- LOCK - Format War - HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray - LOCK -

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[quote name='millrat1030']I agree they wanted the head start and wanted to keep the price point low, but at what price? The PS3 isn't selling all that well, yet it is slowly propelling BR ahead in the format war. Now if M$ had put a HD drive in the 360 couldn't it have done the same for HD? I guess well never know, but I'd like to think it would have. This is why I say they don't seem to really care about this war. $ony, being the biggest backer of BR, took a huge risk including BR in the PS3 and it seems to have worked. The down side is the PS3 is falling in last place in the console war.[/QUOTE]


at the time the 360 launched, HD-DVD drives probably would've made it as expensive, if not more, than the PS3.

it's really too early to say about the PS3. BD might be hurting them price wise now, but If you read the recent interview posted in the PS3 forum and combine that with all the gamer's day news, as well as the GDC news, you'll see the system is poised to get significantly more popular this Fall/Winter (with a billion dollar Home marketing blitz, of course.) that, and there are lots of attractive looking games coming out.

when the dust settles, voila, everyone has a BD player in their home.
 
[quote name='Apossum']at the time the 360 launched, HD-DVD drives probably would've made it as expensive, if not more, than the PS3.[/QUOTE]

Weren't the HD-DVD drive not even complete when the 360 came out?

I remember reading rumors that MS was going to delay the launch so they could put HD drives in.
 
[quote name='Apossum']when the dust settles, voila, everyone has a BD player in their home.[/quote]

hardly, even if the PS3 was as much of a success as the PS2 it still wouldnt account for more than a extremely menial % of all players when the public adopts. it seems like it now, because the adoption rate is so insanely small, but all those ppl who dropped $600 on the PS3 did it because theyre PS fanatics and the PS3 was a PS. not because of BR. its painfully obvious when you compare attach rates and stand alone players.
 
HD players drop in price, but yet their movies sales still lag behind BR. I'm sorry but people need to start understanding simple business. The only thing that's going to make studio's jump to HD or even dual format is money. And by that I mean either HD DVD sales, not players, need to start beating BR sales or Toshiba needs to give studios some kind of financial incentive. The whole attach rate thing people talk about doesn't mean crap, sales do. Studios don't care if they sell 1,000 movies spread out over 10 players or 100 players they just care that they sold 1,000 movies. In the end, just like everything else in this world, it comes down to the almighty dollar.
And as long as BR has the blockbuster movies everybody wants they are going to stay ahead. Think about this, come christmas time when most people splurge on electronics all the summer blockbusters will be hitting stores. Think of the summer blockbusters and look at the studios behind them. Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, Fantastic Four 2, and The Simpsons movie are all going to be BR exclusives. Shrek 3 and Transformers will also be on BR, as well as HD. I just think if people see that the movies they want to see are on BR they will spend the extra cash, or credit, for a BR player. Especially seeing by christmas the price gap between the two will be smaller.
 
"unnamed retailer"? eh.

Are these consumer orders being cancelled, or retail buyers cancelling standing orders?

Either way, while I don't think Blockbuster would have an impact, what it symbolizes - a major national retail chain that has publicly declared its support for one format over the other, may have ripple effects. No different that some people posting in here that Wal-Mart (hypothetically) getting behind HD DVD would have an impact, there's no denying that Blockbuster's choice is meaningful, if even to a slight degree.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']hardly, even if the PS3 was as much of a success as the PS2 it still wouldnt account for more than a extremely menial % of all players when the public adopts. it seems like it now, because the adoption rate is so insanely small, but all those ppl who dropped $600 on the PS3 did it because theyre PS fanatics and the PS3 was a PS. not because of BR. its painfully obvious when you compare attach rates and stand alone players.[/QUOTE]

Well of course most of them didn't get it for BD. But, when the time comes to choose, most of them will naturally go with BD, as it is the cheaper choice for them.

[quote name='propeller_head']just between you and me this format war isnt much of a war atm. DVD sales are over 1.5 billion, HD (from both formats combined) sales a couple million.

the real war comes w/ the players pricing & availability. as the amazon sale showed when it hit $200 they had like a 8000% increase or something insane in sales. in Dec when HD DVD players are sub $200 and BR players are struggling to get under $400 you'll start to see things swing the other way. and when they do studios will have more incentive to produce more HD discs and less DVD discs. when that happens DVD plants will be moved over to HD DVD plants, and the disc manufacturers will have excess capacity and be vying for studois to take orders from. studios are naturally attracted to manufacturers who are willing to make concessions. do the math. ;)[/QUOTE]

That $200 point will definitely attract a lot of people, but keep in mind that HDTVs and HD movies are still expensive. We will see a spike in sales this xmas, but neither HD nor BD will be significant any time soon. And you are completely forgetting combo players that are going to be introduced too. While they will be the most expensive, I personally think they will take off.
 
[quote name='millrat1030']HD players drop in price, but yet their movies sales still lag behind BR. I'm sorry but people need to start understanding simple business. The only thing that's going to make studio's jump to HD or even dual format is money. And by that I mean either HD DVD sales, not players, need to start beating BR sales or Toshiba needs to give studios some kind of financial incentive. The whole attach rate thing people talk about doesn't mean crap, sales do. Studios don't care if they sell 1,000 movies spread out over 10 players or 100 players they just care that they sold 1,000 movies. In the end, just like everything else in this world, it comes down to the almighty dollar.
And as long as BR has the blockbuster movies everybody wants they are going to stay ahead. Think about this, come christmas time when most people splurge on electronics all the summer blockbusters will be hitting stores. Think of the summer blockbusters and look at the studios behind them. Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, Fantastic Four 2, and The Simpsons movie are all going to be BR exclusives. Shrek 3 and Transformers will also be on BR, as well as HD. I just think if people see that the movies they want to see are on BR they will spend the extra cash, or credit, for a BR player. Especially seeing by christmas the price gap between the two will be smaller.[/quote] yea, what're your business credentials exactly? have an MBA from Wharton? attach rate MATTERS because the market is so EXTREMELY small atm. the fact there are 20x (2,000%) more BR players because of the PS3 yet only an 8% larger sales of discs means that market share is less concentrated. Meaning that even though there are more movie sales there arent enough to kill HD DVD. and all HD DVD has to do is survive long enough for the players to reach mainstream. once that happens and the public can get a HDTV for under $400 and a HD DVD player for under $200 youre going to re-evaluate what youve thought. and youre wrong about the 'blockbusters'. FF blew, Spierman 3 major letdown, Pirates was good ill give you that & the Simpsons will be awesome. BUT there are tons of great flicks coming out on universal, warner, & paramount too (& all their subsidiaries, currently BR has about 70% of all movies HD DVD about 50%).
 
[quote name='mykevermin']"unnamed retailer"? eh.

Are these consumer orders being cancelled, or retail buyers cancelling standing orders?

Either way, while I don't think Blockbuster would have an impact, what it symbolizes - a major national retail chain that has publicly declared its support for one format over the other, may have ripple effects. No different that some people posting in here that Wal-Mart (hypothetically) getting behind HD DVD would have an impact, there's no denying that Blockbuster's choice is meaningful, if even to a slight degree.[/quote]
i wouldnt really call blockbuster a retailer, much less a major retailer. they only buy once.

plus as i stated before, theyre a dying breed. i mean honestly, who buys movies there? last time i was there they wanted $30 for a DVD i could get for $12 on amazon.
 
[quote name='dpatel']Well of course most of them didn't get it for BD. But, when the time comes to choose, most of them will naturally go with BD, as it is the cheaper choice for them.



That $200 point will definitely attract a lot of people, but keep in mind that HDTVs and HD movies are still expensive. We will see a spike in sales this xmas, but neither HD nor BD will be significant any time soon. And you are completely forgetting combo players that are going to be introduced too. While they will be the most expensive, I personally think they will take off.[/quote]
how exactly is $500-600 cheaper than $200-300? and yes about the combo players. well im not sure how much more they will be than HD DVD players, but they shouldnt be more than BR/DVD players. and HDTVs are dropping very very fast. you can already get a 32" 720p set for less than $500, id expect them to reach $350 by the year end sales.
 
Purdue, and no attach rate doesn't matter. As for the PS3, the BR group had to know going in that not all PS3's were going to be used as BR players. The key is if you have let say 3 million PS3's out there if even 40% were used you'd have 1.2 million. I don't know how long HD will survive, but I personally think it could take years before it completely disappears.
Your opinion of the movies is just that your opinion. Spiderman 3 made what half a billion worldwide? I don't know the exact numbers, but I do know it did better than the first two. Fantastic Four 2 made 57 million this weekend. I'm just saying obviously people want to see these movies, good or not. And what exclusive does HD have? I know Bourne Ultimatum, but what else?
 
Top Panasonic Exec Outlines Views On Blu-ray, Flat Panel
By Steve Smith TWICE (This Week In Consumer Electronics) 6/20/2007

UPDATE! Secaucus, N.J. — Joseph Taylor, executive VP/COO of Panasonic Corporation of North America, said Blu-ray has won the HD disc format battle and indicated while the company is still solidly behind plasma, LCD may get more attention.

Those were just two of the issues Taylor discussed in an exclusive one-on-one interview with TWICE, the first since the 25-year Panasonic Industrial Company veteran took on his new job earlier this year.

Concerning Blu-ray and HD DVD, Taylor commented, "I'm giving a very politically incorrect answer. I think the battle is over. I think Blu-ray has won."
Click to expand...

http://www.twice.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA6453379
 
[quote name='propeller_head']how exactly is $500-600 cheaper than $200-300?[/QUOTE]

I was responding to your post that referred to people who already made the initial investment for the PS3. For them, BD is much cheaper, and that was Sony's plan.

[quote name='propeller_head']and yes about the combo players. well im not sure how much more they will be than HD DVD players, but they shouldnt be more than BR/DVD players. and HDTVs are dropping very very fast. you can already get a 32" 720p set for less than $500, id expect them to reach $350 by the year end sales.[/QUOTE]

While HDTVs are dropping, I never denied this, it still is pretty costly to make the move. For us early adopters, $500 is a great deal, but most people don't see the need for HD, no matter how cheap it is, and this is most of the mainstream. I do agree we will see a surge in sales due to that $200 sweet spot, but the war will still be pretty insignificant when looking at the big picture. By the time the war is actually a war, combo players will have made their way into the market.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']i wouldnt really call blockbuster a retailer, much less a major retailer. they only buy once.

plus as i stated before, theyre a dying breed. i mean honestly, who buys movies there? last time i was there they wanted $30 for a DVD i could get for $12 on amazon.[/QUOTE]

I see BBs impact on overall sales as minimal. However, BBV is a major retailer, and while they may not sell that many movies as Best Buy, etc, they are a huge business, and them supporting only BD (for the most part) will definitely hurt the exposure that HD-DVD needs.

It's not like they need to actually sell BDs in order to help them. The fact that the millions of customers who go to BBV won't even be exposed to HD-DVD while in store helps them quite a bit.
 
[quote name='anomynous']so it looks like the new $500 Sony Blu Ray player is BD-J compliant.........[/QUOTE]

Any info on this? I may snag one and dump my PS3.
 
[quote name='dallow']

[Top Panasonic Exec Outlines Views On Blu-ray, Flat Panel
By Steve Smith TWICE (This Week In Consumer Electronics) 6/20/2007

UPDATE! Secaucus, N.J. — Joseph Taylor, executive VP/COO of Panasonic Corporation of North America, said Blu-ray has won the HD disc format battle and indicated while the company is still solidly behind plasma, LCD may get more attention.

Those were just two of the issues Taylor discussed in an exclusive one-on-one interview with TWICE, the first since the 25-year Panasonic Industrial Company veteran took on his new job earlier this year.

Concerning Blu-ray and HD DVD, Taylor commented, "I'm giving a very politically incorrect answer. I think the battle is over. I think Blu-ray has won." ][/QUOTE]

Doesnt mean much coming from a member of the Blu-Ray Disc Association. Would you expect him to say anything else?
 
[quote name='dallow']Still feel it makes no sense to drop the PS3 for a standalone Giz.[/QUOTE]

I think I might wait until a dual player comes out though. PS3 is worthless to me as a gaming machine.

Love the BDA statement that the war is over. Yeah because selling a a few thoiusand more means you win. Guess PS3 lost then.
 
[quote name='dallow']Still feel it makes no sense to drop the PS3 for a standalone Giz.[/QUOTE]

:rofl: Let him live in his naive world, where the PS3 will never, ever, ever, ever, EVER have any good games for it (ever!). It's such a crappy system that he's willing to sell it for the exact same price as a machine that does precisely *one* thing the PS3 does (play movies).

Your anti-Sony attitude is absolutely flabbergasting. More power to you, hombre. Keep buying up those BR players; add to the numbers! :lol:
 
[quote name='dpatel']I was responding to your post that referred to people who already made the initial investment for the PS3. For them, BD is much cheaper, and that was Sony's plan.



While HDTVs are dropping, I never denied this, it still is pretty costly to make the move. For us early adopters, $500 is a great deal, but most people don't see the need for HD, no matter how cheap it is, and this is most of the mainstream. I do agree we will see a surge in sales due to that $200 sweet spot, but the war will still be pretty insignificant when looking at the big picture. By the time the war is actually a war, combo players will have made their way into the market.[/quote] exactly. w/ BR & HD DVD combined only about 0.15% of DVD sales 3 million PS3s is a huge install base. however in the grand scheme of things its small. thats what i meant. like you said, to most people, the prices are not in line w/ the benefits they see or the value to them. which is why i was talking about future pricing. whoever gets their MSRP below that $200 threshold first and how large the price gap is. and how affordable a HDTV is.

the way i see it HD DVD has its timing set up better, BR may look like its kicking ass & taking names now because of its drastically larger player base w/ the PS3; but thats a temporary condition of diehard Sony & PS fans adopting early. ill be surprised if the PS3, even if it manages to sell 10 mil units this year, will be ahead of stand alone HD players & dual format players by the end of Q1 next year. when i ask people i know who only casually game (by which i mean poker online and minesweeper) if the PS3 is a better value because its a game system and a BR player they see it as just a BR player because theyre not into 'those' games. whereas many people who are into traditional console games arent really movie buffs (this accounts for the extremely small PS3 attach rate); which is why i think the wii is such a success, its much more presentable to casual gamers and it has a non-threatening price. the same will ring true to stand alone players in time. but this is all jmo. time will tell ;)
 
[quote name='dpatel']No! Boycott the dual players! They are evil.[/quote]
evil shmeevel. if i can get a dual format player for even 10% more than a single format player, its a smart choice.
 
[quote name='dallow']
http://www.twice.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA6453379[/quote]
this just in, Panasonic says its products are selling and its awesome and you should totally buy Panasonic stock cause its so awesome and theyre products are so cool and every1 wants them yaddayaddayadda :lol:

sorry Panaphonic, plasma is dying breed. just ask LG
http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-13884-The+Impending+Death+of+Plasmas%3F.html

& its nice of you to tell every1 the war is over. wouldnt want any confused customers who might not buy your products:roll:
 
[quote name='propeller_head']exactly. w/ BR & HD DVD combined only about 0.15% of DVD sales 3 million PS3s is a huge install base. however in the grand scheme of things its small. thats what i meant. like you said, to most people, the prices are not in line w/ the benefits they see or the value to them. which is why i was talking about future pricing. whoever gets their MSRP below that $200 threshold first and how large the price gap is. and how affordable a HDTV is.[/QUOTE]

I think you're overestimating that $200 threshold, which is what I was previously getting at. Yes, that was the magic number for consoles last gen, and DVD players, but neither of those required an investment in a new TV to take advantage of. Sure HDTVs are gettting cheaper, and there are some great deals, but I am sure the majority of the world is content with their non-HDTVs for now, and have little reason to upgrade, regardless of how 'cheap' it is. Don't get me wrong, that $200 price point will help a lot, but it isn't as simple as you are saying.

[quote name='propeller_head']the way i see it HD DVD has its timing set up better, BR may look like its kicking ass & taking names now because of its drastically larger player base w/ the PS3; but thats a temporary condition of diehard Sony & PS fans adopting early.[/QUOTE]

Then how do you explain the higher software sales? The PS3 plays a large role, but there are more BDs being sold out there than HD-DVDs, despite the later release and higher price of hardware.

[quote name='propeller_head']ill be surprised if the PS3, even if it manages to sell 10 mil units this year, will be ahead of stand alone HD players & dual format players by the end of Q1 next year.[/QUOTE]

I have no idea what standalone sales are like, but even at the PS3s current fanbase, I imagine HD-DVD will be struggling to surpass even that. That's just a guess on my part though.

And, I think the PS3 can top 10million. The 360 was able to achieve that last year, and the PS3 seems to be about where the 360 was last year. However, the PS3 has hit a huge slump, but, the PS3 also has the benefit of games like: GTA4, DMC4, MGS4 coming out this year (maybe), and quite a few lesser known titles.

[quote name='propeller_head']when i ask people i know who only casually game (by which i mean poker online and minesweeper) if the PS3 is a better value because its a game system and a BR player they see it as just a BR player because theyre not into 'those' games. whereas many people who are into traditional console games arent really movie buffs (this accounts for the extremely small PS3 attach rate); which is why i think the wii is such a success, its much more presentable to casual gamers and it has a non-threatening price. the same will ring true to stand alone players in time. but this is all jmo. time will tell ;)[/QUOTE]

I've noticed that too, but that doesn't really mater. The PS2/Xbox/GCN were all able to do just fine catering to people not listed above. Yes there are plenty of people who wont get into the 360/PS3 because they are not as casual as the Wii, but, as we saw last gen, those 'casual' players aren't really needed to be successful.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']evil shmeevel. if i can get a dual format player for even 10% more than a single format player, its a smart choice.[/QUOTE]

Not in the long run. If everyone supported one format (for the most part), there would be no need to spend that extra 10%. Sure, its not a lot, but its wasteful and unnecessary on both consumers and companies.
 
[quote name='dallow']
http://www.twice.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA6453379[/quote]
this just in, Panasonic says its products are selling and its awesome and you should totally buy Panasonic stock cause its so awesome and theyre products are so cool and every1 wants them yaddayaddayadda :lol:

sorry Panaphonic, plasma is dying breed. just ask LG
http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-13884-The+Impending+Death+of+Plasmas%3F.html

& its nice of you to tell every1 the war is over. wouldnt want any confused customers who might not buy your products:roll:

[quote name='dallow']Hehe. I guess he is a little biased.[/quote]

ya just a little :lol:
 
Dpatel
Did you just name 3 big PS3 games that are also going to be on the 360? I cant imagine they will sell 600 hardware in the form of the PS3 instead off the 300 400 or 480 dollar Xbox 360s.
 
[quote name='GizmoGC']Dpatel
Did you just name 3 big PS3 games that are also going to be on the 360? I cant imagine they will sell 600 hardware in the form of the PS3 instead off the 300 400 or 480 dollar Xbox 360s.[/QUOTE]

You're completely negating all other variables when comparing the two consoles. This argument would only make sense if the only differentiating factor between the two consoles was price, but, there is far more to it than that. Those games will push PS3s, which does give the PS3 an edge over the 360 (when comparing it to its first year).
 
[quote name='dpatel']I think you're overestimating that $200 threshold, which is what I was previously getting at. Yes, that was the magic number for consoles last gen, and DVD players, but neither of those required an investment in a new TV to take advantage of. Sure HDTVs are gettting cheaper, and there are some great deals, but I am sure the majority of the world is content with their non-HDTVs for now, and have little reason to upgrade, regardless of how 'cheap' it is. Don't get me wrong, that $200 price point will help a lot, but it isn't as simple as you are saying.[/quote]
sure it is, you saw the same thing happen even when TVs went from round to flatscreen (i dont mean flatscreen like LCD, i mean when the glass became flat so the picture wasnt distorted anymore) and 480i became 480p (which unlike w/ 1080i & p, mattered because it actually changed the resolution of the screen on CRTs). and HDTV is much more obvious as its letterboxed, people w/ SDTVs will wonder why 1/2 their screen is now empty. they may be content for now, but now and the end of the year are very far away, much less 2k8. remember both comcast & DirecTV will have around 100HD channels by years end. people flipping through the channels will notice this & it will give them incentive; theyll feel the time has come where it can be of use to them & the prices will be low enough to make it a sensible buy. the next thing they're going to look at is the players. i already said what i think will happen after that. ;)



Then how do you explain the higher software sales? The PS3 plays a large role, but there are more BDs being sold out there than HD-DVDs, despite the later release and higher price of hardware.
Click to expand...
there are 2,000% more BR players if you include the PS3, yet only 100% more sales (on the weeks were BR gets an influx of new releases and HD DVD is dry); only 8% more total. thats a pretty large discrepency for such a difference in install base.


I have no idea what standalone sales are like, but even at the PS3s current fanbase, I imagine HD-DVD will be struggling to surpass even that. That's just a guess on my part though.

And, I think the PS3 can top 10million. The 360 was able to achieve that last year, and the PS3 seems to be about where the 360 was last year. However, the PS3 has hit a huge slump, but, the PS3 also has the benefit of games like: GTA4, DMC4, MGS4 coming out this year (maybe), and quite a few lesser known titles.
Click to expand...
im not getting into PS3 sales predicitons because i have no idea what kind of moves Sonys going to make. maybe a new 80GB model, maybe include rumble in a new pack, maybe even drop the price $200. but im just going by the estimite i hear most often. and it seems reasonable to me; because even w/ the larger brand recognition of the PS name, they still have to work against all the bad press theyve gotten for such hits as "Hi-Def doesnt start until we say it does" "it's 4D" "rumble is last-gen (to which when asked why they said that when they knew they were going to add it later even if they lost the suit, harrison said 'what did you expect us to say, we were in the middle of a lawsuit')" "we want people to work more hours to buy it, we want people to want it irrespective of anything else"
"It’s probably too cheap…" "If you can find a PS3 anywhere in North America that's been on shelves for more than five minutes, I'll give you 1200 bucks for it." "The first five million are going to buy it (PS3), whatever it is, even if it didn't have games." "The PlayStation 3 is a computer. We do not need the PC." "I don’t think we’re arrogant." "it (Nintendo DS) won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick." now i loved my PS2 and my PSX, i really really did. and all my tube TVs were sonys, and my VCRs and my walkman and lots of things (except their cameras, Canon kills them); i even had a minidisc player for my car. but seriously; they have tripped up so many times w/ the PS3 so far its astounding to me. and i plan on picking up a PS3 when they move to 65nm and get a price drop & rumble. but thats still not going to sway my pref for HD DVD, and im not a casual gamer.



I've noticed that too, but that doesn't really mater. The PS2/Xbox/GCN were all able to do just fine catering to people not listed above. Yes there are plenty of people who wont get into the 360/PS3 because they are not as casual as the Wii, but, as we saw last gen, those 'casual' players aren't really needed to be successful.
Click to expand...
yes, they arent needed to be sucessful in the overall scheme of a video game console. but if you compare the number of consoles to stand alone DVD players now youll see a ginormous difference.
 
[quote name='dpatel']You're completely negating all other variables when comparing the two consoles. This argument would only make sense if the only differentiating factor between the two consoles was price, but, there is far more to it than that. Those games will push PS3s, which does give the PS3 an edge over the 360 (when comparing it to its first year).[/quote]

Hardly doubt GTAIV and DMC4 will "push" PS3 sales, MGS4 will, but that's only if no announcement of it going multiplaform before it reaches retail. Though, there's not many smart people out there that could justify spending $600+$60 to only play the "exclusive" MGS4.

PS3 has lost a lot of buyers that jumped ship to X360 with the delays and the high price point of the PS3. These same ex-Sony fan-boys will not be purchasing a PS3 to play those games, since they can simply purchase them for a console that they already own. Also believe it or not, but with multiplatform titles like these, a big majority of PS3/X360 owners will choose the X360 version over the PS3 simply because of the Achievements.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']sure it is, you saw the same thing happen even when TVs went from round to flatscreen (i dont mean flatscreen like LCD, i mean when the glass became flat so the picture wasnt distorted anymore) and 480i became 480p (which unlike w/ 1080i & p, mattered because it actually changed the resolution of the screen on CRTs). and HDTV is much more obvious as its letterboxed, people w/ SDTVs will wonder why 1/2 their screen is now empty. they may be content for now, but now and the end of the year are very far away, much less 2k8. remember both comcast & DirecTV will have around 100HD channels by years end. people flipping through the channels will notice this & it will give them incentive; theyll feel the time has come where it can be of use to them & the prices will be low enough to make it a sensible buy. the next thing they're going to look at is the players. i already said what i think will happen after that. ;)[/QUOTE]

That really sounds like you are just referring to a very small group, which isn't representative of the entire US (or the world). Not everyone has the luxury of being able to pay a couple hundred extra for a higher resolution of picture clarity. It is still way too soon for both formats, and while they will both slowly grow, it will be 4-5 years until either (or both) are mainstream.

[quote name='propeller_head']there are 2,000% more BR players if you include the PS3, yet only 100% more sales (on the weeks were BR gets an influx of new releases and HD DVD is dry); only 8% more total. thats a pretty large discrepency for such a difference in install base.[/QUOTE]

But you said BD is only 'kicking ass' because PS3 is boosting hardware sales. That is true, but, like I pointed out, software sales are also ahead. And, not all PS3s are bought with the intention of playing movies at this time, so that low attach rate really isn't of much concern.

[quote name='propeller_head']im not getting into PS3 sales predicitons because i have no idea what kind of moves Sonys going to make. maybe a new 80GB model, maybe include rumble in a new pack, maybe even drop the price $200. but im just going by the estimite i hear most often. and it seems reasonable to me; because even w/ the larger brand recognition of the PS name, they still have to work against all the bad press theyve gotten for such hits as "Hi-Def doesnt start until we say it does" "it's 4D" "rumble is last-gen (to which when asked why they said that when they knew they were going to add it later even if they lost the suit, harrison said 'what did you expect us to say, we were in the middle of a lawsuit')" "we want people to work more hours to buy it, we want people to want it irrespective of anything else"
"It’s probably too cheap…" "If you can find a PS3 anywhere in North America that's been on shelves for more than five minutes, I'll give you 1200 bucks for it." "The first five million are going to buy it (PS3), whatever it is, even if it didn't have games." "The PlayStation 3 is a computer. We do not need the PC." "I don’t think we’re arrogant." "it (Nintendo DS) won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick." now i loved my PS2 and my PSX, i really really did. and all my tube TVs were sonys, and my VCRs and my walkman and lots of things (except their cameras, Canon kills them); i even had a minidisc player for my car. but seriously; they have tripped up so many times w/ the PS3 so far its astounding to me. and i plan on picking up a PS3 when they move to 65nm and get a price drop & rumble. but thats still not going to sway my pref for HD DVD, and im not a casual gamer.[/QUOTE]

I'm not saying they will be successful by the end of this year, but they can still push 10million, without being successful. Even if they don't, that is still far more than any standalone HD-DVD will sell.

[quote name='propeller_head']yes, they arent needed to be sucessful in the overall scheme of a video game console. but if you compare the number of consoles to stand alone DVD players now youll see a ginormous difference.[/QUOTE]

What does that have to do with anything? Are you assuming that, since the Wii is casual, and DVD players are casual, that the Wii will absorb that casual fanbase? Horrible logic.
 
[quote name='LinkinPrime']Hardly doubt GTAIV and DMC4 will "push" PS3 sales, MGS4 will, but that's only if no announcement of it going multiplaform before it reaches retail.[/QUOTE]

Since you just joined the argument, I'd like to point out this:
No, I don't think that GTA4 and DMC4 will push more PS3s than it will the 360. But, propeller said that the PS3 probably won't reach 10 million by the end of this year. I responded by saying that, while the PS3 is not doing as well as the 360, the 360 did not have the luxury, in its first year, of having huge system sellers like GTA4, DMC4, and MGS4.

[quote name='LinkinPrime']Though, there's not many smart people out there that could justify spending $600+$60 to only play the "exclusive" MGS4. [/QUOTE]

If MGS4 is the only thing on the PS3 that appeals to them, then yes, that would be stupid. Most likely, if someone is getting the PS3, it won't be just to play MGS4.
 
[quote name='dpatel']You're completely negating all other variables when comparing the two consoles. This argument would only make sense if the only differentiating factor between the two consoles was price, but, there is far more to it than that. Those games will push PS3s, which does give the PS3 an edge over the 360 (when comparing it to its first year).[/QUOTE]

What edge?

Graphics? Last gen Xbox had better graphics then the PS2...and we all know how that went.
 
[quote name='dpatel']Since you just joined the argument, I'd like to point out this:
No, I don't think that GTA4 and DMC4 will push more PS3s than it will the 360. But, propeller said that the PS3 probably won't reach 10 million by the end of this year. I responded by saying that, while the PS3 is not doing as well as the 360, the 360 did not have the luxury, in its first year, of having huge system sellers like GTA4, DMC4, and MGS4.



If MGS4 is the only thing on the PS3 that appeals to them, then yes, that would be stupid. Most likely, if someone is getting the PS3, it won't be just to play MGS4.[/quote]

:whistle2:# Sorry dude.
 
I was wondering when this would finally end up as another console wars thread. :lol:
 
[quote name='GizmoGC']What edge?

Graphics? Last gen Xbox had better graphics then the PS2...and we all know how that went.[/QUOTE]

What? Did I say anything remotely close to that? I said, when comparing the PS3s first year (2007), to the 360s first year (2006), the PS3 has the advantage of having titles like: GTA4, MGS4, and DMC4 (along with many others I chose not to mention). Yes the 360 does have those THIS YEAR (2007), but, the original argument was that the PS3 won't be able to sell 10 million by the end of this year. To which my response was that the 360 was able to with less 'system selling' software last year (2006).

Get it now?
 
[quote name='LinkinPrime']:whistle2:# Sorry dude.[/QUOTE]

No worries. I completely agree with what you were saying, but you kinda came in the middle of a discussion between me and propeller, and sorta just caught half of my point. We really were discussing whether or not the PS3 would hit 10 million this year, which is why I started to compare the PS3 this year, to the 360 last year (because the 360 was able to hit 10million).
 
[quote name='Apossum']I was wondering when this would finally end up as another console wars thread. :lol:[/QUOTE]

It lasted a good 20 pages before it happened.

I had nothing to do with it! >_>
 
[quote name='dpatel']That really sounds like you are just referring to a very small group, which isn't representative of the entire US (or the world). Not everyone has the luxury of being able to pay a couple hundred extra for a higher resolution of picture clarity. It is still way too soon for both formats, and while they will both slowly grow, it will be 4-5 years until either (or both) are mainstream.[/quote] we'll have to agree to disagree. i see it being mainstream by the end of 2k8 w/ the format war over and both formats surviving. and i think prices are getting to that point; i mean when i was on a limited budget and in college i still managed to wrangle up $400 for a decent 20" trinitron (man i miss trinitrons :lol:, the name was so cool. bravia sounds like a flower).



But you said BD is only 'kicking ass' because PS3 is boosting hardware sales. That is true, but, like I pointed out, software sales are also ahead. And, not all PS3s are bought with the intention of playing movies at this time, so that low attach rate really isn't of much concern.
Click to expand...
im not exaclty sure what your disputing? you seem to be agreeing w/ me



I'm not saying they will be successful by the end of this year, but they can still push 10million, without being successful. Even if they don't, that is still far more than any standalone HD-DVD will sell.
Click to expand...
well like i said, end of Q1 2k8. think of it like this, during that time amazon had the HD-A2 sale they sold 50% as many players as they had in the entire previous year.



What does that have to do with anything? Are you assuming that, since the Wii is casual, and DVD players are casual, that the Wii will absorb that casual fanbase? Horrible logic.
Click to expand...
huh? no i was using it as an illustration of the thought process. of course there arent going to be as many wiis sold as dvd players. well there could be, but it would be extreeeemely improbable. i was talking about stand alone DVD players compared to consoles in general.
 
[quote name='dpatel'] But, propeller said that the PS3 probably won't reach 10 million by the end of this year. I[/quote]
i did no such thing. i said even if they sell 10 million (i used that number because its the one ive heard estimated most often) i dont think they will outnumber stand alone players by the end of Q1 2k8 like it does now.
 
[quote name='dpatel']What? Did I say anything remotely close to that? I said, when comparing the PS3s first year (2007), to the 360s first year (2006), the PS3 has the advantage of having titles like: GTA4, MGS4, and DMC4 (along with many others I chose not to mention). Yes the 360 does have those THIS YEAR (2007), but, the original argument was that the PS3 won't be able to sell 10 million by the end of this year. To which my response was that the 360 was able to with less 'system selling' software last year (2006).

Get it now?[/QUOTE]

The 360 has no 'next gen' competition for an entire year, while the PS3 has the 360 with its 12+ Million base, and Wii with its 3.5/4+ Million fanbase. So while those 3 titles are 'big', I doubt you will see people choosing a $600 system for those games when the 360 is available for much less with a much bigger library of games already. PS3 selling 10 Million consoles by the years end :lol:

Sorry, we should get this topic back on track.
 
if the PS3 gets a $200 price cut i can see 10 mil w/o a problem. $100 price cut im not so sure; they need to close the price gap in addition to making it cheaper.
 
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