[quote name='Strell']It's not like the launch of a new console at all. A new console affords a dramatic shift against its former iteration, and usually shows up with a bevy of support to take advantage of it. It helps that console launches are usually 4-5 years apart from each other, where as handhelds can be cycled in or out within the space of two years.
Nintendo hasn't announced any DSi specific games outside of the DSiware. Nor have any other third party developers. That alone negates comparing this to a DSi.
Again, what you're going to see most likely is a hybrid DS/DSi game with some simple unlockables. It'll be a long while before some big DSi-only game gets announced and released.
Nintendo gains the most from games selling on the DSi. A third party making a game isn't going to overlook the larger userbase, since they are going to pay royalties to Nintendo either way. It makes no sense for them to gun for a fraction-sized userbase when they are still paying dues to Nintendo directly. Even if you got 100% of the DSi crowd to buy your game, you'd probably have doubled that by making it compatible with the DS in the first place.
You're saying that a developer/publisher would get a lot of exposure by making a DSi only game, as if the usual public pays close enough attention to such things. No. The public at large buys usually what is advertised to them, what is familiar to them (such as a licensed move tie-in), or what is cheapest. They don't care about a game taking advantage of the increased tech the DSi has unless it is absolutely a killer app.
And no developer is going to waste time on that possibility when they can gun for 20x the userbase. It makes no sense to put money down on some "let's get our name out there!" gambit.
You have to remember most people couldn't tell you who makes what mascot/franchise games, refers to any handheld as "a Nintendo" or "a Gameboy," and generally isn't interested in the industry itself.
This whole idea that Nintendo is going to drop their guns and go after the DSi market only isn't correct. They just announced a new DS Zelda. If Nintendo were serious about making the DSi the next big thing RIGHT NOW, they'd make it DSi only. Yeah they might even secretly want the DSi to be the next big thing, but nothing they've done implies that at all, outside of removing the GBA slot, which is really more of a "we need to move forward with DS titles as a whole" mentality than anything else.[/quote]
It sure looks and feels like the launch of a new system. New upgraded hardware, new abilities, new games, hype, etc. It's introduction comes at the normal progression for a new hardware release. I think the reason we don't see a big DSi game yet is since its not a new system entirely, publishers will wait a little longer, plus they're also going to start with DSIWare games and DSi games that work with the cameras but still work on regular DS/DSL first.
I'd be very surprised to not see DSi exclusive games appearing late 09 early 10 as I said before. It makes sense for publishers to target some games specifically to DSi, even with the smaller userbase, because DSi owners will be looking for a game that takes advantage of their hardware.
If the DSi userbase reaches around 7 million as you claimed yourself by the end of the year, it could make sense to try and get a larger tie ratio among those who own a DSi than to launch another regular DS game among all the competition on DS. You also say even if they got 100%, so you're saying they could get 7 million on DSi, but if they made it on DS they could get 14 million. I disagree with that. DSi's CPU & RAM allow for game experiences not possible on DS/DSL. That combined with users wanting the newest/greatest possible on their hardware and publishers wanting to stake it out among a less competitive environment will contribute to DSi only games being made within a year.
The public who is going to buy the DSi earliest, is the more knowledgeable and spending type of gamer... especially when the DSL will still be available for purchase. Those less knowledgeable and less caring about the type of games available will opt for the cheaper DSL. Those in the know will get the DSi.
It's not always 20x the userbase. Certain games don't appeal to a large part of that userbase. The DS/DSL demographic is very broad and diverse. And as I said some types of DSi games will not be possible on DSL, games that will require the extra processing power and memory. It's not lets get our name out there. It's lets give this new userbase something they can't find anywhere else. It's lets grab this new userbase before someone else does.
I did not and would not say Nintendo would drop the DS market for the DSi only. That would be incredibly stupid. I am simply saying that there will be DSi only games that those of us who recently bought a DSL won't be able to play. I am also saying this is the future of gaming, it's not Nintendo only who will do this type of thing with their hardware.
DSIWare also goes against your saying that Nintendo doesn't want DSi to be the next big thing.