“PS3 in Danger of Dying” Crowd Debunked

[quote name='Malik112099']Do you even bother to read this shit out loud before you click the "Submit Reply" button?[/quote]

I think you need to not take things so seriously dude. :roll:
 
[quote name='Thomas96']A good PS3 game will sell on PS3, but it has to be good, Lair was horrible, and Haze was subpar, being an FPS - that's a tough market to succeed in, because there's so much competition.[/quote]
A game wont sell just because its good. I think former employees of Clover can attest to that. It has to have marketing power behind it. People need to know about it. People that also happen to own the console.

Hell, the Shin Megami Tensei games rate well and have never broken 100k in the US, and not much better in Japan. Valkyria Chronicles is currently not much more than 100k US+Japan.

You can have a niche game that is great. The problem at that point is that you're not going to get good sales in any scenario. The question then changes to how much did it cost? A great game should be able to survive by selling to a niche of 100k. That means that you have $5 million of revenue at the $50 price point that needs to go into all of these areas:
gamecost.png


Valkyria Chronicles is a good game. But I dont currently see a scenario in which it doesnt lose money.
 
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Lair and Haze certainly cost too much. Midway might be the only other huge failure story due to HD development. Stranglehold really hurt them and i'm not sure they'll be able to recover.
 
[quote name='jer7583']What competition did it have at the time on PS3?[/QUOTE]

None, because there are no games on the PS3.

Lol, amirite?
 
[quote name='Dr Mario Kart']A game wont sell just because its good. I think former employees of Clover can attest to that. It has to have marketing power behind it. People need to know about it. People that also happen to own the console.

Hell, the Shin Megami Tensei games rate well and have never broken 100k in the US, and not much better in Japan. Valkyria Chronicles is currently not much more than 100k US+Japan.

You can have a niche game that is great. The problem at that point is that you're not going to get good sales in any scenario. The question then changes to how much did it cost? A great game should be able to survive by selling to a niche of 100k. That means that you have $5 million of revenue at the $50 price point that needs to go into all of these areas:
gamecost.png
[/QUOTE]


Lair definitely saved some money on the design of the game, I guess they decided to use Rogue Squadron missions to save money on game design?
 
[quote name='jer7583']Most thngs the sony defense force says are.

Whoknows is a fanboy. If not of Sony, than of werehogs. That should answer any questions you have about him.[/QUOTE]
You're just bitter because you don't get to enjoy HOME
 
[quote name='mykevermin']None, because there are no games on the PS3.

Lol, amirite?[/QUOTE]

Now we're speaking the same language.

Sarcasm - always the white flag in any arguement. Good day, sir.
 
I agree with Dr. Mario Kart. Even if your game is great it won't necessarily sell well. Valkyrie Chronicles should be selling like hot cakes, but even at Wal-Mart where they got in over a dozen copies, amazing reviews, and good word of mouth the game is lucky to break 100k at this point.

It seems at least in the US, Western RPG is more of the way to go. Hell, even Two Worlds sold 390k.

Honestly It's not worth going exclusive with the 360 unless your backed by MS or a "console" exclusive similiar to Mass Effect and bioshock where you can have the PC market to fall on for a cheaper more direct port and another market to appeal to. How many PS3 exclusives are found on the PC?
 
[quote name='Monsta Mack']How many PS3 exclusives are found on the PC?[/quote]

I would say zero without even trying to think about it. If a PS3 game is ported over to PC (aka Windows) there is nothing keeping it off of an Xbox 360.
 
[quote name='Monsta Mack']I agree with Dr. Mario Kart. Even if your game is great it won't necessarily sell well. Valkyrie Chronicles should be selling like hot cakes, but even at Wal-Mart where they got in over a dozen copies, amazing reviews, and good word of mouth the game is lucky to break 100k at this point.[/QUOTE]

This is pure speculation on my part, but I think it would have, but Sega put it out at the worst possible time with the worst imaginable marketing. I simply can't keep up with the number of released on the PS3, let alone all three consoles right now. I haven't bought some titles as a result: Valkyria Chronicles and Resistance 2 among them. The latter I can wait for a substantial price drop, but I really do want VC. I simply don't have time amongst the other games I'm playing.

If that came out the coming spring (too close to next fiscal year, yeah yeah) during the "drought" we typically experience, it would be much more noticeable than it was. In my experience, only those who really follow the gaming industry know about it, know what it is, and know that it's out. It was, to be honest, quite quietly released to stores, and was released during the big fall release season.

Would it be a 500,000+ seller if not buried by other titles? Likely not. But it was the victim of "I want this title at this other title's expense" syndrome, by and large.

I still really want it, and am curious if it had such a low print run that it will disappear from store shelves before it drops in price. That's going to guide my purchase of it.
 
[quote name='Malik112099']I would say zero without even trying to think about it. If a PS3 game is ported over to PC (aka Windows) there is nothing keeping it off of an Xbox 360.[/QUOTE]

DC Universe is all I can think of.
 
Time of year of release didn't help VC, but it wouldn't have sold well period. SRPGs are just small niche genre. Outside of the Final Fantasy Tactics games (which sell because of the FF name) none of them that I can recall have sold big numbers.
 
I agree with dmaul. SRPGS are a very niche genre. You do have to realize that the ADD-addled youth of America don't want to play anything but Call of Duty.
 
The whole anime thing, the name, the platform, and the lack of marketing for Valkyria guaranteed it would stay a niche title.

Seriously, releasing a japanese style, hand drawn game named "valkyria chronicles" (What the fuck does this even mean to anyone?) on Playstation 3 exclusively and then not telling anyone about it..

They had to see it coming. Regardless of quality, that was never going to break out of the small niche it was meant for. Nothing wrong with that, unless your paychecks are signed by Sega.
 
[quote name='depascal22']I agree with dmaul. SRPGS are a very niche genre. You do have to realize that the ADD-addled youth of America don't want to play anything but Call of Duty.[/QUOTE]

OMG THIS. SO THIS.

My brother (11, 12 in February) just seems to only play FPS. Not that there's anything wrong with the genre, but it's really the only genre he plays.

Whenever he comes over my apt and wants to play something...there's never anything he really wants to play, OR, I never have anything that holds his attention for more then 30-60minutes.
 
I'm happy they make the niche titles also but I don't understand it from an economic standpoint. Maybe they just throw a bone to the hardcore crowd for their continued support.
 
^ Because Guitar Hero was a 'niche title' when it released. Red Octane published it themselves, IIRC, and not Activision. I'll have to go look at my original copy.
 
[quote name='jer7583']Seriously, releasing a japanese style, hand drawn game named "valkyria chronicles" (What the fuck does this even mean to anyone?)[/quote]
Really, that is an incredibly lame name for a game to be saddled with. "Valkyria" doesn't mean anything outside of the game's lore, and "chronicles" aside from just being bland, incorrectly implies that the game is a sequel/spinoff or otherwise part of a larger franchise (reminds me of titles like "Chronicles of Riddick" or "Final Fantasy Chronicles").

The original title that was being circulated when the game was first announced, "Valkyrie of the Battlefield," was snappier, more descriptive, and just all around better. I'd like to know what idiot decided to drop it in favor of "Valkyria Chronicles."
 
Yeah, Guitar Hero was a crazy success. No one cared about it at first. Very low initial sales.[quote name='Ryuukishi']Really, that is an incredibly lame name for a game to be saddled with. "Valkyria" doesn't mean anything outside of the game's lore, and "chronicles" aside from just being bland, incorrectly implies that the game is a sequel/spinoff or otherwise part of a larger franchise (reminds me of titles like "Chronicles of Riddick" or "Final Fantasy Chronicles").

The original title that was being circulated when the game was first announced, "Valkyrie of the Battlefield," was snappier, more descriptive, and just all around better. I'd like to know what idiot decided to drop it in favor of "Valkyria Chronicles."[/quote]Probably the same idiot who decided change development of the game from 360 and moved it to PS3.
:shakes fist:
 
[quote name='dmaul1114']Time of year of release didn't help VC, but it wouldn't have sold well period. SRPGs are just small niche genre. Outside of the Final Fantasy Tactics games (which sell because of the FF name) none of them that I can recall have sold big numbers.[/QUOTE]

That and Disagea. Yea so only 2 SRPG been successful.


But really VC is not going to be a huge success no matter what system or date of release due to low demand in the gene.

I also wont be shock if they avoided the title "Valkyrie of the Battlefield" because of potential problem from the Tom Cruise movie.
 
Valkyria Chronicles does kind of smack of "here's two darts; throw them at the RPG name-o-matic, I mean dartboard," doesn't it?

EDIT: Like "White Knight Chronicles," or "Tales of _____," "Lost Odyssey," etc. It's symptomatic of the genre. But don't discount the name as being problematic to its sales, if any of y'all are suggesting that. Stronger marketing (I didn't know shit of the gameplay until I tried the demo) and a more selective release date would have significantly helped it.

Ask Sony why they didn't release Killzone this year. ;)
 
The weird name definately didn't help but changing it in the middle of development was really dumb. It would've been better to ride on the publicity of Tom Cruise's movie (no matter how bad it is) since VC takes place in roughly the same time.

They could've marketed the hell out of the game but people would still only buy Call of Duty, Rock Band 2, and Guitar Hero World Tour. It's just too niche. Disgaea is the flagship SRPG for the PS3 and it didn't do well. Why were they expecting VC to do better?
 
Were they expecting it to do better? They knew it wouldn't be a blockbuster.
I'm glad it was even localized. I wonder if we'll still get the DLC like Japan has.

I only hope they recoup their dev costs in worldwide sales. Or at least most of it.
They should be very proud of that game.

Really changed up the stagnant SRPG genre.
 
[quote name='62t']
But really VC is not going to be a huge success no matter what system or date of release due to low demand in the gene.
[/QUOTE]

Yeah, sales would suck anywhere, but at least if it had been a PS2 or DS game the development costs would have been lower so it would have to sell fewer copies to turn a profit.

As for SRPGs, I've never been able to get into the genre. Too slow paced for me. Battles take too long and it sucks to keep doing them over if you keep dying toward the end of them. Add in I've never liked JPRG style turn based combat and the lengthy battles in these games just kill them for me. Maybe VC is different as I haven't played it, but Final Fantasy Tactics and a couple others I tried just didn't do it for me at all.

But what do I know since I don't like much other than FPS and western RPGs. *shrugs*
 
[quote name='depascal22']I don't know if they printed enough copies to turn a profit. I haven't been able to find it anywhere around here.[/QUOTE]

That doesn't make any sense. So why go through the expense of localizing and distribution if there isn't a chance to make some money? Good will and publicity?

VC is not going to sell a million copies, but it will continue to sell steadily throughout the game's lifetime. Once the holiday rush has passed and people start to look for new games to play during the usual yearly drought, those who do research will say, "Hey -- what's this Valkyria Chronciles that's gotten really good ratings?" PS3 exclusives, from my understanding, sell well and steadily despite being full price (ex. Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, and Ratchet & Clank).

Sega didn't make a mistake releasing this game during the holiday rush. They decided it'd be better to start selling to game now to get a return on their investment sooner rather than later. Would they have sold more had they waited till the fall? Who knows. But Sega put more value and getting money now, and not waiting until there was a chance their sales could be higher by releasing it at a later date. Had they waited, the crowd of other top quality games would continue to get more crowded thereby reducing the potential number of buyers (like when God of War III, Killzone 2, and Uncharted 2 come out).

People's perception of "success" has become skewed, I believe, by such blockbuster titles as Zelda, Halo, and Final Fantasy. Since when did selling 250,000 over the lifetime of a game mean it's a failure so long as it turns a profit?

And even though the videogame itself may not be selling gangbusters, Sega has successfully made Valkyria Chronicles into a franchise. There are toys, manga, and soon-to-be-released anime in Japan (which will be co-developed by Sony). As such, there are additional avenues of revenue for Sega to make money off of this IP. I personally will gladly spend more money on quality Valkyria Chronicles products because I enjoy the IP and want to support non-derivative game play worlds.

Then people who complain about "WTF does Valkyria Chronciles mean?" Well, then WTF does Halo mean -- is that a game about angels? What about Gears of War mean -- is that about a bunch of machines running around blowing each other up? What about Pikmin -- sounds like vegetables or some sort of spice. What about Too Human, or Resident Evil, the list goes on. Consumers have to do research to look past all these ridiculous titles and actually see what the game's about.

Certainly, Sega could have done more publicity. But look what we're doing -- we're talking about their game for the past page of posts. There are multiple forums across the internet saying "Valkyria Chronicles is the sleeper hit that no one is playing and it's a crime." Well guess what, we're doing Sega's advertising for them by word of mouth and we're doing it for free.
 
[quote name='Ecofreak']
VC is not going to sell a million copies, but it will continue to sell steadily throughout the game's lifetime. Once the holiday rush has passed and people start to look for new games to play during the usual yearly drought, those who do research will say, "Hey -- what's this Valkyria Chronciles that's gotten really good ratings?" PS3 exclusives, from my understanding, sell well and steadily despite being full price (ex. Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, and Ratchet & Clank).[/quote]
Just what is this based on? I'd like to see some evidence that doesnt include bundles. Most games following the traditional software sales model will not have legs. The vast majority of lifetime sales happen within the first month or two. Hell, the first week's sales dont even get surpassed by the entire following 4 weeks, thats how frontloaded game sales are. Thats how fast the decline is.
 
[quote name='Dr Mario Kart']Just what is this based on? I'd like to see some evidence that doesnt include bundles. Most games following the traditional software sales model will not have legs. The vast majority of lifetime sales happen within the first month or two. Hell, the first week's sales dont even get surpassed by the entire following 4 weeks, thats how frontloaded game sales are. Thats how fast the decline is.[/QUOTE]

I only have VGChartz as a source (and we all know how suspect these figures are), so take them with a grain of salt (these are all worldwide sales):

Resistance 1: 3.45 million (Never released in a bundle, to my knowledge)
Japan US Europe Total
Week 1 14,955 42,483 184,820 242,258
Week 2 9,134 38,753 67,308 115,195
Week 3 7,000 45,101 40,707 92,808
Week 4 6,414 51,897 27,977 86,288
Week 5 7,214 58,039 22,890 88,143
Week 6 8,987 60,107 18,312 87,406
Week 7 11,087 48,670 12,818 72,575
Week 8 12,213 33,607 12,456 58,276
Week 9 14,649 32,008 12,082 58,739
Week 10 6,055 30,758 12,686 49,499

Heavenly Sword: 1.35 Million (not bad for an 8 hour game)
Japan US Europe Total
Total Sales 0.06m 0.50m 0.80m 1.36m
Week 1 16,756 77,445 11,941 106,142
Week 2 8,364 38,335 63,767 110,466
Week 3 4,628 22,926 29,593 57,147
Week 4 3,365 15,070 29,314 47,749
Week 5 3,499 10,629 29,857 43,985
Week 6 3,956 8,302 30,824 43,082
Week 7 3,448 7,337 30,403 41,188
Week 8 4,072 6,691 24,300 35,063
Week 9 1,607 6,709 20,340 28,656
Week 10 1,362 7,390 17,560 26,312

Uncharted: Drake's Adventure: 2.39 Million
Japan US Europe Total
Total Sales 0.06m 1.07m 1.26m 2.39m
Week 1 16,494 35,097 85,100 136,691
Week 2 9,764 59,665 110,708 180,137
Week 3 7,441 46,676 129,378 183,495
Week 4 6,153 49,541 83,792 139,486
Week 5 7,002 51,038 53,486 111,526
Week 6 2,883 56,189 47,052 106,124
Week 7 2,313 38,602 39,118 80,033
Week 8 1,761 26,500 35,890 64,151
Week 9 1,551 18,171 31,457 51,179
Week 10 1,164 15,635 27,216 44,015

As these PS3 exclusives show (if you believe the data), most of their sales actually come out past the two month window you suggest. Microsoft and Nintendo almost certainly have games which enjoy prolonged sale strength (Gears of War has an impressive 5.75 million units, while Mario Galaxy racked up 7.5 million units sold. There's no way these two got near those figure in just two months).

So according to VGChartz, Valkyria is at ~280,000 units sold at about the two month mark. By contrast, Persona 3 FES sold 330,000 units (this doesn't include European sales), while base Persona 3 sold a combined 500,000 units. So I, personally, think Valkyria is doing pretty well given its new kid on the block status. It doesn't enjoy the brand-recognition that Person/Shin Megami Tensei has (niche though it may be).

It's true that VC's sales have dropped of considerablly since the launch week; however, the data shows that sales have actually been increasing the last two weeks that data was being collected. Is that because of the holiday-induced spike, or genuine interest by word of mouth? Only time will tell.

I hope the game hits 500,000 units by the end of its cycle, with the help of renewed interest in Japan due to the anime. And there will be more PS3 owners in Japan to pick it up.
 
Theres no reason to believe that all PS3 exclusives are going to follow the same trend, not to mention that all 3 of your example titles have been in bundles, either from the manufacturer or at the retail level, in one or more regions.

There are lots of Wii exclusives, but no one believes that they all are going to follow in the footsteps of the evergreens such as Mario Kart or Wii Play/Fit. The few titles that do have legs are going to be ones with mass appeal, which Valkyria Chronicles does not have. Fire Emblem for Wii is pretty much tapped out as far as potential sales.

Vgchartz numbers arent just suspect. They are fictional.
 
More relevant counter example: Disgaea 3 - Small PS3 exclusive in a more similar genre (technically the same genre as VC).

Japan
Launch week(Media-Create) 54,596
LTD (Famitsu) 93.227

UK bundle from one of their big retailers, including Resistance and Uncharted
Same retailer, Heavenly Sword + Resistance
Official SCEE bundle - Heavenly Sword
 
[quote name='Dr Mario Kart']Theres no reason to believe that all PS3 exclusives are going to follow the same trend, not to mention that all 3 of your example titles have been in bundles, either from the manufacturer or at the retail level, in one or more regions.[/QUOTE]

Then it'd be hard to really gauge how well the game sell then since the data doesn't go out that far.

Although, do games sold in bundles count towards the totals?

And if those bundles were only sold in Europe, I don't believe it could inflate the numbers quite that much. If it were worldwide, then perhaps yes.
 
Killzone is the first Exclusive PS3 title coming out in 2009. The game is to date, is the best graphics that the PS3 can offer, the game has been fully optimized for the PS3. No other big game competition, so I think that it's going to set the tone for a successful year for Sony.
 
[quote name='Thomas96']Killzone is the first Exclusive PS3 title coming out in 2009. The game is to date, is the best graphics that the PS3 can offer, the game has been fully optimized for the PS3. No other big game competition, so I think that it's going to set the tone for a successful year for Sony.[/QUOTE]

Don't get your hopes up.
 
I say killzone 2 sells more than Resistance 2 did but far less than MGS4.
 
[quote name='zewone']Don't get your hopes up.[/quote]

That's what I tell people when they ask about a stable 360.
 
[quote name='zewone']
santagif.gif
[/quote]

He does not have a frosty head or a business suit. He also isn't doing the cabbage patch.
 
[quote name='Thomas96']the game has been fully optimized for the PS3. [/quote]


Why even mention this? That is like saying my motor oil has been fully optimized for my car. It is generic fluff.
 
[quote name='Thomas96']Killzone is the first Exclusive PS3 title coming out in 2009. The game is to date, is the best graphics that the PS3 can offer, the game has been fully optimized for the PS3. No other big game competition, so I think that it's going to set the tone for a successful year for Sony.[/quote]

And yet, Gears of War 2 honestly looks better.
 
Eh. Speaking as someone who owns all three, I've got to say that Sony had better have some awesome shit coming really soon, because I've been buying and playing more PS2 games on my PS3 than PS3 games. My favorite "PS3-only" shiny disc that I have is my Dark Knight blu-ray, followed closely by LittlePigBlanet...other than those two, I haven't gotten into the PS3 that much. I gave MGS4 a whirl, it was graphically impressive but, like the other MGS games I've tried to play, found the controls to be unintuitive and overwhelming. I haven't torn into Disgaea 3 yet, but I'm looking forward to getting into it.

Unfortunately, as a multi-platform owner, unless something is exclusive or clearly better in somehow on the PS3, its going on the 360. I already had Rock Band for it, so that means RB2 and all GH games were all being purchased for that, since I don't need a freakin' second set of toy instruments. And, since the 360 has been out a year longer, is cheaper, and has a much larger install base (the two former details likely being part of the cause of the latter), more of my friends, classmates, and coworkers have 360s, so I go with the 360 version so I can play online with them. Oh, and acheivements, so much more fulfilling than trophies.

But ugh. It was fun making a Mii for the first time. Then it was fun making a character in Rock Band, and recreating it in Rock Band 2. But by the time NXE rolled around on the 360, rivaled only by the Home beta in what a tacked-on, featureless, clunky pain-in-the-ass it was, I'm so goddamn sick of making little fake manequin people on my goddamn system and just want to play a game without the bullshit.

I do agree, though -- the mere existance of the PS3, even with Nintendo and Microsoft dominating the industry, is a good thing, because industry competition benefits the consumer.
 
[quote name='Ecofreak']That doesn't make any sense. So why go through the expense of localizing and distribution if there isn't a chance to make some money? Good will and publicity?

VC is not going to sell a million copies, but it will continue to sell steadily throughout the game's lifetime. Once the holiday rush has passed and people start to look for new games to play during the usual yearly drought, those who do research will say, "Hey -- what's this Valkyria Chronciles that's gotten really good ratings?" PS3 exclusives, from my understanding, sell well and steadily despite being full price (ex. Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, and Ratchet & Clank).[/quote]



You keep looking at this like people buy games logically and by the reviews. I've tried to steer people away from crappy games for the last couple weeks but they come in either knowing what they want or they get swayed by the box art.

You also said that people would look at ratings when we all know that several critically acclaimed games didn't sell at all. Beyond Good & Evil and Psychonauts are prime examples of that.

Let's look at the three exclusives that you give as examples:

Heavenly Sword snared the God of War and perv crowd because you had a hot barely clothed chick doing her best Kratos impression. Reviews weren't so kind but hot girls trump reviews everytime.

Uncharted snared the Tomb Raider and Jak & Daxter (because it's Naughty Dog) crowd. Great reviews and great game. I think this franchise will sell well until Naughty Dog hands it off to another studio that screws the whole franchise over just like Tomb Raider.

Ratchet & Clank snared the Ratchet & Clank crowd. You had a venerable PS2 franchise that made it's PS3 debut to great fanfare. Everyone that loved the first three, loved it. It's a great game and it really looks nice on the PS3.

Valkyria Chronicles snared the Disgaea crowd and the artsy crowd. Unfortunately, Disgaea 3 was released just before VC. Great reviews but we're not seeing any sales because the audience was too small. Who else was going to buy this game?

EDIT -- evanft makes a great point. Killzone 2 was going to be the game that proved that the PS3 was superior in the graphics department. All we ever heard from Sony was how the PS3 was the hardware giant this cycle but it all looks like the same promises we got when the PS2 launched. It better be noticeably better than Gears 2 or it'll just be more smoke up our ass.
 
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