[quote name='wildcpac']Posada has some of the best hitting seasons for a catcher following the age of 33 outside of Fisk. Isn't 33-35 the falloff cliff for all catchers?
HR's, RBI's, Batting and OPS Plus
33, 97, .277, 122 at 34
20, 90, .338, 153 at 35
22, 81, .285, 133 at 37
Couple of points. Posada didn't play catcher until his early 20's and wasn't a full time player until he was 26. The majority of great catchers all came up in the early 20's into MLB. Posada has the extra 5 years which has carried him well into his mid to late 30's. Mauer does appear to be a freak of nature.[/QUOTE]
Mauer has already caught 5300 big league innings; Posada didn't hit that mark until he was 30. I've got to think that Mauer will see more and more time at DH/1B and less at C starting even this season, otherwise the Twins are looking to get about 140 full games tops out of him per year.
Aside from wear and tear, here's what I'd be most concerned about with Mauer and his contract:
Age, season, BABIP, OPS, IsoP, BB%, K%, LD%, FB%, HR/FB%,
23, 2006, .364, .936, .159, 13.0, 10.4, 24.9, 25.8, 10.8
24, 2007, .319, .808, .133, 12.1, 12.6, 17.9, 27.6, 7.2
25, 2008, .342, .864, .123, 13.3, 9.3, 22.6, 28.3, 6.5
26, 2009, .373, 1.031, .222, 12.5, 12.0, 22.6, 29.5, 20.4
2007 just seems to be a fluke down year, so I won't put much stock into that one. His walk and strikeout rates have been pretty steady and don't really show regression or progression, his line drive rate is solid and steady, and his fly ball percentage is ticking up. It's pretty obvious he's a good hitter, and his four year run of BABIP suggests he can maintain a .320+ clip. What I'm getting to, and what is mind-bogglingly bizarre, is that he went from rubbing elbows with Mark Ellis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Todd Helton, Shannon Stewart, Brian Giles, Randy Wynn, and Brendan Harris in HR/FB% in 2007/2008 to sitting between Adam Dunn and Albert freaking Pujols in 2009.
He was 4th in MLB in BABIP, which kept his average extremely high, and had an obscene spike in HR/FB% last season, which shot his power numbers up. While he's shown that he can sustain a high BABIP (if not quite .373), he's going to need to keep his HR/FB% near 20% for him to put up numbers that would justify paying him $23 mil a year through his age 34 season.
I just don't see it happening.