that's on November 4th. Election fraud and screw ups and alike will make this extremely close.

Obama I think will win the popular vote by 1-3 million, but McCain will win what matters. Hopefully this will lead to a new civil war, because we are over do for one.
 
[quote name='bigdaddy']Polls are always WAY off!

:roll:

There is only one poll that matters, that's on November 4th. Election fraud and screw ups and alike will make this extremely close.

Obama I think will win the popular vote by 1-3 million, but McCain will win what matters. Hopefully this will lead to a new civil war, because we are over do for one.[/quote]

2004's polls were pretty good, I assume you didn't follow them? Only the exit polls were really misleading. The only time that polls aren't that accurate are when the states are really close. But that's why there's a margin of error.
 
Yeah, the polls are generally pretty good, as long as you look at the sites that average several polls in predicting their maps. Any one poll isn't great as it's just one snap shot in time from one sample of respondents. But average a few polls over the past couple of weeks and you have a pretty good picture of how things are going in that state.

Like SpazX says, they're not of much use in states that are with in the margin of error, but they're overall pretty decent.
 
[quote name='depascal22']Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama up 51%-41% in Indiana. I usually hate polls but that really caught my attention. It seems like Obama supporters are coming out of the woodwork around here. There are still a bunch of McCain signs but Obama ones have been popping up like weeds in the last couple weeks.[/QUOTE]I think McCain is still barely ahead in Indiana, but Obama did have a rally in Indy today (one reason I didn't go there since I figured it would be busy). I know Sarah Palin is coming to my hometown on Saturday.
 
Some new state Polls from the Washington Post today.

Big Ten Battleground Polls:

Obama up 12 in Ohio, 11 in Pennsylvania, 13 in Wisconsin, 22 in Michigan, 10 in Indiana

Quinnipiac University Polls:

Obama up 13 in Pennsylvania, 14 in Ohio, 5 in Florida
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']Interesting.

According to the most accurate pollster in 2004 election, Obama 44.8%, McCain 43.7% and Not sure 11.6%.[/quote]

And then for today it was Obama 45.8% McCain 42.3%, and Not Sure 11.9%. Of course people's opinions generally don't change that much in a single day.

I would never trust just one pollster to be completely accurate, whether or not they were rated the most accurate in 2004. I think the average for the Obama/McCain difference in national polls was around 6-7% today.
 
Yeah it's crucial to look at averages and to mainly look at state polls. The national polls are fairly pointless with the electoral college.

But averages are key, I have no confidence that Obama is up as much as he is in some of those single state polls I posted, nor that the national average is that close. I like looking at the polls for fun, but you really have to look at the sites like real-clear politics and electoral-vote.com with their maps where they average several recent polls.
 
I'm betting the Republicans are getting desperate because I just got a call from the RNC telling me to vote for John McCain and other crap (attacking Obama). I ended up calling back the number, and left them TWO really nasty messages. Not sure if anyone else is getting the call.

Still, I really hope these calls do not sway opinions in my state and others, since they are battlegrounds.
 
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