Will the DOW hit 5000?

This may very be, and likely is, a bear market rally.....but that doesn't mean it isn't profitable.

It's only a suckers rally to the poor fools who buy the top, not to those that bought the drastically oversold conditions and are selling into the rally.
 
[quote name='BillyBob29']This may very be, and likely is, a bear market rally.....but that doesn't mean it isn't profitable.

It's only a suckers rally to the poor fools who buy the top, not to those that bought the drastically oversold conditions and are selling into the rally.[/quote]

I think you need to reevaluate this opinion in light of the insane amounts of money being printed and spent to prop things up. The fundamentals have changed due to these government actions.. It's very bad for the long run health of our economy and our government debt..but for the short term, it's party time. I don't think we will hit the old lows again.
 
[quote name='Capitalizt']I think you need to reevaluate this opinion in light of the insane amounts of money being printed and spent to prop things up. The fundamentals have changed due to these government actions.. It's very bad for the long run health of our economy and our government debt..but for the short term, it's party time. I don't think we will hit the old lows again.[/QUOTE]

My opinion always changes. I constantly alter my postions based on what the market is telling me. I don't get married to any perspective or positions, I take what the market gives me. However, at this point all I see is a bear market rally. We have significant overhead resistance and even with this recent rally, the long term charts still look horrible, the earnings outlook still looks very weak.

The market is a rubber-band. It got stretched to far to the downside and it is now snapping back. IMO, this is an oversold rally not the start of a new long term bull market. But like I said, that doesn't mean it hasn't been incredibly profitable. I do think all this intervention is going to be very bullish for the metals/materials/energy sector over the years to come.

I also take issue with the idea that things have changed. We haven't solved the problem, we are just moving the problem to a different area and basically looking at it through rose colored glasses.

I've been saying for a long time that all this government action could very well give us a mini-bull market within the context of the larger bear market. However, the long term implications of all this government intervention are pretty negative. We are following a lot of the Japan playbook from the 90's in terms of stimulus plans and look how well their markets have done since the initial crash.........
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']Unemployment report tomorrow. Then again, companies don't need people to buy their products when the government will lend them money without end.[/QUOTE]

:applause:
 
[quote name='mykevermin']ADP report says =742,000 jobs lost in March.

ADP usually overestimates the BLS finding.[/quote]

So, the "unemployment" rate will only be the highest since Carter instead of Hoover?
 
[quote name='mykevermin']ADP report says =742,000 jobs lost in March.

ADP usually overestimates the BLS finding.[/quote]
noose.jpg
.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']So, the "unemployment" rate will only be the highest since Carter instead of Hoover?[/quote]

For now...
 
[quote name='rickonker']An outlier? Not in Europe.[/quote]

Riots in Moldova affect us as much as bankruptcy in Iceland.

It is just time for sex, not panic sex.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/business/06stress.html?_r=2&hp

Banks are doing fine.[/QUOTE]
HAY I work for them. I was going through jitters of losing my job at Countrywide... I don't want to go through them again at BoA.

What does everyone think about nationalizing banks? Bad idea? Or good? I don't know what I think of a government run bank. The government seems to be filled with assholes and/or idiots. But the individuals who have and are currently running the financial sector also seem to be filled with assholes and/or idiots. So, I think privately owned banks have a slight edge given that less government control is usually better.
 
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The government does a such a great job running our other programs, I don't see why they shouldn't also run the banks........oh wait.
 
[quote name='Friend of Sonic']HAY I work for them. I was going through jitters of losing my job at Countrywide... I don't want to go through them again at BoA.

What does everyone think about nationalizing banks? Bad idea? Or good? I don't know what I think of a government run bank. The government seems to be filled with assholes and/or idiots. But the individuals who have and are currently running the financial sector also seem to be filled with assholes and/or idiots. So, I think privately owned banks have a slight edge given that less government control is usually better.[/QUOTE]
It doesn't make much of a difference either way.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']And some people thought things were going to get better.

Is California still handing out IOUs?[/QUOTE]

California is merely the bow of this ship America.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']California is merely the bow of this ship America.[/QUOTE]

Indeed. Better make sure you're not letting the government withhold too much in tax or you'll be getting an IOU as well.
 
Earlier in this thread, someone mentioned that they would have liked for Bush to have lost all the Social Security money in the Stock Market, just so people could see how bad the free market is.

Seems to me, that would do a better job of showing everyone how much you should trust the government with your retirement funds.

This is the same government so many of you trust to educate your children.
This is the same government so many of you want to run your health care.

This goes to show what happens when we start soaking the "evil rich" for tax money to run the government. When they're no longer around (either by leaving or by losing their assets), everyone still expects the government to support them the same (or more), in spite of the fact that they're not taking in as much money.

Well, when that fails, let's just raise taxes on the remaining "evil rich" more. I mean, it worked out so well for Maryland...
 
[quote name='UncleBob']Earlier in this thread, someone mentioned that they would have liked for Bush to have lost all the Social Security money in the Stock Market, just so people could see how bad the free market is.

Seems to me, that would do a better job of showing everyone how much you should trust the government with your retirement funds.

This is the same government so many of you trust to educate your children.
This is the same government so many of you want to run your health care.

This goes to show what happens when we start soaking the "evil rich" for tax money to run the government. When they're no longer around (either by leaving or by losing their assets), everyone still expects the government to support them the same (or more), in spite of the fact that they're not taking in as much money.

Well, when that fails, let's just raise taxes on the remaining "evil rich" more. I mean, it worked out so well for Maryland...[/QUOTE]

The crazy forum I first saw that graphic was arguing that our economy is in deep shit not that the rich were being overtaxed.

A year ago, it wasn't a guarantee the DOW would dip below 10,000.

It isn't just a matter of the wealthy fleeing high taxation, but more so that the wealthy are ceasing to exist.

...

I'm sure our government will TRY to tax everybody with a job into oblivion in an attempt to keep everybody else without a job placated.

However, too many people don't have jobs right now and some of those people are going off of the unemployed rolls because their extended benefits are expiring. Unless the government extends their civility bribes another year or two, people with no money and lots of free time are going to be a significant percentage of our country.
 
[quote name='fatherofcaitlyn']
It isn't just a matter of the wealthy fleeing high taxation, but more so that the wealthy are ceasing to exist.

...

I'm sure our government will TRY to tax everybody with a job into oblivion in an attempt to keep everybody else without a job placated.

[/QUOTE]

Yep. We already are seeing the rumbling of this with the ridiculous health care proposals that are going to be funded by the wealthy. This administration seems hell bent on creating a single class for americans.

Sorry, but I was brought up that you earn what you want, not fuck up you life by failing school, having too many kids, and then looking for the government to help you out because you are "struggling".
 
[quote name='GuilewasNK']Yep. We already are seeing the rumbling of this with the ridiculous health care proposals that are going to be funded by the wealthy. This administration seems hell bent on creating a single class for americans.

Sorry, but I was brought up that you earn what you want, not fuck up you life by failing school, having too many kids, and then looking for the government to help you out because you are "struggling".[/QUOTE]

Aiming below the belt, then, it's your fault that you had such a long, difficult, trying period of time looking for work because you couldn't find anything to do in the town you live in, right?
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Aiming below the belt, then, it's your fault that you had such a long, difficult, trying period of time looking for work because you couldn't find anything to do in the town you live in, right?[/QUOTE]

It isn't below the belt, it's a fair criticism and it was my fault. I am ultimately responsible for the position I put myself in, no one else. There are certain things in retrospect that I should have done differently, but I am not going to expect the government to fix problems I created for myself. I needed to look in the mirror, kick myself in the ass, and then get back on track.
 
[quote name='Msut77']Do you guys happen to believe that things are going to be this bad forever?[/QUOTE]

Just until my kids are out of college. My son is 3.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Yeah; I'm sure they'll be investigated.

:lol:

:cry:[/QUOTE]

Just makes me want to pay off debt faster.

EDIT: The best thing about this crisis is that I'll thrive from it. Once hyperinflation hits, I'll sell one of my houses and pay off both houses, the credit card debt and the student loan debit. If I hang on long enough, I might be able to pay for both kids' college funds. The shame is people like my father will have their nest egg wiped out.
 
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Likely because he feels having assets are inflation-proof, because you can always sell them for the current inflated dollar value versus sitting on actual cash which loses it's value.

___________________

Goldman Sach's will never come to justice. It's kind of hard when most of those in the government that could do something about them are either getting rich off them or are former Goldman Sach's execs themselves.
 
[quote name='thrustbucket']Likely because he feels having assets are inflation-proof, because you can always sell them for the current inflated dollar value versus sitting on actual cash which loses it's value.[/QUOTE]

Pretty much.

My dad might sell some of his land if things get tight, but most of his assets are tied to a 401k or naturally lose value such as his camping trailer or towing truck.

To a limited extent, he tried to be smart: he put as much money as possible into his 401k. However, he spent the rest of his money.

If he could live on the money I make (with my kids and consumer debt), he could have retired 5 years ago.
 
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