2012 MLB Discussion

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[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Josh Hamilton has been a disaster for months. I'd honestly be surprised if he ends the year with an average above .250 at this point. His chase rate is off the charts.[/QUOTE]


It's Baseball, you can be the best player in the world and still have a bad month. :(
 
Yeah, it's pretty pathetic, and this is exactly the reason he won't get 20 million a year. At least not from the Rangers. He's got absolutely no plate discipline. He will not take pitches nor work counts 90% of the time, and when he finally gets a pitch to hit, he wiffs most of the time.

Take tonight for example, Frieri tosses him three fastballs in his wheelhouse, and he wiffs on every single one.
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']It's Baseball, you can be the best player in the world and still have a bad month year. :([/QUOTE]
^
 
Obviously this has been an extremely disappointing year for me. I still watch the Phillies every game, but I'd be lying if I said it didn't feel like someone was punching me in the gut every goddamn game. I'm almost hoping they gut this entire team, I don't think things can get any worse at this point. I've read that teams actually want Rollins and Victorino and I say TAKE THEM PLEASE!
 
Phillies fans are such pussies. :lol: One bad year after their recent run, and they want to break up the team. I guess they've forgotten about all the shitty years they had before the last half-decade or so.

Also, go Braves.
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']It's Baseball, you can be the best player in the world and still have a bad month. :([/QUOTE]

There's having a bad month, then there's swinging at 50% of pitches out of the strike zone for two months. He's making Delmon Young and Jeff Francoeur look patient, and the guys closest to his 65.2% contact rate - Carlos Pena: 66.9%, Adam Dunn: 67.0% -, Pena has a 42.9% swing rate and a 26.9% chase rate, Dunn has a 39.6% swing rate and a 22.0% chase rate. Hamilton has a 59.2% swing rate and a 46% chase rate. His 20% swinging strike rate is worst in baseball by a mile - Danny Espinosa is second, at 14.7%, and Chris Davis is third, at 14.6%. Hamilton also has the lowest Zone% in baseball, so he should be putting the bat on his shoulder and taking walks.

Worse than having a bad month, he's going to flame out of baseball unless he makes an adjustment.
 
[quote name='pitfallharry219']Phillies fans are such pussies. :lol: One bad year after their recent run, and they want to break up the team. I guess they've forgotten about all the shitty years they had before the last half-decade or so.

Also, go Braves.[/QUOTE]

I'm not sure they should have traded Delgado for Dempster. A 22 year old heavy GB pitcher with a stud SS in a pitcher's park is a pretty sweet combo.
 
[quote name='DestroVega']Ichiro to the Yankees. Stunner. Never saw that coming.[/QUOTE]

Me either. Haven't heard any rumors that the Yankees were interested in him. After it was announced Gardner was done for the year, I heard a lot of names being throw around, like Span, Upton, and Victorino, but no Ichiro.
 
[quote name='pitfallharry219']Phillies fans are such pussies. :lol: One bad year after their recent run, and they want to break up the team. I guess they've forgotten about all the shitty years they had before the last half-decade or so.

Also, go Braves.[/QUOTE]

This isn't even a bad year, it's a horrible year. And I'm saying to get rid of the guys that have been sucking for the last 3 years, Rollins and Victorino. While I like Hamels and would like to see him stay, they need hitting and a not terrible bullpen so his money might be better spent elsewhere. We see what great starting pitching can give you, a winning season and a fucking aweful playoffs.

And Ichiro to the Yankees is extremely shocking, where the hell did that come from?
 
[quote name='tcrash247']This isn't even a bad year, it's a horrible year. And I'm saying to get rid of the guys that have been sucking for the last 3 years, Rollins and Victorino. While I like Hamels and would like to see him stay, they need hitting and a not terrible bullpen so his money might be better spent elsewhere. We see what great starting pitching can give you, a winning season and a fucking aweful playoffs.

And Ichiro to the Yankees is extremely shocking, where the hell did that come from?[/QUOTE]

Apparently he asked to be traded. Solid move by the Yankees.
 
[quote name='tcrash247']This isn't even a bad year, it's a horrible year. And I'm saying to get rid of the guys that have been sucking for the last 3 years, Rollins and Victorino. While I like Hamels and would like to see him stay, they need hitting and a not terrible bullpen so his money might be better spent elsewhere. We see what great starting pitching can give you, a winning season and a fucking aweful playoffs.

And Ichiro to the Yankees is extremely shocking, where the hell did that come from?[/QUOTE]

Victorino had his best career season last year (5.2 WAR), I've been hearing the Giants are looking into him, but for some reason, I really don't like the guy, I think it's his crazy eyes or his scuffles in the past. The Phillies need a lot of things now, it sucks that they're stuck with Howard until 2016 @ 25mil a year. Ton of payroll for a guy who has played like a $25mil player since 2009. They just have too many holes right now and a lot of aging players, I have a feeling they won't be World Series contenders for a few more years while they kind of rebuild.

Giants are also looking into Chris Perez , if they get him for the right price that will almost instantly fix our bullpen moving Casilla back to a setup role with Romo. I'd love for them to trade for Choo as well.

Awful trade proposal:
Indians - Choo and Perez to the Giants
Giants - Belt, Schierholtz, Tommy Joseph, Runzler ?
 
[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Hamilton for Hamels... who says no first?[/QUOTE]

Give me Michael Olt instead. Hamilton isn't going to help us this season and we won't be signing him in the offseason.

[quote name='Beatofficer']Victorino had his best career season last year (5.2 WAR), I've been hearing the Giants are looking into him, but for some reason, I really don't like the guy, I think it's his crazy eyes or his scuffles in the past. The Phillies need a lot of things now, it sucks that they're stuck with Howard until 2016 @ 25mil a year. Ton of payroll for a guy who has played like a $25mil player since 2009. They just have too many holes right now and a lot of aging players, I have a feeling they won't be World Series contenders for a few more years while they kind of rebuild.[/QUOTE]

You're right, I didn't realize his WAR was so high last year. So he had a good year last year, a crap year two years ago and a crap year this year. I still don't want him.

And he is a huge asshole of a player, he's pretty dirty and tries to pull a lot of fast ones on the umps.

Howard's contract sucks, Papelblown is making WAY too much and Rollins is worth nowhere near what they're paying him, and that's after no other teams wanted him. I'm happy that Polanco is going to be gone after this season, he's pretty useless now. Believe me, I've loved the past 5 years but it's quite pathetic now.
 
The fucking MASH unit theme continues with Colby Lewis now done for the rest of the season. That one really hurts, as now the Rangers have to hit the trade market hard and get a starter because Colby was their ace in the postseason.
 
Phillies about to resign Hamels for 6/137.5mil, I'm sure fans are happy about this, but it doesn't seem like a good thing that they have 60mil/yr for three pitchers for the next four years on top of Howards 20mil.
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']Phillies about to resign Hamels for 6/137.5mil, I'm sure fans are happy about this, but it doesn't seem like a good thing that they have 60mil/yr for three pitchers for the next four years on top of Howards 20mil.[/QUOTE]

Don't forget the $60 million to Jonathan Papelbon
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']Phillies about to resign Hamels for 6/137.5mil, I'm sure fans are happy about this, but it doesn't seem like a good thing that they have 60mil/yr for three pitchers for the next four years on top of Howards 20mil.[/QUOTE]

I'm happy, but you're right, it's not a good thing to have all that money tied up. I'd really like either Lee or Halladay to go (preferably Halladay) so we can use that money to get some kind of hitting. And it's 69mil/yr about for our 3 pitchers plus 25mil for Howard and 13mil for Papelbon, sad, I know. 5 players taking up 107mil, ugh.
 
Greinke to the Angels for #1 prospect Segura and a pair of AA guys. Fairly inexpensive for a guy who's struck out 123 in 122 innings.
 
[quote name='JJSP']Greinke to the Angels for #1 prospect Segura and a pair of AA guys. Fairly inexpensive for a guy who's struck out 123 in 122 innings.[/QUOTE]

I think there are still concerns about how Greinke is gonna handle pressure in a bigger market.
 
[quote name='bigdaddybruce44']I think there are still concerns about how Greinke is gonna handle pressure in a bigger market.[/QUOTE]

No compensation picks too which brings the price down.
 
Giants got Marco Scutaro from the Rockies for Charlie Culberson(Who looked completely overmatched when he was called up earlier this year). I'm ok with this trade because it means I don't have to watch Burriss play anymore.
 
[quote name='bigdaddybruce44']I think there are still concerns about how Greinke is gonna handle pressure in a bigger market.[/QUOTE]

I'm absolutely thrilled about getting Greinke... Anaheim is only a quasi-big market... much different feel in Orange County than in LA.

I'm sure he'll be fine... Weaver, Greinke, Wilson, and Haren is a good starting 4... #5 is still a bit of an issue...
 
I think Greinke's going to be less expected to come in and be the "ace" than he is to come in and contribute to the rotation. On a staff including Weaver and Wilson, there's a lot less pressure than playing in KC or Milwaukee where you're quite literally the face of the pitching staff.
 
The media out here in Orange County isn't bad. I think he'll be fine, and apparently, he likes the club, so there's a good chance he'll sign with them in the off season. I'm just happy that the team is really committed to winning. They need to win at least one world series for all these contracts to be worth it, and Pujols only has a couple more years where he'll be a top tier player, so they realize they're best chance is to win now.
 
You guys are forgetting, though, that this isn't just some example of a guy who has only played on smaller market teams and doesn't have a lot of playoff experience (and the little he does have is far from pretty). He has a documented history of depression and social anxiety disorder. That has definitely scared a lot of teams off. It's the kind of thing that can totally derail a career. And it already nearly did once in his life. I think a lot of teams don't wanna take the chance it can happen again.
 
Hope Ben Sheets can keep it up for the Braves.

In his first 3 starts he's 3-0 with only one earned run allowed in 18 innings. 15 strikeouts and 5 walks.

Doing a great job of filling the gap left with Beachy's injury.
 
[quote name='bigdaddybruce44']You guys are forgetting, though, that this isn't just some example of a guy who has only played on smaller market teams and doesn't have a lot of playoff experience (and the little he does have is far from pretty). He has a documented history of depression and social anxiety disorder. That has definitely scared a lot of teams off. It's the kind of thing that can totally derail a career. And it already nearly did once in his life. I think a lot of teams don't wanna take the chance it can happen again.[/QUOTE]

I'm not very concerned about his mental health issues. Often, there is a stigma placed on this by people who have little understanding of the conditions. However, anxiety and depression do not occur in a vacuum. Similarly, they do not occur because some neurotransmitter randomly decides to get out of balance.

His main issues happened a lifetime ago when he was 22. I sure as hell remember having my ups and downs around that time in life, while on a much less public scale transitioning from various spheres of responsibility and interaction with others. The key point is that it really appears that he has worked things out and has developed adaptive coping strategies for life, which, if anything, I would expect to make him more dependable and successful than someone who has never gone through such a phase.
 
In the years since Greinke sat out for depression, he's only set the Royals record for strikeouts (15), been an All Star in KC while winning a Cy Young, and helped lead the Brewers to a ring. Not too shabby.
 
[quote name='whataboutbob?']5 hrs left until trading deadline....anybody expecting any more big moves (or any move at all for my Red Sox)??[/QUOTE]

They should dump guys if they were smart. They'd love to unload Beckett but no one is touching that contract.
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']Pretty happy in getting Pence, 'specially with what the Giants gave up for him.[/QUOTE]

I didn't like this deal, I guess Joseph will help us in a few years when Ruiz might not be able to be a top catcher anymore but take back Schierholtz, I don't know what the hell we're going to do with that guy. And the pitcher we got doesn't seem that hot either. We gave up a lot for Pence and got crap in return, ugh. At least the Victorino deal seems solid.
 
[quote name='tcrash247']I didn't like this deal, I guess Joseph will help us in a few years when Ruiz might not be able to be a top catcher anymore but take back Schierholtz, I don't know what the hell we're going to do with that guy. And the pitcher we got doesn't seem that hot either. We gave up a lot for Pence and got crap in return, ugh. At least the Victorino deal seems solid.[/QUOTE]


Yeah, Phillies gave up some money too (I think 500k), I'm surprised at how "cheap" the Giants got him when the Phillies gave up some really, really good prospects for him last season.
 
Mike Olt got a hit in his first at bat.

Hopefully the Rangers can build on last nights come back win and start to get their offense back on track.
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']Pretty happy in getting Pence, 'specially with what the Giants gave up for him.[/QUOTE]

Wonder what Giants are going to do with him in the offseason. He is scheduled to make $14+ in his last year of arbitration and he is not a top tier OF. I can see trade to whatever team misses out on Hamilton/Melky/Swisher

In my opinion, Dempster made a huge mistake accepting a trade to Texas. Going from the weakest division in the MLB to that ridiculous hitters stadium will hurt his free agency by a lot.
 
[quote name='HornyPony']Wonder what Giants are going to do with him in the offseason. He is scheduled to make $14+ in his last year of arbitration and he is not a top tier OF. I can see trade to whatever team misses out on Hamilton/Melky/Swisher

In my opinion, Dempster made a huge mistake accepting a trade to Texas. Going from the weakest division in the MLB to that ridiculous hitters stadium will hurt his free agency by a lot.[/QUOTE]

Sabean came out after they got him and said that the Giants have the money to sign both Pence and Cabrera to an extension. With no outfield prospects close to the majors, they'll end up keeping him, 'specially after all the fan rage that came from the Beltran rental.
 
I dunno, Dempster is still a solid pitcher. He's never pitched in this stadium, and there is certainly a learning curve to pitching here, just ask Cliff Lee. He also got shelled here in his first start. Not all his starts will be that bad. And to be quite fair to him, he was facing a good team, and historically, Pujols has owned him up and down.

The bottom line is that he wants to win, and to do that, he accepted a trade to a division leader from a team rotting away in a cellar.
 
Dempster isn't that bad, but he'll be a 4.00 ERA pitcher with the downside of a potential 4.50 ERA in that ballpark. That has value, but he won't be a gamechanger.

Pence is pretty solid. He's had a down year this season, but if he plays like he has over the last 4 years he'll be worth $14 mil. As an aside, he's got pretty good power, if he ever added more loft to his swing he could hit 30 HR fairly easily.
 
[quote name='Beatofficer']Sabean came out after they got him and said that the Giants have the money to sign both Pence and Cabrera to an extension.[/QUOTE]

GMs like to talk. Melky will want a 5-6 year deal. Sabean couldn't give Beltran a 2 year deal, the guy who is having one of his best seasons so far.


[quote name='GhostShark']I dunno, Dempster is still a solid pitcher. He's never pitched in this stadium, and there is certainly a learning curve to pitching here, just ask Cliff Lee.[/QUOTE]

Lee and Dempster are very diferent pitchers. Lee had an amazing breakout year before being traded. Dempster was always an innings eater type of a starter, never a number 1 or 2. That usually translates to a back end of the rotation starter in the AL.



[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Dempster isn't that bad, but he'll be a 4.00 ERA pitcher with the downside of a potential 4.50 ERA in that ballpark. That has value, but he won't be a gamechanger.

Pence is pretty solid. He's had a down year this season, but if he plays like he has over the last 4 years he'll be worth $14 mil. As an aside, he's got pretty good power, if he ever added more loft to his swing he could hit 30 HR fairly easily.[/QUOTE]


Dempster's ERA in Wrigley would be much lower. He is a good pitcher, but he hurt his free agent stock. Sure, if Pence manages to develop 30 HR power he will be worth $14 mill but as if now, I say no.
 
[quote name='HornyPony']GMs like to talk. Melky will want a 5-6 year deal. Sabean couldn't give Beltran a 2 year deal, the guy who is having one of his best seasons so far. [/QUOTE]


Beltran didn't want to be in SF nor stay there. They offered him a 2 year deal but he took the Cardinals offer instead. I don't blame Sabean for not wanting to go beyond 2 years because pretty much every contract he's given to an aging player has crash and burned in recent memory.
 
[quote name='HornyPony']Dempster's ERA in Wrigley would be much lower. He is a good pitcher, but he hurt his free agent stock. Sure, if Pence manages to develop 30 HR power he will be worth $14 mill but as if now, I say no.[/QUOTE]

Pence's worth, based on WAR, per season (in millions):

2007: $16
2008: $15.6
2009: $18.2
2010: $12.9
2011: $21.1

He's worth $14 million. He won't be a bargain at that price, but he wouldn't be overpaid. Since he's never had more than 25 HR or 97 RBI, he might not even get $14 mil in arbitration.
 
The Rangers weren't looking for a top-of-the-line starter in Dempster. They need an innings eater to replace Colby Lewis (the Rangers primary innings eater over the past two season), and that is something they got.
 
[quote name='Feeding the Abscess']Pence's worth, based on WAR, per season (in millions):

2007: $16
2008: $15.6
2009: $18.2
2010: $12.9
2011: $21.1

He's worth $14 million. He won't be a bargain at that price, but he wouldn't be overpaid. Since he's never had more than 25 HR or 97 RBI, he might not even get $14 mil in arbitration.[/QUOTE]


He's had 4 straight years of 20+ HR an solid BA AVG and is on pace to do it again this year. Judges love that longetivity. He is a solid player but not 14 mill worthy in my opinion. Knowing Sabean who did not persue Bay, Holiday, Beltran when they were available, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get traded.

fWAR is very flawed for figuring out the value of players in terms of salary.

Brett Gardner

2010: $24.6
2011: $23.1

Was Gardner really twice as valuable as Pence in 2010?
 
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