MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) Thread: UFC/Strikeforce

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You'd have to wonder what kind of toll making 170 would have for a 6'2, 37 year old Silva though. I wouldn't even want to watch that match up honestly. I think I would favor GSP. He is very technical and very hard to break. Even though he'd be the smaller guy in the fight, I can still see him landing some take downs. His stand up is also pretty decent. He's probably the only guy I've seen utilize the jab so effectively in MMA. His submission game is also not that bad. Not to say that he'd submit Anderson, but he could probably keep himself from getting submitted.

Even moving up to 205 there wouldn't be much for him to do there. I'm pretty sure he'd lose to Jon Jones. Machida vs Silva was a fight I wanted to see but I don't know anymore. It would be pretty interesting since Machida is a counter puncher but I can easily see Silva overwhelming him. Rashad vs Silva.. eh he's a good wrestler and he's got speed but I don't think he'd do it. He's already fought Henderson there which he could have pulled off back then but I doubt now.

I can pretty much agree and say that he will most likely choose the rest of his fights from here on out. I don't blame him because he is definitely getting older but I would rather him just retire instead of taking lame fights. Before Sonnen, the only time we saw him in trouble was vs. Henderson. I don't even want to think back on that Thales Leites fight -_-
 
Got my picks in for UFC on Fuel 4 tonight:

Weidman dec
Tehuna ko 1
Simpson ko 2 BOOST
Carmont dec
Dillashaw dec BOOST
Njokuani dec
Page sub 2 BOOST
Caraiso ko 1 BOOST
Craig dec
Guimaraes sub 1
Tamura dec
 
Here are my picks. I went back and forth on the main even but decided to settle on Munoz.


Munoz Dec
Te-Huna KO 2 boost
Simpson Dec
Carmont Dec
Dillashaw Sub 1 boost
Dos Anjos Sub 1
Page Dec
Cariaso Dec boost
Natal Dec
Guimaraes Sub 1 boost
Assuncao Sub 2
 
I don't get what you're saying Krak. Why wouldn't you just guess the round? At least you have a chance of getting points. It's not like they're deducted if you're wrong. And you have a 1 in 4 chance of being right. (if you count decision / no rounds as an option)
 
Silva use to make 170 but hes probably gotten too big over the years for it now.I think if it happens between him and GSP it'll probably be at 178 or 185 for Anderson's belt.170 could be possible though but I think Anderson would be too drained.

[quote name='technicalstylez']lol typically ppl do predictions for a game based on a point system, picking the correct fighter/outcome gets u x amount of points and picking the rd gets u bonus pts which usually helps in the event of a tie

refer to this: http://fantasy.sherdog.com/[/QUOTE]

Thanks!If you hadn't posted that I would have totally forgot to make my picks, been busy lately and with just coming off a UFC event sort of forgot about it.
 
Magiblaze, right now, I think I'd favor an emaciated Anderson Silva at 170 over Georges St-Pierre. St-Pierre's psyche is questionable. The Serra fight is negligible at this point, but he freaked out over his eye during the Shields fight, which was damaged from a jab. I think Silva could start to do his intimidation dance, break St-Pierre, and finish him with strikes.

[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']I know all about that, just saying the actual success rate of picking fighter + outcome + round is going to be super, super low.[/QUOTE]


In order to secure one's picks on the Sherdog Pick Em, round, method, and fighter must be chosen. Up until 148, I had been in the low 100s (out of near 7000 people), and the card before, I had been in the high 80s. It's not as difficult as you'd think. ;)


Here are my picks. I did a breakdown for fights where I felt it was worthwhile.

Weidman R2 TKO
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Munoz has been hurt by Grove, Okami, Maia, and straight-up KO-ed by Hamill, but has a lot of heart. I think this is the first UFC fight Weidman has not taken on short-notice. Weidman is better on the feet. But, Munoz probably has more power in his hands, though he lacks polish and can be plodding. Munoz has better wrestling credentials and is a grinder, but his wrestling, like his chin, is questionable. Munoz has willed himself out of SUB attempts, but it's still a hole in his game. Munoz is the biggest test in the younger career of Weidman. My biggest concern with Weidman is that he has a history of knee problems. It's crazy because Weidman is the underdog in the Sherdog Pick Em but a favorite in the books. Weidman has a crisp head kick—and I think he lands it and either latches on a SUB or finishes by TKO.

Te-Huna R1 TKO

-
This is Beltran's first cut to 205 from heavyweight. Te-Huna has shown good power in his hands. Pokrajac and Rosa have above-average chins and Te-Huna has hurt and finished both with punches. While Beltran has good power in his hands, after being straight-up KO-ed by Johnson, it's difficult to not say that Beltran is slipping. To quote Dana White, "One day you just wake up and you're old."

Simpson DEC

-
This is Simpson's first cut to 170 from 185. My biggest worry about Simpson is how his body will handle the cut. In terms of competition and skill, Simpson outclasses Robertson. Simpson should win. I think Simpson is too unpredictable to bet on him, though I've seen people say they have him in a parlay with Dillashaw.

Vemola R1 SUB

-
Carmont and Vemola have been equally unimpressive. This is Vemola's second fight at 185 from 205. Vemola has better wrestling credentials, though he was out-grappled by Markes. Carmont is taller with a greater reach, and maybe Carmont is able to keep Vemola at bay and outstrike him on the feet. But, I would assume Vemola is able to complete some takedowns and power his way to a SUB.

Dillashaw R1 SUB

Dos Anjos R2 SUB

Caceres DEC

Cariaso DEC

Craig DEC

Guimaraes R2 TKO

Assuncao R2 SUB
 
I'm #54 currently.Until tonight ruins me :D.Beltran did have one fight at 205 in his last fight but it wasn't with the UFC, was after they cut him from the Johnson loss.Still, going with Te-Huna too.
 
Magiblaze, impressive standing in the Pick Em. I will be joining you in the lower ranks soon enough. ;)

Shotgun: Thank ya kindly, sir! It feels good to be back, but I should have known better than to chase a dog like Vemola. Tonight, Carmont made a somewhat positive impression. Gonna take a bite out of his hype and see how much he bleeds. I'm more impressed with Cacares than I am with Carmont. And hats off to the 8-3. That's respectable. :)

Technical, Krakrabbit: I prefer Bisping-Weidman. Belcher is a wildcard. If things happen as they should, Silva demolishes the winner of Lombard-Boetsch and Weidman gains more experience building to a title shot. Florian may have compared Weidman to Jones, but Weidman's not yet ready. We'll see how he fights against Bisping. Bisping has solid TDD, kickboxing, and cardio. If Weidman finishes Bisping, then I suppose it's time for Silva to learn about Weidman.
 
[quote name='Chase']Magiblaze, impressive standing in the Pick Em. I will be joining you in the lower ranks soon enough. ;)

Shotgun: Thank ya kindly, sir! It feels good to be back, but I should have known better than to chase a dog like Vemola. Tonight, Carmont made a somewhat positive impression. Gonna take a bite out of his hype and see how much he bleeds. I'm more impressed with Cacares than I am with Carmont. And hats off to the 8-3. That's respectable. :)

Technical, Krakrabbit: I prefer Bisping-Weidman. Belcher is a wildcard. If things happen as they should, Silva demolishes the winner of Lombard-Boetsch and Weidman gains more experience building to a title shot. Florian may have compared Weidman to Jones, but Weidman's not yet ready. We'll see how he fights against Bisping. Bisping has solid TDD, kickboxing, and cardio. If Weidman finishes Bisping, then I suppose it's time for Silva to learn about Weidman.[/QUOTE]

Weidman will have a challenge in Bisping because of the takedown defense, but on a stats standpoint it doens't make much sense. A guy who is undefeated in the UFC against a guy who just lost to the #1 contender (at the time) in Sonnen? Doesn't sound right.
 
Holy crap did Munoz get manhandled. Weidman owned him from the ground, to that vicious elbow.

Don't think hes ready for title shot do. Him fighting Bisping makes sense only because what else is left? lol.
 
well dana said bisping weidman is official. weidman reminds me of cain pre lesnar fight (relatively green in mma but killing it in the ufc). an interesting stat someone on sherdog pointed out is that weidman already has 2 top 10 victories in his 5 fight ufc career which is the same as bisping/belcher's careers combined.
gonna be interesting to see how bisping avoids the takedown, especially coming off the knee surgery.

new tuf coaches- carwin - roy nelson

international (aus vs uk) - george sot vs ross pearson

[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']Weidman will have a challenge in Bisping because of the takedown defense, but on a stats standpoint it doens't make much sense. A guy who is undefeated in the UFC against a guy who just lost to the #1 contender (at the time) in Sonnen? Doesn't sound right.[/QUOTE]
 
[quote name='technicalstylez']well dana said bisping weidman is official. weidman reminds me of cain pre lesnar fight (relatively green in mma but killing it in the ufc). an interesting stat someone on sherdog pointed out is that weidman already has 2 top 10 victories in his 5 fight ufc career which is the same as bisping/belcher's careers combined.
gonna be interesting to see how bisping avoids the takedown, especially coming off the knee surgery.

new tuf coaches- carwin - roy nelson

international (aus vs uk) - george sot vs ross pearson[/QUOTE]

I have a feeling Big Country will secure a takedown and grind away at Carwin's gastank with the sub attempts. Add to that Carwin's fresh off back surgery along with neck surgery prior to that and he's going to be the dog in the fight.
 
[quote name='Chase']Magiblaze, impressive standing in the Pick Em. I will be joining you in the lower ranks soon enough. ;)[/QUOTE]

I got lucky and managed to hold onto/improve my spot.Now at #41 :lol:.Until this next event screws me over that is.

[quote name='Chase']

Belcher is a wildcard.[/QUOTE]
Thats how I view the guy, hes up there and a top notch guy but hes a bit wild and unsure what he'll do.Heavily underrated for a long time and in the loop just they're unsure on how to book em.
 
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Nice! Have you, or has anyone, won an iPad from the Pick Em? I've yet to rank first for a card—and I have predicted perfect cards, scored all my boosts, but messed up with a round or method. It seems like the top 200 is pretty competitive.

And that's how I view Belcher. Upper-tier guy but somewhat foreign. He has been injured so often that I forgot how much talent he possesses. Since Bisping-Weidman seems like a lock, and Silva is likely to face the winner of Boetsch-Lombard, I think Belcher should fight Belfort. Belfort-Silva 2 would do big numbers in Brazil, and it would be easy to sell because those two have legitimate beef, but Belfort doesn't deserve a title shot.

How it will probably play out: Lombard out-grapples Boetsch to a UD, Weidman embarrasses Bisping by SUB, Silva decimates Lombard with a TKO victory. From there, depending on fight dates, Weidman challenges Silva or fights the winner of Belcher-Belfort (which should be Belcher).

I honestly think Carwin stops Nelson in R2 or R3. Surgery doesn't always mean a fighter will return weakened. A good example is Belcher, who surprisingly out-grappled and out-powered Paul Harris. (However, Palhares does have questionable mental stability.) Nelson is tough, like Carwin, but Carwin is a living embodiment of The Hulk. (Hence his informal nickname of "Hulk Hands.") Nelson has better technique on the feet and grappling, but Carwin has better wrestling and top control. Just a preliminary, off-the-cuff assessment, so we'll see what I think after tape study.

Speaking of tape study, Strikeforce is this weekend.

http://www.sherdog.com/events/Strikeforce-Rockhold-vs-Kennedy-22305

That's a nice card. I hope Strikeforce never goes away because their cards are so easy to predict. It's easy money.

Oh, and Bisping has some choice words for the upper-tier of 185.

http://www.mmamania.com/2012/7/12/3155766/michael-bisping-calls-out-chris-weidman-mark-munoz

Things like "Fat Munoz" and other titillating tidbits.
 
belcher out grappled palhares because he trained w/ dean lister for the fight. he was 1 step ahead of palhares the whole time they were on the ground as he knew what was coming and how to counter it.

i see these match ups happening based on whats been announced so far

bisping/weidman for #1 contender/title shot confirmed by dana

boetsch/lombard winner fights winner of

belcher/vitor

wand/chael- both coming off a loss, already some bad blood/easy to promote
 
ya he doesnt train w/ dean on a regular basis, he just brought him in to train for his fight with palhares.

gonna be interesting to see how palhares does against okami at 150. speaking of which, cowboy/guillard just got added to the card.

annnd..my idea of belcher/vitor seems to be in the works as indicated by malki kawa.

ps thank god rockhold made weight on the 2nd attempt. fighters failing to make weight for title fights is bullshit.

[quote name='Thekrakrabbit']I wasn't aware that Belcher trains with the Boogeyman. No better training for leg locks then going up with Dean Lister.[/QUOTE]
 
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Even with a tough cut, I heavily favor Rockhold over Kennedy. Kennedy may be stronger, but his SS offense and defense is rudimentary. He is plodding, tentative, and keeps his chin in the air. His TD offense can be slightly above-average but he doesn't work strikes to set-up a TD. Rockhold is simply a better fighter—in every aspect. The only possible danger from Kennedy is his GG offense. His strength allows him slighty above-average top control in his GG, and he's slightly above-average with his SUB offense if he attains back control.


A few things.

1. Guillard-Cerrone is set for UFC 150 in Denver.

2. Sonnen is considering a move back to 205.

3. Lots of people are upset that we only now found out that Griffin received a TRT TUE for his fight against Ortiz.


Somewhat quickly: As I've said numerous times, TRT can only do so much. Look at Mir and Griffin, even Sonnen. Griffin looked awful against Ortiz and Mir had an embarrassing performance against Dos Santos. Sonnen shows strength but his mental stability is questionable. TRT can't make up for a lack of skills—nor can it repair broken confidence. I'm interested to know how many fighters use TRT and still suck. I bet the number of fighters—in the UFC—who use TRT and still suck doubles the number of fighters who use TRT and have had significant success. And I think that number—at least—triples outside of the UFC.
 
[quote name='Chase']
Somewhat quickly: As I've said numerous times, TRT can only do so much. Look at Mir and Griffin, even Sonnen. Griffin looked awful against Ortiz and Mir has looked questionable for years. Sonnen shows strength but his mental stability is questionable. TRT can't make up for the lack of skills—nor can it repair broken confidence. I'm interested to know how many fighters use TRT and still suck. I bet the number of fighters, in the UFC, who use TRT and still suck doubles the number of fighters who use TRT and have had significant success. And I think that number at least triples outside of the UFC.[/QUOTE]

its not magic sauce. Id imagine you see guys who arent amazing on trt more as theyre looking for anything to get them where theyre not.

You dont see elite guys, exception hendo, applying for trt exemptions.
 
Agree with everything that Chase said about Rockhold-Kennedy. Do you think he'll be able to finish Kennedy?


Also, am I the only one that thinks Woodley has more then a decent chance to beat Marquardt? He hasen't fought since March of 2011, hes fighting at 170 for the very first time, and Woodley, while not the most exciting fighter to watch, has a style that can really frustrate Marquardt.
 
Never came in first or won an Ipad :(.


[quote name='shotgunshine']Agree with everything that Chase said about Rockhold-Kennedy. Do you think he'll be able to finish Kennedy?


Also, am I the only one that thinks Woodley has more then a decent chance to beat Marquardt? He hasen't fought since March of 2011, hes fighting at 170 for the very first time, and Woodley, while not the most exciting fighter to watch, has a style that can really frustrate Marquardt.[/QUOTE]
Certainly could.I don't like Kennedy in any real situation where hes forced standing.Seems a little akaward if he can't get the clinch or take it to the ground.I think I'm going to go with a decision pick though.

Seems 50/50ish, can't go too far wrong picking either guy.Marquardt can suffer at times from big strong wrestlers with good sub defense.I'm slightly sliding with Marquardt just because I think he'll be able to win the stand for and keep it there for at least a good while and don't like Woodley's cardio by the end of a 3 rounder.Then again its Marquardt's first fight to actually take place at 170 so who knows about how his cardio will hold up.
 
Yeah, that is true. I forgot he did used to fight at that weight...but it has been a while for him...we'll see how he does tonight.
 
I forget this thread existed, glad to see it's active. I will be watching the Strikeforce tonight. It's been ages since Nate fought, will be interesting to see what happens.
 
Marquardt looked OK at the weigh-ins but he's going to be fighting a guy who is going to try and grind on him for 5 rounds. If Nate's cardio isn't shot because of dropping the weight (he is pretty big after all), 5 rounds favors him for a late round stoppage.
 
Definitely a tough fight for Stann, Tech. Right now, I favor Bisping.

I like that this thread has become more active in the last month. Good job, everyone.

—

My honest-to-goodness picks for the Rockhold-Kennedy card. If anyone wants to know my bets, feel free to ask on Twitter. (Otherwise, I'll probably miss the requests.)

High DEC
Duarte DEC
Mein SUB R2
Masvidal TKO R1
Healy SUB R1
Larkin DEC
Jardine TKO R1
Marquardt SUB R3
Rockhold SUB R3

A few, short notes.

I already said my piece on Rockhold-Kennedy.

Marquardt has faced better competition—and fought better wrestlers—than Woodley. The last person to stop Marquardt is Anderson Silva. You may have heard of him. Marquardt's only other stoppage losses happened by SUB in his early years as a fighter. His grappling has improved a ton since then. Woodley has slightly above-average wrestling, average SS, and questionable cardio.

Like the Couture progeny in the undercard, I think Gracie is questionable. Of course, his GG and SUB game is good—but his SS looks average—and could pass for below-average. His only reputable opponent, Muhammed Lawal, resulted in a KO loss. (Yes, the punch landed in a grey between legal and illegal, but it's somewhat irrelevant.) Jardine is a crapshoot simply because of his age (36) and the amount of wear he has acquired in his 11-year career. His most recent loss is to a UFC-ready Rockhold. And even though he would have lost a 29-28 decision to a highly-regarded Mousasi if Mousasi had not received a point deduction, Jardine still kept it competitive on the feet. One would assume Jardine is being sacrificed to Gracie to add a popular name under his win column—but I think the fight is a bit more competitive than most would assume.
 
just wanna point out tonights marquardt will be clean/without trt. i know its not magic sauce but it will be interesting to see how mentally dependent he was on the treatment and how it affected his self confidence. marquardt has a history of using (peds in pancrase and ufc, then trt) so hopefully tonight he can show us (and more importantly himself) that he can still compete with the best of them without the use of peds.
 
props to tonights winners, some hard fought victories for sure.
anyone else catch the khan/garcia fight? holy shit.
i was watching both events side by side.. fun night.

marquardt looked great tonight, i was hoping for a finish on par with his slaughter of gouveia and he delivered. rockhold didn't impress me tonight but jardine's sub defense sure did.
 
I didn't watch Khan-Garcia—but I did find out that my Garcia bet hit.

...Which is nice because I had a Garcia-Healy-Rockhold parlay at good plus-money.

My Rockhold-Marquardt parlay at plus-money paid as well. I had a decent-sized bet for "Rockhold wins inside the distance," which I lost. And I should have known better than to bet on Jardine. Just a stupid thing to do. He has the FIGHT IQ of a fetus. However, overall, I scored a good profit tonight. I'm incredibly thankful.

How did everyone do?

As for picks, I went 7 for 9 but scored all my boosts.
 
Jardine's submission defense was insanely impressive tonight. He still is horribly shot and has nothing left, but his grappling is up to par to say the least. Gracie did not look that much improved on the feet though, getting tired and relying on the same old jab + clinch to succeed.
 
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