[quote name='GizmoGC']But just because they have a 360 does not mean they have the HD DVD add-on.[/QUOTE]
Just because people own a PS3, doesn't mean they own a HDTV and are ready to drop an extra $10-$15 per movie to enjoy it in a higher resolution.
[quote name='GizmoGC']My thoughts, and always will be, is until games come out for the PS3 that people will continue to buy into Blu-Ray because they need to somehow rationalize the $500-$600 they spent on it.[/QUOTE]
Very possible. But, when more games come out, PS3 sales will increase and will increase the amount of BD hardware even more. Even those that don't buy a single movie are pushing the hardware by owning hardware and buying BD software (games).
[quote name='GizmoGC']Once you start seeing games, on a weekly basis, Blu-Ray sales will die down (and EB/GS will gets tons of used copies in).[/QUOTE]
Disagree. Some will, some won't. But you forget that hardware will continue to increase. More PS3 games most likely means more PS3 hardware out there, which equates to more potential customers. And, keep in mind that there are plenty of PS3 owners who have yet to buy a single BD movie. Those may make the jump later on when the cost of movies and HDTVs decrease. So, I find the above statement very hard to believe.
Just like what happened with UMD Movie sales and the PSP launch. Once games arrived, the UMD Movie sales died off.
Difference is, UMD was a terrible format. It offered less than the current format (DVD), was not that much cheaper, and was limited in where it could be played (only was available to PSP owners). BD, on the other hand, offeres more than DVD, is supported by more hardware manufacturers than just Sony.
Now, I don't doubt a certain amount of people will continue to buy into Blu-Ray because this thread obviously shows some people will buy both games AND movies, but I do believe you will a big drop in the amount of catalog and non 'huge' releases.
On an individual basis, I can see you being right in some cases. But, hardware sales will not remain the same. Sales are still going (albeit slowly), and if games pick up and price decreases, I can see hardware moving even faster. Certain individuals, as you said, may show a decrease in BD purchases, but there will be many more individuals to potentially sell to. So, overall, sales will continue to climb.
I can understand Transformers and such selling really well even IF there are tons of PS3 games coming out, but smaller titles will suffer. Why spend $20-$30 on a 2 Blu-Ray movies when I can get a game instead? Again, MY opinion, but history has already proven it with UMD (yes, I know they had no competition and it could ONLY be played on the PSP, but the basis is still the same)
Again, your argument completely negates the fact that there will be many more potential customers to sell to.