Fantasy Football "Who Should I Start" Thread, 2013

I don't think I've taken back-to-back RBs in a draft since about 2005. In fact if trends continue like they have in the NFL, there's less and less evidence to believe that that is solid strategy. I'm all for picking an RB in round 1, especially if you in the top 7 or 8 but the NFL is more and more becoming a passing heavy league. Introduce RB tandems and more athletic QBs as the enmerging norm and there is about zero reason to pick a RB in rounds 1 & 2. 8+ years ago you had guys like Tomlinson competing for TD records. Now days the vast majority of RBs score fewer touchdowns than many WRs or even some TEs.

If the best player left is a RB and there's no viable Top 5 QB or Top 5 WR/TE left then ok. But margin for error is very thin and you will get left in the dust in basically every other single scoring category if you over-reach to get 2 RBs and are saddled with say Percy Harvin & Pierre Garcon as your WR1 & WR2, then good luck to you. 

All good draft strategy should take into account how the league is scored. For example in PPR leagues, if you are sitting around to say late round 4 or round 5 to make your first WR or TE pick the it will pretty difficult to win that league.

 
Duo_Maxwell said:
I don't think I've taken back-to-back RBs in a draft since about 2005. In fact if trends continue like they have in the NFL, there's less and less evidence to believe that that is solid strategy. I'm all for picking an RB in round 1, especially if you in the top 7 or 8 but the NFL is more and more becoming a passing heavy league. Introduce RB tandems and more athletic QBs as the enmerging norm and there is about zero reason to pick a RB in rounds 1 & 2. 8+ years ago you had guys like Tomlinson competing for TD records. Now days the vast majority of RBs score fewer touchdowns than many WRs or even some TEs.
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I get what you're saying, and you're right- every year the league becomes more and more pass-happy. But I feel like this makes RB's even more valuable in the early rounds just from a supply and demand point of view. There are so few every down workhorse backs nowadays that if you can start two every week, you've got an edge over teams that maybe have one good RB and a black hole at the RB2 spot. Also, as the passing numbers continue to climb, there are more and more quality QB's and WR's available. True, there are only so many top tier studs to go around, but the gap between a guy like Brees (who you'd need to use a 1st or early 2nd round pick to get) and guys like Stafford, Ryan, or Luck (who you may be able to get as late as round 4 or even 5) is shrinking. Meanwhile, once you get past the 10th-15th RB's, production at the position falls off a cliff.

Duo_Maxwell said:
If the best player left is a RB and there's no viable Top 5 QB or Top 5 WR/TE left then ok. But margin for error is very thin and you will get left in the dust in basically every other single scoring category if you over-reach to get 2 RBs and are saddled with say Percy Harvin & Pierre Garcon as your WR1 & WR2, then good luck to you.
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I don't mean to imply that I think it's written in stone that I have to go RB-RB with my first two picks. Obviously it depends on what's left when it comes around to my pick again. If the best thing left at RB is the 14th guy on my list, but my #3 WR is still there, then that's a no-brainer. Last year, picking last (12th), I went RB-RB with my first two picks, then with my 3rd and 4th picks (36th and 37th overall) I grabbed Andre Johnson and Hakeem Nicks. I was much happier with those WR's than I would have been with any of the RB's left at that point. I think that's my main thing with taking RB's early; I just dread how pathetic the options become later.

Duo_Maxwell said:
All good draft strategy should take into account how the league is scored. For example in PPR leagues, if you are sitting around to say late round 4 or round 5 to make your first WR or TE pick the it will pretty difficult to win that league.
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Absolutely. My league does a half-point per reception, so a guy like Ray Rice gets a bit of a bump, but not quite as much as in a full PPR league. It's definitely important to keep that stuff in mind. Plus, you can draft a great team using almost any strategy for your early picks if you're able to hit on some good value picks later on. Two years ago when Arian Foster had his big breakout year, he pretty much single-handedly led me to my leagues Super Bowl. I drafted him as my 3rd RB in the 7th round (81st overall) and got lucky. Last year I was targeting Eli Manning in the 5th round, but the guy picking one spot ahead of me took him.... so I had to settle for Peyton. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. :lol:

 
I think I lucked out on FAs yesterday. I think the rest of my league slept on it. I was able to grab:

Carson Palmer

Kenbrell Thompkins

Kevin Ogletree

Ronnie Hillman

Shonn Greene

Jacquizz Rodgers

Ryan Broyles

Roy Helu

I know a lot of these are handcuffs, and that was my point for trade bait, but some I think some will be starting by Week 4 or so like Jacquizz. I wanted Marcel Reece as well, but hit my salary cap.

 
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What do you guys think about this trade, just a side note, this is a keeper league.

I have the 8th pick in my 12 man half-ppr league and the person I am trading with has the second overall pick. A few qbs go in the first round every year, we have 6pt passing tds. If AP makes to him at 2 and Calvin is at 8 he will make the trade.

I get

Doug Martin

his 2nd pick(23)

6th pick(71)

11th pick(122)

he gets

1st pick(8th)

2nd pick(17th)

6th pick(65th)

11th pick(128)

Also, I would get to keep Doug Martin with my 4th round pick next season if I choose him over Luck next year. We only get to have one keeper.

 
Draft is in a week and 1/2, Im in a keeper league this year. I took a spot of a guy who left. Looks like the only two Im keeping are Morris and Seattle's D both who got picked up super late. He does have Tony Romo and I think he picked him up in the 4th....

 
I'd def keep Morris (I elected to keep him in one of my leagues, only will cost me a 15th round pick). What pick will Seattle's D cost you? Normally I wouldn't advocate taking a Defense as a keeper, but if it only costs you like 9th round pick or later that is not too bad considering Seattle is looking to be top tier defense (fantasy wise at least).

 
So I have my first draft of the year tomorrow and am trying to figure out my first / second round strategy. Drafting 12 of 12, I'm tempted to go QB. While QB is deep this year and in any other of my leagues I 99% would not even consider it, the reason I'm considering it in this league is because of the money.

Aside from winning the championship, we are also giving small payouts to the person who has the top player for the week and for the top scoring team of the week. So while it could hurt my team as far as the championship goes, for this extra money potential I am thinking of going Brees or Rodgers at the wrap around. I'm just wondering more so if I'm crazy for even considering such a thing.

 
JStryke said:
So I have my first draft of the year tomorrow and am trying to figure out my first / second round strategy. Drafting 12 of 12, I'm tempted to go QB. While QB is deep this year and in any other of my leagues I 99% would not even consider it, the reason I'm considering it in this league is because of the money.

Aside from winning the championship, we are also giving small payouts to the person who has the top player for the week and for the top scoring team of the week. So while it could hurt my team as far as the championship goes, for this extra money potential I am thinking of going Brees or Rodgers at the wrap around. I'm just wondering more so if I'm crazy for even considering such a thing.
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If its a 6pt passing td league, go for it if not take a rb.

 
fatmanforlife99 said:
What do you guys think about this trade, just a side note, this is a keeper league.

I have the 8th pick in my 12 man half-ppr league and the person I am trading with has the second overall pick. A few qbs go in the first round every year, we have 6pt passing tds. If AP makes to him at 2 and Calvin is at 8 he will make the trade.

I get

Doug Martin

his 2nd pick(23)

6th pick(71)

11th pick(122)

he gets

1st pick(8th)

2nd pick(17th)

6th pick(65th)

11th pick(128)

Also, I would get to keep Doug Martin with my 4th round pick next season if I choose him over Luck next year. We only get to have one keeper.
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I'm not sure why, but this really confused me yesterday when I was looking at it. For some reason, I couldn't wrap my head around how it worked. I must have been tired or something, because when I looked at it today, it immediately made sense to me. Weird.

Anyway, I like the trade. Is it contingent on Megatron still being there at 8, or will he still make the trade if he's gone before you pick?

 
I've got a draft coming up on Monday.  1st pick in a 14 Team PPR league with 1 point for every 25 kick return yards.  Everything else standard - 2RBs, 2WRs 1 Flex.  I've got AP locked in for the first pick and think that any of the following could be there at the end of the 2nd/top of the 3rd:

QB: Brees, Manning, Newton

RB: Sproles, Bush, MJD, Chris Johnson

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz

Right now I'm having a hard time not picking a WR with at least one of the picks because as Duo_Maxwell said, picking my 1st WR at the end of the 4th might leave me with Eric Decker/Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Jordy Nelson as my WR1.

Which two players would you pick in this scenario?

 
In this scenario, with these guys all still there at the end of the 2nd round in a PPR league, you should absolutely use one of your picks on Fitzgerald.  If it were me, I'd go Fitzgerald and CJ.  If you prefer Bush to CJ, I wouldn't call that a bad pick considering it's PPR, as Bush could easily end up with 70+ receptions in that offense.  If you decide to go WR with both picks, I like Cobb slightly more than Andre Johnson.  Johnson will have more receptions, Cobb will have more TD's, but I'd be more worried about Andre missing time.  Cruz fell off a little last year, and I have a feeling he'll fall off a little more this year.  No concrete reason for that, just a feeling.

 
Stevesbored said:
I've got a draft coming up on Monday. 1st pick in a 14 Team PPR league with 1 point for every 25 kick return yards. Everything else standard - 2RBs, 2WRs 1 Flex. I've got AP locked in for the first pick and think that any of the following could be there at the end of the 2nd/top of the 3rd:

QB: Brees, Manning, Newton

RB: Sproles, Bush, MJD, Chris Johnson

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz

Right now I'm having a hard time not picking a WR with at least one of the picks because as Duo_Maxwell said, picking my 1st WR at the end of the 4th might leave me with Eric Decker/Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Jordy Nelson as my WR1.

Which two players would you pick in this scenario?
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I have to disagree w/ Danimal. If you are looking at those options, I'd easily take Brees there. In fact I'd be surprised if he is there, but you'd be wise to take him at the end of the second. Also, with the exception of CJ take all those other backs off your list for end of the 2nd/top of the 3rd. MJD would not be terrible but I think Steven Ridley will be there and is a better pickup because there's less concern behind him. Forte may even be around if luck is really on your side. Forget about Sproles, I can assure you that would be almost the biggest reach you could make. Personally though I'd avoid the RB pick in either position. Here's why:

Basically AP will outscore any RB this year unless he's injured, so you have the most elite RB already. Brees will come close to being the top scoring QB, probably the top. In fact he's been the highest scoring player in most fantasy league for about the past 2 or 3 seasons or so. So if you have a chance to pick the top RB & the scoring QB, you take that no questions asked. Fitzgerald or Cruz would make a decent top of the 3rd choice for a WR1, perhaps Cobb too. There's also a possibility Demaryius Thomas will be around at this point so if Brees is not available I would suggest a Manning/Thomas combination as a not too shabby backup plan. You could even get really lucky and have Julio Jones or perhaps even Jimmy Graham fall to you (pretty slim chance on either of those happening but odd things do tend to happen in fantasy drafts).

Follow that plan of attack and while you may not win the RB battle every week, but you just may win more games. PLus I think some fairly decent RB2 options like Bush/Miller/Murrary/Gore or Sporles if you want him will def. be there by the time you next set of picks rolls up.

 
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12 team league, we just did the draft selections tonight. My draft is the 25th. I got the 5th pick.... It's a non PPR league.

Idk what to do..

 
Duo_Maxwell said:
I have to disagree w/ Danimal. If you are looking at those options, I'd easily take Brees there. In fact I'd be surprised if he is there, but you'd be wise to take him at the end of the second. Also, with the exception of CJ take all those other backs off your list for end of the 2nd/top of the 3rd.
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I should mention that because I'm personally so dead set against taking a QB that early, I didn't really take the QB's you listed into consideration. But Duo_Maxwell is right- if Brees is still there, by all means take him. He most likely won't be, though. Manning shouldn't still be there, either, but I'd also say grab him if he is. Newton could possibly still be there the next time it comes back around to you, so you could roll the dice and beef up your RB's or WR's with your 2nd and 3rd picks, and hope you can still get Newton later. Or maybe Ryan. But yeah, if one of the top 2 or 3 QB's on the board falls that far, jump on him.

Duo_Maxwell said:
Follow that plan of attack and while you may not win the RB battle every week, but you just may win more games. PLus I think some fairly decent RB2 options like Bush/Miller/Murrary/Gore or Sporles if you want him will def. be there by the time you next set of picks rolls up.
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I'll respectfully disagree with this part; I don't think that Bush, Murray, Gore, or even Sproles will still be available by the end of the 4th round. I think Miller will be, but considering it's PPR, there's a chance Bush will go before the end of round 2. Some of these other guys we've been discussing- Fitzgerald, Thomas, Cruz, and Cobb may all go very early, too.

Chief Keef said:
12 team league, we just did the draft selections tonight. My draft is the 25th. I got the 5th pick.... It's a non PPR league.

Idk what to do..
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Picking 5th in the 1st round, I'd say definitely go RB. AP will be gone, but you'll have some good ones to choose from. Martin, Foster, Charles, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, Morris, depending on who's left, I think any of those guys is a solid 1st pick. After that, it depends on your league's scoring system, who's still there, and your own personal preference. I always like to try to get two RB's with my first 3 picks, but if you can get 2 stud WR's (or like the discussion above, if an elite QB- Brees, Rodgers, or Manning- is still there, that's another good option) Just make sure you feel good about the first 3 guys you take. After that, you need to start looking at what's left in the positions you haven't filled yet. For example, if you go RB-WR-WR with your first 3 picks, you have to start thinking about targeting a QB and another RB the next time it comes around to you. Then again, if you're not thrilled with anyone at those positions, but there's still a TE you covet, maybe grab him while you can. Just don't wait too long to get that 2nd RB or 2nd or 3rd WR, because after a while, you'll be digging through scraps. Same goes with QB's- as much as I advocate waiting and trying to get a good value pick later, don't wait too long. I'd say grab one by round 5 at the latest.

Oh, one more thing. Once you're past round 3, and it's coming back the other way in round 4, start taking note of what positions the guys picking 1-4 need. If they all have QB's already, there's no need to use your 4th round pick on a QB, since they're not likely to take another one at that point. On the other hand, if there's only one or two QB's left that you'd really like, and two of those guys don't have one yet, grab yours before they pick. Same goes if they need WR's or RB's; take into consideration what positions they're likely to go for and what that will leave you with.

 
Danimal said:
I'll respectfully disagree with this part; I don't think that Bush, Murray, Gore, or even Sproles will still be available by the end of the 4th round. I think Miller will be, but considering it's PPR, there's a chance Bush will go before the end of round 2. Some of these other guys we've been discussing- Fitzgerald, Thomas, Cruz, and Cobb may all go very early, too.
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Bush's average draft spot right now is about 57th overall (in yahoo leagues). Granted a PPR league bumps his status up but not 30+ positions to make him 2nd round material IMO. He's done well in preseason and looks to be a major part of their passing game, but don't forget Megatron has mostly just rested up to this point. I may have overreached in saying that he could fall to the end of the 4th in a PPR league that large, but I do not see him going in the 2nd. The Detroit rungame has been in the tank for so long it is comical. So I do not see him getting you much on the ground. His point totals will go up if he scores, but he's not a between the tackles guy ao he's not the short yardage back picking up the TDs & Megatron will reamin the primary redzone target in the air I'm guessing. So if he's not scoring then even with 6-7 cataches/game unless he breaks for big yardage all he will average is maybe 11-12 pts per game. To me that's top-notch RB2 material easily, but not 2nd round material. All that aside, I'd say if the Top 3 QBs are gone and 3 of the 4 mentioned are gone I could see Bush going at the top of the 3rd/end of the 2nd, but personally in my strategies, if I am pciking in the 2nd oreven 3rd rounds like an RB who has esablished themselves in an offense and has proven the ability to get in the endzone (like Ridley) for example.

Sproles is in the same boat for me. I'll concide that he could go before the end of the 4th in a large PPR league. He averaged 13 pts/game last year in full PPR leagues, but he gets you so very little on the ground ( a possible boost is the return yds though if they are using him for that this year). When it comes to me though I'd rather take a gamble that he'll be there at the end of the 4th than really reach and take him so early.

Unless you've drafted in the same league a couple times, evertyhing is essentially pure speculation. Leagues are like people, they all have really different personalities and that makes what happens in draft extremely hard to predict especially from an outside perspective. however, that is also what keeps the drafts exciting and makes them so much fun.

 
Danimal said:
Picking 5th in the 1st round, I'd say definitely go RB. AP will be gone, but you'll have some good ones to choose from. Martin, Foster, Charles, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, Morris, depending on who's left, I think any of those guys is a solid 1st pick. After that, it depends on your league's scoring system, who's still there, and your own personal preference. I always like to try to get two RB's with my first 3 picks, but if you can get 2 stud WR's (or like the discussion above, if an elite QB- Brees, Rodgers, or Manning- is still there, that's another good option) Just make sure you feel good about the first 3 guys you take. After that, you need to start looking at what's left in the positions you haven't filled yet. For example, if you go RB-WR-WR with your first 3 picks, you have to start thinking about targeting a QB and another RB the next time it comes around to you. Then again, if you're not thrilled with anyone at those positions, but there's still a TE you covet, maybe grab him while you can. Just don't wait too long to get that 2nd RB or 2nd or 3rd WR, because after a while, you'll be digging through scraps. Same goes with QB's- as much as I advocate waiting and trying to get a good value pick later, don't wait too long. I'd say grab one by round 5 at the latest.

Oh, one more thing. Once you're past round 3, and it's coming back the other way in round 4, start taking note of what positions the guys picking 1-4 need. If they all have QB's already, there's no need to use your 4th round pick on a QB, since they're not likely to take another one at that point. On the other hand, if there's only one or two QB's left that you'd really like, and two of those guys don't have one yet, grab yours before they pick. Same goes if they need WR's or RB's; take into consideration what positions they're likely to go for and what that will leave you with.
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What about McCoy or Rice? You like all the said running backs over them?

My league is QB heavy -- 6 points per TD and a point every 25 yards. For RBs and WRs it's 6 pts per TD and 1 pt every 10 yards.

 
Duo_Maxwell said:
Bush's average draft spot right now is about 57th overall (in yahoo leagues). Granted a PPR league bumps his status up but not 30+ positions to make him 2nd round material IMO.

All that aside, I'd say if the Top 3 QBs are gone and 3 of the 4 mentioned are gone I could see Bush going at the top of the 3rd/end of the 2nd, but personally in my strategies, if I am pciking in the 2nd oreven 3rd rounds like an RB who has esablished themselves in an offense and has proven the ability to get in the endzone (like Ridley) for example.

Unless you've drafted in the same league a couple times, evertyhing is essentially pure speculation. Leagues are like people, they all have really different personalities and that makes what happens in draft extremely hard to predict especially from an outside perspective. however, that is also what keeps the drafts exciting and makes them so much fun.
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Absolutely. Every league is different; you could do one draft and see Bush go off the board around 57, then do another and see him go in the 2nd round. My estimate of where he'd go is based on what I've seen in the mocks I've done on CBS (my league runs through them), where everyone seems to grab RB's so early that he's usually gone by pick 30. (and that's standard mocks, not even PPR) I agree with you about both Bush and Sproles by the way, neither are likely to end up on my team. I'd take Ridley ahead of each of them all day long.

Chief Keef said:
What about McCoy or Rice? You like all the said running backs over them?

My league is QB heavy -- 6 points per TD and a point every 25 yards. For RBs and WRs it's 6 pts per TD and 1 pt every 10 yards.
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I do like the guys I listed ahead of both Rice and McCoy, but most lists I've seen have them right in the mix with the rest of them. I think Rice's best fantasy years might be behind him. Pierce should cut into his carries more this year than in the past; he's too good to keep on the sidelines for long. I'm not saying it will be a full RBBC situation, but I think it starts to slide that way this year. With McCoy, I'm worried that with Andy Reid gone, and the QB situation there unsettled, his numbers could go down. I could be completely wrong, it's just how I feel.

With your league giving 6 points for a TD pass, that makes it a lot easier to recommend taking Brees, Rodgers, or Manning if they're still there in round 2, but if those guys are gone, I'd wait and grab yourself either RB's or WR's with your 2nd and 3rd picks. Again, just my approach.

 
I'm in a twelve man ppr league and was just wondering if taking two elite WR's like AJ Green and Dez Bryant in my number 11# overall pick would give me that extra little boost, i know id be hurting at the rb position because by the time it came to me itd be picked over, my other strategy was one rb, one wr, AJ Green and either Reggie Bush, Alfred Morris,  or Steven Jackson. Unless something better falls lower than it should, how do you think those strategies are?

 
Now that I've looked back at my draft from last year, I noticed that people picked QBs early, so landing Brees or Manning at the end of the 2nd is probably a longshot.  I'll probably go best WR available and then either Ridley/CJ2K if they're available and then worry about QB when the next set of picks rolls around.

As for the 5th pick, I agree with Danimal - RB is the way to go.  I think Lynch, Morris, and Spiller are safe picks - they're in run heavy offenses that will have to continue leaning on the run this year due to injuries (Harvin, RG3, EJ Manuel).

 
Just did my first draft of the year. 12 team PPR, 12 spot.

QB - Russel Wilson

RB - Jamaal Charles

RB - Matt Forte

WR - AJ Green

WR - Pierre Garcon

WR - Josh Gordon

TE - Jason Witten

K - Randy Bullock

DEF - St. Louis

B - Giovani Bernard

B - Daryl Richardson

B - Ben Tate

B - Aaron Dobson

B - Alshon Jeffery

B - Greg Little

Very surprised I was able to get Charles at #12 overall and Forte in the 3rd round. Richardson in 9/10 was nice to see as well. Two things I regret is Witten at 4 although I didn't like a whole lot of my options and Wilson at 5/6. QBs went quick which surprised me a little. I figured with the depth, they'd stick around a little.

Otherwise, my WRs are questionable, but there is a lot of promise. My team I feel could do either pretty well or do absolutely terrible. According to a prediction site the one guy was using, my team would finish third.

 
japaki said:
One thing I didn't mention in my post is you start 3 wrs in this league, 1 qb, 2 rbs n one flex.
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I think in a 12 team PPR league where you start 3 WR's plus a flex, taking 2 elite WR's with your first two picks makes sense. You mentioned Alfred Morris; if he's still there, going with him and one elite WR is also a great start to your team. I feel like Bush and SJax are a bit of a reach that early, though.

@JStryke- Yeah, getting Charles at 12 and Forte at 36 is complete highway robbery in a PPR league. I like Forte a lot this year in that format. Their new head coach likes to involve his RB's in the passing game. Forte had a bit of a down year for receiving last year, 44 catches for 340 yards. I think you're going to see those numbers go up substantially this year. I could see him somewhere around 60 catches for 500 yards.

 
With Reggie Bush in Detroit, I'm waiting until round 6 or 7 to get a QB, and I'm going Stafford. QB is so loaded, it's like pitching in baseball, you could have picked Matt Harvey in round 12 or 13 in a 12 team league and built a contending staff from there. I want 3 RBs and 2 WR through round 5.

I guess if I lose out on Stafford I'll go Romo. Miss out on him and I'll just wait and go with Palmer.

 
Danimal said:
I think in a 12 team PPR league where you start 3 WR's plus a flex, taking 2 elite WR's with your first two picks makes sense. You mentioned Alfred Morris; if he's still there, going with him and one elite WR is also a great start to your team. I feel like Bush and SJax are a bit of a reach that early, though.

@JStryke- Yeah, getting Charles at 12 and Forte at 36 is complete highway robbery in a PPR league. I like Forte a lot this year in that format. Their new head coach likes to involve his RB's in the passing game. Forte had a bit of a down year for receiving last year, 44 catches for 340 yards. I think you're going to see those numbers go up substantially this year. I could see him somewhere around 60 catches for 500 yards.
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I am thinking about getting aj green and jackson unless morris is there or sone one better. I really like amendola this year if I can get him in round 3 or 4 that'd provide a lot of value I think
 
Ive been debating grabbing a Patriot WR that isnt Amendola. Thoughts on who would have the best upside.

I have my doubts on a healthy year from Amendola,, and if so, he sticks out like a sore thumb for defenses now for that team.
 
Feeding the Abscess said:
With Reggie Bush in Detroit, I'm waiting until round 6 or 7 to get a QB, and I'm going Stafford. QB is so loaded, it's like pitching in baseball, you could have picked Matt Harvey in round 12 or 13 in a 12 team league and built a contending staff from there. I want 3 RBs and 2 WR through round 5.

I guess if I lose out on Stafford I'll go Romo. Miss out on him and I'll just wait and go with Palmer.
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I was sort of with you up until you mentiond Palmer (well I think the QB to pitcher in fantasy baseball comparision is fautly too, but that's not the issue). If you end up making Palmer your QB1 you will struggle to make the playoffs. I think he's solid QB2 material and you should consider him in the very late rounds as a backup seeing as how you aren't drafting an elite QB.

In my experience though your QB1 at least needs to be a guy that you are certain will be the starter game after game (not accounting for injuries). Basically Arizona got him (fairly) cheap for a reason and that trust that he can finish the year as the starter is not there yet. Plus his performance last night looked like a rookie out there, didn't even complete half his passes I don't think. So essentially all we have to go on him is one preseasons game where he looked above avaergae and one below average. To me that means even though i love the new coach, new offense, etc, Palmer will still most likely struggle in many games. If there's a lot of that down the stretch they could replace him. Bruce Arians ran the same offense with Drew Stanton backing up Luck in Indy all of last year. Stanton knows the offense well and he was brought to AZ for the sole purpose of making sure that somone can run that offense if Palmer can't.

Honestly yes QB is deep this year, too deep in fact to just ignore everyone long enough to end up with Palmer as you rQB1. There's lots of better QB1 options to be had at round 7 or later (in regular scoring leagues) such as: Luck & Manning (Eli obviously). To be honest I even like Flacco, Roethelisbeger, Dalton, Cutler, or even Tannehill better and they could all probably be had at somewhere around Round 10 or later in many leagues.

 
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4thHorseman said:
Ive been debating grabbing a Patriot WR that isnt Amendola. Thoughts on who would have the best upside.

I have my doubts on a healthy year from Amendola,, and if so, he sticks out like a sore thumb for defenses now for that team.
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I'd say Edelman or Kenbrell Tompkins would be most likely to replace him. Dobson has all the speed & raw talent but I don't think he's a sharp enough route runner to be the Wes Welker/Amendola replacement. Seems as though he will fill role the Brandon Lloyd had last season of deep threat/larger redzone target (at least until Gronkowski is back)

 
Did our 12-team PPR draft earlier today:

QB: Cam Newton & Matt Schaub

RB: Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, Andre Brown, Danny Woodhead, & Bilal Powell

WR: Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, Cecil Shorts, Tavon Austin, Brian Hartline, & Stephan Hill

TE: Martellus Bennett & Zack Sudfeld

Def: Ravens & Bucs

K: Blair Walsh

 
Lynch, Morris, Cobb, and Newton.  Nice nucleus.  Did you say you were picking 8th?  I know it's PPR, but I'm surprised Lynch fell that far.  Still something to be said for a guy that piles up yards and touchdowns.

@GamerDude316- I'd keep Morris.

 
Yeah, 8th. Even though Lynch is not a huge threat in the passing game, like you said, it was hard to pass up a guy that runs like him. Charles actually fell to 7th in my league. Some idiot took Aaron Rodgers 6th.

 
Thoughts on12 team draft just finished. Picked #2.

QB:: Andrew Luck, Alex Smith
RB:: Arian Foster, Eddie Lacy, Daryl Richardson
WR:: Demariyous Thomas,, James Jones, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, Kenbrell Thompkins
TE:: Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers
Def: Bears, Cowboys
K: Dan Bailey
 
Here's my team for my first of five leagues. Drafted 12/12, non PPR. Live draft.

Calvin
Ridley
Gore
Garçon
Bowe
La'veon Bell
Gronk
RGTrill
Romo
Givens
Rudolph
Dawson
St. Louis
Pierre Thomas
 
4thHorseman said:
Thoughts on12 team draft just finished. Picked #2.

QB:: Andrew Luck, Alex Smith
RB:: Arian Foster, Eddie Lacy, Daryl Richardson
WR:: Demariyous Thomas,, James Jones, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, Kenbrell Thompkins
TE:: Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers
Def: Bears, Cowboys
K: Dan Bailey
Click to expand...
Aside from 2 defenses and Arian "red flags" Foster I like it a lot. I would try to trade a WR for a solid low end RB 2
 
bigdaddybruce44 said:
Did our 12-team PPR draft earlier today:

QB: Cam Newton & Matt Schaub
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, Andre Brown, Danny Woodhead, & Bilal Powell
WR: Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, Cecil Shorts, Tavon Austin, Brian Hartline, & Stephan Hill
TE: Martellus Bennett & Zack Sudfeld
Def: Ravens & Bucs
K: Blair Walsh
Click to expand...
High level starters. I hate your depth. Drop Stephan Hill for anyone.

I also don't get why Danny woodhead is being drafted at all. He's not on the patriots anymore. The guy is an RB 6 at best
 
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DestroVega said:
High level starters. I hate your depth. Drop Stephan Hill for anyone.

I also don't get why Danny woodhead is being drafted at all. He's not on the patriots anymore. The guy is an RB 6 at best
Click to expand...
I'll have to respectfully disagree. I like my bench a lot.

 
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Had my live draft tonight, 10 person ESPN league standard scoring.  I got 2nd pick.  Its a keeper league so AP, Charles, Richardson, Morris (my keeper), and Spiller were all unavailable.

QB:  Cam Newton

RB:  Alfred Morris, Ray Rice

WR:  Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks

RB/WR:  Reggie Bush

TE:  Greg Olsen

D:  49ers

K;  Matt Prater

Bench:  Andy Dalton, Vick Ballard, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Hillman, Ty Hilton, Golden Tate 

 
Looks solid.  I like Hilton on your bench.  I know he's Indy's #3 WR right now, but I think he's a lot better than Heyward-Bey and will eventually become Luck's #2 target.  Wayne is still very good, but he is getting older.  By the end of the year, Hilton may be considered their best WR.

  One of the things I find myself thinking about a lot right now is the question of how soon to take a DST.  What are you guys thoughts on that?  I used to always hold off as long as I could, waiting until Round 9-10 so that I could focus on building depth at RB and WR, plus get a decent 2nd QB in case of injury.  As much as I think that's a smart strategy, the last few years when I've waited, I've ended up with a black hole at DST where every week I seem to be at a 10 point disadvantage at that spot to my opponent.  Last year I ended up with Pittsburgh, and I think they wound up as the 27th ranked DST with my league's scoring system.  I'd like a DST that helps me win this year, rather than one that puts me in a hole I have to climb out of.  Looking at past drafts in my league, the DST's regularly start flying off the board in round 7.  If I want, say, Seattle, I think I'd have to take them on the back end of round 6, which is just too early.  I can probably still get a top 5 DST if I wait until round 7 (I'm picking 5th), but Seattle will be gone by then.  Our DST scoring is fairly standard I think; 1 point for a sack, 2 for turnovers, 6 for DTD or kick return TD's, and a sliding scale based on PA and YA.  Any thoughts?

 
What are your guys feelings on Foster? Trade him? I know the season hasn't started and Texans haven't stated anything yet. Been looking at a guy who has McCoy for a possible trade.

 
Reports say that, not only are therapy methods not working for Foster, but this back pain is now traveling down into his legs. Could be a lingering issue. I'd agree: run away.

 
I have a buddy in my league who has the 3rd pick, and he's stressing over Foster big time.  He says the guy picking 2nd already told him he's passing on Foster, so now my buddy is struggling with the decision.  I have a feeling he'll end up passing on Foster as well, and take Megatron.  He has a history of going for elite WR's with his first pick, although he hasn't had a pick as high as #3 in a long time.  It should be interesting.  I know if Foster falls to me at 5, he'll fall to at least 6, because I'm not touching him.

 
for defense, I admit I set the trend in round 8 by taking the 49ers.  Seahawks D went in the 3rd round (for a guy we autodrafted for who said he wanted defense in the 3rd round lol) but by round 8 everyone was being methodical and filling out their roster.  I had held off on a TE in round 5-6 thinking I could get a decent one in round 7 and then got stuck watching 4-5 good TE's come off the board before me.  I had a feeling the same would happen with D's and so I went proactive and got a solid one. Seems like it worked as immediately following my pick 4-5 other D's went off the board.

 
oh and for whatever reason he wasnt in my post last night, but I have Ben Tate as well.  I feel Foster will be hurt this year so Tate was a solid late pick.

 
Just finished my 14 team PPR draft and ended up with:

QB - Robert Griffin III

WR - Victor Cruz

WR - Wes Welker

RB - Adrian Peterson

RB - Reggie Bush

TE - Fred Davis

Flex - Lance Moore

K - Empty

DEF - Pittsburgh Steelers

Bench:

RB Daryl Richardson

WR Chris Givens

QB Ben Roethlisberger

WR Kenbrell Thompkins

RB Marcel Reece

WR Santonio Holmes

I was tempted to take Jimmy Graham with one of my 2nd/3rd round picks, but took Bush instead.  I'm glad I did because there was a big run on RBs early.  A lot hinges on RG3 being healthy.  I'll probably drop Holmes before week 1 to pick up a kicker.

 
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