- LOCK - Format War - HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray - LOCK -

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[quote name='propeller_head']if its not a real number than how can i type it on my keyboard? 60% is 10% more than 50%. that same 10% is subtracted from HD DVDs 50%. youre right that percentages arent total units sold; but theyre designed to show the distribution of sales. think of it like a pie graph, 60% is 50% encroached +10%. 10% extra on the pie graph, a 10% growth in balance. whereas HD DVD gives up the SAME 10%.[/quote]
I can see there's no point in debating this with you. If you think a 10% improvement in HD DVD sales will make them even with Blu-Ray sales, you have no basis in reality.

[quote name='propeller_head']actually the format war has increased the pace at which both formats are being adopted. so that argument is wrong. [/quote] Is that why only a third as many players and one sixth as many movies have sold in the first year and a half of the formats' existence compared to the first eighteen months of DVD? Despite players being cheaper and titles being more plentiful now than they were then, and players being backward compatible with the existing standard to boot? Good to know. Silly me thought that this pathetic adoption rate had something to do with people wanting to wait so as to avoid the risk of buying into the losing format.

If there was only one format from the beginning, it obviously would be dead by now because nobody would have bought it.....

BTW, nice job of turning an ardent HD DVD supporter (That'd be me, 3 players and 80 movies) against you. :)
 
[quote name='geko29']
Is that why only a third as many players and one sixth as many movies have sold in the first year and a half of the formats' existence compared to the first eighteen months of DVD? Despite players being cheaper and titles being more plentiful now than they were then, and players being backward compatible with the existing standard to boot? Good to know. Silly me thought that this pathetic adoption rate had something to do with people wanting to wait so as to avoid the risk of buying into the losing format.

If there was only one format from the beginning, it obviously would be dead by now because nobody would have bought it.....

BTW, nice job of turning an ardent HD DVD supporter (That'd be me, 3 players and 80 movies) against you. :)[/quote]

I think another part into the slower adoption is the fact that the jump between DVD and VHS is much much greater than DVD to Hi-Def. However, I still believe that the format war and people being afraid of the format they invest in is a bigger part in it.

And Ouch on the 2nd part.
 
[quote name='H.Cornerstone']I think another part into the slower adoption is the fact that the jump between DVD and VHS is much much greater than DVD to Hi-Def. However, I still believe that the format war and people being afraid of the format they invest in is a bigger part in it. [/QUOTE]

That and DVD can be viewed on all TVs, whereas HD/BD is limited to HDTVs.
 
Wrong, HD/BD can be viewed on normal TVs, just use the right connector. The difference is you won't notice much, if any, quality difference unless you have an HDTV.
 
[quote name='Vanigan']Wrong, HD/BD can be viewed on normal TVs, just use the right connector. The difference is you won't notice much, if any, quality difference unless you have an HDTV.[/quote]
I think that's what he meant, there is no difference between DVD and Hi-Def DVD's on a normal TV, so therefore you are really only watching a "Hi def DVD" on a HDTV. So if you have a SDTV, there really is no point into buying a Blu-ray or HD-DVD player.
 
[quote name='geko29']I can see there's no point in debating this with you. If you think a 10% improvement in HD DVD sales will make them even with Blu-Ray sales, you have no basis in reality.

Is that why only a third as many players and one sixth as many movies have sold in the first year and a half of the formats' existence compared to the first eighteen months of DVD? Despite players being cheaper and titles being more plentiful now than they were then, and players being backward compatible with the existing standard to boot? Good to know. Silly me thought that this pathetic adoption rate had something to do with people wanting to wait so as to avoid the risk of buying into the losing format.

If there was only one format from the beginning, it obviously would be dead by now because nobody would have bought it.....

BTW, nice job of turning an ardent HD DVD supporter (That'd be me, 3 players and 80 movies) against you. :)[/quote] i suppose thats why according to the CEA there were twice as many players sold in the last 6 months of the third year than in the first 2 for DVD? or the fact that player prices have been dropping at a rate double that of dvd during its introduction. that same tipping point i was talking about before. there were 315k DVD players sold in 97 (Mar-Dec), and 1.08 mil in '98. HD DVD by itself accounts for more than 1/2 of that number, BD doubles it in number of players.
 
[quote name='H.Cornerstone']I think that's what he meant, there is no difference between DVD and Hi-Def DVD's on a normal TV, so therefore you are really only watching a "Hi def DVD" on a HDTV. So if you have a SDTV, there really is no point into buying a Blu-ray or HD-DVD player.[/quote]And that's the exact reason that neither Blu-Ray nor HD DVD have any real hope of being the "next DVD" format anytime soon. I daresay that high-def formats will be fairly niche for a long time now, regardless of the winner of the war. The tech is all too pricey at the moment, but with as fast as things are falling in price, that may not last for long. But, it still requires an active upgrade of a piece of already-owned hardware in the house as opposed to just buying a new player and the movies on a different format.
 
[quote name='daroga']And that's the exact reason that neither Blu-Ray nor HD DVD have any real hope of being the "next DVD" format anytime soon. I daresay that high-def formats will be fairly niche for a long time now, regardless of the winner of the war. The tech is all too pricey at the moment, but with as fast as things are falling in price, that may not last for long. But, it still requires an active upgrade of a piece of already-owned hardware in the house as opposed to just buying a new player and the movies on a different format.[/quote]

I disagree with this idea that neither will win. When you look at the ads, it's all hdtvs now, and they're relatively cheap. You can get a decent hd tv for under $500. Also unlike SACD/DVDA (which seems to be what everyone has in mind) everyone sees the difference between hdtv and regular, and you see it in the store. A store could never really show you how an SACD would sound better than a regular CD because you would need to stand in the middle of 5 or more speakers and eliminate background noise.

And lets be honest, the TV is probably the most important piece of technology in the house to many people, so it's something worth upgrading.
 
[quote name='happy']I disagree with this idea that neither will win. When you look at the ads, it's all hdtvs now, and they're relatively cheap. You can get a decent hd tv for under $500. Also unlike SACD/DVDA (which seems to be what everyone has in mind) everyone sees the difference between hdtv and regular, and you see it in the store. A store could never really show you how an SACD would sound better than a regular CD because you would need to stand in the middle of 5 or more speakers and eliminate background noise.

And lets be honest, the TV is probably the most important piece of technology in the house to many people, so it's something worth upgrading.[/quote]Very true, and not something I ever argued against. But the point is that for Joe Public who has a TV that works just fine, he has to discard that working set to get a new one capable of truly displaying HD content. If his TV breaks then sure, he's very likely going to get an HD compatible set, but HD formats like the benefit DVD had (has) that anyone with any TV can hook up a DVD player a see a marked difference over VHS without having to discard their current head unit.

HD penetration will just get greater, but that's still going to take some time. And until that market comes into being, you're not going to see DVD threatened as the dominant video disc format.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']i suppose thats why according to the CEA there were twice as many players sold in the last 6 months of the third year than in the first 2 for DVD?[/quote] And that makes any difference whatsoever when comparing the first eighteen months of each format's existence why? We KNOW sales will increase in later years as adoption goes up. No one's debating that (except you, apparently). Sales at the three year point for DVD has absolutely zilch to do with sales at the 18-month point for HiDef.

[quote name='propeller_head']or the fact that player prices have been dropping at a rate double that of dvd during its introduction.[/quote] Way to try to steal my point. Player prices started lower this time AND are dropping faster, and yet units haven't been moving as quickly.

[quote name='propeller_head'] that same tipping point i was talking about before. there were 315k DVD players sold in 97 (Mar-Dec), and 1.08 mil in '98. HD DVD by itself accounts for more than 1/2 of that number, BD doubles it in number of players.[/quote] There are somewhere in the neighborhood of 200k HD DVD players, and 100k Blu-Rays. If you include the 360 addon (even though PC DVD drives weren't included in the CEA "player" numbers because they're not a complete player), this brings the total to almost 500k. Only if you include EVERY SINGLE PS3 (the VAST majority of which are not used to play Blu-Ray movies, and as such are irrelevant) does current total sales surpass DVD at the same point post-launch.

If you instead include only the ~400k that are "Blu-Ray players" to attempt to even out the field (despite the fact that this still ignores PC DVD drives, which early on could only be used to play movies), then sales are identical. Kinda sad given that prices are lower, there are far better promotions than DVD had, players are pratically "given away" with gaming systems, both are backward compatible with the previous standard, movies are more prevalent, and many people were forced to buy two players to watch all the available content whereas one DVD player got the job done back in 97-98.

The HD formats currently have many overwhelming marketplace advantages DVD did not have, plus there are 40 million more potential customers now as then, and inflation has turned DVD's launch price of $600 into more like $770. There is no reason for high def player sales (especially the standalones) to be as stagnat as they are save a lack of consumer interest. Much of this is brought on by the fact that people don't want to get stuck with the next Beta.

And don't think I didn't notice you ignored the most important part of my post--that SOFTWARE sales of the new formats are BEYOND pathetic. And software is the only thing that matters. Hardware is a means to an end. And that end is happening at an absolute rate ONE SIXTH that of DVD in its first eighteen months. Despite all the advantages outlined above, key among them being drastically lower player cost and far wider availability of titles. If you want to claim that every PS3 counts and there are in fact 3x the number of players out there, you then have to explain why HiDef attach rates are ONE EIGHTEENTH of what they were for DVD. Even if you all of a sudden decide you like my comparison of standalone vs. standalone sales, this number rises to a still pathetic one half of DVD.
 
Is anyone else just waiting for a combo player like me ? If I got a combo player you could call me a fanboy of each format.

Give me a standalone combo player for 300 bucks and I'm in. Hell I'll even re-buy some of my movies.
 
[quote name='KingDox']Is anyone else just waiting for a combo player like me ? If I got a combo player you could call me a fanboy of each format.

Give me a standalone combo player for 300 bucks and I'm in. Hell I'll even re-buy some of my movies.[/quote]

If the combo players became cheaper than just buying a PS3 and HD-1 seperatly and didn't suck at playing each format, then SURE! :D
 
[quote name='geko29']And that makes any difference whatsoever when comparing the first eighteen months of each format's existence why? We KNOW sales will increase in later years as adoption goes up. No one's debating that (except you, apparently). Sales at the three year point for DVD has absolutely zilch to do with sales at the 18-month point for HiDef.[/quote] what it does is illustrate how slowly DVD was adopted, it also illustrates that although HD formats are growing at a faster historical pace; theyre still JUST a literal percent of what its final share is. &, now how & where did i debate lower prices = faster adoption exactly? thats the polar opposite of what i said. again, if you didnt catch it the first time, it illustrates 2 relevant things.

Way to try to steal my point. Player prices started lower this time AND are dropping faster, and yet units haven't been moving as quickly.
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actually they have been moving faster, as i pointed out before. and they started at the same price; toshiba had the cheapest player then too (SD2006 $499 NOT $599).

There are somewhere in the neighborhood of 200k HD DVD players, and 100k Blu-Rays. If you include the 360 addon (even though PC DVD drives weren't included in the CEA "player" numbers because they're not a complete player), this brings the total to almost 500k. Only if you include EVERY SINGLE PS3 (the VAST majority of which are not used to play Blu-Ray movies, and as such are irrelevant) does current total sales surpass DVD at the same point post-launch.

If you instead include only the ~400k that are "Blu-Ray players" to attempt to even out the field (despite the fact that this still ignores PC DVD drives, which early on could only be used to play movies), then sales are identical. Kinda sad given that prices are lower, there are far better promotions than DVD had, players are pratically "given away" with gaming systems, both are backward compatible with the previous standard, movies are more prevalent, and many people were forced to buy two players to watch all the available content whereas one DVD player got the job done back in 97-98.
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WRONG, toshibas conservative estimate is 1 million HD DVD drives this year (i say conservative because they lowered it from 1.8 to be cautious), now MS has said on record that their 360 HD DVD add on drive was selling roughly 1:1 w/ toshiba's SAPs (and officially hit the 100k mark the very first week of january). since theres no exact data on that, thats the best estimate there is atm. there has also been a large spike in sales after the $20 price drop
http://kotaku.com/gaming/fighting-for-life/xbox-360-hd-dvd-sales-jump-1000-285279.php


stand alone BD players havent been as popular as HD, but not very far; in addition there are an estimated 4 million ps3s out of sonys factories. tell me exactly, how does that compare w/ CEA's DVD player sales numbers? ok, so only 40% know that it has BD, and only 20% use it more than a 1/10th of the time. estimate at least 50% more than that if theres another holiday price drop in the last 6 months. right there is at the very least double the number of players DVD historically sold by year end if conditions maintain.

& your PC DVD drive argument is ridiculous. most of us were around & remember when DVD was hot & new (hell, i even remember when CD 2x was bleeding edge). i used to go to computer shows before aol existed, that's not even a demographic that would effect the standard deviation. if you asked some1 about building a HTPC back then you'd be met w/ a blank stare.

oh and the bit about getting free movies, you see how that would effect disc sales? in addition to a ton of other things ill go over in a sec.

The HD formats currently have many overwhelming marketplace advantages DVD did not have, plus there are 40 million more potential customers now as then, and inflation has turned DVD's launch price of $600 into more like $770. There is no reason for high def player sales (especially the standalones) to be as stagnat as they are save a lack of consumer interest. Much of this is brought on by the fact that people don't want to get stuck with the next Beta.
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i think youre really underestimating the pace at which people have become accustomed to adopting technology. 5 years ago nobody would know what an iPod is, 10 years ago most people didnt even use the internet. the fast pace also makes formats more resilient faster if they can tough it out. theres a reason companies like Ricoh are spending millions developing single compact multi-format reading head assemblies.

like i said before, DVDs launch price was $499. i still remember the player at the entrance to suncoast. and the rest of your post is right, but it only goes to back my point, that they are in fact selling fast than DVD historically did.

And don't think I didn't notice you ignored the most important part of my post--that SOFTWARE sales of the new formats are BEYOND pathetic. And software is the only thing that matters. Hardware is a means to an end. And that end is happening at an absolute rate ONE SIXTH that of DVD in its first eighteen months. Despite all the advantages outlined above, key among them being drastically lower player cost and far wider availability of titles. If you want to claim that every PS3 counts and there are in fact 3x the number of players out there, you then have to explain why HiDef attach rates are ONE EIGHTEENTH of what they were for DVD. Even if you all of a sudden decide you like my comparison of standalone vs. standalone sales, this number rises to a still pathetic one half of DVD.
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re: disc sales, theyve been in tune w/ disc releases. because according to the CEA, if you want to get into disc sales; in '97 there were 5.5 million discs sold and in the 1st 1/2 of '98 there were 7.3 million sales. you want to know how many there were in '99?, 128.6 million. lets compare HD DVD & BD sales; 800k & 1.6 mil. so 2.4 mil total.
less yes, but you seem to be overlooking one HUGE factor, when DVD came out people didnt HAVE to buy a new TV to take advantage of the better picture. DVD also offered many features in addition to better picture; like the ability skip ahead & not wear out like magnetic tapes. youre also not taking into consideration that back in '97 people were just coming off having used VHS for more than a decade after peoples primary pastime besides TV was tapes. now, there are distractions from many other time wasting pastimes (txt msgn, video games, the internet {email, chatting, forums, youtube, web 2.0, etc..) a virtual halcyon of instant gratification. we live in an age where the car gives the driver directions. also, if youre saying that people are waiting to purchase because they dont want to be stuck w/ a beta, wouldnt that then translate into they dont buy players (not they dont buy discs). players which have been selling at a faster pace than DVD did.

and lastly, if youre looking for a scapegoat to blame for this horrible war you have to weather; look to sony. because, unlike w/ DVD when they had the inferior format w/ MMCD and toshiba, matsushita, & hitachi in the interests of peace merged technologies; they modified it enough (by moving the written layer from the center to the bottom) to create a new format they could control profit from (according to the EU BD antitrust probe against them where theyre accused of using virtual strongarm tactics as anticompetitive [as ironic as that seems]). HD DVD was officially agreed upon by every1 (including sony) as the next format until then.
though, im still glad for it. im glad its dropping prices, increasing the hardware quality/functionality/features and keeping the studios on edge enough that neither tries to screw the customer.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']actually they have been moving faster, as i pointed out before. and they started at the same price; toshiba had the cheapest player then too (SD2006 $499 NOT $599).[/quote] Sorry, here's the product announcement. SD2006 was $599 at launch:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb278/is_199711/ai_n5783311

My Pioneer DV-500 which I bought on launch day was also $599.

[quote name='propeller_head']WRONG, toshibas conservative estimate is 1 million HD DVD drives this year (i say conservative because they lowered it from 1.8 to be cautious)[/quote] Now we're basing adoption rates on marketing projections rather than actual sales?

[quote name='propeller_head']now MS has said on record that their 360 HD DVD add on drive was selling roughly 1:1 w/ toshiba's SAPs (and officially hit the 100k mark the very first week of january). since theres no exact data on that, thats the best estimate there is atm. there has also been a large spike in sales after the $20 price drop[/quote] We know the addon hit 155k in May or June (I forget which, and I've been awake far too long to go look it up). Best estimates have it at somewhere in the 170s before the price drop, stabilizing around 200k afterwards. No official word from MS yet, but I guarantee we're in that ballpark.

It is ironic, however (in an OT type of way), that you posted the Kotaku article, which is another good example of the misuse of percentages. :)

[quote name='propeller_head'] stand alone BD players havent been as popular as HD, but not very far; in addition there are an estimated 4 million ps3s out of sonys factories. tell me exactly, how does that compare w/ CEA's DVD player sales numbers? ok, so only 40% know that it has BD, and only 20% use it more than a 1/10th of the time.[/quote] And now we're using total number of PS3s manufactured, as opposed to units actually sold in the US (1.8 Million)?

[quote name='propeller_head']estimate at least 50% more than that if theres another holiday price drop in the last 6 months. right there is at the very least double the number of players DVD historically sold by year end if conditions maintain.[/quote] Don't expect another price drop so soon. The 80GB will probably take the 60GBs place at $499 sans Motorstorm, but to the consumer a $499 80GB is the same thing as a $499 60GB.

[quote name='propeller_head'] & your PC DVD drive argument is ridiculous. most of us were around & remember when DVD was hot & new (hell, i even remember when CD 2x was bleeding edge). i used to go to computer shows before aol existed, that's not even a demographic that would effect the standard deviation. if you asked some1 about building a HTPC back then you'd be met w/ a blank stare.[/quote] Yeah I was around back then too. In fact I bought my first DVD player ON LAUNCH DAY. Several people I worked with weaseled their way into getting the company to buy them DVD drives, ostensibly so they could use the DVD version of Technet, but the real reason being so that they could watch movies when they got stuck with weekend shifts. Nobody's talking about the HTPC market, I was simply trying to get you to recognize that you're attempting to count every single possible source of HDM players (including PS3s produced and not sold, or sold in other countries), and ignoring everything except the standalones when DVD was launching.

As for CD 2x being bleeding edge? HAH! I had a Sony 1x CD-ROM drive in 1991, a $700 bundle that included an external caddy-loading drive, SCSI card, and about 6 CD-ROMs with a variety of titles. It was called the "Laser Library". I couldn't get a decent 2x drive for over 2 years after that (a Panasonic CR-503B that hooked up to a soundblaster card).

And I was a member of Compuserve for 5+ years before AOL came about as well (which I was a beta tester for starting with version 0.9), and a member of private dial-in BBSes for years before that. I was on the web (via compuserve) in 1993, via NCSA Mosaic at first, followed by Netscape Navigator 1.0. So your attempts to come off all hard and old-school with technology are lost on me. :)

[quote name='propeller_head']i think youre really underestimating the pace at which people have become accustomed to adopting technology. 5 years ago nobody would know what an iPod is, 10 years ago most people didnt even use the internet. the fast pace also makes formats more resilient faster if they can tough it out. theres a reason companies like Ricoh are spending millions developing single compact multi-format reading head assemblies.[/quote] So you're saying HDM should be outselling DVD by a MASSIVE margin by now, because consumer attitudes have changed. And yet they're not.

[quote name='propeller_head']like i said before, DVDs launch price was $499. i still remember the player at the entrance to suncoast. and the rest of your post is right, but it only goes to back my point, that they are in fact selling fast than DVD historically did.[/quote] Corrected above. :)

[quote name='propeller_head'] re: disc sales, theyve been in tune w/ disc releases. because according to the CEA, if you want to get into disc sales; in '97 there were 5.5 million discs sold and in the 1st 1/2 of '98 there were 7.3 million sales.[/quote] And to date we've sold a whopping THREE MILLION discs (just hit this mark last week with the release of 300) on both formats combined. As opposed to the THIRTEEN MILLION that DVD sold in 2 months ESS time.

If, as you state, hardware adoption rates are VASTLY outstripping DVDs, why are the software sales so pathetic? Above you seem to be claiming nearly 5 million players, yet not one disc has been sold for each player. As opposed to the measly 800k DVD players that had been sold up to this point from its launch selling over SIXTEEN discs per player. You can't blame that on freebies. Using more realistic player numbers of ~800k (counting 20% of PS3s and all addons and standalones), the attach rate is less than four.

You can't blame that on movie giveaways, because less than a quarter of all purchasers got free movies (since the HD DVD promo started in February and Blu-Ray's started a month ago), and the ones who did got only 5 (except for the ~20k who bought the addon since the price drop who got 6). So if 200k people got 5 movies each (ignoring the fact that the first few months of the HD DVD promotion was for 3 movies), this brings total discs in customer's hands to 4 million. 5 movies per player. That's a FAR cry from 16.

[quote name='propeller_head'] but you seem to be overlooking one HUGE factor, when DVD came out people didnt HAVE to buy a new TV to take advantage of the better picture.[/quote] No, I'm not overlooking it. You seem to be, when you claim that HDM adoption is rapidly outpacing DVD. Combine that with this statement and the dismal disc sales and here's the picture you're effecitvley painting:

People are buying new HiDef players at launch prices when there's a format war going on, despite the fact that they don't have an HDTV to watch movies on. Therefore, they buy few if any movies on it, opting instead to wait until they have an HDTV. Just paying a few hundred upfront for a potential paperweight with no upside over waiting for things to shake out.

[quote name='propeller_head']DVD also offered many features in addition to better picture; like the ability skip ahead & not wear out like magnetic tapes.[/quote] I was there, I remember.

[quote name='propeller_head']youre also not taking into consideration that back in '97 people were just coming off having used VHS for more than a decade after peoples primary pastime besides TV was tapes. now, there are distractions from many other time wasting pastimes (txt msgn, video games, the internet {email, chatting, forums, youtube, web 2.0, etc..) a virtual halcyon of instant gratification.[/quote] With the exception of youtube and the anomalyous web 2.0, all of those things were widespread in 1997. I can't tell you how many PCs I worked on in 1996-98 for average housewives, etc. Not ONE didn't have internet access. Granted, only a few friends of mine had cable modems (and they were still 1-way at that point), but dialup was close to saturation.

As for video games, well in 1997 I was on my fourth console, and I didn't even get into the game very early (started with the NES in 1985). One console in particular was already well on its way to being the first to ever sell 100 million. So the video game market was well-established as well and should have had just as big an effect on DVD as it does on HDM.

And if, as you say, all these "newfangled" internet-based entertainment options are hampering disc sales, how come they're not hampering box-office receipts or SD DVD sales?

[quote name='propeller_head']we live in an age where the car gives the driver directions. also, if youre saying that people are waiting to purchase because they dont want to be stuck w/ a beta, wouldnt that then translate into they dont buy players (not they dont buy discs). players which have been selling at a faster pace than DVD did.[/quote] They haven't been and they won't. In a few years when the PS3 and 360 addon become insignificant, you'll see that. Standalone player sales are sad compared to DVD, and media sales are worse.

[quote name='propeller_head'] and lastly, if youre looking for a scapegoat to blame for this horrible war you have to weather; look to sony. because, unlike w/ DVD when they had the inferior format w/ MMCD and toshiba, matsushita, & hitachi in the interests of peace merged technologies; they modified it enough (by moving the written layer from the center to the bottom) to create a new format they could control profit from (according to the EU BD antitrust probe against them where theyre accused of using virtual strongarm tactics as anticompetitive [as ironic as that seems]). HD DVD was officially agreed upon by every1 (including sony) as the next format until then.[/quote] I agree with you 100% here.

[quote name='propeller_head'] though, im still glad for it. im glad its dropping prices, increasing the hardware quality/functionality/features and keeping the studios on edge enough that neither tries to screw the customer.[/quote] To some extent I'm glad for it too. I like the cheaper prices it resulted in, which allowed me to purchase 3 players for what my first (and second, for that matter) DVD player cost. I also like that movies are MUCH more available this time around, as it seemed I had every single DVD released from every single studio for the first two years that DVD was around (I didn't, but I had most of them).

But at the same time, the format war tempered my enthusiasm. I bought a DVD player on DAY ONE, when it cost me two week's pay. If there was no format war, I would have bought an HDM player (either format) on day one as well. Instead, I waited until November to buy an HD DVD player, which cost me one day's pay, and I only bought in because it was at the point where if HD DVD did eventually fail, it was still cheaper to buy an HD DVD player then and a Blu-Ray player after the format war, than it was to buy a Blu-Ray player then. So in essence I lose nothing.

If the format war can deter the very earliest of early adopters (that'd be me), what do you think it will do (and has been doing) to the average consumer?
 
Very interesting happenings between prop and geko.
Very interesting.'

I was starting to wonder why a smart guy like geko supported HD DVD in the first place, but I see now it's because it means little to him if HD DVD were to die out.
 
[quote name='dallow']I was starting to wonder why a smart guy like geko supported HD DVD in the first place, but I see now it's because it means little to him if HD DVD were to die out.[/quote] Not exactly. When I bought, HD DVD was, and still is, the most attractive, for a variety of reasons. More available titles to suit my taste, no region coding, no BD+, higher mandatory specs, etc...

Look at it from a totally disconnected perspective. You've got two formats, both with advantages and disadvantages. It's far too early to have a clear leader. It is somewhat likely that one format will fail. One costs $500 and the other $1000. The $500 format goes on closeout for $300 because a new model is ready for release. It's a gamble either way, so for each side if you make the "wrong" decision, here are the worst possible results, assuming you always purchase the cheapest available player:

1) You buy the $1000 player and it fails. You are forced to buy the other format for $150. You've spent $1150 on hardware.

2) You buy the $300 player and it fails. You are forced to buy the other format for $200. You've spent $500 on hardware (the launch price of format A).

So assuming you have no preference, Option 2 is far less expensive and achieves the same result. In fact it still costs half as much as chosing option 1 and being "right". If you DO have a preference for format A, as I did, the decision is made even easier.

If Blu-Ray wins, or if both formats stick around, I will buy the first high-quality combo player (equivalent performance to the HD-XA2 and BDP-1200) that is at least BD-Video 1.1 (preferably Live 2.0, but I'm not holding my breath for one of those in the next year) and costs under $600. If HD DVD wins, I'm set. Either way I'm ahead of people who bought Blu-Ray when I bought HD DVD.

I think we'll know for fairly certain by Feb 1, 2008 what the "result" of the format war will be. It's looking more and more like a 2-format generation to me, but could still go either way. Either way I'm happy enjoying my movies now, and there are more available on my chosen format than I can afford to buy. If I chose "wrong" I'm out a few hundred bucks on hardware, which I'll consider an investment in being able to enjoy HiDef movies for the past year.
 
Nice little write up. Thanks geko.

I didn't pay any attention to the format war when it started.
I agree that HD DVD was much more attractive at first than it is now.
 
geko, nice write up indeed... and that is why i support HD DVD too :)
the cheaper way out to getting HD and all the features
i love my player and the quality is amazing...

i really don't think they will pull one or the other player off the market right away... some people will still want what every is left in the inventory... and the movies being sold will still be on both formats for another couple of years... less and less support as the years go by...
unless both formats stays...




---off topic---
just think of minidisc player... its still around but hard to find and even harder to find a store that sells orginal music disc... but not impossible...

but i still use my md player every so often cause music doesn't skip as often as cds even with anti-skip on and is more portable... then again, there is the ipod or any of the other flash players
 
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.co...vd-format-war/

"Based on conversations with multiple sources, we believe that Paramount is set to make the vast majority of its catalog available exclusively in the HD-DVD format (unclear whether that includes titles from its sister studio DreamWorks).

While Paramount (owned by Viacom) has some on-going commitments to release new release titles in Blu-ray, it is unclear how long that commitment lasts and how comprehensive the agreement is.

Up until now, Paramount and DreamWorks (live action) were releasing in both Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats. The reason for shifting catalog exclusivity to HD-DVD would appear to be substantial upfront dollars. We expect these dollars could have a meaningfully positive impact on Viacom's film profitability in 2H '07 and full-year 2008.

Separately, it appears that DreamWorks Animation is set to announced that 3-5 key titles (some catalog, some new releases, but details are still fuzzy) over the next several years will be made available exclusively in HD-DVD.

While we are somewhat surprised to see DWA favor a format given its smaller number of releases in a year similar to Paramount, we suspect the driving force of the decision was upfront payments to increase their support of HD-DVD. Given DWA's size, the financial impact on EPS in 2008-2010 could be a positive catalyst for the stock (we are still assuming that Shrek The Third is coming out in both formats in November 2007).

Prior to these revelations, we believe HD-DVD was essentially "dying a slow death," as Universal was the only studio exclusive to HD-DVD (and its box office was not strong enough this year to make a difference), far outweighed by the Blu-ray only studios (Sony, Fox, Disney, MGM, and Lionsgate.) Even though Sony's PS3 has been disappointing from a sales standpoint, Blu-ray DVD sales had begun to notably accelerate based on the content being made available. However, the Paramount/DWA moves alter the landscape meaningfully, as Paramount (Including DW/DWA titles) is the leading theatrical distributor year-to-date (enabling its catalog DVDs to "ride the coattails" of the success of successful theatrical films being released on DVD for the first time.)"
Click to expand...

And now for the OFFICIAL News...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070820...dvd_formats;_ylt=Avyiq1znBvA61M311YWV25ms0NUE
Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation SKG announced Monday that they will offer next-generation DVDs in the HD DVD format rather than Blu-ray, a move that further complicates the race between the competing technologies.


The move by the two studios will include the upcoming blockbuster "Shrek the Third" and all movies distributed by Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Nickelodeon Movies and MTV Films, as well as movies from DreamWorks Animation, which are distributed exclusively by Paramount Home Entertainment.

"Part of our vision is to aggressively extend our movies beyond the theater, and deliver the quality and features that appeal to our audience," said Brad Grey, chairman and chief executive of Paramount Pictures. "I believe HD DVD is not only the affordable high quality choice for consumers, but also the smart choice for Paramount."

The competition between Blu-ray and HD DVD has kept confused consumers from rushing to buy new DVD players until they can determine which format will dominate the market.

Studios and retailers have been choosing sides.

"Spider-Man 3" will only be available in the Blu-ray DVD format when it is released by Sony Pictures.

Likewise, people with Blu-ray players won't be able to enjoy the action-thriller "The Bourne Ultimatum," which Universal Pictures will release only in HD DVD.
Click to expand...

And it has begun! HD DVD is the first format to lure a significant Neutral to HD DVD exclusive (at least how the Yahoo article seems). Transformers....HD DVD only? Damn...

Edit: Apparently Paramount is now 100% exclusive. Damn. Guess I'll be watching Transformers in HD while alot of people will be watching the SD...Damn
 
[quote name='mykevermin']http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/08/20/ap4036000.html

Confirmed. Paramount (which includes Dreamworks) are HD DVD exclusive.[/QUOTE]

Nice. I'm glad the HD Forum is FINALLY doing something with their money. Its not like the BDA did not pay Fox and Disney money to release on on their format. Or the Target deal. Will this now sway a few people to get HD DVD players? Yes. Does this put to rest rumors that Universal will go neutral at CES 08? YES! HD DVD is here to stay for a few years to come atleast.
 
[quote name='dallow']But why?
This makes business sense?[/QUOTE]

Yes. More exclusive titles means more potential buyers of the format.
Unlike Blu-Ray, its a finished format with all the specs in line and no need to go out and buy a new player next year to enjoy it all. Congrats HD DVD for luring the first significant neutral player to exclusive. Now I will be enjoying Shrek and Transformers all the more. Next up, Fox?
 
[quote name='seanr1221']Lame. Exactly why I hate this "war"[/QUOTE]

It is what it is. Companies love money, and they'll go where it's offered. In this case, it's a rumors $150 million b/w Paramount and Dreamworks to go to the HD DVD side. And, face it, HD DVD knew they were hanging on by a string (only having one exclusive distribution company, Universal, was keeping them one contract w/ BDA away from HD DVD's redundancy and imminent demise). As a result, they had to engage in desperation tactics (this kind of money is a substantial risk). It will surely breathe some life into a dying format, so they had to do something, and it looks like they made a good decision.

Not for you or I, of course, but for themselves.
 
[quote name='GizmoGC'] Now I will be enjoying Shrek [/QUOTE]


Fail. So how does your anal region smell? I'm sure you get a few good whiffs with your head being crammed up your ass.
 
Thinking in the short term, what would I be missing other than Shrek and Transformers. (never seen either of those and didn't plan to).

I guess they don't want money other than the payola from the HD DVD camp.

I mean, they'd sell more BD discs, no question.
 
[quote name='dallow']Thinking in the short term, what would I be missing other than Shrek and Transformers. (never seen either of those and didn't plan to).

I guess they don't want money other than the payola from the HD DVD camp.

I mean, they'd sell more BD discs, no question.[/QUOTE]

$150 million > 20,000 BR discs being sold, for the moment.
 
[quote name='dallow']Thinking in the short term, what would I be missing other than Shrek and Transformers. (never seen either of those and didn't plan to).

I guess they don't want money other than the payola from the HD DVD camp.

I mean, they'd sell more BD discs, no question.[/QUOTE]

Godfather Trilogy/Indiana Jones/Spielberg titles?/American Beauty/Gladiator....many, many more.
 
[quote name='dpatel']Don't you have a BD player?[/QUOTE]

Yes, but knowing that they are HD DVD exclusive makes them just a little bit better
 
Its Official as of TODAY!!!!

PARAMOUNT AND DREAMWORKS ANIMATION EACH DECLARE EXCLUSIVE SUPPORT FOR HD DVD

Movies Distributed by Paramount Home Entertainment Including Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks Animation SKG, DreamWorks Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Nickelodeon Movies and MTV Films to be Released Exclusively in HD DVD

Exclusive Program To Begin with Release of “Blades of Glory,” Followed by “Transformers” and “Shrek the Third,” Films Representing More Than $1.5 Billion in Combined Worldwide Box Office.

Los Angeles, CA, August 20, 2007 – Paramount Pictures, a unit of Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA and VIA.B) and DreamWorks Animation SKG (NYSEWA), each announced today that they will exclusively support the next-generation HD DVD format on a worldwide basis. The exclusive HD DVD commitment will include all movies distributed by Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Nickelodeon Movies and MTV Films, as well as movies from DreamWorks Animation, which are distributed exclusively by Paramount Home Entertainment.

The companies each said that the decision to distribute exclusively in the HD DVD format resulted from an extensive evaluation of current market offerings, which confirmed the clear benefits of HD DVD, particularly its market-ready technology and lower manufacturing costs. Paramount Home Entertainment will launch its exclusive HD DVD program with the release of the blockbuster comedy hit “Blades of Glory” on August 28th and follow with two of the biggest grossing movies of the year “Transformers” and “Shrek the Third”. These three titles alone represent more than $1.5 billion in box office ticket sales worldwide.

“The combination of Paramount and DreamWorks Animation brings a critical mass of current box office hits to consumers with a line-up of live action and animated films that are perfect for HD DVD,” stated Brad Grey, Chairman and CEO of Paramount Pictures, which is currently the leading studio in domestic box office. “Part of our vision is to aggressively extend our movies beyond the theater, and deliver the quality and features that appeal to our audience. I believe HD DVD is not only the affordable high quality choice for consumers, but also the smart choice for Paramount.

“We decided to release “Shrek the Third” and other DreamWorks Animation titles exclusively on HD DVD because we believe it is the best format to bring high quality home entertainment to a key segment of our audience – families,” stated DreamWorks Animation CEO, Jeffrey Katzenberg. “We believe the combination of this year’s low- priced HD DVD players and the commitment to release a significant number of hit titles in the fall makes HD DVD the best way to view movies at home.”

With the rapid increase of HD TV screens in households, and audiences wanting to enjoy the total entertainment experience, HD DVD has emerged as the most affordable way for consumers to watch their movies in high definition. In addition to pristine quality, HD DVD also offers consumers the chance to personalize the movie-watching experience, to interact with their movies and even to connect with a community of other fans.

Paramount Home Entertainment will issue new releases day and date as well as catalog titles exclusively on HD DVD. Today’s announcement does not include films directed by Steven Spielberg as his films are not exclusive to either format.

About Paramount Pictures Corporation

Paramount Pictures Corporation (PPC), a global producer and distributor of filmed entertainment, is a unit of Viacom (NYSE: VIA, VIA.B), a leading content company with prominent and respected film, television and digital entertainment brands. The company’s labels include Paramount Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Paramount Classics, MTV Films, Nickelodeon Movies and DreamWorks Studios. PPC operations also include Paramount Digital Entertainment, Paramount Home Entertainment, Paramount Pictures International, Paramount Licensing Inc., Paramount Studios and Worldwide Television Distribution.

About DreamWorks Animation SKG

DreamWorks Animation is principally devoted to developing and producing computer generated, or CG, animated feature films. With world-class creative talent, a strong and experienced management team and advanced CG filmmaking technology and techniques, DreamWorks Animation makes high quality CG animated films meant for a broad movie-going audience. The Company has theatrically released a total of fourteen animated feature films, including Antz, Shrek, Shrek 2, Shark Tale, Madagascar, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Over the Hedge, Flushed Away, and Shrek the Third. DreamWorks Animation’s newest release, Bee Movie, opens in theaters November 2, 2007.
Click to expand...
 
[quote name='dallow']Ruh-roh!

Didn't Spielberg say he wanted his movies on BD?
Or something to that effect?[/QUOTE]

I'm more curious how Blades of Glory is HD DVD exclusive when it was announced for both formats 2 months ago...? I guess they never produced the Blu-Ray version which would make sense.
 
[quote name='dallow']Didn't Spielberg say he wanted his movies on BD?
Or something to that effect?[/quote] I don't believe he said anything of the sort. I think it boiled down to:

Sony wants to release Close Encounters on Blu-Ray
Sony gives cash to Spielberg
Spielberg records commentary for Blu-Ray release.

With penetration this small, I don't think he gives a rat's ass what format his movies get released on, and probably won't allow them to be released at all on either format without a "tribute" being involved. The required "tribute" for the Jurassic Park series being SUBSTATNIALLY higher than the one for Close Encounters.
 
[quote name='geko29']I don't believe he said anything of the sort. I think it boiled down to:

Sony wants to release Close Encounters on Blu-Ray
Sony gives cash to Spielberg
Spielberg records commentary for Blu-Ray release.

With penetration this small, I don't think he gives a rat's ass what format his movies get released on, and probably won't allow them to be released at all on either format without a "tribute" being involved. The required "tribute" for the Jurassic Park series being SUBSTATNIALLY higher than the one for Close Encounters.[/quote]Haha, well, they got their money's worth then.

I think the worst part of this 'deal', to me, is the thought of how wet Gizmo, sporadic, linkin, guyver and prop head's panties are getting over this.
 
[quote name='dallow']Haha, well, they got their money's worth then.

I think the worst part of this 'deal', to me, is the thought of how wet Gizmo, sporadic, linkin, guyver and prop head's panties are getting over this.[/QUOTE]

Pretty damn wet. Same as if the BDA bought Paramount as exclusive for you guys. Deal with it.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=412
Check that out to see who is really buying Blu-Ray movies...young PS3 owners.
 
If you find Blades of Glory on Blu-Ray....BUY IT. Some stores already have it apparently and its unknown if they will be shipped back or just sold until stock runs out. I'll be getting a few just incase...
 
[quote name='GizmoGC']Yes, but knowing that they are HD DVD exclusive makes them just a little bit better[/QUOTE]

b-b-b-but being biased is bad!
 
[quote name='GizmoGC']If you find Blades of Glory on Blu-Ray....BUY IT. Some stores already have it apparently and its unknown if they will be shipped back or just sold until stock runs out. I'll be getting a few just incase...[/quote]Must see Pam from the office in sessy clothing!!!!

Kinda cool.

Ebay time?
 
[quote name='dpatel']Uh-oh. The majority of BD owners are the exact age group the majority movies are catered to.[/QUOTE]

Hey, they can always get the SD version...right?
 
Yeah, I'm not too excited over this (I would have preferred a Blu exclusive studio to go neutral) but it's nice to see the "UNIVERSAL IS THE ONLY REASON HD-DVD IS ALIVE AND I HAVE A FEELING IN MY BUM KNEE THAT THEY ARE GOING NEUTRAL BY THE END OF THE YEAR" argument finally be put to rest.
 
[quote name='dallow']Must see Pam from the office in sessy clothing!!!!

Kinda cool.

Ebay time?[/QUOTE]

Hmm...I wonder if they will stop pressing new Blu-Ray discs for already released movies as well? They may actually become valuable...
 
:lol: The same people who made foolish claims about 300 catering to the "juvenile" BR owners are the same folks excited about "Transformers."

Tee-hee.

Some of the comments I've read at other blogs are clamoring for a boycott against Paramount. :lol: They're really going to notice people not buying movies they aren't releasing on BR.
 
This format war crap is starting to bug me now, I'll confess I don't know all the enconomic in's and out's but dual HD formats should never have happened.

It's ridiculous to expect people to buy two formats to be able to get all the movies they want, personally I hope people stick with DVD's and both these formats die and one single format is decided on.

If the movie companies/hardware manufacturers ever wanted to make a strong case for digital downloads, then splitting the HD disc format in two was certainly the right way to go about it.

Even though I have an HD-DVD player (360 add on) and will end up getting a PS3 in the future it's still annoying that films will be on one format and not the other.

Typically the movie companies cry "Don't download our films" in one breath and "Our movies are now HD-DVD/Blu-Ray exclusive so you'll need that format" in the next and then wonder why people download stuff. :bomb:
 
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