What we're going to be dealing with, and it's become prevalent in this generation, is the death of THIRD PARTY exclusivity. Let's be fair, as games become more and more costly to develop, companies are looking to recoup their investment as easily and quickly as possible. Let's look at right now and take the best example... GTA4. That amazing first day sales record? The huge volumes of games moving? Never would've happened if had launched only on the PS3. Surely it would've spurred on some PS3 sales, but it still would've taken Rockstar much longer to make that kind of money.
If anything, what we'll be moving towards, as much as I hate it... is the GTA4 formula. It launches on both, and then console manufacturers will pay out the ass for exclusive content for their respective system. THAT will be the new third party exclusivity. The games will all be there... but you get to decide which one you get based on the content. Just look at Soul Calibur 4... instead of being on only one console, they just have the exclusive characters. As much as I hate that that's where it's headed, I guarantee that's where we're going to end up.
Just from a cost standpoint, it's no longer effective to make a third party game exclusive, unless the console paid out a TON of money. Whether you admit it or not, it's insane to deny that MGS4 would've done WAY bigger numbers for Konami had it launched multi-platform. I don't say I agree that it should have, just that there's no denying it.
So, that's my take on things. Consoles will have exclusive first party games, and third party exclusivity will go the way of the dodo, replaced by exclusive content paid for by the console manufacturers. Look at most of the big third party franchises from yester-year... how many HAVEN'T gone multi-platform? Off the top of my head, looking at ones that HAVE: Resident Evil, Silent Hill, Devil May Cry, Grand Theft Auto, WWF Smackdown... these are some of the heaviest hitters of the last few generations, all now 100% multi-platform AFTER having been exclusive to one console (or, in some cases, MORE than one). RE, in particular, is interesting simply because they had gone ahead and signed an agreement with the least popular console of the last generation... and then very quickly realized what a mistake it was. They did everything they could to get out of it when they realized how great RE4 (lightning in a bottle) was. Now, if they had left RE4 on JUST the Cube, how much money would Capcom have missed out on? It's just good business.
Agree with me, disagree with me... that's just the way I see things. Third party exclusives, as much as I personally hate it, are an antiquated system and will disappear sooner rather than later.