[quote name='CheapyD']If you think about that dollar amount, they basically put aside enough money to fix EVERY 360 in the marketplace. If we could fast forward a year, I bet the failure rate would be even higher than this survey shows.[/quote]
Not necessarily, as long as several factors come into play:
1) the 360 continues to sell at the same rate it has
2) future hardware revisions remain as unreliable as previous iterations (despite the numbers in this poll, there may be some credence to the "falcons are more reliable" notion - but we have, honestly, no idea if they might be disproportionately represented in any of the 4 categories that would tell us how they differ)
3) what the sales of used/refurb 360 consoles look like. Consumers are more aware of the 360's reliability issues than would typically be the case (e.g., only those active in gaming circles being aware of those issues), so depending on how many used or refurbished consoles cycle into the market, that may impact numbers in one way or another. If they are low, while hardware revisions alleviate most of the console's endemic problems, then we may see the proportion of dead 360's drop.
We have not had an unusual increase in user registrations during the poll
That answers, indirectly, my previous question. Thanks.
I don't see why we couldn't think that 59-60% is the actual predicted failure rate of a given 360 console. One way to actually *guarantee* what the failure rate of the 360 is would be to randomly sample CAGs. We get the same consoles everyone else does, so perhaps sending a PM to 1000 or so (maybe 500 if more feasible) CAGs to ask them (1) if their 360 has died, and (2) if so, how many have they had die on them. This way you could get both a scientifically valid and reliable estimate of how many new storebought consoles die, as well as a valid and reliable estimate of how many 360s die (including refurbed and repaired consoles' second and third deaths as independent events).
Is that feasible to do, Cheapy? It would, no doubt, provide CAGs and gamers in general with the first valid death rate of the console. If you can get the time from purchase to death as well, I could calculate a "life table" for a 360, which would give the month-to-month probability that your 360 would die.
c'mon, let the statistical nerds have their fun, man!