Thanks to Wet Bandit over at OS; answered my question that looks like others have too.
THQ addressed the submissions in their latest Q&A. I bolded some of the more relevant bits.
Quote: I’m so glad someone has asked this question! I’ve seen more than a few people misunderstand our submission system, so here’s the scoop.
Submissions pit two people against each other in a struggle that takes into account many factors. First, the offensive fighter’s submission skill and the type of submission being performed are considered. The higher a fighter’s Submission Offense and the more advantageous the position from which the submission is attempted, the higher the likelihood the submission will succeed. That’s why some people have noticed in our demo that Mauricio “Shogun” Rua’s triangle submission from mount is easier than other submissions, like the knee bar from guard or the kimura from half guard. Also, the method the offensive fighter uses to sink in the submission plays an important part. There are two ways to execute a submission – mashing the face buttons or rotating the right stick, a maneuver we call The Shine. In all cases, The Shine is going to be a better method to sink in a submission. Make sure you rotate that stick fast! The faster you rotate the stick, the higher your chance of success.
It’s the defensive side and how players deal with submissions that I think confuses a lot of people. Similarly to the offensive fighter, a defensive fighter has stats that influence how successful he is at getting out of submissions. But in the defensive fighter’s case, they have two different stats – Strength and Submission Defense – and which state is used depends on which type of escape is performed. Brute force escapes, which are performed by rapidly mashing the face buttons, only take into account Strength. The other type of submission escape, Technical Escapes, which are also executed via The Shine, only look at a defensive fighter’s Submission Defense. As a defender, your best bet is to know which of these two stats is higher and to utilize the escape suited to that higher stat.
There is another extremely important factor in the success rate of a submission, and that is the defender’s energy level. I have seen many people incorrectly assert that the best way to execute a submission is to weaken your opponent by beating him up. This is simply not true! Energy is not lowered by hurting your opponent; stamina is the answer. Energy is only depleted when your opponent performs actions; running, striking, transitions, etc. all temporarily lower energy levels, and the lower your opponent’s energy level, the more vulnerable he is to submissions. We didn’t want fighters coming out and submitting people instantly, simply because they have a higher Submission Offense. We feel this would be very frustrating for players (and yes, there are fighters in the game with higher Submission Offense than Shogun and lower Submission Defense than Chuck Liddell, so there will be matchups where submissions are a bit easier than others). For example, Brock Lesnar has extremely high Strength and Standing Striking Offense, but even he can’t just one-punch KO everyone in the game at will. It just wouldn’t be fun, and we just don’t think it’d be fun with submissions, either.
My suggestion would be for submission fighters to pay close attention to what actions their opponents are performing to see when a submission opportunity presents itself. If you land a takedown and your opponent immediately starts spamming transition attempts or has just delivered a flurry of strikes and left himself gassed, this means he’s using up a lot of energy and thus will be vulnerable to a submission. However, if the opponent is playing a calmer strategy and is perhaps only attempting to protect himself while throwing carefully timed strikes, submitting isn’t going to be a very viable option.
Hope this helps!
ing believe it... I canceled my pre-order at Gamestop to get the game at best Buy, and both BB stores in my city are sold out.
