Obama Gaining in Battleground States (Poll Discussion thread)

[mykevermin]

And a bit of caution for McCain, since all trends point to old considerations for the likelihood of voting for blacks and young adults are going to be much higher than they're expected to (by virtue of tradition).

The lack of landlines for many households, especially clustered among younger people, makes collection harder as well. Sure, random-digit-dialing doesn't omit people, but where do you place someone? I still have a Kentucky area code, so would they accidentally place me there?

 

[dmaul1114]

[quote name='mykevermin']Sure, random-digit-dialing doesn't omit people, but where do you place someone? I still have a Kentucky area code, so would they accidentally place me there?[/QUOTE]

That could be solved by just asking people they still live in BLANK state at the start of the survey.

We did something simlar with a street block survey I've been collecting by asking at the outset if they still lived on Street A between Streets B and C at the outset to make sure they're still at the address listed in the reverse directory software we used to pull our sample.

Much easier to deal with just states, but who knows if the political pollsters are checking on that kind of stuff.

 

[dmaul1114]

One last update of polls the day before the election:

Real Clear Politics has it at 278 Obama to 132 McCain with 128 Electoral Votes still as toss ups.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Electoral-Vote.com has it at 353 Obama to 185 McCain.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

For some important state poll of polls from CNN.com:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/03/poll-update-mccain-on-defense-in-bush-states/

Obama up 48-46 in Florida
McCain up 47-46 in Indiana
tied at 47 in Missouri
Obama up 49-44 in Nevada
Obama up 53-42 in New Hampshire
Obama up 49-48 in North Carolina
Obama up 49-45 in Ohio
Obama up 51-43 in Pennsylvania
Obama up 50-45 in Virginia

 

[cartman58]

Heh. I know a guy who works for the RNC who is in Connecticut this week. It's cracking me up that the list of states that he told me that the RNC were going to blow their wad on are states that they are getting mowed over in right now.

 

[Dead of Knight]

[quote name='cartman58']Heh. I know a guy who works for the RNC who is in Connecticut this week. It's cracking me up that the list of states that he told me that the RNC were going to blow their wad on are states that they are getting mowed over in right now.[/QUOTE]

They're actually putting people in Connecticut this week? Maybe on the orders of Joe Traitorman.

 

[cartman58]

[quote name='Dead of Knight']They're actually putting people in Connecticut this week? Maybe on the orders of Joe Traitorman.[/quote]

Yes. I'm not very knowledgeable about how the RNC and DNC do it. But he works for Bob Corker here in Chattanooga, TN. They were flying him and a very large group of guys from other Republicans into Connecticut for this last week trying to turn the tide there. So much for that.

 

[Dead of Knight]

Trying to turn the tide in Connecticut? What the ? That's incredibly laughable. If they had people in CT for that, does that mean they had people in my home state of RI too, trying to "turn the tide?"

The GOP is dumber than I ever thought possible. What waste of money.

EDIT: For reference, electoral-vote.com has CT in a 21-point lead for Obama.