Realistically we're probably looking at a 55/45 split at most (one way or the other). With the cost of game development, publishers can't turn their back on 45% of the market. Hell, they probably couldn't turn their back on the 25% in your example.The interesting scenario that this sets up is whether publishers would want to pull their games from PS4 because they're not being "protected" from used game sales.
Third party exclusives are largely a thing of the past, as with the huge development costs publishers need their big budget, hopeful blockbuster titles on as many platforms as possible to get as many sales as possible. Both to make their budgets back, and still turn a profit by making up for the ones that flop and don't sell.
So yeah, Sony basically called their bluff and just left them to keep doing online passes for the MP portion of their games if they want, but otherwise told them to piss off about wanting strong DRM like on X1.
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