- LOCK - Format War - HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray - LOCK -

Status
Not open for further replies.
1065469428-00.jpg


You know how it's done, motherfuckers!
 
[quote name='dallow']Hehe, instantly I was reminded of Conan's nerd voice.[/QUOTE]

Hey, I resent that. *fixes black thick-framed glasses*
 
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=397

Blu-ray Disc Sales Continue Dominance


Posted August 14, 2007 by Josh

bd.gif
According to Home Media Research, during the first half of 2007 a total of 1.6M movies were sold on the Blu-ray format. Rival HD DVD sold less than half during the same time period, with a total of 795,000 movies sold. Since the launch of the formats, Blu-ray has amassed sales of 2.2M movies compared to just 1.5M on HD DVD (which includes data collected through July).

Blu-ray continues to maintain a 2:1 sales advantage over its rival heading into the all-important holiday shopping season, and with the long list of upcoming Blu-ray releases, including 'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End' and 'Spider-man 3', that sales advantage will continue to increase. Consumers are overwhelmingly showing their support for Blu-ray, a fact that has not escaped many studios and retailers who recently announced Blu-ray exclusivity.

The recent release of Warner Brothers '300' gave a sales boost to both formats. The Blu-ray version sold 190,000 copies since the title went on sale, compared to 97,000 on HD DVD, according to Warner's Steve Nickerson. Since the majority of these sales occurred in August, Blu-ray is expecting to report strong numbers for the month.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=399

The World is Blu

According to a report by Media Control GfK International regarding international high definition sales during the first half of the year, Blu-ray is benefiting from a nearly 3:1 sales advantage in non-US countries. The report states that 650,000 movies were sold on the Blu-ray format the first two quarters, compared to only 240,000 on HD DVD.

While these numbers are easily dwarfed by US sales (which reported earlier as 2.2M units), this report does show that worldwide, Blu-ray is the dominant format. There are many reasons to account for lower high definition sales internationally, including cost of hardware and availability of software. As these two issues are resolved, expect Blu-ray numbers to catch up with the US, and eventually, surpass it.

So, not only did 300 sell twice as many copies on Blu-ray as HD-DVD, it's selling 3 times as many copies around the world. How much longer will Universal continue to choose to miss out on such a huge user base?
 
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the number of regular dvd sales for 300.

300K (combining both hd formats) seems like a good sign for the future of hd movies.
 
[quote name='happy']Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the number of regular dvd sales for 300.

300K (combining both hd formats) seems like a good sign for the future of hd movies.[/QUOTE]

i'm guessing 2 to 3 million units on SD DVD
 
[quote name='happy']Wow... that's a lot of DVDs. So HD is about 6% of the market. That's not too bad I suppose, considering how few people have the capability.[/quote] I get 4.67%.

250,000/5,354,827=0.466868...
 
[quote name='geko29']I get 4.67%.

250,000/5,354,827=0.466868...[/quote]Probably because he used the correct numbers. (or at least the ones mentioned above for both formats 300K, 5.104M)
 
[quote name='H.Cornerstone']http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=397

Blu-ray Disc Sales Continue Dominance


Posted August 14, 2007 by Josh

bd.gif
According to Home Media Research, during the first half of 2007 a total of 1.6M movies were sold on the Blu-ray format. Rival HD DVD sold less than half during the same time period, with a total of 795,000 movies sold. Since the launch of the formats, Blu-ray has amassed sales of 2.2M movies compared to just 1.5M on HD DVD (which includes data collected through July).

Blu-ray continues to maintain a 2:1 sales advantage over its rival heading into the all-important holiday shopping season, and with the long list of upcoming Blu-ray releases, including 'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End' and 'Spider-man 3', that sales advantage will continue to increase. Consumers are overwhelmingly showing their support for Blu-ray, a fact that has not escaped many studios and retailers who recently announced Blu-ray exclusivity.

The recent release of Warner Brothers '300' gave a sales boost to both formats. The Blu-ray version sold 190,000 copies since the title went on sale, compared to 97,000 on HD DVD, according to Warner's Steve Nickerson. Since the majority of these sales occurred in August, Blu-ray is expecting to report strong numbers for the month.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=399

The World is Blu

According to a report by Media Control GfK International regarding international high definition sales during the first half of the year, Blu-ray is benefiting from a nearly 3:1 sales advantage in non-US countries. The report states that 650,000 movies were sold on the Blu-ray format the first two quarters, compared to only 240,000 on HD DVD.

While these numbers are easily dwarfed by US sales (which reported earlier as 2.2M units), this report does show that worldwide, Blu-ray is the dominant format. There are many reasons to account for lower high definition sales internationally, including cost of hardware and availability of software. As these two issues are resolved, expect Blu-ray numbers to catch up with the US, and eventually, surpass it.

So, not only did 300 sell twice as many copies on Blu-ray as HD-DVD, it's selling 3 times as many copies around the world. How much longer will Universal continue to choose to miss out on such a huge user base?[/quote]

Hmm how will the HD DVD fanboys spin this......:whistle2:k
 
When the new, cheaper HDDVD players come out. The tides will turn. And Blu Ray users will find that their precious players are worthless. ITS GONNA HAPPEN
 
[quote name='dallow']Probably because he used the correct numbers. (or at least the ones mentioned above for both formats 300K, 5.104M)[/quote]
Apples and oranges. The 5.104M is for sales the week ending August 5th, the 287k includes HD and BR sales through the 14th. 250k were sold on the HD formats the week ending August 5th.

You can't include HiDef sales for the past week and ignore SD sales as if 300 didn't sell any additional copies on DVD. Besides that, even if you do use those incorrect numbers, it still only comes to 5.3%. So it's wrong no matter how you look at it. :)
 
I betting Universal will go dual format come the release of Bourne Ultimatum, if not sooner. How can you pass up the chance to sell 3 times as many copies. I serious can't believe people are still talking about a cheap HD player that will kill BR. Cheaper or not it's not helping sales. HD is by far the cheaper brand but yet BR is still selling 2:1. This is even after the big June price drop that sent sales through the roof. Look I'm not trying to start a fanboy rant, it's just HD seems to be rolling over. BR is beating them in marketing hands down. I don't get what HD is doing, do they have some big card up their sleeves that we don't know about? The momentum that BR has been on is going to be hard if not impossible to stop unless they do something soon. I think as long as the blockbuster hits keep coming to BR, HD doesn't have a chance. How do people believe if HD has a cheap player they will some how be able to sell so many that studios will take notice? Studios are taking notice, and their seeing that BR outselling HD 2 to 1 and have been doing it all year.
I think we are benefiting from this war as it's causing prices to fall, hopefully soon the movies will drop below 20 bucks.
 
as for bsg, wtf is taking so long to get season 1 into HD, it was either announced or rumored awhile ago.

as for the war, IMO HD dvd losing is in large part due to the fucking higher priced combo discs. The hd dvd disc allegedly cost about $2.00 less to make then blue ray, so why the fuck does the same movie on both formats cost more on HD DVD by about $5.00. I have both players (360 add on, and newly purchased ps3) and going forward, I will not support HD dvd when I have a choice to get it cheaper on blue ray. IMO, if they came out with a $25 msrp on all hd discs, that is what will drive sales of there discs. If I was to go into a store look at the hd discs costing $35, and the blue ray at about $30 during release week at B&M stores, I would pick up ps3 over the cheap hd dvd player.
 
[quote name='millrat1030']I betting Universal will go dual format come the release of Bourne Ultimatum, if not sooner. How can you pass up the chance to sell 3 times as many copies. I serious can't believe people are still talking about a cheap HD player that will kill BR. Cheaper or not it's not helping sales. HD is by far the cheaper brand but yet BR is still selling 2:1. This is even after the big June price drop that sent sales through the roof. Look I'm not trying to start a fanboy rant, it's just HD seems to be rolling over. BR is beating them in marketing hands down. I don't get what HD is doing, do they have some big card up their sleeves that we don't know about? The momentum that BR has been on is going to be hard if not impossible to stop unless they do something soon. I think as long as the blockbuster hits keep coming to BR, HD doesn't have a chance. How do people believe if HD has a cheap player they will some how be able to sell so many that studios will take notice? Studios are taking notice, and their seeing that BR outselling HD 2 to 1 and have been doing it all year.
I think we are benefiting from this war as it's causing prices to fall, hopefully soon the movies will drop below 20 bucks.[/QUOTE]

Nah. It is tempting, but if nothing else, Bourne Ultimatum will be their last hurrah to attempt to persuade the market in the direction of HD DVD. Generalizing the 300 sales data a bit more than I should, being BR exclusive nets you 3.3% of the DVD market, while being HD exclusive gets you 1.6% of the market. So, there is not that huge of an incentive, yet, but those percentages won't, IMO, shrink. If, as they grow, the gap between them widens, then very, very soon, Universal will switch over.

:lol: That's the one thing no HD DVD fanatic can spin away: the *second* Universal goes format neutral, its *ALL* over for HD DVD.

[quote name='ryanbph']as for bsg, wtf is taking so long to get season 1 into HD, it was either announced or rumored awhile ago.

as for the war, IMO HD dvd losing is in large part due to the fucking higher priced combo discs. The hd dvd disc allegedly cost about $2.00 less to make then blue ray, so why the fuck does the same movie on both formats cost more on HD DVD by about $5.00. I have both players (360 add on, and newly purchased ps3) and going forward, I will not support HD dvd when I have a choice to get it cheaper on blue ray. IMO, if they came out with a $25 msrp on all hd discs, that is what will drive sales of there discs. If I was to go into a store look at the hd discs costing $35, and the blue ray at about $30 during release week at B&M stores, I would pick up ps3 over the cheap hd dvd player.[/QUOTE]

Oh, you poor creature. No hi-def video watcher should be buying BR or HD in B&M stores. DDD or Amazon are the best prices right now, with BR videos usually going for $20-23, and very frequent sales. Please don't support $30 videos at Best Buy, even if you are helping BR/HD.
 
Only Frys seems to having cheap BD sales from time to time, picked up a bunch of movies, all for under $15.00.

Never pay more than $20, please.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']

Oh, you poor creature. No hi-def video watcher should be buying BR or HD in B&M stores. DDD or Amazon are the best prices right now, with BR videos usually going for $20-23, and very frequent sales. Please don't support $30 videos at Best Buy, even if you are helping BR/HD.[/quote]

I usually get it from amazon, as I had gotten a prime membership. But that fact of the matter is that I would imagine the majority of High def video player owners don't search for the cheapest deals, and more importantly the soon to be HD DVD or Blue ray player owners will not be finding places that save them a couple of bucks. Plain and simple hd dvd is cheaper to make, it is even cheaper to make having the combo disc. There is no excuse for the higher markup
 
[quote name='ryanbph']Plain and simple hd dvd is cheaper to make, it is even cheaper to make having the combo disc. There is no excuse for the higher markup[/QUOTE]

Don't know what to tell you. Companies love the monies?
 
[quote name='propeller_head']yay! more FUD & mudslinging marketing![/quote]
Because you know, the same article isn't at www.highdefdigest.com...

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Industry_Trends/Disc_Sales/Disc_Sales:_Hard_Numbers_in_for_First_Half_of_2007/862

OHH WAIT, IT IS!

Face/Off and Jack Ryan Collection Delayed


Posted August 16, 2007 by Josh


Paramount Home Entertainment has updated their release schedule, and two upcoming titles have been delayed into October. The John Woo action film 'Face/Off' has been delayed from September 11th to October 30th. Also, an interesting note, the "2-disc" verbiage has been removed from the cover, though no specs have changed. The upcoming 'Jack Ryan Collection' has also been delayed, from September 25th to October 23rd. No specs have been changed.

Apperently they are going from a 2 disc version of Faceoff on Blu-ray to a dual layer disc where as with HD-DVD it will still be 2 discs, although both will have the same amount of features.
 
whats that got to do w/ anything. the article you quoted from bluray.com was bollox about "Blu-ray DOMINATION". its still 60/40 like its been for ages. the 2:1 is just recently (aka after the PS3). duh sales are gunna spike after the PS3, especially for things like 300 which is aimed at the exact same demographic as the ps3. it still only maintains 10% over a perfect 50/50 split though. 10% more in a market making up roughly 1% of what the DVD market is. ask youself, is that really "DOMINATION"?
 
A 2:1 ratio translates into 66.66666(repeating)% marketshare and 33.333333(repeating)% marketshare, respectively. The overall sales figures for BR and HD, up to recent weeks, shows 1.6m BR discs sold versus 795K HD DVD; solid numbers that reinforce the 2:1 ratio, and, thus, 66% to 33% marketshare.

You also contradict yourself when you state that it's been 60/40 for "ages," and 2:1 recently (post-PS3). How long is ages when both formats are a touch over a year old? How long is recently when a system is 9 months old? The difference between "ages" and "recently" lies somewhere in those few months b/w the debut of both formats and the release of the PS3 last november? I disagree.

:lol: "10% over a perfect 50/50 split." :lol: You're a bright dude, propeller. You can do better than that. It's much closer to 17% over, and the gap between BR and HD is exactly the same size as the number of HD DVD discs sold: 33.33%.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']whats that got to do w/ anything. the article you quoted from bluray.com was bollox about "Blu-ray DOMINATION". its still 60/40 like its been for ages. the 2:1 is just recently (aka after the PS3). duh sales are gunna spike after the PS3, especially for things like 300 which is aimed at the exact same demographic as the ps3. it still only maintains 10% over a perfect 50/50 split though. 10% more in a market making up roughly 1% of what the DVD market is. ask youself, is that really "DOMINATION"?[/quote]
I like how a 20% difference can be changed to 10% so easily :)

I could just as easily say Blu-ray is selling 50% more than hddvd. In presidential elections 60/40 is considered a landslide

And blaming it on the new PS3 sales is kind of silly because those people are keeping their PS3s. I thought I remember the former argument being people buying PS3s don't buy Blu-rays.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']A 2:1 ratio translates into 66.66666(repeating)% marketshare and 33.333333(repeating)% marketshare, respectively. The overall sales figures for BR and HD, up to recent weeks, shows 1.6m BR discs sold versus 795K HD DVD; solid numbers that reinforce the 2:1 ratio, and, thus, 66% to 33% marketshare.

You also contradict yourself when you state that it's been 60/40 for "ages," and 2:1 recently (post-PS3). How long is ages when both formats are a touch over a year old? How long is recently when a system is 9 months old? The difference between "ages" and "recently" lies somewhere in those few months b/w the debut of both formats and the release of the PS3 last november? I disagree.

:lol: "10% over a perfect 50/50 split." :lol: You're a bright dude, propeller. You can do better than that. It's much closer to 17% over, and the gap between BR and HD is exactly the same size as the number of HD DVD discs sold: 33.33%.[/quote] its not a 2:1 ratio. the very latest nielsen videoscan has it at 60% and 40%.

look, its at the bottom of pg. 3 8/5/07 60% 40%
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom081207/

its 2:1 rounded as an average for the first 6 months of 2k7. and thats obvious since thats when all the players and movies came out; of couse thats when they sell. like remember BR.com bs story about how it outsells HD DVD so much in australia when a HD DVD player was only available for 1 of those 3 months; or how the high price of movies and no region coding meant that the already tiny percent of the already tiny marketshare was importing exacerbating the skew of the 'story'? its the same thing regurgitated.

and 60% is only 10% more than 50%
if BR didnt have that 10% HD DVD would be 50%. since there are only 2 formats. thats just simple logic. theyre both working to push into that large DVD market share and the pie growth isnt steady in any direction. thats why i said look at last year, HD DVD consistantly selling more. their only possible chance to actually win is the PS3, and that isnt going as planned as those NPD studies have shown. i still maintain both formats are staying. unless they can get over 70% of the market share for at least a year HD DVD cant really fail as a format.

[quote name='happy']I like how a 20% difference can be changed to 10% so easily :)

I could just as easily say Blu-ray is selling 50% more than hddvd. In presidential elections 60/40 is considered a landslide

And blaming it on the new PS3 sales is kind of silly because those people are keeping their PS3s. I thought I remember the former argument being people buying PS3s don't buy Blu-rays.[/quote] its not changed, its just focused into perspective. just one actually has meaning and one is a perversion of it. 10% over 50/50 is true. if it were 3:1 then it would be 75% and 25% over, that would be significant. its like a scale, on one side u have BD one the other HD DVD. you may add 65k vs 35k discs one week, but thats nothing compared to the billions of dvds sold. so being outsold at this point in time poses no threat. what sonys attempting to do is put the idea that the wars over into tech geeks heads so they can tell their non tech geek friends. a strategy which, imo, wont work. since as popular as the internet is, most people just use it for email, porn, and iming their BFF:lol: 50% more as you say, is still only 1/5 of less than 1% of the market. oh and in elections, only one person can win. in consumer electronics, monopolies are usually frowned upon.
 
Well, Nielsen is a reliable data service, so I won't get into a methodological debate here. So, "year to date" at that link you provided shows, is what shows the 66-34% ratio (the 2:1 ratio). That's more than "the first six months of 2K7," it's "year to date," which must include the 8/5 week sales (since they are available) - otherwise, it wouldn't be "year to date," it would be "1/1/07 through 8/4/07."

At any rate, you seem to be correct: the gap between the two formats is 60-40 for overall sales. But, you're also neglecting one aspect of HD DVD that you reminded me, just in the above post, the BR did in Australia. HD DVD had a 2-month head start on BR; not significant, mind, you, but, as in the Australia anecdote, significant enough to get a jump start in sales (if it weren't the case, then BR wouldn't have anything to spin about their sales ratio in AU).

Additionally, if the overall sales ratio is 60-40%, it is less than the current trend for all of 2007, 66-33% (but also *inclusive* of that trend). Since the current ratio is higher than the overall average, it is only mathematically possible that the overall ratio quite heavily favored HD DVD in 2006. Now, that's news to nobody, I'm sure, but what it suggests, to me, is an indicator that exalting the "60-40" ratio is merely an attempt to cling to data that suggest the war is closer than it currently is, whereas that ratio is merely the result of sales trends that are contrary to all indicators for this whole year. A genuinely calculated average, no doubt, but not one that is an indicator of sales trends for anything but the earliest days of hi-def disc sales. Those trends indicate something else to me: some may complain about the inclusion of BR into the PS3, but the stark shift in momentum that began as soon as 11/17/06 hit is an indicator that BR would be dead in the water if not for thew PS3.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']Well, Nielsen is a reliable data service, so I won't get into a methodological debate here. So, "year to date" at that link you provided shows, is what shows the 66-34% ratio (the 2:1 ratio). That's more than "the first six months of 2K7," it's "year to date," which must include the 8/5 week sales (since they are available) - otherwise, it wouldn't be "year to date," it would be "1/1/07 through 8/4/07."

At any rate, you seem to be correct: the gap between the two formats is 60-40 for overall sales. But, you're also neglecting one aspect of HD DVD that you reminded me, just in the above post, the BR did in Australia. HD DVD had a 2-month head start on BR; not significant, mind, you, but, as in the Australia anecdote, significant enough to get a jump start in sales (if it weren't the case, then BR wouldn't have anything to spin about their sales ratio in AU).

Additionally, if the overall sales ratio is 60-40%, it is less than the current trend for all of 2007, 66-33% (but also *inclusive* of that trend). Since the current ratio is higher than the overall average, it is only mathematically possible that the overall ratio quite heavily favored HD DVD in 2006. Now, that's news to nobody, I'm sure, but what it suggests, to me, is an indicator that exalting the "60-40" ratio is merely an attempt to cling to data that suggest the war is closer than it currently is, whereas that ratio is merely the result of sales trends that are contrary to all indicators for this whole year. A genuinely calculated average, no doubt, but not one that is an indicator of sales trends for anything but the earliest days of hi-def disc sales. Those trends indicate something else to me: some may complain about the inclusion of BR into the PS3, but the stark shift in momentum that began as soon as 11/17/06 hit is an indicator that BR would be dead in the water if not for thew PS3.[/quote] no it was BD that had the time advantage not HD DVD. go back and look.
http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3018506&highlight=australia#post3018506

as for the rest of your post, its a fantastic melange of BS.
HD DVD sold more when there were more HD DVD movies and the PS3 wasnt out, BD sold more when PS3 came out (well a couple months after anyway). again like ive said before tho, PS3 by itself will only be a menial proportion of total players. and sony only has a small window to take advantage of that hardcore (fanboy/spoiled kid/HT geek) to gain a foothold thats willing to pay the early entry price to an uncertain format (of the 20% of PS3 owners who even know & care that it has BD). you know the other 99% of the people who are still buying DVDs? what do you think the plants that are making those DVDs will be doing when those people start buying $300 HDTVs and $150 HD DVD players at wal-mart? its much cheaper to adjust a DVD fab to make HD DVDs than it is to buy complete BD assembly lines. theres a reason HD DVD is the prefered format for smaller studios and indie films; look at the amazon deal.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6456860.html

im just saying, trying to make it out like either format is victorious is a exercise in futility. its an unrealistic perspective which only benefits a.) the people marketing the PR hype, b.) the people publishing that hype generating money off the ad revenue. stories like 300 2:1 on BD can be interesting reads if youre bored, but to try to read a trend into something at this stage in the game...; n'est-ce pas?
 
[quote name='propeller_head']no it was BD that had the time advantage not HD DVD. go back and look.
http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3018506&highlight=australia#post3018506[/quote]

IN THE UNITED STATES. HD DVD released in April of 2006, BR in June of 2006.

as for the rest of your post, its a fantastic melange of BS.
HD DVD sold more when there were more HD DVD movies and the PS3 wasnt out, BD sold more when PS3 came out (well a couple months after anyway). again like ive said before tho, PS3 by itself will only be a menial proportion of total players. and sony only has a small window to take advantage of that hardcore (fanboy/spoiled kid/HT geek) to gain a foothold thats willing to pay the early entry price to an uncertain format (of the 20% of PS3 owners who even know & care that it has BD). you know the other 99% of the people who are still buying DVDs? what do you think the plants that are making those DVDs will be doing when those people start buying $300 HDTVs and $150 HD DVD players at wal-mart? its much cheaper to adjust a DVD fab to make HD DVDs than it is to buy complete BD assembly lines. theres a reason HD DVD is the prefered format for smaller studios and indie films; look at the amazon deal.
Click to expand...

Mm-hmm. I tried to be polite this time. Thanks for lowering the bar.

Now, as for "BS," it's 100% pure conjecture to call PS3 owners all "fanboys/spoiled kids/HT geeks," *particularly* when you admit as much a sentence or so later, when you (AGAIN WITH THE DATA MISREPRESENTATION! CHECK YOUR OWN CITATION OF THE ARTICLE!) claim that only 20% of PS3 owners know of the BR capacity (so they're simultaneously HT geeks and people who don't know any better? :lol:) It's 40% who are aware of BR, twice your claim. Go back and look at the article you brought up in this thread not 4-5 days ago.

Now, the 300 DVD sales show that just over 5% of all discs sold were hi-def (3.7% of all copies of 300 were BR, 1.8% HD). So, you have just under 4 and just under 2 out of every 100 copies being sold in BR and HD, respectively. Somehow, I'm using solid numbers, and you're consistently misrepresenting data in support of your often contradictory and biased arguments, yet you dare accuse me of BS? :rofl:

How about you start using real world numbers before you go accusing others of BS?

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6456860.html

im just saying, trying to make it out like either format is victorious is a exercise in futility. its an unrealistic perspective which only benefits a.) the people marketing the PR hype, b.) the people publishing that hype generating money off the ad revenue. stories like 300 2:1 on BD can be interesting reads if youre bored, but to try to read a trend into something at this stage in the game...; n'est-ce pas?
Click to expand...

As a great friend of mine used to say when she had a shitty night bartending: "30% of shit is shit." Of course, you have a slight point by claiming that hi-def discs are only a sliver of the market (evidently you overlooked my tongue-in-cheek post when the hi-def blogs were celebrating that hi-def disc sales overtook VHS?). However, it's pure spin on your part, because trends, simply put, matter. There are only two arguments for pro-HD people, the "attach ratio" argument, and the "irrelevance of sales gaps because DVD dominates" argument. :lol: BR is handing HD DVD its ass, and that's undeniable. Every trend marker, every bit of hype, and every market shift that you all flippantly disregard as "meaningles" or "irrelevant" (Blockbuster going BR-only, Target selling only BR players outside of the already-$180-but-hasn't-made-a-lick-of-impact 360 player) favors Blu-Ray, and there's simply no admitting (unless you're a fool) that, simply on account of their relative irrelevance in market share when compared to DVD, that the two formats are on equal footing.
 
[quote name='propeller_head']and 60% is only 10% more than 50%[/quote] Actually it's 20% more. Percentages don't "Add" like that, because they aren't "real" numbers. They're figures BASED on real numbers. Similarly, 60% is 50% more than 40%, not 20% more.

[quote name='propeller_head'] if BR didnt have that 10% HD DVD would be 50%. since there are only 2 formats. thats just simple logic.[/quote] It may be simple, but it's still wrong. I'll give you an example (actual unit numbers pulled out of my ass for illustrative purposes):

Blu-Ray sold 60,000 units in June, HD DVD sold 40,000. If Blu-Ray didn't get the 10%, the sales numbers would have been 50,000:40,000. This, as you may notice, is NOT a 50:50 split. It's a 56:44 split.

I believe you're trying to use fuzzy logic here and claim that every Blu-Ray sale lost is an HD DVD sale gained, and that's simply not the case (nor is the converse). Here's one example of why.

We know the vast majority of Blu-Ray players are PS3s. Can't tell exactly how many, but to estimate, Paramount researched the attach rates and determined that a PS3 counts as 22% of a Blu-Ray player as far as software sales are concerned. With 1.82M PS3s in the wild according to vgchartz, that means there are 400k "PS3 Blu-Ray Players", vs ~100k standalones. So 80% of all players are PS3s, effectively. If Blu-Ray sells 10,000 fewer discs, 8,000 of those lost sales are to PS3 owners. You want us to believe that if these people didn't buy said movies, they will instead go buy an HD-A2 and an HD DVD title instead.

That's simply not realistic. HDM is NOT a zero-sum game. With the exception of a small percentage of neutral titles sold to the very small percentage of dual-format owners, a sale lost on one format is NOT a sale gained on the other format. To suggest otherwise is intellectually dishonest.

[quote name='propeller_head']oh and in elections, only one person can win. in consumer electronics, monopolies are usually frowned upon.[/quote] Who's talking about a monopoly? Could Sony have gone to the courts for damages against JVC because they lost the VHS/Beta war? Did RCA have an antitrust case against Pioneer because CED didn't sell as well as LaserDisc? Can Sony sue Apple because the iPod made the MiniDisc superfluous? Does Sega have a case against Sony because the Playstation and PS2 kicked their ass two generations in a row and forced their exit from the console hardware market?

The answer to all of those are an emphatic NO, so where does the monopoly argument come from? This is what we call a red herring.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']IN THE UNITED STATES. HD DVD released in April of 2006, BR in June of 2006.[/quote] Splitting hairs, I know, but HD DVD was April 18, 2006, while Blu-Ray was May 23, 2006.

[quote name='mykevermin'] Now, the 300 DVD sales show that just over 5% of all discs sold were hi-def (3.7% of all copies of 300 were BR, 1.8% HD).[/quote] More splitting hairs. It was 4.7% of all discs sold total, with 3% being Blu-Ray and 1.7% HD DVD.

Sorry to nitpick, just want to make sure both sides are playing with accurate data. :)

Edit: changed the 2.9% Blu-Ray to 3%. Forgot to round the first time (actual numbers are 2.9897% and 1.6807%). Total is now 4.7% (from 4.6%), forgot to round that as well (actual number is 4.6686%)
 
[quote name='mykevermin']IN THE UNITED STATES. HD DVD released in April of 2006, BR in June of 2006.



Mm-hmm. I tried to be polite this time. Thanks for lowering the bar.

Now, as for "BS," it's 100% pure conjecture to call PS3 owners all "fanboys/spoiled kids/HT geeks," *particularly* when you admit as much a sentence or so later, when you (AGAIN WITH THE DATA MISREPRESENTATION! CHECK YOUR OWN CITATION OF THE ARTICLE!) claim that only 20% of PS3 owners know of the BR capacity (so they're simultaneously HT geeks and people who don't know any better? :lol:) It's 40% who are aware of BR, twice your claim. Go back and look at the article you brought up in this thread not 4-5 days ago.

Now, the 300 DVD sales show that just over 5% of all discs sold were hi-def (3.7% of all copies of 300 were BR, 1.8% HD). So, you have just under 4 and just under 2 out of every 100 copies being sold in BR and HD, respectively. Somehow, I'm using solid numbers, and you're consistently misrepresenting data in support of your often contradictory and biased arguments, yet you dare accuse me of BS? :rofl:

How about you start using real world numbers before you go accusing others of BS?



As a great friend of mine used to say when she had a shitty night bartending: "30% of shit is shit." Of course, you have a slight point by claiming that hi-def discs are only a sliver of the market (evidently you overlooked my tongue-in-cheek post when the hi-def blogs were celebrating that hi-def disc sales overtook VHS?). However, it's pure spin on your part, because trends, simply put, matter. There are only two arguments for pro-HD people, the "attach ratio" argument, and the "irrelevance of sales gaps because DVD dominates" argument. :lol: BR is handing HD DVD its ass, and that's undeniable. Every trend marker, every bit of hype, and every market shift that you all flippantly disregard as "meaningles" or "irrelevant" (Blockbuster going BR-only, Target selling only BR players outside of the already-$180-but-hasn't-made-a-lick-of-impact 360 player) favors Blu-Ray, and there's simply no admitting (unless you're a fool) that, simply on account of their relative irrelevance in market share when compared to DVD, that the two formats are on equal footing.[/quote] oh is that what youre trying to use as some sort of reverse logic? that they were both out at the same time in the US and HD is being outsold? well duh, i already went over that w/ the PS3 launch.

youre never polite who are you kidding; youre alllways the most sarcastic, condescending, self-absorbed, overconfident BS artist here & u know it.
& no its not conjecture, think about it. those people who were buying PS3s for $2 grand on eBay. what category do you believe they fall into? im guessing it will be one of those 3. theres a reason the PS3 is considered a Trojan horse. their goal was to overtake HD DVD early w/ a huge PS3 base, any1 whos been paying attention to the press since the PS3 launch knows its been under constant criticism for being overpriced & under-delivering on games. meaning the reasons & reasons not to buy one weigh in such a way that johnny sixpack isnt going to pick one up at best buy on a whim. they would have to be either emotionally involved (fanboy), a spoiled kid (2k eBay because billy stomped his foot and said NOW and mom has to be cool), or a HT geek (obviously buying it for the BD player; according to NPD about 20% of PS3 owners; or rather some % of those 20%)
20% is not a data misrepresentation. the NPD study found out of a survey of about 7k owners 40% were even aware it has BD, and of that only 1/2 had used it the past 10 times. the study's on 1up.com i think, there should be a link a couple pages back.

300 is the poster child of PS3 BD sales since it targets the exact same demographic, i already went over this. just like planet earth sold higher on HD DVD, why? because atm HD DVD is an older audience. the majority of HD HT early adopters last year bought stand alone players, most of which were HD DVD. which accounts for the large disparity between last year and this year in sales. but like i said before the PS3 effect is now. in a market so tiny the PS3s make up by far the largest player base. but its price is & will continue for the foreseeable future to be a turn off to the 99% of ppl still sitting on the DVD bench. comprende?

trends matter, IF theyre reliable. the smaller the survey pool the less reliable the figures are and the less likely they're trends. especially in something like early launch consumer electronics where the tables can be turned so easily. thats my point, 1% of a market; using DVD as a gauge, HD player sales should double every year until 2011 where it should be steady for about 2 years then decline slowly until the next format is released. thats a trend, 10 years. 6 months, not so much; electronics cant be predicted like a horse race (market demand, yes; but they would have to be the only one in the market for that trend to matter). barring penny stocks its probably one of the most flux markets there is.

[quote name='geko29']Actually it's 20% more. Percentages don't "Add" like that, because they aren't "real" numbers. They're figures BASED on real numbers. Similarly, 60% is 50% more than 40%, not 20% more.

It may be simple, but it's still wrong. I'll give you an example (actual unit numbers pulled out of my ass for illustrative purposes):

Blu-Ray sold 60,000 units in June, HD DVD sold 40,000. If Blu-Ray didn't get the 10%, the sales numbers would have been 50,000:40,000. This, as you may notice, is NOT a 50:50 split. It's a 56:44 split.

I believe you're trying to use fuzzy logic here and claim that every Blu-Ray sale lost is an HD DVD sale gained, and that's simply not the case (nor is the converse). Here's one example of why.

We know the vast majority of Blu-Ray players are PS3s. Can't tell exactly how many, but to estimate, Paramount researched the attach rates and determined that a PS3 counts as 22% of a Blu-Ray player as far as software sales are concerned. With 1.82M PS3s in the wild according to vgchartz, that means there are 400k "PS3 Blu-Ray Players", vs ~100k standalones. So 80% of all players are PS3s, effectively. If Blu-Ray sells 10,000 fewer discs, 8,000 of those lost sales are to PS3 owners. You want us to believe that if these people didn't buy said movies, they will instead go buy an HD-A2 and an HD DVD title instead.

That's simply not realistic. HDM is NOT a zero-sum game. With the exception of a small percentage of neutral titles sold to the very small percentage of dual-format owners, a sale lost on one format is NOT a sale gained on the other format. To suggest otherwise is intellectually dishonest.

Who's talking about a monopoly? Could Sony have gone to the courts for damages against JVC because they lost the VHS/Beta war? Did RCA have an antitrust case against Pioneer because CED didn't sell as well as LaserDisc? Can Sony sue Apple because the iPod made the MiniDisc superfluous? Does Sega have a case against Sony because the Playstation and PS2 kicked their ass two generations in a row and forced their exit from the console hardware market?

The answer to all of those are an emphatic NO, so where does the monopoly argument come from? This is what we call a red herring.[/quote]
if its not a real number than how can i type it on my keyboard? 60% is 10% more than 50%. that same 10% is subtracted from HD DVDs 50%. youre right that percentages arent total units sold; but theyre designed to show the distribution of sales. think of it like a pie graph, 60% is 50% encroached +10%. 10% extra on the pie graph, a 10% growth in balance. whereas HD DVD gives up the SAME 10%.

as for the if they dont buy on one format theyll buy on the other; thats entirely unpredictable. lots of people have both and buy whatevers cheapest or has the features they want. thats my POINT though, and why the balance of the pie chart is anything but steady & why the distribution is more accurately portrayed as a percentage of a whole market, as opposed to a percentage of the competition inside a market a mere percent of where it will historically end up.

sony could have gone to the courts, sure; but they would have lost. thats beside the point, theres a reason the EU is looking into BR in an anti-trust probe. because monopolistic practices are anti-capitalistic and frowned upon (in most of the world anyway). just look at all the shit MS has had to deal w/ re: windows; and thats not even a literal monopoly.
 
yea they announced it a couple months ago. cheap yes, but kinda pointless for a computer since it cant write to it; and to play movies you already need a new HDCP vid card, high end cpu, good quality surround audio card, lots of ram, windows, and a program to play it. if you already have all that stuff, then yes cheap; kinda. still though, its even more expensive than a stand alone HD DVD player.
 
So I'd probably need an upgrade, even if my old computer can play 720p video files?

(and yeah, I'd never get a BD reader for the computer, i want a writer)
 
[quote name='propeller_head']oh is that what youre trying to use as some sort of reverse logic? that they were both out at the same time in the US and HD is being outsold? well duh, i already went over that w/ the PS3 launch.[/quote]

*sigh* What I said is this; I'll break it down into bite-sized chunks for your palate.

1) OVERALL BR/HD sales ratio, per the NPD data you linked, is 60/40 in favor of BR.
2) 2007 YEAR TO DATE sales ratio is 66/33 in favor of BR.
3) GIVEN THAT #2 IS LARGER THAN #1, BUT THAT #1 IS INCLUSIVE OF #2, IT IS MATHEMATICALLY NECESSARY FOR THE HD/BR SALES RATIO PRIOR TO #2 TO BE MORE IN HD DVD'S FAVOR.

Christ you're thick. And I *was* being polite, but fuck you now.

youre never polite who are you kidding; youre alllways the most sarcastic, condescending, self-absorbed, overconfident BS artist here & u know it.
& no its not conjecture, think about it.
Click to expand...

You forgot handsome, dashing, and daring. By the way, if you have to type out "think about it," chances are bloody likely it's conjecture.

those people who were buying PS3s for $2 grand on eBay. what category do you believe they fall into? im guessing it will be one of those 3.
Click to expand...

Did Sony sell every single PS3 in the three days following 11/17 and not a one since then? Don't you remember the great PS3 crash of 11/20? When there were piles in stores, unsold, and eBay sales bottomed out at right at MSRP? And, admittedly, "guessing" is another way of saying "I've got nothing to back this up and I'm just talking out of my ass," which is, coincidentally enough, the verbatim definition for "conjecture" in the mykevermin revised standard English dictionary (7th ed.).

I'd say, if we can draw any conclusions, that PS3 owners fall into a "gamer" category. That's about all I can be confident of.

theres a reason the PS3 is considered a Trojan horse. their goal was to overtake HD DVD early w/ a huge PS3 base, any1 whos been paying attention to the press since the PS3 launch knows its been under constant criticism for being overpriced & under-delivering on games. meaning the reasons & reasons not to buy one weigh in such a way that johnny sixpack isnt going to pick one up at best buy on a whim.
Click to expand...

And they succeeded in taking over HD DVD, didn't they? ;)

they would have to be either emotionally involved (fanboy), a spoiled kid (2k eBay because billy stomped his foot and said NOW and mom has to be cool), or a HT geek (obviously buying it for the BD player; according to NPD about 20% of PS3 owners; or rather some % of those 20%)
20% is not a data misrepresentation. the NPD study found out of a survey of about 7k owners 40% were even aware it has BD, and of that only 1/2 had used it the past 10 times. the study's on 1up.com i think, there should be a link a couple pages back.
Click to expand...

*sigh* I like how you extrapolate "last 10 times" to mean "never used it for BR at fucking all." I hope you don't handle data for a living, because you're exhibiting the most pisspoor attempt at defending being wrong I've ever seen. GizmoGC admits he's a troll, so I don't believe he stands behind anything that he says. David Brooks is a bullshit artist, but he covers his tracks. You, on the other hand, look like a kid trying to cover up a hole in the wall (your being incorrect about BR usage) with scotch tape and pink construction paper (this "last 10 uses" nonsense).

You know who's not watched a BR in the last 10 times they had their PS3 on? This dashing mofo right here. You know how many BR movies I own? 14-17 (maybe more, I dunno). It's not a perfect measure; we can't assume that those 20% who did not use it for BR in the last 10 times don't own any BR movies just as we can't assume they *DO* own BR movies. Look at what the data say, don't tell the data what to say. All right, toots?

300 is the poster child of PS3 BD sales since it targets the exact same demographic, i already went over this. just like planet earth sold higher on HD DVD, why? because atm HD DVD is an older audience. the majority of HD HT early adopters last year bought stand alone players, most of which were HD DVD. which accounts for the large disparity between last year and this year in sales. but like i said before the PS3 effect is now. in a market so tiny the PS3s make up by far the largest player base. but its price is & will continue for the foreseeable future to be a turn off to the 99% of ppl still sitting on the DVD bench. comprende?
Click to expand...

95%.

As for the "300 is for insecure nerdy Macho Man Randy Savage motherfucker PS3 owners, not for those sophisticatos who own HD DVD lookin' for The 40-Year Old Virgin and Hot Fuzz some Ingmar Bergman classics" argument, fuck you. I've already point out that 300 sales are in *ABSOLUTE LOCKSTEP* with the overall sales ratio for the year for BR and HD. 300 sales were totally average. 66% of sales went to BR, and 34% to HD - which says something for HD DVD, since it is $4 more expensive at Amazon (combo disc), and as much as $10 more at retail (that was the difference at Target yesterday). So you, and everyone else, shut yer pie holes over 300. "Your people" and "our people" adopted the thing at the exact same rate for the year, so it is not an indicator of anything, except the trends at which people buy BR movies over HD movies.

trends matter, IF theyre reliable. the smaller the survey pool the less reliable the figures are and the less likely they're trends. especially in something like early launch consumer electronics where the tables can be turned so easily. thats my point, 1% of a market; using DVD as a gauge, HD player sales should double every year until 2011 where it should be steady for about 2 years then decline slowly until the next format is released. thats a trend, 10 years. 6 months, not so much; electronics cant be predicted like a horse race (market demand, yes; but they would have to be the only one in the market for that trend to matter). barring penny stocks its probably one of the most flux markets there is.
Click to expand...

:lol: I was listening to Rush Limbaugh today, who was arguing that a particular public opinion poll was bunk, bogus, unreliable, and so on and so forth; moments later, he cited a poll that suggested something favorable to his agenda. :lol: This is no different. You don't like the fact that *EVERY* indicator shows BR pulling ahead, and that there is no good news for HD, save for the fact that there is no bad news for HD. If we waited 10 years to analyze data before making market predicitons, we would come to realize that we have encountered the market on its deathbed. :lol:

6 months is surely a trend - its double the time frame that most fads arise and die in (thankfully), and those trends over 6 months are reliable indicators. Let me make a predicition based on almost 9 months of trends: Next week, August 19-August 25th, there will be 2 BR movies sold for every 1 HD DVD movie. Care to wager against me? ;) I'll buy you a $20 HD DVD if HD DVD videos outsell Blu-Ray by a 2-1 margin in the coming week (as long as you're game). I'm not kidding. Your call, Mr. 6 Months isn't a trend.

Do you think that, during that week, HD DVD will spontaneously outsell Blu-Ray? :rofl:

if its not a real number than how can i type it on my keyboard? 60% is 10% more than 50%. that same 10% is subtracted from HD DVDs 50%. youre right that percentages arent total units sold; but theyre designed to show the distribution of sales. think of it like a pie graph, 60% is 50% encroached +10%. 10% extra on the pie graph, a 10% growth in balance. whereas HD DVD gives up the SAME 10%.
Click to expand...

Oh my. You're a child. I thought you understood mathematics. If I have to offer you any advice in life, don't ever read about Neal Boortz's "fair tax." You'll get suckered in by that shell game in a heartbeat.
 
That's an interesting point, I haven't played a BD in perhaps my last 20 power ons, but I own more than 14 BDs and bought one last week.
I just don't have time to watch them right away.

Data am skewed.
 
Will people please stop using the "Hi-Def still doesn't compare to DVD sales argument". This is the "Format War HD-DVD VS Blu-ray Thread." Meaning HD-DVD VS Blu-ray Not (Blu-ray vs HD-DVD) vs DVD. The reason it's so low is becasue people are extremely afraid to invest in a format when there is no winner yet. Once that happens we will see it change. And This is the year that will make or break both formats, and so far Blu-ray is dominating, with the 2:1 advantage.
 
[quote name='mykevermin']*sigh* What I said is this; I'll break it down into bite-sized chunks for your palate.

1) OVERALL BR/HD sales ratio, per the NPD data you linked, is 60/40 in favor of BR.
2) 2007 YEAR TO DATE sales ratio is 66/33 in favor of BR.
3) GIVEN THAT #2 IS LARGER THAN #1, BUT THAT #1 IS INCLUSIVE OF #2, IT IS MATHEMATICALLY NECESSARY FOR THE HD/BR SALES RATIO PRIOR TO #2 TO BE MORE IN HD DVD'S FAVOR.

Christ you're thick. And I *was* being polite, but you now.
[/quote] annnnnd? whats the
point of this exactly? besides just pointing out the obvious.

You forgot handsome, dashing, and daring. By the way, if you have to type out "think about it," chances are bloody likely it's conjecture.
Click to expand...
well i have no idea if youre handsome, dashing, or daring. all i have is an avatar of a wrestler to go on. & even if you were, i wouldnt be calling you any of that . you are however all of the things i mentioned previously. fluff, i know youve heard that before.

Did Sony sell every single PS3 in the three days following 11/17 and not a one since then? Don't you remember the great PS3 crash of 11/20? When there were piles in stores, unsold, and eBay sales bottomed out at right at MSRP? And, admittedly, "guessing" is another way of saying "I've got nothing to back this up and I'm just talking out of my ass," which is, coincidentally enough, the verbatim definition for "conjecture" in the mykevermin revised standard English dictionary (7th ed.).


I'd say, if we can draw any conclusions, that PS3 owners fall into a "gamer" category. That's about all I can be confident of.
Click to expand...
well i was using NPD's study on HD awareness as a basis, so no its not based on conjecture. those eBay buyers were meant to be a illustration, not a primary focus; its supposed to exacerbate the personality types so they're more visible in your imagination. if you need a thesis to back up common sense, everything's going to be conjecture to you.

And they succeeded in taking over HD DVD, didn't they?
Click to expand...
yes, as ive said a million times the PS3 has ballooned BD sales in conjunction w/ Sony & Foxs accelerated push-out of movies. HOWEVER, as i keep going back to & no1 seems to acknowledge for more than 1 post; that ballooned number of players is still TINY compared to its respective market. and the PS3s price barrier prevents it from being taken seriously by the average joe for a movie player, most people think $9 is too much to see for a movie. so while the PS3 effect is large now, as a whole; like ive said before, i think its under-performing. as long as HD DVD can keep its prices decreasing, as soon as the $300 price barrier is breached on HDTVs you can expect a growing swing to HD formats. and that translates to lost DVD sales and DVD plants w/ the need to make something (HD DVD). that means more HD DVD production lines, and more price competition; more enticement for studio support.

*sigh* I like how you extrapolate "last 10 times" to mean "never used it for BR at ing all." I hope you don't handle data for a living, because you're exhibiting the most pisspoor attempt at defending being wrong I've ever seen. GizmoGC admits he's a troll, so I don't believe he stands behind anything that he says. David Brooks is a bullshit artist, but he covers his tracks. You, on the other hand, look like a kid trying to cover up a hole in the wall (your being incorrect about BR usage) with scotch tape and pink construction paper (this "last 10 uses" nonsense).

You know who's not watched a BR in the last 10 times they had their PS3 on? This dashing mofo right here. You know how many BR movies I own? 14-17 (maybe more, I dunno). It's not a perfect measure; we can't assume that those 20% who did not use it for BR in the last 10 times don't own any BR movies just as we can't assume they *DO* own BR movies. Look at what the data say, don't tell the data what to say. All right, toots?
Click to expand...
if youre going to use quotes, you should actually quote. i never said that; i said only 20% even use it as player. the last 10 times is accurate to that. if some1 bought a PS3 and played the movie it came with, but thats all they ever watched; it would be a LOT higher and a lot more INaccurate. watching taledega nights or casino royale once or twice doesnt make you a supporter of a format. but i suppose youre more adept at conducting accurate studies than NPD, right?

95%.

As for the "300 is for insecure nerdy Macho Man Randy Savage motherer PS3 owners, not for those sophisticatos who own HD DVD lookin' for The 40-Year Old Virgin and Hot Fuzz some Ingmar Bergman classics" argument, you. I've already point out that 300 sales are in *ABSOLUTE LOCKSTEP* with the overall sales ratio for the year for BR and HD. 300 sales were totally average. 66% of sales went to BR, and 34% to HD - which says something for HD DVD, since it is $4 more expensive at Amazon (combo disc), and as much as $10 more at retail (that was the difference at Target yesterday). So you, and everyone else, shut yer pie holes over 300. "Your people" and "our people" adopted the thing at the exact same rate for the year, so it is not an indicator of anything, except the trends at which people buy BR movies over HD movies.
Click to expand...
i was talking about the 99% of people who still buy DVDs in general. not the 95% of people who bought 300 on DVD.
and i can see i touched a nerve when i pointed out that the PS3s demographic is younger. its still the truth though. and no 300 sales were not lockstep with other titles, 300 sales were lock step w/ TOTAL sales; the fact that BD has had a more aggressive release schedule making up for last year and trying to exacerbate the PS3 effect is what makes it lockstep w/ ALL movies COMBINED on average since jan. more movies for sale = more movie sales.

I was listening to Rush Limbaugh today, who was arguing that a particular public opinion poll was bunk, bogus, unreliable, and so on and so forth; moments later, he cited a poll that suggested something favorable to his agenda. This is no different. You don't like the fact that *EVERY* indicator shows BR pulling ahead, and that there is no good news for HD, save for the fact that there is no bad news for HD. If we waited 10 years to analyze data before making market predicitons, we would come to realize that we have encountered the market on its deathbed.
Click to expand...
you spelled predictions wrong.
so you dont like Rush Limbaugh, not many people do. hes an ahole, just like you. i dont CARE ENOUGH honestly to try to spin anything. im just trying to put it in perspective since nobody else seems to be doing that. nothing ive said is false, all youre doing is arguing semantics. just because you cant KNOW how something will turn out doesnt mean that ANY prediction based on ANY small amount of data will be even close to conclusive. thats not what you seem to want to think & what im trying to drill into your stubborn fanboy head.

6 months is surely a trend - its double the time frame that most fads arise and die in (thankfully), and those trends over 6 months are reliable indicators. Let me make a predicition based on almost 9 months of trends: Next week, August 19-August 25th, there will be 2 BR movies sold for every 1 HD DVD movie. Care to wager against me? I'll buy you a $20 HD DVD if HD DVD videos outsell Blu-Ray by a 2-1 margin in the coming week (as long as you're game). I'm not kidding. Your call, Mr. 6 Months isn't a trend.

Do you think that, during that week, HD DVD will spontaneously outsell Blu-Ray?
Click to expand...
you spelled prediction wrong.
DVD is a 15 year format w/ its primary life being 10 years. BD & HD DVD are the same, 6 months is NOT a trend indicative of what a market at 1% penetration will look like at even 10% penetration, much less 100%. thats reality. look at VHS & Beta, even after 7 years beta still had movies being released for it in the US. it only lost because a) the cost of making the tapes was more and b) because people wanted to record their fav tv shows and they held 1/2 the amount of time. the higher cost could be equated to the combo discs, but ive read that they're stopping combo discs. it could also be equated to the cost of building BD plant as opposed to just modifying assembly lines on existing DVD plants. as for recording TV, tivo killed that a long time ago. re: your "bet", you can use it to roughly guess what the VERY next week will be based on the EXACT same market conditions which existed the previous week IF the movie release schedule is the same. you CANT use it to predict what it will be like in 2k8 much less 2k11 when penetration should saturate. tell me, what does this "Trend" tell you the market conditions will be 1 year from now? does it take into account the 10 million HD DVD drives going into toshiba laptops next year too? or the cheap HD DVD player coming to Wal-Mart? or any change in contract conditions or licencing fees?

Oh my. You're a child. I thought you understood mathematics. If I have to offer you any advice in life, don't ever read about Neal Boortz's "fair tax." You'll get suckered in by that shell game in a heartbeat.
Click to expand...
yes, im just a poor child w/ an MBA from Wharton who doesnt understand basic math & business. as for your book ref, i know it has nothing to do w/ me or the topic (you should know that considering the thread i did on moyers). ill just hit ya back w/ one of my fav quotes
"There are two motives for reading a book: one, that you enjoy it; the other, that you can boast about it."
- Bertrand Russell
 
[quote name='H.Cornerstone']Will people please stop using the "Hi-Def still doesn't compare to DVD sales argument". This is the "Format War HD-DVD VS Blu-ray Thread." Meaning HD-DVD VS Blu-ray Not (Blu-ray vs HD-DVD) vs DVD. The reason it's so low is becasue people are extremely afraid to invest in a format when there is no winner yet. Once that happens we will see it change. And This is the year that will make or break both formats, and so far Blu-ray is dominating, with the 2:1 advantage.[/quote]
actually the format war has increased the pace at which both formats are being adopted. so that argument is wrong.

and the HD discs are part of the same market as DVD; video discs. the same people who are buying DVDs will be buying HD discs when HDTVs and/or HD players are cheap enough. so it is an important factor in considering the relative importance/signifigance of any 'war' conditions.
 
[quote name='dallow']That's an interesting point, I haven't played a BD in perhaps my last 20 power ons, but I own more than 14 BDs and bought one last week.
I just don't have time to watch them right away.

Data am skewed.[/quote]
also take into consideration that even now where the large majority of PS3 owners are early adopters, only 40% know it has BD. now early adopters psychologically will try to take full advantage & will usually research first a purchase like that. but the real question is, can it keep price drops close enough to stand alone players? there are a bunch coming out the end of this year and early next year, and you can only expect more features & lower prices. however the PS3s main demographic (the people still playing PS2), will eventually pick it up inevitably.

its really going to be interesting seeing how the players/prices/sales progress next year. BD will undoubtedly win disc sales this year, but player sales might get a big boost for HD DVD come holiday season, courtesy of china.

they love BG in china, its almost scary
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/news/2007/05/chairmangates
chairmangates.jpg
 
[quote name='H.Cornerstone']This is the "Format War HD-DVD VS Blu-ray Thread." Meaning HD-DVD VS Blu-ray Not (Blu-ray vs HD-DVD) vs DVD.[/QUOTE]

You automatically win at the Internet because you used algebra in that sentence.
 
[quote name='redgopher']You automatically win at the Internet because you used algebra in that sentence.[/quote]

Nice, I am kind of surprised your the only one that noticed, and I always complained I would never use Math in real life, and my teacher said I would. Guess I was wrong.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
bread's done
Back
Top