Looks like the sweet spot after the first 2 days is around 35k to 50k to win a standard auction. I'm at 28k right now after buying 17 Gamer Packs -- clearing out the stock at the Wal-Marts around me that I know carry them. I asked if they were restocking and, as I figured, they said they don't know/maybe later this week. I'm going to stick to buying them until I get around 40k.
If things keep looking like they do, I'm sure we'll start to see most winnings in the 30k to 40k range later. Doubt we'll see any lower though.