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Limited Run Games Thread - Global Outbreak of...Delayed Shipping

limited run games omg so rare ps4 vita

#28591 Richard Kain   The Kaiser CAGiversary!   2948 Posts   Joined 14.0 Years Ago  

Richard Kain

Posted 03 December 2020 - 09:06 PM

Prices on second-hand games is always going to be a constantly fluctuating variable. You should always look to the basics of supply and demand. Supply, in the case of LRG, is a known and posted quantity. We essentially know exactly what the supply is for any and all of the truly "limited" titles they put out. The supply is less certain for their pre-order titles, as those supplies are dictated by the number of people lining up to purchase them, instead of being a fixed number ahead of time. Those figures can fluctuate from game to game, but we can still "ballpark" the limits of them.

 

Demand is where things get murky. Demand is far more nebulous, and far more contingent on various factors out of the control of the average person on the street. Attempting to predict demand requires far more consideration, and involves far more variables.

 

The long-term success of LRG has actually lowered the demand for their titles in the second-hand market. There would be considerably more demand for their games if they had gone out of business at some point. The fact that their business model has proven successful and stable means that there isn't going to be any immediate end to their products. While the print runs of their individual publications are inherently limited, the company itself and its continuing output has no expiration date. This lowers the immediate demand for their titles. You don't need to get as hyped when this has been going on for years, and likely will continue to for years to come. Mundanity lowers the demand.

 

The speculation bubble for LRG titles has also burst. The long-term viability of this business model has also taken the wind out of short-term speculation. Even the more hard-core collectors have realized that a bit of patience will allow them to pick up copies at reasonable prices. They are no longer frothing at the mouth to pay exorbitant prices for games they missed out on getting. And speculators in turn are starting to get burned by copies that don't immediately appreciate in value for fast flipping. The success of the pre-order entries have further worn down the practice of short-term flipping.

 

Bottom line, I will reiterate what I'm always harping on about. Short-term game speculation is a terrible idea, and you shouldn't engage with it. Game collecting and selling has a very long time investment. Games, even rare ones, take a while before they appreciate in re-sale value, and there are numerous factors that affect that sale value. Snatching up games out of a desire to make money off of re-selling them is a terrible waste of time and resources. You'd make way more money by just getting a regular job. "Flipping" games properly requires that you sit on a title for 30+ years. And even then you'd see better profits from so many other hobbies. Game collecting is not a good place for speculative investment.



#28592 Mattiful-Joe   Henshin A Go-Go Baby! CAGiversary!   3335 Posts   Joined 17.8 Years Ago  

Mattiful-Joe

Posted 03 December 2020 - 09:45 PM

Bottom line, I will reiterate what I'm always harping on about. Short-term game speculation is a terrible idea, and you shouldn't engage with it. Game collecting and selling has a very long time investment. Games, even rare ones, take a while before they appreciate in re-sale value, and there are numerous factors that affect that sale value. Snatching up games out of a desire to make money off of re-selling them is a terrible waste of time and resources. You'd make way more money by just getting a regular job. "Flipping" games properly requires that you sit on a title for 30+ years. And even then you'd see better profits from so many other hobbies. Game collecting is not a good place for speculative investment.

Agree 100%.  Best rule is to buy games that you want to to play, not because of some speculative collector value.

 

I'll also just add that even supply is a fluctuating variable when it comes to games.  Part of the reason Nintendo games are perceived to hold value is because people generally don't sell those titles.  There are millions of copies of most premiere Nintendo titles, and yet some still go for over half their MSRP.  This is because there are fewer sellers.  This is probably the same reason why even popular PS2 games are starting to go back up in price on the secondary market.  Fewer and fewer copies are being put up for sale. 

 

That's a good thing.  It means more and more games are landing in the hands of folks who are buying to PLAY them.  Also, this tends to mean those people will keep them.  Most of us I would think keep games we either play or want to play. 

 

As such, supply shrinks regardless how  many copies are available. 

 

Now, of course, all of this really relates to games that aren't available digitally.  I still think as game sales continue to become more and more digital, and the generation of those who want physical media move on or get proportionally smaller, you're going to see precipitous drops in demand for most physical media, short of those rare, deserted island releases.

 

In other words, all of this is to say again what Richard Kain articulates well, which is that game speculation is just a terrible idea. 

 

My rule - buy the games you want to play.  If you want physical media - then again, buy those games you want to play, perhaps a little sooner than you used to because many games - except for the obvious AAA titles - nowadays don't get more than a single print run.

 

 

 



#28593 redrum666   CAG Veteran CAGiversary!   1468 Posts   Joined 15.6 Years Ago  

Posted 03 December 2020 - 10:02 PM



#28594 mylifeisgarbage   Banned Banned   86 Posts   Joined 0.8 Years Ago  

mylifeisgarbage

Posted 03 December 2020 - 10:33 PM

I'll also just add that even supply is a fluctuating variable when it comes to games.  Part of the reason Nintendo games are perceived to hold value is because people generally don't sell those titles.  There are millions of copies of most premiere Nintendo titles, and yet some still go for over half their MSRP.  This is because there are fewer sellers.  This is probably the same reason why even popular PS2 games are starting to go back up in price on the secondary market.  Fewer and fewer copies are being put up for sale.
That's a good thing.  It means more and more games are landing in the hands of folks who are buying to PLAY them.  Also, this tends to mean those people will keep them.  Most of us I would think keep games we either play or want to play. 
 
As such, supply shrinks regardless how  many copies are available. 
 
Now, of course, all of this really relates to games that aren't available digitally.  I still think as game sales continue to become more and more digital, and the generation of those who want physical media move on or get proportionally smaller, you're going to see precipitous drops in demand for most physical media, short of those rare, deserted island releases.
 
In other words, all of this is to say again what Richard Kain articulates well, which is that game speculation is just a terrible idea. 
 
My rule - buy the games you want to play.  If you want physical media - then again, buy those games you want to play, perhaps a little sooner than you used to because many games - except for the obvious AAA titles - nowadays don't get more than a single print run.

The irony in this is that there was a time period when Nintendo was considered kiddie and lame and their games were basically worthless. During the 2000's you could find NES and SNES cartridges in pawn shops for $1 and I wouldn't be surprised if thousands, if not millions of carts were thrown in the garbage during those years because no one wanted them. Even GC games could be found cheap, I remember when GS was first clearance out GC games and the employee in there told me that no one else gave a shit about them except for me and that they were taking up space in the store for months. I'm talking about high quality games like Melee for a few bucks a piece that are now valuable. N64 carts were also pawn shop fodder. Even amazing stuff like Mario, Zelda, etc. Everyone was playing GTA and Halo those years instead. Somewhere down the line people grew up and became nostalgic about Nintendo and the games shot up in value again. Wii U games are cheap right now and it would be amazing if in 10-20 years they suddenly become collectible. It might sound crazy but they happened with GC. I don't expect that to happen, either, especially since everything good has been basically ported by now but all I'm saying is you never know.

#28595 mylifeisgarbage   Banned Banned   86 Posts   Joined 0.8 Years Ago  

mylifeisgarbage

Posted 03 December 2020 - 10:47 PM

There was a time when PS4 LRG stuff went for more than it does now on average. But now there are literally 250+ different Limited Run PS4 titles alone. If you think your Switch games are all holding their value at the end of the Switch life cycle when Limited Run has pumped out 300-400 of them, you're only deluding yourself. Switch collecting is already cooling off. 


The problem is there is only so much you can collect. Eventually you will get to a point where you will either run out of money or space. I know people who have game collections in storage and haven't seen their games for years and that seems like a waste to me. If you can't display it and enjoy it then what's the point of even having it?

#28596 Tothoro  

Posted 04 December 2020 - 02:07 AM

I was thinking it was more to do with the "full set" mentality that seems more prevalent these days... I know I've seen lots of people with full Vita/Wii U sets, guessing that mentality carried on to the NS. 

Rather the opposite, actually - the end of the Vita (in NA at least) was such a miserable experience that it actually deterred me from wanting to collect on other platforms, especially the Switch. Maybe there are some gluttons for punishment, but I will never in my life want to do another full set.

 

There was a time when PS4 LRG stuff went for more than it does now on average. But now there are literally 250+ different Limited Run PS4 titles alone. If you think your Switch games are all holding their value at the end of the Switch life cycle when Limited Run has pumped out 300-400 of them, you're only deluding yourself. Switch collecting is already cooling off. 

Completely agree. Also important to note the sheer volume of physical games on the Switch. LRG is exploiting it and so are 20 other "limited" publishers. At least it's only EAS on the Vita and PS4 collecting is dying quickly. I hope people have learned so that the same stuff doesn't happen again on the PS5. This has gone from a fun boutique hobby to a sheer market flood (as I'm sure is the case with other industries) over one console generation. I'm more open to digital games than I've ever been.

 

Bottom line, I will reiterate what I'm always harping on about. Short-term game speculation is a terrible idea, and you shouldn't engage with it. Game collecting and selling has a very long time investment. Games, even rare ones, take a while before they appreciate in re-sale value, and there are numerous factors that affect that sale value. Snatching up games out of a desire to make money off of re-selling them is a terrible waste of time and resources. You'd make way more money by just getting a regular job. "Flipping" games properly requires that you sit on a title for 30+ years. And even then you'd see better profits from so many other hobbies. Game collecting is not a good place for speculative investment.

I've been saying this (much less eloquently) for years. For every Earthbound there are hundreds, if not thousands, of games below their MSRP. It's an incredibly volatile market that nobody hoping to prosper really has any control over. All this word salad to say - I wholeheartedly agree.



#28597 astrotide   CAG Veteran CAGiversary!   83 Posts   Joined 13.7 Years Ago  

Posted 04 December 2020 - 05:27 AM

Bottom line, I will reiterate what I'm always harping on about. Short-term game speculation is a terrible idea, and you shouldn't engage with it. Game collecting and selling has a very long time investment. Games, even rare ones, take a while before they appreciate in re-sale value, and there are numerous factors that affect that sale value. Snatching up games out of a desire to make money off of re-selling them is a terrible waste of time and resources. You'd make way more money by just getting a regular job. "Flipping" games properly requires that you sit on a title for 30+ years. And even then you'd see better profits from so many other hobbies. Game collecting is not a good place for speculative investment.

This isn't really a flipping story at all, but it feels relevant...

 

A few years ago I bought 3 of the LRG PS4 Blind Box games. It seemed exciting! The reality set in when I received 3 games I never would have purchased. Ever.

 

I vowed to sell them.

 

Unfortunately no one else wanted them either. It took about 3 years before I finally sold the last one. I got back just about 50% of what I paid. The cost of entry and overall annoyance was not worth the brief hope of getting one of the rare titles that was actually a good game or had some value as a collectible.

 

I can only say I was left feeling a kinship with Miss Natalie Imbruglia who put it so eloquently... "Nothing's fine, I'm torn. I'm all out of faith. This is how I feel. I'm cold and I am shamed. Lying naked on the floor."

 

You hear that Limited Run. Cold and shamed!

 

Never again Blind Box. Never again!



#28598 nightc1   CAG Veteran CAGiversary!   3759 Posts   Joined 16.1 Years Ago  

Posted 04 December 2020 - 02:44 PM

Completely agree. Also important to note the sheer volume of physical games on the Switch. LRG is exploiting it and so are 20 other "limited" publishers. At least it's only EAS on the Vita and PS4 collecting is dying quickly.

The vita library went from a quaint Dreamcast like experience where it was possible to get a full set for a fairly reasonable price and not feel bad as most games were of decent quality to quite great.... to being a royal pain in the ass as so few games were worth the markup from digital to physical.  INDIE games being digital was a way for smaller devs to sell games ... where they would normally never get a physical run because the vast majority of them aren't that great.

 

What I think is a good comparison, though it won't have the same results, is the current state of limited print games is VERY similar to the Atari 2600 days... where pretty much anything could get published regardless of it being a quality game or not.   That lead to a loss in confidence in the market and it crashed.  The collector market ... that'll surely crash on most of these games... but.. it won't crash the whole market as it's kept to more of a boutique experience rather than it infecting all of the major retailers.
 

 

Never again Blind Box. Never again!

Blind boxes are slot machine mechanics set to game purchasing.  Many will play, few will win.



#28599 nitrosmob   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   10595 Posts   Joined 15.0 Years Ago  

Posted 04 December 2020 - 03:17 PM

Bought Vita blind boxes once too and only kept La Mulana. Sold Darius Burst (already had it on PS4) and Runner 2 (No interest). I also bought blind box shirts once and gifted one to my bro and only wore one. It's just better to spend more money and get the games you actually want.



#28600 Tothoro  

Posted 04 December 2020 - 04:31 PM

Let's also not forget the Jumanji fiasco with Blindboxes. Bad game, Standard edition was retail, LRG sold a CE that nobody wanted. Yet somehow there were tons of blindboxes filled with standard edition copies of Jumanji.

 

Or the Super Meat Boy/Papers Please fiasco, where copies of as-of-yet unreleased Vita games were included in blindboxes (and to this day remains the only way SMB Vita has been sold).

 

Or the fact that these blindboxes still take over a month to ship out, even though it's stuff LRG clearly has on hand.

 

This is a way for them to clear their warehouse of unwanted things and replacement copies they didn't need and little else. Personal bitterness aside, it's gambling with extremely poor odds and like others have said it'd be much better to spend a little more on something you legitimately wanted.



#28601 Richard Kain   The Kaiser CAGiversary!   2948 Posts   Joined 14.0 Years Ago  

Richard Kain

Posted 04 December 2020 - 05:00 PM

The prices of second hand games swing wildly, but are always directly linked to demand. And demand also swings wildly. Interest or knowledge of a particular title heavily influences the demand. This is why you can see the price of a used title rise when a digital release for it comes out. If a much older game is obscure, and lesser known, only the older and more knowledgeable fans are looking for it. But a modern digital re-release exposes a larger audience to the game, and press over its digital re-release can boost interest. That knowledge, interest, and awareness will increase demand for the original physical copy, spiking prices for it on the second hand market.

 

But the same is not true for a game that started off as a digital release. Titles like that already got their big media push when they first came out digitally, so having an after-the-fact physical release won't increase the demand. How popular, well-known, and well-received the digital title was will effect the demand for the physical copy. So Kemco RPGs get middling to low demand, while titles like OddWorld, Bastion, or Celeste get frothing demand.

 

Older Nintendo games hold their re-sale value for many reasons, some of them sensible, some of them bizarre. The most obvious reason is that Nintendo themselves hardly ever puts their first-party games on sale, and this keeps the re-sale value high for places like GameStop. When the MSRP never dips, it is a lot easier for chains like GameStop to knock $5 off the MSRP, and just leave it like that, raking in the fat profits. Then there's the fact that Nintendo first-party title tend to be very good games, which keeps the critical value. And then you have the bizarre reasons, often with the Pokemon titles. Some people buy used Pokemon games, specifically so they can download any saved Pokemon off of them. I don't get it, but whatever. It inherently means that Pokemon games from any generation will be close to their original retail price, pretty much forever.

 

Taking advantage of dips in popularity or circumstances is great for collectors, as its one of the best times to pick up games on the really cheap. I was there for the days when NES and SNES cartridges were going for just a couple of bucks. I paid $5 for a copy of Ninja Gaiden on the NES. I paid $7 for a copy of Super Metroid. I dropped $12 for a GameCube component cable. Bargains are still possible, but they take patience. Right now is the time to be snagging Wii U titles, in another year or two, it will be time for XBox One and PS4 titles to have their turn.



#28602 mylifeisgarbage   Banned Banned   86 Posts   Joined 0.8 Years Ago  

mylifeisgarbage

Posted 04 December 2020 - 07:02 PM

I remember when EBGames had the old Pokemon carts on sale for $4.99-$9.99 because they were flooded with used copies of Red/Blue, Gold/Silver, and Crystal. This was around the type period Fire Red and Leaf Green came out and everyone considered the GB/GBC to be worthless. I asked them how much Crystal traded in for and they gave me a ridiculously low quote (like $0.50) and said they wouldn't even take the others. I ended up giving the carts away. If only I knew back then...

#28603 nitrosmob   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   10595 Posts   Joined 15.0 Years Ago  

Posted 04 December 2020 - 08:54 PM

Speculating on prices for just about anything physically is a fools game for sure. I'd say speculating on other things can be a fool's game too, but that's just my opinion. I agree with the sentiment that you buy stuff to hopefully play, and just leave it at that. I think I remember seeing about 8 or so copies of that SMT 3DS game Apocalypse I believe it was for about $10 or whatever it was at its lowest point. Could have bought them all and sold them all for a nice profit now, but I didn't really want to. Every now and then you can get lucky and sell something for a profit or more likely about what you paid for it (not bad honestly). To bring it back to the thread LRG release way too much for me to buy much anymore, and the prices aren't amazing, so I pass. 



#28604 Shadowmoses12   CAG in Training CAGiversary!   1582 Posts   Joined 8.4 Years Ago  

Shadowmoses12

Posted 04 December 2020 - 09:17 PM

So when is star wars racer and doom 64 gonna ship from lrg?

#28605 baboonfreak   CAG Veteran CAGiversary!   1280 Posts   Joined 11.5 Years Ago  

baboonfreak

Posted 04 December 2020 - 09:30 PM

Doom 64 was late September so not sure you'll get that until February or March. I ordered Star wars racer myself and doubt it'll ship by the end of the year.



#28606 Richard Kain   The Kaiser CAGiversary!   2948 Posts   Joined 14.0 Years Ago  

Richard Kain

Posted 05 December 2020 - 03:06 AM

If you wanted to be really, really sneaky, there is one possible way of "insuring" the re-sale value of a used game. Go out, pick a game that you can get for next to nothing, and buy up a bunch of copies. Then stir up some controversy over the game, or create a popular on-line review of the game, or do SOMETHING on social media to turn that particular game into a meme. Basically, leverage modern internet media to drastically boost the public knowledge of the game, and the demand for used copies will almost certainly increase.

 

The obvious problem with this approach is that it would take actual time, effort, and talent to insure it succeeds. I don't think most flippers are interested in putting in that kind of legwork.



#28607 Xenogears   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   752 Posts   Joined 11.4 Years Ago  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 03:23 AM

If you wanted to be really, really sneaky, there is one possible way of "insuring" the re-sale value of a used game. Go out, pick a game that you can get for next to nothing, and buy up a bunch of copies. Then stir up some controversy over the game, or create a popular on-line review of the game, or do SOMETHING on social media to turn that particular game into a meme. Basically, leverage modern internet media to drastically boost the public knowledge of the game, and the demand for used copies will almost certainly increase.

 

The obvious problem with this approach is that it would take actual time, effort, and talent to insure it succeeds. I don't think most flippers are interested in putting in that kind of legwork.

I’ve sometimes wondered if the cookstar switch controversy was actually a test of that concept...on an even bigger scale than you are talking about.  I wouldn’t put it past some shady marketing firm to come up with if game quality and market tests were pointing towards terrible sales anyway.



#28608 etcrane   A Damn Fine Cup of Coffee CAGiversary!   6166 Posts   Joined 18.0 Years Ago  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 04:01 AM

Where art thou Kentucky Route Zero ... come to me in December ...

#28609 Madzane  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 09:14 AM

Iam8bit sent out a email stating the game is still due in December but IMO the slog of USPS and other shipping services is going to push that to next year for most.

#28610 Jurai  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 09:53 AM

So when is star wars racer and doom 64 gonna ship from lrg?


1997

#28611 mylifeisgarbage   Banned Banned   86 Posts   Joined 0.8 Years Ago  

mylifeisgarbage

Posted 05 December 2020 - 05:33 PM

LRG needs to take a break from releasing any new games in 2021 and just ship everything that's out. I know they probably have Madden 2001, Turok Evolution, the original Mega Man 1, and King of Fighters '95 for the PS4 planned and we're all excited about those but come on.

#28612 nagpo  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 05:50 PM

Got an email from LRG that said "Why you need Monkey Island Anthology..." And I thought, why? So I can get it 8 months from now? I'm still waiting on Grandia for the switch



#28613 Nothing-   Tomorrow King - Interloper Kai CAGiversary!   9683 Posts   Joined 9.8 Years Ago  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 05:54 PM

Got an email from LRG that said "Why you need Monkey Island Anthology..." And I thought, why? So I can get it 8 months from now? I'm still waiting on Grandia for the switch

Yeah I really wanted to buy the Grandia collection on Switch but my opinion of LRG and my motivation for buying from them had fallen so far that I never got around to ordering it.  Got really tired of waiting 8-12months for my previous game orders from them. 



#28614 georox   The Captain CAGiversary!   7718 Posts   Joined 14.4 Years Ago  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 06:17 PM

I've been saying this (much less eloquently) for years. For every Earthbound there are hundreds, if not thousands, of games below their MSRP. It's an incredibly volatile market that nobody hoping to prosper really has any control over. All this word salad to say - I wholeheartedly agree.

EarthBound isn't even that rare, it's an artificial scarcity to jump prices up. Game hit super clearance back in the day and a lot of copies were produced, the problem is most are in the hands of resellers who know they'll sucker someone out of their money. Same with New Mutants 98 (First Deadpool comic) it is NOT a rare book, I know some people with 20+ copies because they were rotting in back issue bins for ages... but due to him gaining popularity, people realized they could jack the price up and someone would (eventually) pay it. 



#28615 gpn   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   216 Posts   Joined 17.7 Years Ago  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 06:54 PM

Got an email from LRG that said "Why you need Monkey Island Anthology..." And I thought, why? So I can get it 8 months from now? I'm still waiting on Grandia for the switch

Not just that, but it costs way too much and includes too much junk I wouldn't want. I've been a huge fan of the series since playing the original on Amiga many years ago, and I'd be happy to get a collector's edition of the games, but not what LRG is offering.



#28616 WingsDJY   CAGiversary! CAGiversary!   4140 Posts   Joined 14.1 Years Ago  

Posted 05 December 2020 - 07:03 PM

Gotta love when YouTubers like MJR showcase their favorite CEs of the year and one of them is an LRG distributed title that hasn’t even shipped out yet (Deliver Us to the Moon). Guess I should’ve bought the PAL version like he did

#28617 MunkichioO   Lurker... o.o CAGiversary!   219 Posts   Joined 11.6 Years Ago  

MunkichioO

Posted 05 December 2020 - 09:35 PM

Safe to assume most if not all Q4 2020 "to ship" is goin to be Q3 2021 now?



#28618 mylifeisgarbage   Banned Banned   86 Posts   Joined 0.8 Years Ago  

mylifeisgarbage

Posted 06 December 2020 - 06:33 PM

Safe to assume most if not all Q4 2020 "to ship" is goin to be Q3 2021 now?


The updated estimated ship date for Grandia HD Collection is probably somewhere around Q3-2021-Q42025. There will probably be a Grandia HD Trilogy released at retail by the time their Grandia HD Collection ships.

#28619 shosaisyu   Waster of Monies CAGiversary!   263 Posts   Joined 14.8 Years Ago  

shosaisyu

Posted 06 December 2020 - 08:15 PM

I love seeing CAGs unite over how shitty LRG is nowadays.

 

In b4 that one shill comes in and tells people "but we said months in advance and tentative release dates!"

 

yeah..as if any of the 2020 Q4 games I have are actually going to ship lol. I'm sure that'll be Q4 "fiscal" year, so maybe 2021..



#28620 Kaiser499   Gaming Guru CAGiversary!   4392 Posts   Joined 12.1 Years Ago  

Posted 06 December 2020 - 09:25 PM

I doubt people will stop buying from them anytime soon, only way to send them a message is if they feel it money wise.