I wouldn't exaggerate the figure to 90%, more like between 60 and 75%, but there's a difference in downloading a great movie and a great game. Movies are static.. you know what will happen every time and you know the result. Games are dynamic. Now here's the kicker.
Why will people be more likely to buy a movie that they've bootlegged versus a game that's forever changing?
The answer? Price, and depending on the version, quality. Movies can come in several forms. A full DVD with menus and whatnot can run about 4GB. A SVCD single movie by itself will run 1.6gb.. games can run anywhere between 1mb to infinite. More people would be willing to spend $15 on something that doesn't change versus $50 on something that changes every time you play.
I think that this might be the exception to the rule. Everyone wants Halo 2 to play it on XBox Live, but some colleges aren't allowing XBox Live, so you'll get piracy there. I dunno, it'll probably eventually balance itself out. I mean, this game is pushing two million units at 50 (wow, I'd love to work for Bungie right now), god only knows how many it could do when it drops to 19 in.. oh, what, 3 or 4 years? Especially with Christmas coming up.. while PS2 has GTA:SA, MGS3, and GT4 as their big hits this fall.. Microsoft has KOTOR2, Halo 2, and Forza (launches after Christmas though).. this piracy is bad news for them, but I think they'll still pull out ahead. The only real challenge out of GTA:SA vs. Halo 2, MGS3 vs. KOTOR2 and Forza vs. GT4 is the MGS3/KOTOR2. Halo 2 will win and Forza will win (if not only because GT4 nixed the online mode).
Wow, how'd I go from talking about piracy to holiday sellers? I rule at rambling.