Thanks for another entertaining podcast.
Re: 16% repair rates
I agree that the 16% repair rate number seems rather low.
Here is how I tried to justify my gut feeling:
Microsoft announced that it would take an additional 1.05 to 1.15 Billion dollar charge on repairing the RROD issue in July 2007.
http://www.microsoft.com/Presspass/press/2007/jul07/07-05WarrantyExtentionPR.mspx Note this is IN ADDITION to what MS expected to pay for in normal waranty repairs. This number should be quite accurate since it is reflected in their financial filings for the SEC.
Also note that SEC accounting rules state that reported income and charges can only be taken for shipped items, so the charge is only for 360's already shipped by the end of June, the end of MSFT's fiscal year.
In Sept 2007, Microsoft claimed that 11.6 million 360's were sold by the end of June.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7224&Itemid=2
So 1.15 Billion dollars / 11.6 million units = $99 per 360 sold at the time of the announcment.
Since Microsoft was charging $129 at the time to fix out of warranty, that would be a good value to gauge how much each repair costs. (I highly doubt that Microsoft would take a loss on out of warranty repairs.)
So $1.15 billion / $129 per repair = 8914729 units
So using the June 2007 figures of 11.6 million 360's sold, that would mean 77% of the units are expected in for repairs.
The 16% failure rate just doesn't add up, unless it only reflects the newer CPU Shrink falcon 360's.