[quote name='HeadRusch']Sonys only hope for making the BD the standard is if DVD goes away. The chances of that happening in the next 3-5 years are..............remote would be an understatement of the highest order.[/quote]
Exactly. DVD will never be "replaced" for the same reasons CD's weren't/won't be.
But see, it can't just stop there....Sony then needs for everyone who has built up a DVD library to now begin to convert that DVD library to BluRay. What are the odds that that will happen? Essentially zero when you are talking about mom and pops.
I disagree with that. Most people are happy just buying only new movies in the new format.
The problem is, less and less people build DVD libraries these days. The biggest buyers of movies now are parents buying kid movies to babysit their brats, and kids don't care about HD.
Plus now with Netflix and Blockbuster firmly established in the US zeitgeist, renting is a MUCh more plausable option than re-buying, which dooms Sonys format.
It doesn't doom the format. Sony makes a lot of money off selling stuff to Blockbuster and Netflix etc.
Sky high pricing doesn't help...most people wont buy a DVD until it hits $9.99 or less. You think these folks are going to pony up $23 to $35 bucks for a BD? Shinizzit no they wont.
You are right. However Blu Ray titles will continue to drop into that range. They have to, if studios/Sony want them to pick up steam.
So, Sony has one huge uphill battle. They'll eventually reach the top since its likely no new competing formats will take the place of blu ray discs, but a long, gradual climb will cripple the companies hopes because it gives time for that dreaded word...Digital Distribution...to perfect itself and change the worlds thinking on "building up an army of skinny plastic discs".
Digital distribution has already changed my habits. I was renting 1 bluray/dvd a night with my blockbuster pass until Netflix on NXE came out. Sure, it's not as high quality to the eye of scrutiny but it's a hell of a lot cheaper and more convenient.
[quote name='HowStern']
digital distribution will fail terribly in the U.S. because of the snail speed internet. look at the U.S. internet speed compared to the UK or Japan or China.[/quote]
Wrong. Not only is it not failing, it's already picking up momentum. Fiber lines are everywhere now and very soon it's just a matter of replacing routers and flipping switches to make most peoples broadband 10-20x faster.
Not to mention if you're HDD dies, everything you own is gone.
Just like if your Ipod dies or Xbox 360 HDD dies, everything you own is gone?
You do know how DRM works, right? You buy the right to the media, not a one time download.
[quote name='Thomas96']Blu Ray may become the standard one day, but its going to take time and more BIG movies like Batman The Dark Knight. 25% of Batman TDK sales were on blu Ray (600,000) when the movie costs around 24.99 - 29.99, I figure once Blu Ray can come down in price, then the market may accept them as the new standard. The new blu rays do have a digital copy, so there's an incentive for owning the hard copy.[/QUOTE]
The larger masses will never adopt Blu-Ray until the words "Blu-Ray" is simply listed as another feature on the box of the $75 DVD player they just got at Wal Mart, right along with features like "DivX", "MP3", and "Progressive Scan".
[quote name='HeadRusch']Uh, there wasn't room for VHS and DVD was there...? There wont be room for DVD and BD.[/quote]
One word: Laserdisc
The only thing holding back Digital Distribution is really availability of content, and changing the minds of people who want to "own shit". In an economic recession, people realize that buying BD's or even DVD's is stupid....just rent it for 4 bucks. Unless you're buying some film that your kids are going to wear out in 6 months cuz they watch it every 3 days...why do you need the disc? I like having discs, but if I knew that I could, say, watch Forbidden Planet or Battlestar Galactica reruns at the drop of a hat by going online? Why would I buy a disc for $20 if the rentals were $2 bucks a viewing?
You bring up some great points. The people savvy enough to know what Blu-Ray is and what it's advantages are, are also the same people already bittorenting most of what they watch.
The leap to true digital distribution that's easy, cheap, fast, and convenient, is very small. And when it happens, there will be little reason for those savvy folks to buy Blu-Ray discs.
Now, to bring this all back to the OP, trojan horse convergent devices are the last piece of the digital distribution equation. Who is doing what to be ready for this?
The longer it takes for BD to ramp up, the less chance it has to succeed overall. The economy is going to hurt it badly....when rentals are an option over buying.
Not only that, but if Blu Ray can't supplant at least half of DVD sales by end of next year, I wager it's destined to be the next Laserdisc.