Wii shortages? New productions numbers destroy previous estimates

[quote name='botticus']15 hours over the course of 5 years, or however long this generation of consoles lasts? I'm betting most casual gamers can do that, if the games are fun. They don't need to get their money's worth out of a game in the first week they own it.

But I guess if your argument is that Nintendo should lose money on hardware, and on software, I guess that would be a successful way of selling millions of consoles and millions of games and driving their business right into the ground.

Since new gamers don't currently pay anything for games, it's really kinda hard to say how much they will pay.[/quote]

The whole point of lower price structure is to sell a lot more units and games 1 million sold at $50 or 10 million sold at $20 only games now that hit past 2 million are huge titles such as Halo and GTA and Final Fantasy.
 
[quote name='botticus']15 hours over the course of 5 years, or however long this generation of consoles lasts? I'm betting most casual gamers can do that, if the games are fun. They don't need to get their money's worth out of a game in the first week they own it.

But I guess if your argument is that Nintendo should lose money on hardware, and on software, I guess that would be a successful way of selling millions of consoles and millions of games and driving their business right into the ground.

Since new gamers don't currently pay anything for games, it's really kinda hard to say how much they will pay.[/quote]

Surely the love of the general populace and the goodwill from those that formerly spoke ill of them will be enough to sustain Nintendo. Courage!
 
Wow, this thread took a turn for the worse. I'm almost sorry I posted anything about this now.

This thread has the limited scope of talking about the new production estimates. If you want to yak and complain about the Wii, do it elsewhere (like the Sony forums).
 
Well, having plenty of systems fits in with Nintendo's "try it" philosophy. I think they're really betting on people playing the Wii and then wanting to own one. Kind of like how Brain Age is supposed to sell the DS (and has, I think). I think that's what Nintendo is betting on, and hopefully it work out. That's why I expect to see them really roll out a lot of kiosks.

As for the pricing, it appears Nintendo might be making some move for the casual gamer with the whole idea of revamping old GC games with new controls. If they released this as a budget line, say about 3 months after launch, for $20 a piece I can see this bringing in a lot of casual gamers.

Nintendo's got to market this right. Brain Age is being marketed as the new Tetris, and apparently is has been in Japan, and to a lesser extent in the US. If they can find the right title to do that with for the Wii, and maybe that's how they consider Wii Sports, then I think they'll have a hit. I don't think there's nearly the stigma attached to having a console in your living room as an adult as there used to be.
 
I wana know how many consoles like my local walmart, eb, etc will be getting each. Hopefully these stores will know soon.
 
[quote name='botticus']Well, the article says between 9 and 11 million. Nintendo estimated 4 million, which was most likely conservative. So figure their internal estimate was something like 5 or 6 million, and suddenly 7 or 8 million available for shipment (not including an odd million or so that are being assembled) doesn't seem too far fetched if everything was moving smoothly.[/quote]
I don't know. 5-6 million this year seems realistic, but almost three times their estimate? It just seems a little far fetched to me.
 
[quote name='elwood731']Well, having plenty of systems fits in with Nintendo's "try it" philosophy. I think they're really betting on people playing the Wii and then wanting to own one. Kind of like how Brain Age is supposed to sell the DS (and has, I think). I think that's what Nintendo is betting on, and hopefully it work out.[/QUOTE]
They need to get the Nintendogs Wii (Dog Island?) out pronto. That game moved a lot of DSs, and it could do the same for the Wii. Wii Sports is a great bundle title, though it's not a good promotional title. As a demo, though, it will serve its purpose well.

Nintendo has things lined up to do some business this holiday, assuming these numbers are true. I doubt the numbers just a tiny bit only because if they already have millions of Wiis ready to roll, I really can't see why they didn't opt for an early November launch. I don't know how you could be "too" far in front of the holiday, but maybe that's their thinking on this.

The price I can understand--though I may not agree with it--but the launch date is still puzzling. If you have early volume, and you have the capacity to pump out enough units to cover holiday sales (I doubt they'll exceed 10 million in Nov/Dec), where's the harm in launching a little early?

Anyhow, the launch date is the only thing that makes me think maybe those estimates are a little off. I would think that Nintendo's got a good grip on their production rates, and you'd think they'd want to launch earlier rather than later. Who knows.

In any case, it's good to hear that production's coming along without a hitch. Sounds like I'll be able to grab one at or just after launch without any pre-order BS necessary. Bravo.
 
[quote name='botticus']That's a big sock.[/QUOTE]
I have big feet. But seriously, you can fit 3 DVDs in a stocking.
 
[quote name='Kaijufan']I don't know. 5-6 million this year seems realistic, but almost three times their estimate? It just seems a little far fetched to me.[/QUOTE]

If they've been manufacturing them since July, and are ramping-up production in anticipation for the holidays, I can see them having 9-11 million worldwide. The important thing in all this isn't how many systems they have on launch day. It's how quickly they can replenish the supply chain.

Let's say NA gets a million, Europe 1 million, and Japan gets a million. Those million will be gone, for the most part, by the end of the day Sunday, November 19. Gamers and parents in-the-know will snap those up (I need 2 myself. One for me, one for my niece. :) ). That next Friday is Black Friday. All the big stores have crazy sales. I'd bet you there won't be any Ps3s in stores on the 24th. But there will be XBox 360s AND Wiis.

I love all 3 systems. I'll own all 3 systems. But I don't understand why Sony wasn't better prepared to deliver more than 2 million by the end of 4Q06 when

a) One of their main competitors will be 1 year into their launch cycle. The other will LAUNCH with more consoles than Sony can produce for the entire year.

b) The PS3 will appeal to at least 3 separate markets: gamers, parents, HT enthusiasts. Of course, there may be gamer parents who are HT enthusiasts, but you get my meaning.

I'm excited about the Wii and its capabilities. I'm even more excited that I won't have to fight folks. I can save my energy for the Black Friday doorbusters. :)
 
[quote name='oyabun']
I love all 3 systems. I'll own all 3 systems. But I don't understand why Sony wasn't better prepared to deliver more than 2 million by the end of 4Q06 when
[/QUOTE]

This is exactly what makes me think Sony is in much more trouble than they let on. Of course, I bet they've tried everything they could to deliver more units, but the fact that they came out so early saying there's no way they will is not encouraging. It also points to high defect rates for the initial batch that they ARE rushing to market. All of this means I will be very hesitant to get a PS3 for myself for a while until all the dust settles on that mess. (On the flip side, Oblivion is a huge coup for them and puts people like me were on the fence about 360 vs PS3 more in their camp, IF they can sort out all their problems).

Of course, I will be getting the Wii at launch and enjoying the hell out of that up through and beyond Christmas while sticking to the computer to enjoy the antics and anecdotes of the PS3 launch :lol:.
 
[quote name='io']
Of course, I will be getting the Wii at launch and enjoying the hell out of that up through and beyond Christmas while sticking to the computer to enjoy the antics and anecdotes of the PS3 launch :lol:.[/QUOTE]

I want a PS3, but after waiting in line for 17 hours for the 360 on launch day, I'm going to pay whatever crazy amount of money GS/EB wants for a bundle. And there will be bundles online... :)

I never liked the whole "waiting in line" thing, even when I was younger. I should praise the management at the Best Buy in Burbank, IL. That was one of the 12 Best Buys that "officially" opened at midnight on release day. Their team was great, reassuring the people in the front of the line that they'd get their systems, letting the die-hards in to buy games and accessories during the day. They even VIDEOTAPED the line as it progressed so there would be no question if someone was accused of butting in. But I digress.

I don't mind showing up at 7 AM for a 10 AM open. Hell, I'd show up at 6 AM. But it's not fun to show up at 7AM for a midnight launch. That's what the PS3 launch will be like. The wait wouldn't be so bad if stores had definite plans for lines.

Hopefully, with the amount of Wiis that will be out there, the lines will be nice and orderly.
 
[quote name='oyabun']
Hopefully, with the amount of Wiis that will be out there, the lines will be nice and orderly.[/quote]At this point I think I'll just look at driving around with my friend who is coming up for the launch (hopefully with full knowledge of allocation numbers at various chains by that time), and wait till a sizeable line has formed somewhere. It's just hard to tell how people are going to react to a plentiful supply at launch. Still lineup 12 hours early, not line up at all?
 
[quote name='botticus']That's why I think I'm holding off on ExciteTruck. Nintendo cares less about that selling a million units than Activision or Ubisoft their games.[/QUOTE]
I would like to say the same thing, but I have been waiting for Zelda:TP for so long I need to get the game as soon as I can. Other then that the rest of the games I plan to get are 3rd party(I'm looking at getting Marvel:UA along with Zelda at launch).
 
[quote name='oyabun']If they've been manufacturing them since July, and are ramping-up production in anticipation for the holidays, I can see them having 9-11 million worldwide. The important thing in all this isn't how many systems they have on launch day. It's how quickly they can replenish the supply chain.

Let's say NA gets a million, Europe 1 million, and Japan gets a million. Those million will be gone, for the most part, by the end of the day Sunday, November 19. Gamers and parents in-the-know will snap those up (I need 2 myself. One for me, one for my niece. :) ). That next Friday is Black Friday. All the big stores have crazy sales. I'd bet you there won't be any Ps3s in stores on the 24th. But there will be XBox 360s AND Wiis.

I love all 3 systems. I'll own all 3 systems. But I don't understand why Sony wasn't better prepared to deliver more than 2 million by the end of 4Q06 when

a) One of their main competitors will be 1 year into their launch cycle. The other will LAUNCH with more consoles than Sony can produce for the entire year.

b) The PS3 will appeal to at least 3 separate markets: gamers, parents, HT enthusiasts. Of course, there may be gamer parents who are HT enthusiasts, but you get my meaning.

I'm excited about the Wii and its capabilities. I'm even more excited that I won't have to fight folks. I can save my energy for the Black Friday doorbusters. :)[/quote]

I can see 9-11 million by the end of quarter 1 2007, but it just seems to me a bad business decision to have that many consoles out by the end of the year, since there is no way demand is going to be that high.
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough how many consoles they've made and will have available. Of course, until the final specs for the Wii are announced it's kinda hard for me to make a half way decent guess as to how many units they'll have made.

As for Sony not having more then 2 million units, it's because of the stupid Blu Ray drive and the lack of blue laser diodes. If they just used a standard DVD drive, which would have been the smart thing to do, I bet they could have made their orginal estimate of 4 million units by the end of the year.
 
That much demand seems reasonable to me. There's a ton of positive buzz about it, and because of that and the price, a lot of casual gamers along with most hard core gamers will probably buy it pretty fast after launch. It's got a really strong line up too, which won't hurt.
 
Seeing as how the 360 has sold less then 6 million world wide so far I doubt demand will be that high for the first 2 months, even with demand for the Wii being much higher in Japan then the 360.
 
Am I missing something here? Why is everyone saying they will buy 3rd party games at launch? Is that some unspoken vow to support 3rd parties who are supporting the Wii? It's just wierd that I see people talking about that when I never saw the original discussion of that aspect (is there a thread for it somewhere?). I can only assume that's what you all mean.

Me, I will be doing the opposite, as it is much more CAG-ey. The first party Nintendo titles will not drop in price any time soon, but Rayman and Spongebob and Red Steel and the rest will be $20 soon enough. I'll get them then. I do have Elebits preordered for the plush at EB, plus my kids thought the video was pretty cool and really want it. If it holds up under reviews I'll keep that preorder and pay full price for it, but that's the only one so far. I just preordered a second Zelda today though (using the 20% bonus at EB - I'll probably cancel my GR preorder for it later). All of my other preorders are for Nintendo titles (MP3, WarioWare, and Mario Galaxy and SSBB as soon as GR adds them).
 
[quote name='io']Am I missing something here? Why is everyone saying they will buy 3rd party games at launch? Is that some unspoken vow to support 3rd parties who are supporting the Wii? It's just wierd that I see people talking about that when I never saw the original discussion of that aspect (is there a thread for it somewhere?). I can only assume that's what you all mean.
[/quote]Yeah, I might end up paying more than I would normally, but it's simply an effort to give third parties good returns on their initial investments, leading to more third parties and continued support from third parties. It's well known that Nintendo is the biggest competitor of third parties on their systems. It's not really that I'm going to be buying games I didn't want to buy, more so that if I'm on the fence about a first party game, I'll hold off on it, and pick up another third party game instead. Zelda is obviously getting bought at launch though.
 
Looking at the subject line, I just love the fact that when a person uses the systems name, 99% of the time they are using a pun without even knowing it.
 
[quote name='strayfoxx']Looking at the subject line, I just love the fact that when a person uses the systems name, 99% of the time they are using a pun without even knowing it.[/QUOTE]

:applause: Thanks for pointing that out. I LOL'd.

Anyway, this is fantastic news.
 
[quote name='botticus']Yeah, I might end up paying more than I would normally, but it's simply an effort to give third parties good returns on their initial investments, leading to more third parties and continued support from third parties. It's well known that Nintendo is the biggest competitor of third parties on their systems. It's not really that I'm going to be buying games I didn't want to buy, more so that if I'm on the fence about a first party game, I'll hold off on it, and pick up another third party game instead. Zelda is obviously getting bought at launch though.[/QUOTE]

Well you say that, but what else is there at launch? Excite Truck. Not exactly the best offering. There are great looking third party games (Elebits, Trauma Center, Super Monkey Ball, etc), but Nintendo looks like they're spacing out their big stuff to try and give the 3rd parties some breathing room.
 
[quote name='furyk']Well you say that, but what else is there at launch? Excite Truck. Not exactly the best offering. There are great looking third party games (Elebits, Trauma Center, Super Monkey Ball, etc), but Nintendo looks like they're spacing out their big stuff to try and give the 3rd parties some breathing room.[/QUOTE]

Well, yeah, I guess I'm actually going 50/50 - getting Zelda and Elebits, and that's it for a while. I will wait for a price drop on Exctie Truck, as well as all the other 3rd party games coming out at launch. But I will be picking up Metroid/WarioWare/Mario Galaxy/SSBB as soon as they come out.

Oh, I might pick up Dragon Quest Swords (did anyone catch the reference to that in Dragon Quest Heroes by the way?) if it gets good reviews. So if that is the case I'll be supporting 3rd parties 2:1 over Nintendo - but as Furyk says, that is more by default since Nintendo's releases are spaced out.
 
Dude's right...Nintendo takes forever to drop the prices of their launch titles...Excite Truck will probably be 49.99 for a year...I can't wait for this sytem now...I'm very hype about it...Wasn't initially...But the more I see of it, the more I love it...There is just something about the way they make games...Zelda is case in point, and hardcore gamers like us, will respect that out of the gate...It will be the most successful Nintendo system since SNES...
 
I'm still for sure gonna camp out for it. And I'm getting Zelda at launch (duh) and Red Steel with it. I agree with the above post, after E3 I thought it was a good system but as more and more information about it comes out I am dying to play it. And I will also be buying WarioWare/Metroid/SSBB/Mario the second they come out.
 
[quote name='daroga']Especailly Zelda. The adoption rate on that game is going to be almost 1:1 as all the gamers get their hands on the Wii first. Although, I'm sure Nintendo knows this and is planning accordingly.[/quote]
:lol: Not hardly, but it will sell very well.
 
[quote name='Kaijufan']I can see 9-11 million by the end of quarter 1 2007, but it just seems to me a bad business decision to have that many consoles out by the end of the year, since there is no way demand is going to be that high.
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough how many consoles they've made and will have available. Of course, until the final specs for the Wii are announced it's kinda hard for me to make a half way decent guess as to how many units they'll have made.
[/QUOTE]

That's true. It could be a shrewd business move to produce that many... or a really dumb one. If the Wii really is a Gamecube 1.5, then Nintendo might have decided to reduce its GC production to ramp-up Wii production. I think 9 million shipped worldwide is believeable.


As for Sony not having more then 2 million units, it's because of the stupid Blu Ray drive and the lack of blue laser diodes. If they just used a standard DVD drive, which would have been the smart thing to do, I bet they could have made their orginal estimate of 4 million units by the end of the year.
Click to expand...

I agree. That decision may backfire on Sony.
 
[quote name='oyabun'][quote name='Kaijufan']I can see 9-11 million by the end of quarter 1 2007, but it just seems to me a bad business decision to have that many consoles out by the end of the year, since there is no way demand is going to be that high. [/QUOTE]

That's true. It could be a shrewd business move to produce that many... or a really dumb one. If the Wii really is a Gamecube 1.5, then Nintendo might have decided to reduce its GC production to ramp-up Wii production. I think 9 million shipped worldwide is believeable.
[/QUOTE]

I'm going with shrewd. The consoles been complete for a while now and I doubt they pay their Asian manufacturers overtime. They could just store the completed consoles and be ready to staff up with temps to box them up if the demand goes through the roof. The risk of course is that a bulging inventory could end up costing them a lot of extra cash, both in storage costs and in lost gains from cheaper manufacturing with age.
 
[quote name='FriskyTanuki']:lol: Not hardly, but it will sell very well.[/QUOTE]

Yeah I don't quite think Zelda is going to hit 1:1 either. It is a solid title and franchise, but it is definitely not for everyone. It doesn't have that widespread appeal that Mario garners either. Yes, it will do well, but hardly 1:1.
 
[quote name='Corvin']Yeah I don't quite think Zelda is going to hit 1:1 either. It is a solid title and franchise, but it is definitely not for everyone. It doesn't have that widespread appeal that Mario garners either. Yes, it will do well, but hardly 1:1.[/quote]what does 1:1 mean?
 
[quote name='Corvin']Yeah I don't quite think Zelda is going to hit 1:1 either. It is a solid title and franchise, but it is definitely not for everyone. It doesn't have that widespread appeal that Mario garners either. Yes, it will do well, but hardly 1:1.[/QUOTE]

I dont think anyone really expects a 1:1 ratio, but a 8:10 or 9:10 ratio is probably reasonable through the first month or so.
 
[quote name='iufoltzie']I dont think anyone really expects a 1:1 ratio, but a 8:10 or 9:10 ratio is probably reasonable through the first month or so.[/quote]
I still even doubt that much. There's still the GameCube version coming a few weeks later that'll take some of those potential sales away from the Wii version.
 
[quote name='FriskyTanuki']I still even doubt that much. There's still the GameCube version coming a few weeks later that'll take some of those potential sales away from the Wii version.[/quote]

While I don't really have an opinion on what the ratio will be, anyone who has a Wii won't buy the gamecube version, they will buy the Wii version if they are going too, and so the GC version shouldn't effect the ratio of Wiis sold to WiiZeldas sold.
 
[quote name='drfunk85']While I don't really have an opinion on what the ratio will be, anyone who has a Wii won't buy the gamecube version, they will buy the Wii version if they are going too, and so the GC version shouldn't effect the ratio of Wiis sold to WiiZeldas sold.[/quote]
Funny. I'll be getting a Wii and waiting for the GC version, so there goes your prediction. ;)
 
[quote name='FriskyTanuki']Funny. I'll be getting a Wii and waiting for the GC version, so there goes your prediction. ;)[/quote]

Well, as is everything in life, there are no absolutes. Maybe I should have prefaced it by saying almost all who buy the Wii will but the Wii version instead of the GC version, or 99% will. There's always exceptions. I just can't fathom any significant number that will effect a ratio more than a fraction of a percentage.
 
What was the number we are getting here in North America on launch?
Was it 1 million, or more?

Maybe that is a lot, but how do you split up 1 million Wii's throughout all of the US and Canada (and Mexico?) and think that's enough?

Has there been any word on the exact amount we would get and..like how many certain stores will carry? Example: Gamestop/EBgames getting 10 each, Walmarts getting 20, etc.

Luckily for me there's a Gamestop, a 24 hour Wal-Mart AND a KBToys in the same shopping plaza. So hopefully there isn't a problem come Nov 19. But there's also a mall (that has a EB and Gamestop_ and there's a BB and CC right around the corner--and that's about 10 minutes from me.

There's also a Target down the road from that Wal-Mart. And they just opened a new Target from me about 10 minutes as well.

And now that I'm thinking about it, there's ANOTHER Gamestop AND EBGames along with a Kmart on the way to that mall. (And even a Gamestop NEAR the mall, lol)

So is it safe to think that I SHOULD be able to obtain a Wii on November 19 being that I am around alot of stores?
 
We'll probably know in the next couple days how many EB/GS stores are getting, if they are going to be taking preorders on Friday. But if they're getting ~16 PS3s per store at an expected 400k through NA, I would imagine they'll be getting 30+ Wiis.
 
[quote name='botticus']We'll probably know in the next couple days how many EB/GS stores are getting, if they are going to be taking preorders on Friday. But if they're getting ~16 PS3s per store at an expected 400k through NA, I would imagine they'll be getting 30+ Wiis.[/QUOTE]

And if they are getting 30+, I would imagine a place like wal-mart or Best Buy would get more than that, right? I'm really trying to avoid giving any business to GS, so hopefully I can just walk into any store and grab one on the 19th.
 
[quote name='munch']And if they are getting 30+, I would imagine a place like wal-mart or Best Buy would get more than that, right? I'm really trying to avoid giving any business to GS, so hopefully I can just walk into any store and grab one on the 19th.[/quote]I would imagine the big box stores would get more, but that will vary on a store by store basis (I seem to recall the Best Buys here varying greatly in the number of 360s they were getting).
 
[quote name='botticus']We'll probably know in the next couple days how many EB/GS stores are getting, if they are going to be taking preorders on Friday. But if they're getting ~16 PS3s per store at an expected 400k through NA, I would imagine they'll be getting 30+ Wiis.[/QUOTE]

That's what I'm thinking. At 1 million, there will be, roughly, 2.5 times as many as PS3s or 360s on launch day.

For example(since I know the number available), I snagged my 360 at Sam's Club. They got 20. I'd expect them to have 50 or so Wiis on launch day.
 
[quote name='FriskyTanuki']I still even doubt that much. There's still the GameCube version coming a few weeks later that'll take some of those potential sales away from the Wii version.[/QUOTE]

I dont think 8:10 or more is such an outrageous prediction, COD2 for 360 was picked up by a large percentage of 360 customers upon launch, and it doesnt have the appeal of being one of Nintendo's biggest franchises ever
 
[quote name='zman73']I dont think 8:10 or more is such an outrageous prediction, COD2 for 360 was picked up by a large percentage of 360 customers upon launch, and it doesnt have the appeal of being one of Nintendo's biggest franchises ever[/QUOTE]

COD 2 was picked up by a large percentage of customers at launch simply because nothing at launch was really screaming "buy me". With the Wii, you've got at least five potentially great to classic games at launch plus the whole load of ports that always get launched with a system. I think a 1:2 adoption rate would be huge for Zelda. Anything above that is astronomical especially considering every US owner has a system and a game out of the box. I think quite a few parents are just going to be happy having Wii Sports for the kids to start out with.
 
The article Cheapy mentioned on the CAGcast today put estimated sell-through numbers at 500,000 for Madden. That would be about the 1:2 ratio, and I would imagine Zelda would beat that. Of course, no one really knows how these places go about coming up with these sell-through estimates.
 
2 million launch units.

Wow Wii. This is going to be one merry Christmas.

Although this new article states that Nintendo is estimating 7-9 million units by the end of 4th quarter. Not exactly the 11 million we've been hearing about, but then again, it's probably Nintendo throwing out conservative numbers like always.
 
[quote name='furyk']COD 2 was picked up by a large percentage of customers at launch simply because nothing at launch was really screaming "buy me". With the Wii, you've got at least five potentially great to classic games at launch plus the whole load of ports that always get launched with a system. I think a 1:2 adoption rate would be huge for Zelda. Anything above that is astronomical especially considering every US owner has a system and a game out of the box. I think quite a few parents are just going to be happy having Wii Sports for the kids to start out with.[/quote]
Exactly, the Wii Sports pack-in will be enough for quite a few people that are getting them as gifts. Along with that are the people that aren't interested in Zelda, but the other games available at launch, that will take some more of the consoles. I think a .7:1 to .8:1 is most likely, though Wii Sports will beat it and outsell it for obvious reasons.

What are the 5 "great to classic" launch games that you mentioned? I'm only coming up with Zelda at the moment.
 
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